State Council Discusses Economic Priorities - Ding Duo: Japan Aggressively Expanding Projection of Military Power - US-China Trade Talks ahead of Trump Visit
In this edition, I am covering three topics. First, over the weekend, there was a report on Li Qiang leading a State Council Executive Meeting. The agenda was “to study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important speeches regarding the current economic situation and economic work, as well as his remarks delivered at a symposium on strengthening basic research.”
“The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to truly unify thinking and action with the Party Central Committee’s scientific judgment of the situation, further strengthen confidence, grasp opportunities amid responding to changes in the situation, promote development amid overcoming difficulties, consolidate and expand the momentum of the economy being stable and trending upward, and strive to achieve a good start for the 15th FYP. Regarding macro-policies, efforts must focus on making full and effective use of available instruments, maintaining a proactive stance in policy implementation, and continuously enhancing their effectiveness. To strengthen the domestic great circulation, breakthroughs must be sought in coordination between supply and demand and in linked upgrading, measures to expand capacity and improve quality in the services sector must be implemented and improved, and planning and construction of water networks, new-type power grids, computing-power networks, next-generation communication networks, urban underground pipeline networks, logistics networks, and other such infrastructure must be strengthened.
Livelihood guarantee work must focus on exerting greater efforts in stabilising employment and ensuring the bottom line, and good work must be done in education, healthcare, childcare, and ‘three rural’ work. Greater effort and more concrete measures should be taken to strengthen basic research, elevate basic research as a major national priority, clarify the main direction of attack and key areas in light of urgent national needs and long-term demands, increase investment through multiple measures simultaneously, and pay attention to fostering a good scientific research ecosystem. Risks and challenges must be responded to forcefully and effectively, continuing to advance risk resolution in areas such as real estate, local government debt, and small and medium-sized financial institutions, closely monitoring and consolidating all parties’ responsibility for workplace safety, and resolutely curbing the occurrence of especially serious accidents. 会议指出，要切实把思想和行动统一到党中央对形势的科学判断上来，进一步增强信心，在应对变局中把握机遇，在攻坚克难中推动发展，巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头，努力实现“十五五”良好开局。宏观政策要在用好、用足上下功夫，坚持靠前发力，不断提升实施效能。做强国内大循环要在供需协同、联动升级上求突破，落实和完善服务业扩能提质举措，加强水网、新型电网、算力网、新一代通信网、城市地下管网、物流网等规划建设。民生保障要在稳就业、兜底线上多发力，做好教育、医疗、托育、“三农”等工作。要以更大力度、更实举措加强基础研究，把基础研究工作摆上重要日程，结合国家急迫需要和长远需求，明确主攻方向和重点领域，多措并举加大投入力度，注重营造良好科研生态。要有力有效应对风险挑战，持续推进房地产、地方政府债务、中小金融机构等领域风险化解，紧盯压实各方安全生产责任，坚决遏制重特大事故发生.
The meeting heard a report on the construction of the national comprehensive transportation system. The meeting pointed out that transportation infrastructure development should be advanced in a coordinated manner, with a focus on improving the integrated multi-dimensional transportation network, adhering to integrated planning and systemic coordination, effectively utilising existing resources, and optimizing new supply. Management and service standards should be improved, focusing on enabling convenient travel for people and smooth circulation of goods, creating a more efficient transportation environment, and promoting cost reduction, quality improvement, and greater efficiency in freight transport. Reform and innovation should continue to deepen, a unified and open transportation market should be developed, new technologies should be actively integrated and applied, new forms of transportation business should develop in a safe and orderly manner, and new drivers of economic growth should be cultivated. 会议听取全国综合交通运输体系建设情况汇报。会议指出，要统筹推进交通基础设施建设，着眼完善综合立体交通网络，坚持一体布局、系统集成，切实用好存量资源、做优增量供给。要提升管理服务水平，围绕人享其行、物畅其流，营造更加便捷的出行环境，促进货运降本提质增效。要持续深化改革创新，建设统一开放的交通运输市场，积极推动新技术赋能应用，安全有序发展交通运输新业态，培育更多新的增长点.
