Fourth Plenum Preview in the People's Daily

Hi folks,

I hope everyone’s well. It’s been a long couple of weeks of traveling, which has meant that I’ve been inconsistent with the newsletter. The travels included a brief but rather productive visit to China for the High-level Track II Dialogue between India and China hosted by MP-IDSA and Sichuan University in Chengdu. This was an important activity marking the 75th anniversary of bilateral ties. In due time, I shall write about my takeaways from this visit.

Back to the newsletter, things should get back on track now onward. In today’s edition, I am covering the long Xinhua piece on the front page of the People’s Daily, which is a preview of what one can expect from the Fourth Plenum, which begins today.

There are some useful signals of continuity in economic policy that the piece offers. It also underscores the significance of Xi’s leadership. The plenum is coming amid an several changes also expected when it comes to personnel in the Central Committee. The armed forces also saw clarifications on several leaders being sacked. So, the plenum should end with some interesting outcomes in all these regard.

Anyway, as you read, I’d also like to wish you a very happy Diwali! May the light of truth and happiness always shine on you.

The article says:

“The meeting will review the ‘Proposal of the CPC Central Committee on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development,’ which will chart a blueprint for China’s development over the next five years. From 2021 to 2025, the 14th FYP period marks the first five years after China has fully built a moderately prosperous society and achieved its first centenary goal, capitalizing on the momentum to embark on a new journey of comprehensively building a modern socialist country and marching toward its second centenary goal. With concerted efforts across the country and overcoming difficulties together, China’s economic and social development has achieved new pioneering progress, transformative breakthroughs, and historic accomplishments. From 2026 to 2030, centered on comprehensively advancing China’s development and national rejuvenation through Chinese-style modernisation, the 15th FYP period is a crucial stage for consolidating the foundation for basically realising socialist modernisation and making all-out efforts toward that goal.” 会议将审议《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》，为未来五年中国发展擘画蓝图。2021年—2025年，“十四五”时期是我国全面建成小康社会、实现第一个百年奋斗目标之后，乘势而上开启全面建设社会主义现代化国家新征程、向第二个百年奋斗目标进军的第一个五年。全国上下勠力同心、攻坚克难，我国经济社会发展取得新的开创性进展、突破性变革、历史性成就。2026年—2030年，围绕以中国式现代化全面推进强国建设、民族复兴伟业，“十五五”时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期.

As the 14th FYP draws to a close, the construction of the ‘two networks’ has drawn particular attention: One is the national comprehensive three-dimensional transportation network, with over 90% of the main framework of ‘six axes, seven corridors, and eight channels” completed; the other is the national water network, which is expected to reach a coverage rate of 80.3% by the end of 2025. “十四五”规划收官之际，“两张网”的建设格外引人关注：一张是国家综合立体交通网，“6轴7廊8通道”主骨架建成率超过90%；一张是国家水网，2025年底覆盖率预计达到80.3%.

“China’s total economic output successively surpassed the thresholds of 110 trillion yuan, 120 trillion yuan, and 130 trillion yuan, and is expected to reach around 140 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5%. The per capita GDP has exceeded $13,000 for two consecutive years, and China’s annual average contribution to global economic growth has remained around 30%...This era has surged with innovative vitality: among the 102 major projects identified in the 14th FYP all have made smooth progress. China has reached one innovation peak after another in ‘major national technological equipment,’ with R&D investment intensity rising to 2.69%, becoming the first country in the world to surpass 4 million valid domestic invention patents...this has painted a picture of Beautiful China: it has achieved the world’s largest increase in greenery, raising forest coverage to over 25%; the proportion of days with good air quality in cities at the prefecture level and above has stabilised at around 87%; the main streams of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers have both reached Class II water quality standards; installed capacity of new energy power generation has historically surpassed that of thermal power, forming the world’s largest clean energy generation system...this answer sheet is imbued with the well-being of the people: over 12 million new urban jobs have been created annually; average life expectancy has risen to 79 years; the world’s largest education, social security, and healthcare systems have been built; urban–rural and regional coordinated development has made remarkable progress; and the common prosperity of all the people has been advancing steadily, step by step...over these five years, hundreds of millions of people have forged ahead with determination, and the world has witnessed one brilliant moment after another in the new era of China…” 这段征程激励奋进步伐：中国经济总量接连跨越110万亿元、120万亿元、130万亿元台阶，预计将于2025年底达到140万亿元左右，4年平均增长5.5%，人均国内生产总值连续两年超过1.3万美元，中国对世界经济增长的年均贡献率保持在30%左右……这个时代奔涌创新活力：“十四五”规划确定的102项重大工程进展顺利，中国站上一个又一个“大国重器”创新制高点，研发投入强度提高到2.69%，成为世界上首个国内有效发明专利数量突破400万件的国家……这幅图景绘就美丽中国：“增绿”全球最多，森林覆盖率提高到25%以上；地级及以上城市空气质量优良天数比例稳定在87%左右；长江、黄河干流全线达到二类水质标准；新能源发电装机规模历史性超过火电，建成全球最大清洁发电体系……这张答卷浸透民生福祉：每年城镇新增就业1200万人以上，人均预期寿命提高到79岁，建成世界上规模最大的教育体系、社会保障体系、医疗卫生体系，城乡区域协调发展进展显著，全体人民共同富裕一步一个脚印向前推进……五年间，亿万人民砥砺奋进，世界见证新时代中国一个又一个高光时刻：

