What Does China Want from Middle Powers around the World?
In today’s edition, I am only looking at the Huan Yu Ping commentary in the paper, arguing that “the ‘banding together’ of middle powers should not constitute a new weakening of multilateralism. Only by bidding farewell to the old logic of international relations where if you are not ‘at the table’ you are ‘on the menu’, and moving toward a new paradigm of international cooperation featuring extensive consultation, joint contribution, and shared benefits, can broader international consensus be forged amid turbulence and transformation, and together add forces for peace, stability, and development to the world.” 中等强国“抱团”不应对多边主义形成新的削弱。告别不在“餐桌上”就在“菜单里”的国际关系旧逻辑，走向共商共建共享的国际合作新范式，才能在动荡变革中凝聚更广泛的国际共识，共同为世界增添和平的力量、稳定的力量、发展的力量
The article says:
“‘If we are not at the table, we will end up on the menu.’ At the beginning of this year, a rather sharp remark by Mark Carney laid bare the increasingly intensifying collective anxiety among many countries, including traditional allies of the United States, against the backdrop of the rise of power politics and the reshaping of global norms. At that time, the response Carney offered was: middle powers must awaken. Amid a variety of views, how should one grasp the impact of this trend on the international landscape? It may be analysed starting from the following questions.” “如果我们不在餐桌上，就会出现在菜单里。”今年初，加拿大总理卡尼颇具锋芒的一番话，道出了强权政治抬头、全球规则重塑背景下，包括美国传统盟友在内的许多国家日益加剧的集体性焦虑。当时，卡尼给出的应对之道是：中等强国必须觉醒。众说纷纭间，如何把握这一态势对国际格局的影响？不妨从以下几个问题展开剖析.
First, what are middle powers? This concept lacks precise boundaries, and its definition evolves continuously in tandem with shifts in the global power structure. Generally speaking, middle powers are situated in the middle tier of the global political hierarchy. Although they do not possess the capacity to dominate the international order, they are not entirely dependent on others when handling international affairs. They are a group of countries that combine a certain economic scale, diplomatic initiative, and regional influence. In recent years, countries that self-identify as middle powers have seen their role in international affairs rise. From Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey, and Australia establishing a ‘middle power cooperation mechanism’ within the framework of the G20, to Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia actively mediating on hotspot issues, to South Africa and Indonesia taking initiatives on issues such as green energy, poverty reduction and development, and climate change, the group of middle powers is increasingly becoming an important variable influencing global governance.
Middle powers’ desire to become active shapers of regional and even international order is closely related to changes in the global situation. In recent years, frequent geopolitical conflicts and increasingly intense great-power rivalry have impacted the existing international order, and uncertainty in the international system has clearly increased. Especially over the past year or more, hegemonic countries have more recklessly impacted global peace and development, and a number of middle powers are facing the bitter situation of their own interests being directly harmed. Out of an urgent need to safeguard their own interests, these countries are continuously adjusting their foreign policies, placing greater emphasis on acting independently and on cooperation among themselves. This confirms the analysis of the British political scholar Hedley Bull: how great powers use their own strength will have an important impact on world peace; when great powers do not know how to use their strength with good will, or even attempt to use force to prevent the decline of their own hegemony, this will not only provoke chaos and turbulence but will also accelerate their decline process, catalysing the disenchantment of the myth of hegemony and the awakening in thought and action of more countries.
其一，何谓中等强国？这一概念并无清晰边界，其内涵随着国际力量结构的变化而不断调整。一般认为，中等强国处于全球政治阶梯的中间段，虽不具备对国际秩序的主导力，但处理国际事务时也并不完全依附他人，是兼具一定经济体量、外交能动性与区域影响力的国家群体。近年来，自我定位为中等强国的国家，在国际事务中发挥的作用有所上升。从墨西哥、印尼、韩国、土耳其和澳大利亚在二十国集团框架内成立“中等强国合作体”，到埃及、土耳其、沙特等在热点问题上积极斡旋，再到南非、印尼等在绿色能源、减贫发展、气候变化等议题上主动作为，中等强国群体正日益成为影响全球治理的重要变量。中等强国希望成为区域乃至国际秩序的主动塑造者，与全球形势的变化密切相关。近年来频发的地缘冲突和日趋激烈的大国博弈，使既有国际秩序受到冲击，国际体系的不确定性明显增强。尤其是过去一年多来，霸权国家更加肆无忌惮地冲击全球和平发展，一批中等强国面临着自身利益直接受损的苦涩局面。这些国家出于维护自身利益的迫切需要，不断调整对外政策，更加注重自主行事以及彼此之间的合作。这印证了英国政治学者赫德利·布尔的分析：大国如何运用自身实力将对世界和平产生重要影响；当大国不懂得善意运用实力，甚至试图以武力阻止自身霸权衰落，不但会引发混乱与动荡，也将加速其衰落进程，催动对霸权神话的祛魅以及更多国家思想和行动上的觉醒。
Second, what does the rise in the ‘presence’ of middle powers mean for the world? The strengthening of proactive actions by middle powers is one manifestation of the continued evolution of world multipolarity. In recent years, although hegemonism and power politics have continued to rise, the overall trend of multipolar development has not changed. Members of the international community, including many Western countries, have clearly deepened their understanding of multipolarity. Taking the Munich Security Conference as an observation window, the Munich Security Report has for two consecutive years acknowledged that multipolarity is irreversible, showing that Europe has, at the level of cognition, accepted the arrival of a ‘multipolar world’. A 2026 report by the Institute for Economics and Peace shows that the collective rise of middle powers is profoundly reshaping the global power structure and will continue over the next 20 years to be a key force influencing the direction of the international order.
