What's the Direction of Economic Policy in 2026?: Central Financial & Economic Affairs Commission Officials Explain CEWC Outcomes

Hi folks, in today’s newsletter, I thought I’d focus on a detailed breakdown of an interview with officials from the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission, offering an explanation of the outcomes of the CEWC. If you are interested in the direction of China’s economic policy over the next 12 months, then this is a must read. There is specific policy guidance that the officials outline in this interview across a range of areas.

Some key takeaways:

• The 2025 fiscal deficit is around 4%. I think this is likely to be maintained, if not expand. The officials promise to “maintain necessary levels of fiscal deficit, total debt scale, and overall expenditure”. Apart from national strategies, the focus of government bonds will be on “benefiting people’s livelihoods, expanding domestic demand, and strengthening long-term growth momentum.”

• The focus of monetary policy will be “promoting stable economic growth and a reasonable rebound in prices.” I am rather keen to understand how they will use monetary policy to support price increases and is this related to the real-estate sector or overall? Does this mean lower rates or more liquidity infusion through some other format to stimulate spending, which can raise prices? Lots of unanswered questions.

• The officials add that further monetary policy support will be focused on “expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises.”

• On boosting domestic demand, there is an acknowledgment of the dip that’s taking place, and the emphasis is on leveraging the expansion of service demand with better supply, and expanding income support. The officials say that “we must formulate and implement income-increase plans for urban and rural residents, promote high-quality and full employment, continue to raise the basic pensions of urban and rural residents, and continuously enhance residents’ consumption capacity.”

• Also apart from major national projects, investment focus will be on “construction of consumption-related infrastructure, such as parking lots, charging piles, and tourist roads” and “livelihood-related areas, such as elderly care, childcare, and medical care, promote high-quality urban renewal, and strive to expand effective investment.”

• The section on building a unified national market is very useful. It outlines key actions at the market level, government level and enterprise level; it is in this context, that the officials talk about combatting “involution-style” competition.

• On trade, Beijing is interested in signing “more regional and bilateral trade and investment agreements”; it is also keen on expanding service sector opening.

• On expanding imports, this is important: “special policies will be studied and introduced to expand imports of high-quality consumer goods and support imports of key equipment, technologies, and components. Achieving a basic balance in the balance of international payments is our policy objective.”

• Also, on foreign investment, the officials say that “market access will be further relaxed, expanding pilot programs in areas such as value-added telecommunications and biotechnology, and ensuring that the requirements of ‘access and operation’ are fully implemented, addressing the problem of ‘the big door is open, but the small doors are closed’ in market access. Foreign investment support policies will be optimised to promote reinvestment by foreign companies in China and support foreign-invested enterprises in accelerating localised production and participating in upstream and downstream supply chain collaboration. Supporting policies for foreign companies establishing R&D centers in China will be improved.”

• In the section on the dual carbon goals and green energy, this bit is critical: “Next year, it is necessary to formulate the planning outline for building a strong energy nation. Continuously increase the proportion of new energy supply, accelerate the construction of clean energy bases, and promote the meeting of newly-added electricity demand mainly through new energy generation. Comprehensively raise the level of complementarity, mutual support, and safety and resilience of the power system, and build smart grids and microgrids. Actively expand application scenarios for clean energy, expand the use of green electricity, and build a batch of zero-carbon parks and zero-carbon factories.”

• On employment, the next year will be tough: “Next year, university graduates will reach 12.7 million people, hitting a new historical high, and there are also large numbers of key groups such as migrant workers and demobilised military personnel who need employment.”

• Finally, with regard to the real estate sector, there’s no going back. The aim is clear: “strictly control incremental supply and activate existing stock” and support real estate enterprises in accelerating transformation from mainly new home sales toward more property holding and provision of high-quality diversified residential services. The white-list system for home deliveries will continue.

Let’s dive in to the full interview now.

The first question is about the achievements of 2025. I am not detailing the list, but the bit about the challenges that persist is worth highlighting.