A lot more follows this, talking about the achievements of the past five years. A lot of it also contains praise for Xi’s leadership and the scientific theory that has guided China.

This next bit is important:

“This has been five years of responding to changing circumstances and opening up new prospects amid storms and challenges. Strengthening export controls on rare earth–related items, implementing export controls on items such as superhard materials, and imposing special port service fees on US ships… In recent days, in response to American pressure, China has introduced a series of measures. If you want to talk, the door is wide open; if you want to fight, we will see it through to the end. Observers have noted that China’s calmer and more resilient response demonstrates firmer confidence and greater strength. Critical moments always call for crucial decisions. Over the past five years, facing various risks, challenges, and uncertainties, the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core has repeatedly steered the ship of China at critical moments, guiding it through turbulent waves. Facing the sudden outbreak of a once-in-a-century pandemic, decisions were made scientifically in accordance with the evolving situation, giving full play to the institutional advantage of socialism in concentrating strength to accomplish major undertakings, effectively coordinating epidemic prevention and control with economic and social development; facing continuously escalating external suppression and containment, China focused its strength on managing its own affairs well, adhering to the principle of basing the country’s and the nation’s development on its own strength; facing the difficulties and doubts encountered in the development of the private economy, General Secretary Xi Jinping attended a symposium with private enterprises and delivered an important speech, profoundly elaborating on a series of fundamental and directional issues concerning the development of the private economy; targeting the risks of people returning to or falling into poverty, unrelenting efforts have been made to consolidate and expand the achievements of poverty alleviation, firmly safeguarding the bottom line of preventing large-scale return to or incidence of poverty…” 这是在风雨挑战中应变局开新局的五年。加强稀土相关物项出口管制、对超硬材料等相关物项实施出口管制、对美船舶收取船舶特别港务费……近期，针对美方施压，中国出台一系列措施。谈，大门敞开；打，奉陪到底。有观察人士指出，中国更加沉稳坚韧的应对，展现出更坚实的底气和更强大的力量。关键时刻必有关键抉择。五年间，直面各种风险挑战和不确定性，以习近平同志为核心的党中央一次次在紧要关头把舵领航，引领中国号巨轮穿越惊涛骇浪。面对突如其来的世纪疫情，因时因势、科学决策，充分发挥社会主义集中力量办大事的制度优势，有效统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展；面对不断升级的外部打压遏制，集中力量办好自己的事，坚持把国家和民族发展放在自己力量的基点上；面对民营经济发展遇到的困难困惑，习近平总书记出席民营企业座谈会并发表重要讲话，深刻阐明事关民营经济发展的一系列根本性、方向性问题；针对返贫致贫风险，毫不松懈巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果，长久守牢不发生规模性返贫致贫底线…

“In the second and third quarters of 2024, the growth rates of major economic indicators in China declined, market expectations weakened, and sentiments of concern spread at home and abroad. On September 26 of that year, a meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee deployed a package of incremental policies, hailed as ‘a milestone action in macroeconomic regulation’. Since the beginning of this year, macro policies have continued to exert force and have been strengthened at appropriate times, forming a ‘combination punch’ of policies; vigorous efforts have been made to boost consumption and improve investment efficiency, expanding domestic demand in an all-round way; the construction of a unified national market has been advanced in depth, and ‘involution-style’ competition has been comprehensively rectified… In the first half of the year, China’s economy grew by 5.3% year-on-year, continuing the momentum of steady improvement. Looking back on the 14th FYP period, in the face of one major challenge after another, China has withstood the pressure, endured the tests, and Chinese-style modernization has taken a great stride forward.” 2024年二、三季度，我国主要经济指标增速回落，市场预期走弱，海内外忧虑情绪有所蔓延。当年9月26日，中共中央政治局会议部署一揽子增量政策，被誉为“宏观调控的一次里程碑式出手”。今年以来，宏观政策持续发力、适时加力，打好政策“组合拳”；大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求；纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，综合整治“内卷式”竞争……中国经济上半年同比增长5.3%，延续了稳中向好态势。回望“十四五”，面对一次次重大挑战，中国顶住了压力、经受住了考验，中国式现代化向前迈出了一大步.