The connotation of multipolarity is not merely a change in the power landscape, but more importantly that development paths, governance models, and civilisational forms are increasingly moving toward pluralistic coexistence. For a long time, the international order was to a large extent dominated by a small number of great powers. Today, middle powers are strengthening their strategic autonomy and paying attention to speaking out jointly and coordinating positions; this helps to counterbalance unilateralism and hegemonic behaviour and push the international system to become more pluralistic and inclusive. Patrick Stewart, a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in the United States, analysed and pointed out: ‘At a moment when the dawn of a new multipolar world is just appearing, middle powers will play an important role in revitalising international cooperation’.
Some scholars have pointed out that middle powers are a diverse group, and ‘the key lies in finding the right coalition for the right issue’. It is perfectly understandable for middle powers to draw closer to each other under turbulent circumstances, but this ‘banding together’ should not constitute a new weakening of multilateralism. If it is merely out of consideration for one’s own or a small group’s interests, deviating from prevailing international rules and order, then the so-called ‘awakening and alliance’ of middle powers may degenerate into a new exclusionary ‘small circle’, or even become a tool for more complex bloc confrontation. For a considerable number of middle powers, if they continue to understand their own strategic predicament as needing to make a ‘stress response’ to hegemonic behaviour, and cannot face squarely their own long-standing structural dependence on hegemonic countries, then these countries will be unable to truly free themselves from the manipulation of hegemonic countries. As Eswar Prasad, an economist at Cornell University in the United States, has warned that unless middle powers can transcend their respective short-term interests, they may become forces that further undermine stability.
其二，中等强国“存在感”上升，对世界意味着什么？中等强国加强主动作为，是世界多极化继续演进的一种表现。近年来，尽管霸权主义与强权政治持续抬头，但多极化的发展大势并未改变。包括许多西方国家在内的国际社会各成员，对多极化的认识明显深化。以慕尼黑安全会议为观察窗口，连续两年《慕尼黑安全报告》都承认多极化不可逆转，显示欧洲已在认知层面接受“多极化世界”的到来。澳大利亚经济与和平研究所2026年的报告显示，中等强国的群体性崛起正深刻重塑全球权力格局，并将在未来20年内持续成为影响国际秩序走向的关键力量。多极化的内涵，不只是力量格局变化，更在于发展路径、治理模式与文明形态日趋走向多元共存。长期以来，国际秩序在很大程度上由少数大国主导。如今，中等强国加强战略自主，且注重联合发声、协调立场，这有助于制衡单边主义与霸权行为，推动国际体系更加多元包容。美国卡内基国际和平基金会学者帕特里克·斯图尔特分析指出：“在一个新的多极世界初现曙光的当下，中等强国在重振国际合作方面将发挥重要作用。”有学者指出，中等强国是一个多元化群体，“关键在于针对合适的议题找到合适的联盟”。中等强国在动荡形势下彼此走近无可厚非，但这种“抱团”不应对多边主义形成新的削弱。若仅仅出于自身或者小团体的利益考虑，偏离了通行国际规则秩序，所谓中等强国的“觉醒与联盟”就可能沦为新的排他性“小圈子”，甚至成为更复杂的阵营对抗工具。对于相当一部分中等强国而言，若继续将自身战略困境理解为需要对霸权行径作出“应激”，无法正视自身长期以来对霸权国家的结构性依赖，那么，这些国家就无法真正摆脱霸权国家的摆弄。正如美国康奈尔大学经济学家埃斯瓦尔·普拉萨德所警示的，除非中等强国能超越各自短期利益，否则它们可能会变成进一步破坏稳定的力量.