“While fully affirming the achievements, the meeting analysed the difficulties currently facing the economy, pointing out that China’s economic development still faces many old problems and new challenges. The impact of changes in the external environment is deepening, the imbalance between supply and demand is prominent, and there are numerous risks and hidden dangers in key areas. We must confront these problems and challenges head-on and squarely, recognising that most of them are issues arising from development and transformation, which cannot be bypassed or ignored, but can be resolved through concerted efforts. Looking ahead to next year, the world economy is expected to continue a trend of moderate growth, but with many uncertainties. From a domestic perspective, we face numerous difficulties and challenges, but the long-term positive supporting conditions and fundamental trends of a stable economic foundation, numerous advantages, strong resilience, and great potential remain unchanged. The advantages of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics, the advantages of a super-large market, a complete industrial system, and abundant human resources will become even more prominent. Active factor flows and innovation will continue to inject new momentum into development. The flow of people, goods, information, and capital will maintain a relatively rapid growth trend. Investment and consumption growth are expected to recover next year, industrial transformation and upgrading will accelerate, and technological and industrial innovation will enter a stage of concentrated breakthroughs. The prospects for China’s economic development are very bright. 在充分肯定成绩的同时，会议分析了当前经济运行中存在的困难和挑战，指出我国经济发展中老问题、新挑战仍然不少，外部环境变化影响加深，国内供强需弱矛盾突出，重点领域风险隐患较多。我们要直面问题、正视挑战，看到这些大多是发展中的、转型中的问题，绕不开、躲不过，经过努力是可以解决的。展望明年，世界经济有望延续温和增长态势，但变数较多。从国内看，我们面临的困难挑战不少，但经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大等长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改变，中国特色社会主义制度优势、超大规模市场优势、完整产业体系优势、丰富人才资源优势将更加彰显。活跃的要素流动和创新为发展持续注入新动能，人流、物流、信息流、资金流保持较快增长态势，投资和消费增速明年有望恢复，产业转型升级加快，科技和产业创新进入成果集中爆发阶段，我国经济发展前景是十分光明的。

The second question is about fiscal and macro policies. The response says:

“This year, China implemented a more proactive fiscal policy for the first time and, after 14 years, reintroduced a moderately loose monetary policy, which played a crucial role in promoting the sustained recovery and improvement of the economy. According to the CEWC, China will continue to implement more proactive and effective macroeconomic policies next year. In terms of policy orientation, we will adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency. Next year, we will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy:

In terms of policy intensity, we will maintain necessary levels of fiscal deficit, total debt scale, and overall expenditure. This will both address current needs by making full use of fiscal policy space and leave room to cope with future risks, ensuring fiscal sustainability. We will focus on addressing local government financial difficulties, establishing and improving mechanisms for increasing revenue and reducing expenditure, enhancing local governments’ independent financial capacity, and firmly safeguarding the bottom line of the ‘three guarantees’ at the grassroots level.

In terms of policy quality and effectiveness, we will improve precision and effectiveness. We will optimise the fiscal expenditure structure, strengthen financial support/guarantee for major national strategies, and promote more investment of funds and resources in people. We will coordinate and make good use of government bond funds, placing greater emphasis on benefiting people’s livelihoods, expanding domestic demand, and strengthening long-term growth momentum. At the same time, we will strictly enforce fiscal and financial discipline and persist in having Party and government organs live frugally.

In terms of implementation timing, we will take proactive measures. We will reasonably accelerate the allocation and disbursement of funds to promote the rapid formation of actual expenditures and physical work.” 答：今年我国首次实施更加积极的财政政策，时隔14年再次实施适度宽松的货币政策，为推动经济持续回升向好发挥了重要作用。根据中央经济工作会议部署，明年我国继续实施更加积极有为的宏观政策。在政策取向上，坚持稳中求进、提质增效。明年继续实施更加积极的财政政策——政策力度上，保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量。既着眼当前，用好用足财政政策空间，也为应对未来风险留有余地，确保财政可持续。重视解决地方财政困难，建立健全增收节支机制，增强地方自主财力，兜牢基层“三保”底线。政策质效上，提高精准性和有效性。优化财政支出结构，强化国家重大战略财力保障，推动更多资金资源投资于人。统筹用好政府债券资金，更加注重惠民生、扩内需、增后劲。同时，严肃财经纪律，坚持党政机关过紧日子。实施时机上，主动靠前发力。合理加快资金下达拨付，推动尽快形成实际支出和实物工作量。

Next year, we will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy:

• First, promoting stable economic growth and a reasonable rebound in prices will be an important consideration for monetary policy. This is a new concept introduced at this year’s conference. Monetary policy will strengthen forward-looking and scientific adjustments, maintain ample liquidity, keep social financing conditions relatively loose, promote low-level operation of overall social financing costs, and form synergy with other policy measures to strive to achieve economic growth and price rebound targets.

