And then there was one: Thoughts on Zhang Youxia's Purge

The bombshell news that CMC Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia has reportedly been placed under investigation is truly remarkable. The CMC, China’s highest military decision-making body, is now effectively at its thinnest, with just one other member besides Xi Jinping. I am still processing the implications and reading analysts’ assessments, but based on what we know so far:

1. Zhang has reportedly been placed under investigation for “serious violations of discipline and law.”

2. South China Morning Post’s reporting suggests the probe involves failures to rein in close associates, family members, and relatives, as well as shortcomings in identifying and flagging problems in Party leadership at an early stage.

3. One line of assessment links this to corruption tied to capability-building, arguing that the purge reflects performance failures as the PLA moves toward its centenary in 2027. In this view, Zhang’s leadership did not deliver the results demanded.

4. Another perspective is more overtly political. Following the purge of He Weidong and Miao Hua, which weakened or destroyed their factional networks within the PLA, Zhang may have emerged as the only remaining dominant power centre. From Xi’s standpoint, a single entrenched faction, even one led by a long-time ally, would be unacceptable if it created a potential counterweight to his authority.

I am still thinking this through. Information remains scarce. But here a few tentative thoughts:

1. We may be at a tipping point in Chinese elite politics under Xi Jinping. The Zhang–Xi relationship was as close as it gets within CPC networks; even their fathers were close. Purging someone who remained in place after the 20th Party Congress in October 2022, despite age and tenure norms, signals that even the deepest personal and political ties no longer guarantee security.

2. I find it hard to accept that this is only about performance or capability development. These are human relationships built over decades. One does not so casually discard a lifelong confidant, destroying his legacy and family, purely on technocratic grounds. This looks far more like power politics than performance management. In that light, reports over the past year suggesting a factional pushback led by Zhang against Xi deserve renewed scrutiny. They may have been exaggerated, but it is increasingly difficult to dismiss the possibility that there was at least a kernel of truth.

3. If leaders of dominant factions across the PLA are being purged, the downstream effects on the broader institutional network will be significant. This inevitably raises serious questions about the PLA’s cohesion and combat capability. It also begs a simple question that who, at any level, can still feel secure?

4. Finally, does Xi trust anyone at all? Or, perhaps more accurately, can he trust anyone at all? Whenever the leadership transition from Xi eventually occurs, it is shaping up to be an exceptionally rough ride.