Later the piece tells us:

“‘The most essential characteristic of building a new development pattern is achieving a high level of self-reliance and self-strengthening.’ ‘We must understand this issue from the height of survival and development, and comprehensively strengthen the planning and deployment of scientific and technological innovation.’ General Secretary Xi Jinping profoundly pointed out at the special seminar for principal provincial- and ministerial-level leading cadres on studying and implementing the spirit of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee in January 2021. Over the past five years, China has made scientific and technological self-reliance and self-strengthening a strategic pillar of national development, comprehensively building new development advantages.” “构建新发展格局最本质的特征是实现高水平的自立自强”“我们必须把这个问题放在能不能生存和发展的高度加以认识，全面加强对科技创新的部署”。2021年1月，习近平总书记在省部级主要领导干部学习贯彻党的十九届五中全会精神专题研讨班上深刻指出。五年间，中国把科技自立自强作为国家发展的战略支撑，全面塑造发展新优势.

“In October 2022, the 20th Party Congress was held in Beijing. ‘From now on, the central task of the Communist Party of China is to unite and lead the people of all ethnic groups across the country in comprehensively building a great modern socialist country, realising the Second Centenary Goal, and comprehensively promoting the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation through Chinese-style modernisation.’ On the new journey of building a strong country and realising national rejuvenation, through the efforts of three consecutive Five-Year Plans — the 14th, 15th, and 16th — China will, by 2035, basically realise socialist modernisation, achieving the first step of the ‘two-step’ strategic arrangement. The 15th FYP is the crucial five years that connect the past and the future. It is also the first Five-Year Plan formulated by the Party Central Committee after embarking on the new journey. In this new and pivotal stage, China’s development environment faces profound and complex changes; strategic opportunities coexist with risks and challenges, and uncertain and unpredictable factors are increasing. Reflecting on the present and planning for the future, the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core has deeply grasped the laws of historical development, scientifically examined the current situation and trends, the risks and opportunities along the development path, and mapped out the path forward for China’s giant ship during the 15th FYP period. ‘We must accurately grasp the stage-specific requirements of the 15th FYP period, focus on the great cause of building a strong country and realising national rejuvenation, and center around the goal of basically achieving socialist modernisation. For each field, we must reasonably determine the targets and tasks and propose ideas and measures,’ General Secretary Xi Jinping provided this direction and guidance. From the detailed inquiries and reflections during his field inspections and investigations to the profound explanations at important meetings, General Secretary Xi Jinping, while coordinating the overall strategy for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and the great changes in the world unseen in a century, has put forward a series of clear requirements focusing on reform, development, and stability, laying out the blueprint for development during the 15th FYP period.

“On July 30 of this year, the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting and decided that the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Party would be convened in Beijing in October this year. Less than two months later, at the meeting of the Fourth of the CPC Central Committee held on September 29, the requirements for economic and social development during the 15th FYP period were put forward: ‘We must uphold the comprehensive leadership of the Party,’ ‘uphold the supremacy of the people’, ‘uphold high-quality development,’ ‘uphold comprehensive deepening of reform and expansion of high-level opening-up,’ ‘uphold the combination of an effective market and a proactive government,’ and ‘uphold the coordination between development and security.’ These represent both a summary and refinement of existing practices and guidance and inspiration for future development, indicating the fundamental principles for China’s economic and social development during the 15th FYP period and beyond. Those who discern trends are wise; those who harness them are victorious.

In responding to the complex changes in the external environment, ‘we must adopt a forward-looking approach to grasp how developments and changes in the international situation affect our country, and adjust and optimise the economic layout accordingly’; in the face of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, ‘we must place the development of new quality productive forces suited to local conditions in a more prominent strategic position’; in responding to the new expectations of the people, we must ‘take benefiting the people as the fundamental value orientation, ensure and improve people’s livelihoods in the course of development, and steadily advance common prosperity’; in planning with a nationwide perspective, all regions ‘must accurately position themselves within the overall national picture and strengthen the coordination of their plans’;”

This series of strategic guidelines deeply grasps the characteristics of the times and the laws of development, laying the foundation and gathering momentum for Chinese-style modernisation through long-term planning.