• Second, we will flexibly and efficiently utilise various monetary policy tools. The monetary policy toolbox includes both reserve requirement ratio reductions and interest rate cuts, as well as other short-term, medium-term, and long-term liquidity injection tools. Next year, we will flexibly combine and efficiently utilize various tools to ensure that the growth of social financing and money supply matches the expected targets for economic growth and overall price levels.

• Third, we will intensify support for key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises. We will continue to make good and effective use of structural monetary policy tools, focusing on improving the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, and continuously enhancing the quality and efficiency of financial services to the real economy. At the same time, we will continue to balance internal and external factors and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. 明年继续实施适度宽松的货币政策——一是把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，这是今年会议的新提法。货币政策将加强前瞻性、科学性调节，保持流动性充裕，保持社会融资条件相对宽松，促进社会综合融资成本低位运行，与其他政策举措形成合力，努力推动实现经济增长、物价回升等目标。二是灵活高效运用多种货币政策工具。货币政策工具箱既包括降准降息，也包括其他短期、中期、长期流动性投放工具。明年将灵活搭配、高效运用多种工具，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。三是加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。继续用好用活结构性货币政策工具，着力畅通货币政策传导机制，持续提升金融服务实体经济的质效。同时，要继续平衡好内外部关系，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定.

The next question is about the expansion of domestic demand and investment. The response is:

“Expanding domestic demand is the top priority among the key tasks for next year. Overall, China’s domestic demand remained stable this year, contributing 71% to economic growth in the first three quarters. Policies to boost consumption have been effective, and efforts to expand effective investment have progressed steadily. We have also noticed that the growth rate of consumption and investment has slowed in recent months, requiring continued efforts to expand domestic demand. 扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务。今年我国内需总体保持稳健，前三季度内需对经济增长贡献率达到71%。提振消费政策成效明显，扩大有效投资扎实推进。我们也注意到，近几个月消费和投资增速有所放缓，需要持续加力扩内需.

Next year, we must grasp the structural changes in consumption and boost consumption from both the supply and demand sides. Currently, China is shifting from a pattern dominated by goods consumption to one that gives equal weight to goods consumption and services consumption. While commodity consumption growth has slowed in some areas, demand for services, such as culture and tourism, elderly care, and childcare, remains strong. We must use new demand to lead new supply, and use new supply to create new demand, promoting a better matching between supply and demand. We must formulate and implement income-increase plans for urban and rural residents, promote high-quality and full employment, continue to raise the basic pensions of urban and rural residents, and continuously enhance residents’ consumption capacity. We need to expand the supply of high-quality goods and services, vigorously develop new consumption formats, models, and scenarios, and strengthen trillion-yuan-level new growth points in consumption such as household services and health and wellness tourism and elderly care. We need to effectively unleash the potential of consumer demand, continuously remove unreasonable restrictions, support qualified regions in promoting spring and autumn breaks for primary and secondary schools, and ensure the implementation of staggered paid leave for employees. We must build the ‘Shop in China’ brand and unleash the huge incremental potential of inbound consumption.

明年要把握消费的结构性变化，从供需两侧发力提振消费。当前，我国正在从以商品消费为主转向商品消费和服务消费并重，一些领域商品消费增速放缓，但文旅、养老、托育等服务消费需求旺盛。要以新需求引领新供给、以新供给创造新需求，促进供需更加适配。要制定实施城乡居民增收计划，促进高质量充分就业，继续提高城乡居民基础养老金，持续提升居民消费能力。要扩大优质商品和服务供给，大力发展消费新业态新模式新场景，培育壮大家政、旅居康养等万亿级消费新增长点。要有效释放消费需求潜力，持续清理不合理限制措施，支持有条件地区推广中小学春秋假，把职工带薪错峰休假落实到位。打造“购在中国”品牌，释放入境消费巨大增量空间.