The meeting addressed and advanced work related to mitigating local government debt risks. It was noted that since the deployment and implementation of a comprehensive debt-resolution package, significant progress has been achieved in mitigating debt risks. Efforts must continue to focus on key sectors and weak links, reinforce the primary responsibilities of local governments, refine policies supporting debt resolution, enhance local governments’ independent debt-repayment capabilities, and ensure the timely completion of debt-resolution tasks. Furthermore, robust long-term mechanisms must be established and improved to resolutely prevent the accumulation of new implicit debt. 会议研究推进地方政府债务风险化解有关工作。会议指出，一揽子化债方案部署实施以来，债务风险化解工作取得明显成效。要继续聚焦重点领域和薄弱环节，压实地方主体责任，完善支持化债政策，增强地方自主偿债能力，确保如期完成化债任务。要建立健全长效机制，坚决防范新增隐性债务.
Finally, the meeting reviewed and approved the draft regulations for the implementation of the Mineral Resources Law. “The meeting pointed out that the Regulations further refined the institutional measures related to each link of mining rights management and mineral resource development and utilization. It is necessary to strengthen the whole-chain management of mineral resources in accordance with law, scientifically determine the catalog of strategic mineral resources, improve the resource reserve and emergency systems, and comprehensively raise the level of security guarantees for mineral resources.” 会议审议通过《中华人民共和国矿产资源法实施条例（草案）》。会议指出，《条例》进一步细化了矿业权管理和矿产资源开发利用各环节相关制度措施，要依法加强矿产资源全链条管理，科学确定战略性矿产资源目录，完善资源储备和应急制度，全面提高矿产资源安全保障水平.
Second, in today’s paper, we have confirmation of Donald Trump’s visit to China. But prior to Trump landing in China on May 13, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has said that Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to the Republic of Korea to hold economic and trade consultations with the United States from May 12 to 13. “The two sides will be guided by the important consensus reached between the two heads of state at their meeting in Busan and during previous calls, and will hold consultations on economic and trade issues of mutual concern.” Beijing has been very tight-lipped on the new Board of Trade and Board of Investment proposals that are being reported in international media outlets.
Also in today’s paper there’s a report on the 2026 China-US Amateur Pickleball Friendship Tournament being held in Jiangxi. This is part of China’s “5 Years, 50,000 People” initiative, promoting people-to-people exchanges by inviting 50,000 American teenagers to visit China for study and exchange programs over a five-year period. You can watch CGTN’s report on this below:
I guess pickleball is the right metaphor for this current phase of US-China competition. Two aged men who came in with big swings early on—tariffs, posturing, export controls—and have since settled into a slow-moving rally or some sort of a stalemate. Neither side has the footwork or the wrist speed to put the ball away. The rallies keep going, the drinks keep coming, but nobody’s winning the point; neither has really been able to demonstrate agility or something spectacular to take the initiative. Clearly, this ain’t no ping pong.
Third, in today’s paper, there’s an article by Ding Duo, Director of the Research Center for International and Regional Issues and research fellow of National Institute for South China Sea Studies. Ding writes that:
Recently, the Japanese government convened its first expert meeting to advance the launch of revision work on the ‘Three Security Documents’. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi absurdly declared at the meeting that the work of revising the ‘Three Security Documents’ is important work that determines the fate of the nation, and that it is necessary to advance responses to ‘new modes of warfare’, prepare for prolonged conflicts, and strengthen maritime security capabilities, cybersecurity, and economic security. 日前，日本政府就推进启动“安保三文件”修订工作召开首次专家会议。日本首相高市早苗在会议上妄言，修订“安保三文件”工作是左右国家命运的重要工作，要推进应对“新型作战方式”以及为长期战争做好准备，推进海上安保能力、网络安全和经济安全保障.
Recently, Japan’s ‘neo-militarism’ has been manifesting in a series of reckless manoeuvres. The dispatch of more than 1,000 personnel from the Japan Self-Defense Forces to participate in the US-Philippines Balikatan joint military exercises marked the first time since the Second World War that Japan deployed a formed combat unit to the Philippines to participate in military exercises. During the exercises, live-fire drills were conducted using Type 88 shore-to-ship anti-ship missiles. Furthermore, the Japanese government officially revised the ‘Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology’ and their implementation guidelines, announcing a significant relaxation of restrictions on the export of defense equipment. As a defeated country in the Second World War, Japan should have strictly upheld its peace commitments and drawn lessons from history. Yet today it is aggressively advancing the outward expansion of military power. This series of dangerous moves seriously undermines regional peace and stability and constitutes an open provocation against the postwar international order. 近来，日本“新型军国主义”妄动不断。日本自卫队派遣逾千兵力参加美菲“肩并肩”联合军演，是二战后日本首次以成建制作战力量登陆菲律宾参与军演。演习期间使用88式岸基反舰导弹进行实弹射击。日本政府正式修改“防卫装备转移三原则”及其运用指南，宣布大幅放宽防卫装备出口限制。作为二战战败国，日本本应谨守和平承诺、汲取历史教训，如今却大肆推进军事力量向外扩张。一连串危险举动严重破坏地区和平稳定，是对战后国际秩序的公开挑衅.