2022年10月，党的二十大在北京召开。“从现在起，中国共产党的中心任务就是团结带领全国各族人民全面建成社会主义现代化强国、实现第二个百年奋斗目标，以中国式现代化全面推进中华民族伟大复兴。”强国建设、民族复兴新征程上，我国将通过“十四五”“十五五”“十六五”3个五年的努力，到2035年基本实现社会主义现代化，实现“两步走”战略安排的第一步。“十五五”，正是承上启下的关键五年，也是踏上新征程后党中央着手制定的第一个五年规划。新的关键一程，我国发展环境面临深刻复杂变化，战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多。思当下、谋未来，以习近平同志为核心的党中央深刻把握历史发展规律，科学审视发展道路上的时与势、危与机，谋划“十五五”时期中国号巨轮的前进路线。“必须准确把握‘十五五’时期的阶段性要求，着眼强国建设、民族复兴伟业，紧紧围绕基本实现社会主义现代化目标，一个领域一个领域合理确定目标任务、提出思路举措。”习近平总书记把脉定向。从考察调研中的细问深思，到重要会议上的深刻阐释，习近平总书记统筹中华民族伟大复兴战略全局和世界百年未有之大变局，着眼改革发展稳定提出一系列明确要求，为“十五五”时期发展谋篇布局。今年7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，决定今年10月在北京召开党的二十届四中全会。此后不到两个月，9月29日召开的中共中央政治局会议提出“十五五”时期经济社会发展的要求：“必须坚持党的全面领导”“坚持人民至上”“坚持高质量发展”“坚持全面深化改革，扩大高水平开放”“坚持有效市场和有为政府相结合”“坚持统筹发展和安全”。这是对已有实践的总结提炼，又是对未来发展的启示引领，指明了“十五五”乃至更长时期我国经济社会发展的根本遵循。察势者智，驭势者赢。应对外部环境复杂变化，“要前瞻性把握国际形势发展变化对我国的影响，因势利导对经济布局进行调整优化”；面对新一轮科技革命和产业变革，“必须把因地制宜发展新质生产力摆在更加突出的战略位置”；回应人民群众新期待，要“把造福人民作为根本价值取向，坚持在发展中保障和改善民生，稳步推动共同富裕”；谋划全国一盘棋，各地区“要在全国大局中精准定位，加强规划衔接”；一系列战略指引深刻把握时代特征和发展规律，在谋定长远中为中国式现代化夯基聚势.

The final section says:

“What kind of five years will the 15th FYP period be in the historical process of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and amid the accelerated evolution of major changes unseen in a century? In the new five years, the path of reform will become ever broader. On July 18, 2024, the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Party deliberated and adopted the Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Further Comprehensively Deepening Reform and Advancing Chinese-Style Modernisation. The clarion call for further comprehensive deepening of reform in the new era and new journey resounded across the land of China. ‘By 2029, when the People’s Republic of China marks its 80th anniversary, the reform tasks proposed in this Decision shall be completed.’ More than 300 reform measures will all be accomplished during the 15th FYP period, continuously strengthening the driving force and social vitality for the construction of Chinese-style modernisation. Chinese-style modernisation has been continuously advanced through reform and opening up, and it will surely open up a broad prospect through reform and opening up. 观势定锚，御风前行。“十五五”，在中华民族伟大复兴的历史进程中，在世界百年未有之大变局加速演进的时代图景里，将是一个怎样的五年？新的五年，改革之路将越走越宽。2024年7月18日，党的二十届三中全会审议通过《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现代化的决定》，新时代新征程进一步全面深化改革的冲锋号角响彻神州大地。“到二〇二九年中华人民共和国成立八十周年时，完成本决定提出的改革任务”——300多项改革举措将在“十五五”规划期内全部完成，为中国式现代化建设持续增强发展动力和社会活力。中国式现代化是在改革开放中不断推进的，也必将在改革开放中开辟广阔前景.