Next year, we must focus on benefiting people’s livelihoods and strengthening long-term momentum, and push investment to stop falling and stabilise. At present, investment has declined, but our country still has many shortcomings and weak points in areas such as scientific and technological innovation, industrial upgrading, infrastructure, and improving people’s livelihoods. We need to combine investing in things and investing in people, coordinate boosting consumption and expanding investment, accelerate the construction of consumption-related infrastructure, such as parking lots, charging piles, and tourist roads, increase the proportion of investment in livelihood-related areas, such as elderly care, childcare, and medical care, promote high-quality urban renewal, and strive to expand effective investment. We need to effectively leverage the driving role of government investment, make good use of central budget investment, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, and local government special bonds, optimize the implementation of major projects, and proactively implement eligible major projects under the 15th FYP, giving full play to the leading and driving role of major projects. To stimulate private investment, we must effectively implement the measures to further promote the development of private investment, support private enterprises in participating in major projects in fields such as railways and nuclear power, and guide private investment towards new sectors such as high technology and services, thereby boosting confidence in private investment with more concrete measures. We believe that through the coordinated efforts of investment and consumption, and the collaboration between the government and the market, we are fully capable of driving sustained growth in domestic demand next year.

明年要着眼惠民生增后劲，推动投资止跌回稳。当前投资出现下滑，但我国在科技创新、产业升级、基础设施、改善民生等方面还有不少短板弱项。要把投资于物和投资于人相结合，统筹提振消费和扩大投资，加快建设停车场、充电桩、旅游公路等消费基础设施，提高养老、托育、医疗等民生类投资比重，高质量推进城市更新，着力扩大有效投资。要有效发挥政府投资带动作用，用好中央预算内投资、超长期特别国债、地方政府专项债券等资金，优化实施“两重”项目，靠前实施具备条件的“十五五”重大项目，发挥重大工程牵引带动作用。要激发民间投资活力，落实好进一步促进民间投资发展的若干措施，支持民营企业参与铁路、核电等领域重大项目，引导民间投资向高技术、服务业等新赛道拓展，以更实举措增强民间投资信心。我们相信，通过投资消费联动、政府市场协同，明年完全有条件推动内需实现持续增长。

The next question is about the construction of international science and technology innovation centers in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and the Greater Bay Area. The officials call the decision to establish innovation centers in these regions a “major deployment made by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China with a view to enhancing the global influence and competitiveness…”

They add:

Over the past few years, the construction of the three major innovation centers has yielded remarkable results, playing a crucial role in supporting the enhancement of China’s innovation capabilities. Since the launch of these centers, significant efforts have been made to strengthen original innovation, resulting in a number of groundbreaking achievements and the formation of several advanced manufacturing clusters, with their radiating and leading roles becoming increasingly evident. In 2024, the R&D intensity of Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong reached 6.58%, 4.35%, and 3.6%, respectively. In the 2025 global ranking of the top 100 innovation clusters, Shenzhen–Hong Kong–Guangzhou, Beijing, and Shanghai–Suzhou ranked first, fourth, and sixth, respectively. 过去几年三大中心建设成效显著，对支撑我国创新能力提升发挥了重要作用。三大中心建设启动以来，大力加强原始创新，产出一批原创性成果，集聚形成若干先进制造业集群，辐射引领作用持续显现。北京、上海、广东2024年研发投入强度分别达到6.58%、4.35%、3.6%。2025年全球百强创新集群排名中，深圳—香港—广州、北京、上海—苏州分别位居第一、第四、第六位.