Third, how should middle powers add forces of peace and stability to the world? Historical experience proves that when disorder appears in the international order, its root cause never lies in ‘multipolar’ structure, but in the abandonment of principles and the transgression of behavioural norms. Facing a world where turbulence and turmoil are intertwined, middle powers certainly have the need to safeguard their own rights and interests, but relevant actions should adhere to looking at the big picture, making efforts from the root of order and governance, and helping to shape an overall environment more conducive to peaceful development.
Uphold the correct direction of equal and orderly world multipolarity. Promoting world multipolarity to develop in an equal and orderly direction is a practical need for safeguarding world peace and development. ‘Equal’ means that countries, regardless of size or strength, are all equal members of the international community, and can all find their own place in the multipolar landscape and play their due role. ‘Orderly’ means that all countries must abide by universally recognised international rules, namely the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter and the basic norms of international relations. Only in this way can the ‘awakening’ of middle powers be transformed into a driving force for promoting cooperation and truly advancing world peace and development.
Firmly uphold international rule of law and fairness and justice. In today’s international relations, international rule of law is the fundamental guarantee, the guiding principle for upholding fairness and justice. Certain major powers regard international law as an obstacle to realizing national interests, often ‘using it when it suits them and discarding it when it does not’, and readily ‘withdrawing from treaties’ or ‘exiting organizations’, seriously damaging the authority of international rule of law and multilateral mechanisms. Only when middle powers safeguard their own rights and interests through international rule of law; fully, completely, and thoroughly observe universally recognised basic norms of international relations such as the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter; and refrain from ‘double standards’, can they effectively uphold the seriousness of international rule of law.
Resolutely oppose hegemonism and power politics. The prominent challenge facing the world today is that hegemonic actions seriously threaten the international order. This impacts all countries—middle powers, and even more so smaller and weaker states. For middle powers to truly play a greater positive role in international affairs, they must unite a broader international community, adhere to handling international affairs through joint consultation, form the broadest common ground for upholding multilateralism, and issue a common voice in maintaining the international order.
The anxiety of middle powers reflects the problems faced by the times. To truly move beyond this anxiety, it is necessary to identify the crux of the problem and apply targeted efforts. Only by bidding farewell to the old logic of international relations, either ‘at the table’ or ‘on the menu’, and moving toward a new paradigm of international cooperation featuring extensive consultation, joint contribution, and shared benefits, can broader international consensus be forged amid turbulence and transformation, and together add forces for peace, stability, and development to the world.
其三，中等强国应如何为世界增添和平稳定的力量？历史经验证明，国际秩序出现失序，其根源从不在于“多极”结构，而在于原则失守与行为失范。面对变乱交织的世界，中等强国确有维护自身权益的需要，但相关行动应坚持从大处着眼，从秩序与治理的根子上努力，助力塑造一个更有利于和平发展的整体环境。坚守平等有序多极化的正确方向。推动世界多极化朝着平等有序的方向发展，这是维护世界和平发展的现实需要。所谓平等，就是国家不分大小强弱都是国际社会的平等一员，都可以在多极格局中找到自己的位置，发挥应有的作用。所谓有序，就是各国都要遵守普遍公认的国际规则，那就是联合国宪章的宗旨和原则，就是国际关系的基本准则。唯有如此，中等强国的“觉醒”，才能转化为促进合作的动力，真正推动世界的和平与发展。坚定维护国际法治和公平正义。当今国际关系中，国际法治是根本保障，是维护公平正义之纲。个别大国视国际法为实现国家利益的障碍，对国际规则往往“合则用、不合则弃”，对国际条约和国际组织动辄“废约”“退群”，严重损害国际法治和多边机制的权威。中等强国通过国际法治保障自身权益，全面、充分、完整遵守联合国宪章宗旨和原则等公认的国际关系基本准则，不搞“双标”，才能有效维护国际法治的严肃性。坚决反对霸权主义和强权政治。当前世界面临的突出挑战，是霸权行径严重威胁国际秩序。这给所有国家都带来冲击，中等强国如此，弱小国家更是如此。中等强国要真正在国际事务上发挥更大积极作用，就要团结更广泛的国际社会，坚持国际上的事由大家共同商量着办，形成维护多边主义的最大公约数，发出维护国际秩序的共同声音。中等强国的焦虑，反映了时代所面临的问题。要真正走出焦虑，必须找准症结，靶向用力。告别不在“餐桌上”就在“菜单里”的国际关系旧逻辑，走向共商共建共享的国际合作新范式，才能在动荡变革中凝聚更广泛的国际共识，共同为世界增添和平的力量、稳定的力量、发展的力量。