“On July 1, 2025, General Secretary Xi Jinping presided over the sixth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission to discuss deepening the construction of a unified national market and put forward the basic requirements of ‘five unifications and one opening’: Unify the basic market system, unify market infrastructure, unify government behaviour standards, unify market supervision and law enforcement, and unify factor resource markets, and continue to expand domestic and international opening up. Each of these basic requirements aims to better manage the relationship between government and market, leverage deeper reforms, continuously cultivate and stimulate the advantages and potential of the super-large market, and build a solid foundation for responding to changes and forging new paths on the new journey. ‘Practice has proven that medium- and long-term development plans can both fully leverage the decisive role of the market in resource allocation and better leverage the role of the government.’ General Secretary Xi Jinping attaches great importance to the role of the Five-Year Plan in better managing the relationship between government and market. Through the formulation and implementation of the 15th FYP, China will better leverage the role of an effective market and an efficient government, using an effective market to improve resource allocation efficiency and using an efficient government to compensate for market failures.” 2025年7月1日，习近平总书记主持召开中央财经委员会第六次会议，研究纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，提出“五统一、一开放”的基本要求：统一市场基础制度、统一市场基础设施、统一政府行为尺度、统一市场监管执法、统一要素资源市场，持续扩大对内对外开放。每一条基本要求，都指向更好处理政府和市场关系，都将撬动更深层次的改革，持续培育激发超大规模市场的优势和潜力，筑起新征程上应对变局、开拓新局的坚实依托。“实践证明，中长期发展规划既能充分发挥市场在资源配置中的决定性作用，又能更好发挥政府作用。”习近平总书记高度重视五年规划在更好处理政府和市场关系中的作用。通过编制实施“十五五”规划，我国将更好发挥有效市场和有为政府作用，以有效市场提高资源配置效率，以有为政府弥补市场失灵.

“In the new five years, the power of innovation will be unstoppable. Accurately grasping the new stage of development, thoroughly implementing the new development philosophy, accelerating the construction of a new development pattern, and striving to promote high-quality development, this main thread profoundly shapes the entire process and all areas of China’s economic and social development. On July 7 this year, General Secretary Xi Jinping visited Shanxi Yangquan Valve Co., Ltd. for inspection and research. In the production workshop, the General Secretary frequently stopped to observe, learning in detail about production and sales, and profoundly pointed out: ‘We must not lose the real economy. Within the real economy, we must not lose the traditional industries. Transformation and upgrading must be achieved through scientific and technological innovation.’ Placing the development of new quality productive forces suited to local conditions ‘in a more prominent strategic position’’, General Secretary Xi Jinping’s high attention demonstrates the deep thinking of the leader of the new era on high-quality development and his accurate grasp of development trends and the tides of the times. After five years of hard work, China now possesses independently developed high-performance chips and operating systems; large AI models empowering thousands of industries; robots that greatly improve production efficiency; annual production of new energy vehicles exceeding 10 million units; and globally leading development in drones, high-speed rail, and quantum technology. ‘With scientific and technological innovation as the guide and the real economy as the foundation’; ‘aim at the world’s scientific and technological frontiers, continue to exert efforts in strengthening basic research and improving original innovation capability, and work swiftly to make breakthroughs in key core and frontier technologies’; ‘coordinate the integrated development of education, science and technology, and talent’. Accumulating momentum, nurturing momentum, and creating momentum, facing the 15th FYP, taking the development of new quality productive forces suited to local conditions as the key lever will drive industrial upgrading and institutional reform, injecting surging power into high-quality development.” 新的五年，创新之力将势不可挡。准确把握新发展阶段，深入贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，着力推动高质量发展——一条主线深刻塑造中国经济社会发展的全过程、各领域。今年7月7日，习近平总书记来到山西阳泉阀门股份有限公司考察调研。生产车间里，总书记不时驻足察看，详细了解产品生产和销售情况，并深刻指出：“实体经济不能丢，实体经济里边的传统产业不能丢，要通过科技创新实现转型升级。”“摆在更加突出的战略位置”，习近平总书记对因地制宜发展新质生产力的高度重视，彰显新时代的领航者对高质量发展的深刻思考，对发展大势和时代潮流的准确把握。五年奋进，中国拥有了自主研发的高性能芯片和操作系统、赋能千行百业的人工智能大模型、大幅提高生产效率的机器人，新能源汽车年产量突破1000万辆，无人机、高铁、量子科技等发展全球领先……“以科技创新为引领、以实体经济为根基”“瞄准世界科技前沿，在加强基础研究、提高原始创新能力上持续用力，在突破关键核心技术、前沿技术上抓紧攻关”“统筹推进教育科技人才一体发展”……积势、蓄势、谋势，面向“十五五”，把因地制宜发展新质生产力作为抓手，将牵引带动产业升级和体制改革，为高质量发展注入澎湃动能.

In addition, the article talks about the need to “continue to strengthen the foundation of people’s livelihoods.” This includes childcare subsidies. It also talks about pursuing common prosperity, while offering few details on what and how. The piece ends by calling for “measures to stabilise employment, businesses, the market, and expectations, effectively stabilising the fundamentals of the economy” and “prioritise coordinated development and security, ensuring a new development framework underpinned by a new security framework.”