They further add that “promoting the expansion of scope of international science and technology innovation centers, better integrating innovation resources, and continuously amplifying their role in original innovation, leading high-end industries, and the transformation of scientific and technological achievements is beneficial to forming a situation of linkage and mutual promotion between scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation, continuously giving birth to new-quality productive forces, and providing strong and powerful support for high-quality development.” 推动国际科技创新中心扩围，更好整合创新资源，持续放大其在原始创新策源、高端产业引领、科技成果转化等方面作用，有利于形成科技创新和产业创新联动互促局面，不断催生新质生产力，为高质量发展提供强有力支撑.

“The expansion and upgrading of these three major centers will undoubtedly become an important strategic fulcrum for China’s journey towards becoming a strong science and technology nation. Relevant departments are currently formulating construction plans for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Yangtze River Delta international science and technology innovation centers. These plans will focus on the layout of strategic scientific and technological forces, the deployment of major tasks, pilot institutional reforms, and the joint cultivation of industrial clusters, and will introduce a series of practical measures. We believe that as these measures are gradually implemented, the three centers will become models and benchmarks for innovation-led Chinese-style modernisation.” 三大中心建设扩围提质，必将成为我国迈向科技强国的重要战略支点。有关方面正在制定北京（京津冀）、上海（长三角）国际科技创新中心建设方案，将围绕战略科技力量布局、重大任务部署、体制改革试点、产业集群联合培育等，推出一批务实举措。我们相信，随着各项举措逐步落地，三大中心必将成为创新引领中国式现代化的样板和标杆.

The next question deals with two issues: obstacles in building a unified national market, and efforts to deal with involution-style competition. The answer is:

China possesses the advantage of a super-large-scale market, but in real economic activity there still exist some phenomena that distort market mechanisms and hinder fair competition. In particular, the problem of ‘involution-style’ competition is prominent. The construction of a unified national market still faces many obstacles and bottlenecks, affecting the smooth circulation of the economy. In July this year, General Secretary Xi Jinping made clear arrangements at the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission on advancing the construction of a unified national market in depth. Relevant departments have introduced and implemented a series of policies and reform measures, and positive progress has been made in advancing the construction of the unified national market, with product prices in some industries already rebounding noticeably. But it must also be recognised that this work cannot be accomplished overnight; it is a protracted battle.

This CEWC made further arrangements for the construction of the unified national market. Next year, more targeted measures must be adopted to further enhance the effectiveness of unified national market construction and achieve efficient allocation of all kinds of resources and factors.

• At the market level, it is necessary to continuously improve the rules for market operation. Accelerate the formulation of regulations on the construction of a unified national market, build the foundational institutional framework of the unified national market, and improve basic systems, such as market access, fair competition, and quality standards. Focus on breaking down barriers in areas such as access to factors, qualification certification, bidding and tendering, and government procurement, so that factor resources can flow freely over a wider range and market operation efficiency can be improved.

• At the government level, it is necessary to continuously regulate local governments’ economic promotion behaviuor. In response to some localities providing noncompliant incentives in investment attraction, such as tax and fee concessions, land, and electricity price discounts, and even incurring debt to provide subsidies, it is necessary to accelerate the introduction of lists of encouraged and prohibited items for local investment attraction, and clearly draw red lines and bottom lines. Resolutely correct disguised noncompliant investment attraction through means such as ‘under-the-table agreements’. Continuously regulate law-enforcement behavior involving enterprises and improve the system of administrative discretion standards. Focus on rectifying irregularities in bidding and tendering in some areas, clearing unreasonable restrictions, and preventing local protectionism. Improve statistical, fiscal, and assessment systems that are conducive to the construction of a unified national market, and promote the establishment and practice of a correct view of political achievements.

• At the enterprise level, it is necessary to deeply rectify ‘involution-style’ competition. It is necessary to accelerate the improvement of capacity regulation mechanisms in key industries, strengthen dynamic monitoring and early warning, allowing backward capacity to exit in an orderly manner while ensuring that new high-quality capacity is smoothly brought online. It is necessary to strengthen comprehensive governance, reinforce industry self-discipline and standards guidance, and comprehensively apply regulatory tools such as credit supervision, price enforcement, anti-monopoly, and anti-unfair competition measures, focusing on regulating the order of market competition, forming a market ecosystem of high quality with appropriate pricing and benign competition, and better giving play to the market mechanism’s function of survival of the fittest.

