Analysis of the Modi-Xi Meeting in Tianjin

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping met at the sidelines of the SCO summit in Tianjin today. This is Modi’s first visit to China in seven years.

I didn’t have any big expectations in terms of major agreements that would emerge. The two sides are engaged in a process of gradual improvement of the relationship, which has been underway since October last year. The two sides issued fairly detailed readouts after the meeting. There are some significant commonalities in the readouts, along with substantive differences. Let me put forth my takeaways before detailing the two readouts.

• First, both sides believe that there has been positive progress since the Kazan meeting. So that’s a good thing.

• Second, the Chinese readout called for the two sides to grasp that they are partners and not rivals, development opportunities for each other and not threats. The Indian readout echoed this language saying that the two leaders “reaffirmed that the two countries were development partners and not rivals.” This was not something that the Indian readout had said after Kazan. So, this is the Indian side articulating a strategic conception that would be appreciated by Beijing. That said, the Indian side also specified its framework of the three mutuals: “mutual respect, mutual interest and mutual sensitivity” as the “basis” for a “stable relationship”.

• Third, another interesting bit in this context is the Indian readout specifically saying: “Prime Minister noted that India and China both pursue strategic autonomy, and their relations should not be seen through a third country lens.” It is good that Delhi is publicly making this point to the Chinese. Beijing needs to begin viewing India for India’s sake, and not via DC-tinted glasses.

• Fourth, the Chinese readout calls on the two sides to “focus on development as their greatest common denominator”. The Indian readout does not echo this. But it does say that “they recognized the role of their two economies to stabilize world trade” and that the two sides “underlined the need to proceed from a political and strategic direction to expand bilateral trade and investment ties and reduce trade deficit.” This is New Delhi telling Beijing that it is keen to play ball on economic issues, particularly given the current global circumstances. But Beijing will have to move ahead to address the massive trade deficit it enjoys. This creates an opening for the two sides to work together, but it stops short of something substantive being agreed. For instance, go back to October 2019, during the second “informal summit” then, the two sides had announced that they would set up a high-level mechanism headed by finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman and then vice-premier Hu Chunhua to look at trade, investment and services. The mechanism never met owing to the pandemic and then border clashes. But nothing akin as emerged from this current meeting.

• Fifth, both readouts talk about the need to maintain peace and tranquility in the border areas. But the Chinese view is that one must “not let the border issue define the overall China-India relationship.” The Indian readout, on the other hand, says: “Prime Minister underlined the importance of peace and tranquility on the border areas for continued development of bilateral relations.” There’s clear daylight between these two points of view, and one must not underestimate how deeply this difference fuels political mistrust. The Indian readout also talked about the need for a solution to the boundary issue from a “political perspective of their overall bilateral relations and the long-term interests of the two peoples.” Nothing about the resolution of the issue is referenced in the Chinese readout. So this tells you something about Beijing’s priorities.

• Sixth, the Chinese readout talks about the need to “jointly promote a multipolar world”; the Indian readout talks about the need to build a “multipolar world and a multi-polar Asia”. This is a fundamental, structural difference between the two sides, which is the most difficult to reconcile. All the allusions to a tango between the dragon and elephant mean little when Beijing believes that the asymmetry it enjoys means it does not need to accommodate India’s rise as a major power.

• Seventh, the Indian readout says that the “two leaders deemed it necessary to expand common ground on bilateral, regional, and global issues and challenges, like terrorism and fair trade in multilateral platforms.” The Chinese readout makes no reference to the issue of terrorism, which again is a significant faultline between the two sides.

• Finally, there’s no big agreement out of this meeting, as far as the reporting indicates. The areas where immediate movement is likely, however, are direct flights and visa facilitation. No clear outcomes announced, nevertheless.

Let’s begin with the readouts from the meeting between Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The Chinese readout says:

Xi Jinping pointed out that last year’s successful meeting in Kazan marked the restart of China-India relations, with bilateral exchanges and cooperation making continuous progress. China and India are two great ancient Eastern civilisations, the two most populous countries in the world, and important members of the Global South, shouldering the important responsibility of benefiting the two peoples, promoting solidarity and revitalisation of developing countries, and advancing the progress of human society. China and India should become neighbours on good terms and partners helping each other succeed. A ‘cooperative pas de deux of the dragon and the elephant’ should be the right choice for the two countries. 习近平指出，去年我们在喀山成功会晤，中印关系重启再出发，两国交往合作不断取得新进展。中国和印度是两大东方文明古国，是世界上人口最多的两个国家，也是全球南方重要成员，肩负着造福两国人民、促进发展中国家团结振兴、推动人类社会进步的重要责任。做睦邻友好的朋友、相互成就的伙伴，实现“龙象共舞”，应当是中印双方的正确选择.

Xi Jinping emphasised that this year is the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and India. Both sides must view and handle China-India relations from a strategic height and a long-term perspective, and through the Tianjin meeting further elevate them, promoting the sustained, healthy, and stable development of bilateral relations.

• First, the two sides should strengthen strategic communication and deepen mutual trust. As long as we firmly grasp the major direction that they are partners and not rivals, development opportunities for each other and not threats, China-India relations will flourish and move forward steadily.

• Second, the two sides should expand exchanges and cooperation to achieve mutual benefit and win-win results. China and India are both at a critical stage of development and revitalisation. The two sides should focus on development as their greatest common denominator, supporting, promoting, and achieving mutual success.