In 2022, Japan adopted three key documents—the National Security Strategy, the National Defense Strategy, and the Defense Buildup Program—collectively known as the ‘Three Security Documents’. Since assuming office, Sanae Takaichi has accelerated the expansion of military capabilities and armaments, substantially increased defense spending, initiated revisions to the ‘Three Security Documents’, deployed long-range missiles possessing ‘counter-strike capabilities against enemy bases’, and sought to revise the ‘Three Non-Nuclear Principles’. 2022年，日本通过了《国家安全保障战略》《国家防卫战略》《防卫力量整备计划》三份文件，统称“安保三文件”。高市早苗上台以来加速扩军备武，大幅增加防卫费，着手修改“安保三文件”，部署具有“对敌基地攻击能力”的远程导弹，并企图修改“无核三原则”.
For a long time, constrained by Japan’s ‘peace constitution’, overseas transfers of Japanese defense equipment were strictly limited to non-offensive categories, such as rescue, transport, warning, surveillance, and mine-clearing. Recently, however, Japan has substantially loosened restrictions on weapons exports, expanding the restrictive framework to ‘in principle, all defense equipment may be transferred’, while disguising this under rhetoric such as a ‘severe security environment’ and ‘mutual support among partner countries’. While ostensibly upholding the banner of ‘exclusively defensive defense’, this approach effectively uses the guise of peace to pursue actual military expansion, thereby continuously hollowing out the post-war peace regime. The large-scale deployment of combat forces to the Philippines and the open rehearsal of live-fire exercises using offensive weapons are the latest concrete evidence of Japan’s efforts to break free from the legal constraints imposed on a defeated country and accelerate the external projection of military power. 长期以来，受日本“和平宪法”约束，日本防卫装备海外转移被严格限定于救援、运输、警戒、监视、扫雷等非进攻性范畴。近期，日本大幅松绑武器出口限制，将限制框架放宽至“原则上所有防卫装备均可转移”，并以“安全保障环境严峻”“伙伴国相互支持”等说辞遮遮掩掩。这套做派表面高举“专守防卫”的招牌，实则借和平之名行扩军之实，不断架空战后和平体制。大规模向菲律宾投送作战部队、公然演练进攻性武器实弹射击，正是日本力图挣脱对战败国的法律束缚、加速军力对外投射的最新实证.
The pernicious consequences generated by the adventurist actions of Japan’s neo-militarism are already becoming apparent. First, Japan is openly breaking through the explicit constraints that the post-war international order imposed on the development of its military power, diluting the legal and moral responsibilities that a defeated country should bear, and seriously impacting the foundations of the post-war international order. Both the United Nations Charter and Article 9 of Japan’s Constitution imposed rigid constraints on Japan’s military development, but these are now being arbitrarily dismantled and rendered nearly meaningless. The international community, therefore, cannot but remain highly vigilant about the real risk of Japan repeating historical mistakes and once again becoming a source of instability in East Asia. Second, military adventurism is continuously emboldening Japan’s domestic far-right forces, while rightward-shifting public discourse increasingly suppresses rational anti-war voices. Militarist ideological currents are resurfacing like dregs from the bottom, burying deep hidden dangers for regional peace. Third, Japan is deepening military entanglement with certain regional countries while also engaging in cross-regional coordination with NATO, continuously importing unstable and uncertain factors into East Asia, significantly increasing the risk of regional confrontation and conflict, and undermining the broader situation of regional peace and stability. 日本“新型军国主义”冒险行径催生的恶果正在显现。其一，日本公然突破战后国际秩序对其军力发展的明确约束，淡化战败国应承担的法律与道义责任，严重冲击战后国际秩序根基。《联合国宪章》、日本宪法第九条均对日本军力发展作出刚性约束，如今却被肆意拆解、几近虚设，国际社会不得不高度警惕其重蹈历史覆辙、再度成为东亚动荡策源地的现实风险。其二，军事冒进持续助长日本国内极右翼势力嚣张气焰，右倾化舆论不断压制理性反战声音，军国主义思潮沉渣泛起，为地区和平埋下深层隐患。其三，日本与个别域内国家深化军事捆绑，还与北约开展跨区域协同联动，持续向东亚输入不稳定不确定因素，显著推高地区冲突对抗风险，破坏地区和平稳定大局.