In sum, advancing in depth the construction of a unified national market will surely effectively smooth China’s economic circulation, further stimulate the potential of the super-large-scale market advantage, and continuously enhance the endogenous driving force and vitality of economic development. 我国具有超大规模市场优势，但现实经济活动中仍存在一些扭曲市场机制、妨碍公平竞争现象，特别是“内卷式”竞争问题突出，全国统一大市场建设仍然面临不少卡点堵点，影响经济循环畅通。习近平总书记今年7月在中央财经委第六次会议上就纵深推进全国统一大市场建设作了明确部署。有关部门出台实施了一系列政策和改革举措，推进全国统一大市场建设取得积极进展，一些行业产品价格已经明显回升。但也要看到，这项工作不是一蹴而就的，是持久战。这次中央经济工作会议对统一大市场建设作了进一步部署。明年要采取更具针对性的措施，进一步增强统一大市场的建设成效，实现各类资源要素高效配置。市场层面，要持续完善市场运行规则。加快制定全国统一大市场建设条例，搭建起统一大市场的基础性制度架构，完善市场准入、公平竞争、质量标准等基础制度。着力破除要素获取、资质认定、招标投标、政府采购等方面壁垒，使要素资源能在更大范围内自由流动，提高市场运行效率。政府层面，要持续规范地方政府经济促进行为。针对一些地方在招商引资中违规提供税费、土地、电价等优惠，甚至举债搞补贴，要加快出台地方招商引资鼓励和禁止事项清单，划清红线底线。坚决纠治通过“抽屉协议”等方式变相违规招商。要持续规范涉企执法行为，完善行政裁量权基准制度。要着力整治一些领域的招标投标乱象，清理不合理限制，防止出现地方保护。完善有利于统一大市场建设的统计、财税、考核制度，推动树立和践行正确政绩观。企业层面，要深入整治“内卷式”竞争。要加快完善重点行业产能调控机制，加强动态监测预警，既让落后产能有序退出，也让新增优质产能平稳接续。要强化综合治理，加强行业自律、标准引领，综合运用信用监管、价格执法、反垄断和反不正当竞争等监管手段，着力规范市场竞争秩序，形成优质优价、良性竞争的市场生态，更好发挥市场机制优胜劣汰功能。总之，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，必将有效畅通我国经济循环，进一步激发超大规模市场优势潜力，持续增强经济发展内生动力和活力.

The next question deals with promoting balanced trade development, optimising the business environment, and expanding the attraction of foreign investment. The answer says:

“The CEWC has made a series of arrangements for expanding high-level opening to the outside world. Among them, focusing on steadily advancing institutional opening-up, three aspects of measures will be introduced next year.

• First, expand autonomous opening in the services sector in an orderly manner. Expand market access and opening areas in the services industry, deepen and optimise comprehensive pilot and demonstration programs for expanding opening-up of the services sector, improve the negative list management system for cross-border trade in services, and raise the level of opening-up of modern services.

• Second, build open highlands in diverse forms. Guided by the strategy of upgrading free trade zones, we will optimise the layout and scope of free trade zones, enhance their capacity for innovation-driven development, align with high-standard international economic and trade rules, and better leverage their role as ‘experimental fields’ for institutional opening up. We will also ensure the smooth operation of the Hainan Free Trade Port after its ‘customs closure’.

• Third, promote the negotiation and signing of more regional and bilateral trade and investment agreements. Promote the negotiation and signing of more high-standard free trade agreements, actively incorporate high-level economic and trade rules, flexibly and pragmatically expand the network of economic and trade partnerships, and implement opening-up measures such as zero tariffs for African countries that have diplomatic relations.

中央经济工作会议对扩大高水平对外开放作出系列部署。其中，围绕稳步推进制度型开放，明年将推出三方面举措。一是有序扩大服务领域自主开放。扩大服务业市场准入和开放领域，深化优化服务业扩大开放综合试点示范，完善跨境服务贸易负面清单管理制度，提升现代服务业开放水平。二是打造形态多样的开放高地。以自贸试验区提升战略为引领，优化自贸试验区布局范围、提升创新引领发展能级，对接国际高标准经贸规则，更好发挥制度型开放“试验田”作用。落实好海南自由贸易港封关运作。三是推动商签更多区域和双边贸易投资协定。推动商签更多高标准自贸协定，积极纳入高水平经贸规则，灵活务实拓展经贸伙伴关系网络，落实对非洲建交国实施零关税等开放措施.