• Third, the two sides should accommodate each other’s concerns and uphold harmonious coexistence. The Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, advocated by the older generation of Chinese and Indian leaders over 70 years ago, must be cherished and promoted. It is necessary to work together to maintain peace and tranquility in the border areas and not let the border issue define the overall China-India relationship.

• Fourth, the two sides must strengthen multilateral cooperation and safeguard common interests. It is necessary to jointly demonstrate our historical responsibility, uphold multilateralism, strengthen communication and cooperation on major international and regional issues, uphold international fairness and justice, and jointly promote a multipolar world and democratisation of international relations, making due contributions to maintaining peace and prosperity in Asia and beyond.

习近平强调，今年是中印建交75周年。双方要从战略高度和长远角度看待和处理中印关系，通过天津会晤再提升，推动两国关系持续健康稳定发展。首先要加强战略沟通，深化彼此互信。只要把准了是合作伙伴而不是对手、互为发展机遇而不是威胁这个大方向，中印关系就能纲举目张、行稳致远。二要扩大交往合作，实现互利共赢。中印都处在发展振兴的关键阶段，应该聚焦发展这个最大公约数，相互支持、相互促进、相互成就。三要照顾彼此关切，坚持和睦相处。中印两国老一辈领导人70多年前倡导的和平共处五项原则，需要珍视和弘扬。要合力维护边境地区和平安宁，不要让边界问题定义整体中印关系。四要加强多边协作，维护共同利益。要共同展现历史担当，坚持多边主义，加强在重大国际和地区问题上的沟通和协作，捍卫国际公平正义，携手推动世界多极化和国际关系民主化，为维护亚洲乃至世界和平和繁荣作出应有贡献。

As per the Chinese readout, Modi said that since the Kazan meeting, India-China relations have returned to a positive track, the border remains peaceful and stable, and direct flights are about to resume. These achievements will not only benefit the people of both countries but also the world. India and China are partners and not rivals, with far more consensus than differences; India is willing to view and develop bilateral relations from a long-term perspective. Faced with high uncertainty in the global economy, it is crucial for India and China, as important global economies, to strengthen cooperation. India is willing to work with China to seek a fair, reasonable, and mutually acceptable solution to the border issue. Both India and China adhere to strategic autonomy and independent diplomacy, bilateral relations are not influenced by third parties, and cooperation between the two countries will make the 21st century truly become the Asian century. Both sides working hand-in-hand will strengthen the force of multilateralism in international affairs. He congratulated China on its successful assumption of the rotating presidency of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and wished the Tianjin Summit a complete success. 莫迪表示，我同习近平主席喀山会晤为印中关系发展指明方向，印中关系重回积极轨道，边境保持和平稳定，即将恢复直航，这些成果不仅惠及印中两国人民，也有利于世界。印中是伙伴而不是对手，共识远大于分歧，印方愿从长远角度看待和发展两国关系。面对世界经济高度不确定性，印中作为全球重要经济体，加强合作十分重要。印方愿同中方寻求公平合理、双方都能接受的边界问题解决方案。印中都坚持战略自主和独立外交，两国关系不受第三方影响，两国合作将使21世纪真正成为亚洲世纪，双方携手将在国际事务中增强多边主义的力量。祝贺中国成功担任上海合作组织轮值主席国，预祝天津峰会圆满成功.

The Indian readout says:

“Both leaders welcomed the positive momentum and steady progress in bilateral relations since their last meeting in Kazan in October 2024. They reaffirmed that the two countries were development partners and not rivals, and that their differences should not turn into disputes. A stable relationship and cooperation between India and China and their 2.8 billion peoples on the basis of mutual respect, mutual interest and mutual sensitivity are necessary for the growth and development of the two countries, as well as for a multipolar world and a multi-polar Asia befitting the trends of the 21st century.

Prime Minister underlined the importance of peace and tranquility on the border areas for continued development of bilateral relations. The two leaders noted with satisfaction the successful disengagement last year and the maintenance of peace and tranquility along the border areas since then. They expressed commitment to a fair, reasonable, and mutually acceptable resolution of the boundary question proceeding from the political perspective of their overall bilateral relations and the long-term interests of the two peoples. They recognized the important decisions taken by the two Special Representatives in their Talks earlier this month, and agreed to further support their efforts.

The two leaders noted the need to strengthen people-to-people ties through direct flights and visa facilitation, building on the resumption of Kailash Manasarovar Yatra and tourist visa. On economic and trade relations, they recognized the role of their two economies to stabilize world trade. They underlined the need to proceed from a political and strategic direction to expand bilateral trade and investment ties and reduce trade deficit.

Prime Minister noted that India and China both pursue strategic autonomy, and their relations should not be seen through a third country lens. The two leaders deemed it necessary to expand common ground on bilateral, regional, and global issues and challenges, like terrorism and fair trade in multilateral platforms.

Prime Minister expressed support for China’s Presidency of the SCO and the Summit in Tianjin. He also invited President Xi to the BRICS Summit that India will be hosting in 2026. President Xi thanked Prime Minister for the invitation and offered China’s support to India's BRICS Presidency.

Prime Minister also had a meeting with Mr. Cai Qi, Member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Communist Party of China. Prime Minister shared with Mr. Cai his vision for bilateral relations and sought his support to realize the vision of the two leaders. Mr. Cai reiterated the Chinese side's desire to expand bilateral exchanges and further improve relations in line with the consensus reached between the two leaders.”