Listen now | A conversation with Howard Wang on the Chinese military's evolving conceptions of systems conflict & the wars that it is preparing to fight
The adversary is an equal stake holder in any escalatory or deterrence situation.
It is my concern that this is often not given adequate attention or is wishfully ill assessed. This can be catastrophic.
Perhaps authority figures need to accept the lack of control once hostilities start, and be prepared for outcomes and responses which may not be anticipated.
The prescriptive approach to warfare like Eff Based Ops have been proven to be ineffective and misplaced in real world conflicts.
Moreover, wars are decided not only by the play of balance of resources but also by a balance of resolve. Iran and Ukraine both demonstrated this. So while infra differential works in its favour the reputaional costs are also acute in case any adversary, except USA, imposes a denial of its notion of victory, mil objectives or worse loss of face. I feel it can perhaps be a moment of great tension in China if that happens.
The adversary is an equal stake holder in any escalatory or deterrence situation.
It is my concern that this is often not given adequate attention or is wishfully ill assessed. This can be catastrophic.
Perhaps authority figures need to accept the lack of control once hostilities start, and be prepared for outcomes and responses which may not be anticipated.
The prescriptive approach to warfare like Eff Based Ops have been proven to be ineffective and misplaced in real world conflicts.
Moreover, wars are decided not only by the play of balance of resources but also by a balance of resolve. Iran and Ukraine both demonstrated this. So while infra differential works in its favour the reputaional costs are also acute in case any adversary, except USA, imposes a denial of its notion of victory, mil objectives or worse loss of face. I feel it can perhaps be a moment of great tension in China if that happens.