On foreign trade, the report says:

“Focusing on promoting quality improvement and efficiency enhancement in foreign trade, next year—while advancing integrated development of trade and investment, integrated development of domestic and foreign trade, and diversified market development, and actively developing trade in services, digital trade, and green trade—special policies will be studied and introduced to expand imports of high-quality consumer goods and support imports of key equipment, technologies, and components. Achieving a basic balance in the balance of international payments is our policy objective. Next year, more than 100 import promotion activities will be held around the theme of ‘Sharing the Big Market-Exporting to China’, with greater support to expand imports. We will continue to leverage the role of major exhibition platforms, regularly hold the CIIE Premium Products Trading Fair, and continuously cultivate national import trade promotion innovation demonstration zones. 围绕促进外贸提质增效，明年在推进贸易投资一体化、内外贸一体化发展、市场多元化发展，积极发展服务贸易、数字贸易、绿色贸易的同时，将研究出台专项政策，扩大优质消费品进口，支持关键设备、技术和零部件进口。实现国际收支基本平衡是我们的政策目标。明年将围绕“共享大市场·出口中国”主题举办超百场进口促进活动，以更大力度扩大进口。继续发挥重要展会平台作用，常态化举办进博优品交易会，持续培育国家进口贸易促进创新示范区.

Focusing on continuously optimising the business environment and expanding foreign investment attraction, next year will see the introduction of a series of new policies and measures to improve the foreign investment environment, driven by deepening reforms of the foreign investment promotion system and mechanisms. Market access will be further relaxed, expanding pilot programs in areas such as value-added telecommunications and biotechnology, and ensuring that the requirements of ‘access and operation’ are fully implemented, addressing the problem of ‘the big door is open, but the small doors are closed’ in market access. Foreign investment support policies will be optimised to promote reinvestment by foreign companies in China and support foreign-invested enterprises in accelerating localised production and participating in upstream and downstream supply chain collaboration. Supporting policies for foreign companies establishing R&D centers in China will be improved. The foreign investment service and guarantee system will be strengthened, fully implementing national treatment for foreign-invested enterprises in areas such as resource acquisition, qualification licensing, standard setting, and government procurement. A multi-level, regular communication and exchange mechanism will be improved to help foreign-invested enterprises resolve difficulties.” 围绕持续优化营商环境扩大吸引外资，明年将以深化外商投资促进体制机制改革为牵引，新推出一批优化外商投资环境的政策措施。进一步放宽市场准入，扩大增值电信、生物技术等领域开放试点，落实好“准入又准营”要求，着力破解市场准入中“大门开、小门不开”的问题。优化外商投资支持政策，促进外资境内再投资，支持外资企业加快本地化生产、参与产业链上下游配套协作。完善支持外资在华设立研发中心的配套政策。健全外商投资服务保障体系，围绕外资企业关注的要素获取、资质许可、标准制定、政府采购等方面，全面落实国民待遇。完善多层级、常态化沟通交流机制，帮助外资企业排忧解难.

As a response to the next question about regional coordinated development, the report puts forth four points:

• First, formulate and implement the 15th FYP implementation plan for regional development strategies. Taking into account the current and future trends over a certain period in areas such as industrial structure and population structure, relevant departments will organise the compilation of a number of implementation plans, further promote coordinated development among the eastern, central, western, and northeastern areas, consolidate and enhance the role of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area as sources of momentum for high-quality development, advance the construction of Xiong’an New Area as a modern city with high standards and high quality, raise the development level of the Chengdu–Chongqing dual-city economic circle, and promote the accelerated development of urban agglomerations such as the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.

• Second, guide localities to develop new-quality productive forces according to local conditions. It is necessary to push all localities to accurately grasp their strategic positioning within the overall national development landscape, adhere to the principle of ‘adapting to local conditions’, base themselves on their own resource endowments and industrial foundations, precisely cultivate and grow new quality productive forces, better give play to comparative advantages, and explore characteristic and differentiated development paths.