Even more alarming is Japan’s stubborn regression in historical understanding alongside its step-by-step advance in military expansion. Recently, Sanae Takaichi offered ritual offerings and donations to the Yasukuni Shrine, where 14 Class-A Second World War war criminals are enshrined. The shrine has long served as a spiritual tool and symbol of Japanese militarism’s wars of aggression abroad. This act reflects Japan’s serious deviation in historical understanding, runs counter to the international community’s basic consensus regarding the history of aggression, and fully exposes its deeply rooted erroneous historical perspective. 更令人警觉的是，日本在历史认知上顽固倒退，在军事扩张上步步紧逼。高市早苗近日向供奉着14名二战甲级战犯的靖国神社供奉祭品和祭祀费。靖国神社向来是日本军国主义对外发动侵略战争的精神工具和象征，此举反映出日本在历史认知上的严重偏差，与国际社会对侵略历史的基本共识背道而驰，其根深蒂固的错误史观暴露无遗.
On one hand, Japan exaggerates so-called ‘external threats’ and manufactures an atmosphere of tension; on the other hand, it strengthens external military intervention through joint military exercises and defense exports. The essence of this approach is to exploit circumstances as a pretext for comprehensively loosening constraints on its own military expansion. The identity of a defeated nation bestowed upon Japan an obligation of reflection and restraint; what Japan is doing today is precisely an open abandonment of this obligation, a barbaric trampling of this barrier. The regression of historical cognition and the adventurism of military action are intertwined with each other; Japan’s accelerating ‘re-militarisation’ is already an undeniable established fact. This process has both a clear roadmap and continuous on-the-ground actions, and poses a direct threat to peace and order in the Asia-Pacific. 一面渲染所谓“外部威胁”、制造紧张氛围，一面以联合军演、防务输出强化对外军事介入——这套手法的实质是借题发挥，为自身军力扩张全面松绑。战败国身份赋予日本的是反省与克制的义务，日本今日所为恰是对这份义务的公然背弃，对这道屏障的野蛮践踏。历史认知的倒退与军事行动的冒进彼此交织，日本加速“再军事化”已是不容否认的既成事实。这一进程既有清晰路线设计，更有持续落地行动，对亚太和平秩序构成直接威胁.
The lessons of history are not distant. Japanese militarism’s brutal external expansion in the past brought indescribable disasters to Asian countries and ultimately caused Japan itself to suffer bitter consequences. As a defeated country, Japan not only refuses to repent, but is also determined to break through the constraints of the post-war system, continuously advancing military adventurism and provoking regional confrontation. This will not only destroy Japan’s post-war development achievements accumulated over decades, but also constitutes a serious provocation against the post-war international order. All countries that cherish peace in the Asia-Pacific should maintain clear-eyed cognition of Japan’s ‘neo-militarism’, and absolutely must not ignore or indulge it. Any military adventurism attempting to challenge the post-war order and undermine regional stability will ultimately face the joint opposition of countries in the region and is destined to end in failure. 历史教训殷鉴不远：当年日本军国主义对外野蛮扩张，给亚洲各国带来罄竹难书的深重灾难，最终也让日本自身吞下惨痛苦果。日本作为战败国，非但不思悔改，反而执意突破战后体制的束缚，持续推进军事冒险、挑动地区对立，不仅会葬送本国战后数十年的发展成果，更是对战后国际秩序的严重挑衅。所有珍视亚太和平的国家，都应对日本“新型军国主义”保持清醒认知，绝不能漠视纵容。任何试图挑战战后秩序、破坏地区稳定的军事冒险，终将遭到地区各国的共同反对，注定以失败收场.