• Third, promote integrated urban–rural development. Deepen the advance of people-centered new-type urbanisation, and promote the urbanisation of the agricultural transfer population in a scientific and orderly manner. Promote high-quality development of the county-level economy. Advance urbanisation construction with county seats as important carriers in a classified manner, learn from and apply the experience of the ‘Ten-Million Project’, and advance rural revitalisation in a classified, orderly, and area-based manner.

• Fourth, promote orderly regionally-linked development. In terms of hard connectivity, advance construction of cross-regional and cross-basin major corridors, and strengthen interconnection and interoperability of regional infrastructure. In terms of soft connectivity, improve mechanisms for inter-regional planning coordination, industrial cooperation, benefit sharing and so on, and deepen cross-administrative region cooperation. Implement the national industry transfer development elevation project, promote orderly transfer of key industries domestically.

一是制定实施区域发展战略“十五五”实施方案。有关部门将结合当前和未来一个时期产业结构、人口结构等方面变化趋势，组织编制若干实施方案，进一步推动东、中、西、东北四大板块协同发展，巩固提升京津冀、长三角、粤港澳大湾区高质量发展动力源作用，高标准高质量推进雄安新区建设现代化城市，提升成渝地区双城经济圈发展能级，推动长江中游城市群等加快发展。二是指导地方因地制宜发展新质生产力。要推动各地准确把握在全国发展大局中的战略定位，坚持“因地制宜”，立足地方自身资源禀赋、产业基础，精准培育、发展壮大新质生产力，更好发挥比较优势，探索特色化差异化发展路径。三是推动城乡融合发展。深入推进以人为本的新型城镇化，科学有序推进农业转移人口市民化。推动县域经济高质量发展。分类推进以县城为重要载体的城镇化建设，学习运用“千万工程”经验，分类有序、片区化推进乡村振兴。四是有序促进区域联动发展。在硬联通方面，推进跨区域跨流域大通道建设，强化区域基础设施互联互通。在软联通方面，健全区域间规划统筹、产业协作、利益共享等机制，深化跨行政区合作。实施国家产业转移发展提升工程，促进重点产业在国内有序转移.

On the role of economically-strong provinces, the officials say:

“Economically strong provinces are the ‘ballast’ and ‘main pillars’ of the overall national development landscape. In response to the practical difficulties faced by economically-strong provinces in taking the lead and shouldering major responsibilities:

• First, we will support them in boldly carrying out reform and innovation, deeply advancing reforms in the market-oriented allocation of factors of production, and more fully stimulating the vitality of the private economy and small and medium-sized enterprises. We will support the development of new forms and models of foreign trade and vigorously promote high-level opening-up.

• Second, we will support economically-strong provinces in enhancing their scientific and technological innovation capabilities, accelerating the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, and, following a ‘one province, one policy’ approach, cultivating emerging pillar industries and future industries. We will support the creation of diversified consumption scenarios in key areas such as culture and tourism, education and sports, domestic services and elderly care, and catering and accommodation, and improve diversified investment and financing models for urban renewal.

• Third, we will strengthen talent cultivation and aggregation in economically strong provinces, and reinforce factor guarantees such as land, energy, environment, and data.

At the same time, we will coordinate support for economically strong provinces in shouldering major responsibilities with regional coordinated development, adhere to the principle of the country as one chessboard, refrain from creating ‘policy low-lands’ (政策洼地), and form a vivid pattern of complementary advantages and linked development across all regions. 经济大省是全国发展大局的“压舱石”“顶梁柱”。针对经济大省走在前、挑大梁的实际困难问题，一是支持经济大省大胆改革创新，深入推进要素市场化配置改革，更充分激发民营经济、中小企业活力。支持发展外贸新业态新模式，大力推进高水平对外开放。二是支持经济大省提升科技创新能力，加快推动传统产业转型升级，“一省一策”培育新兴支柱产业和未来产业。支持在文化旅游、教育体育、家政养老、餐饮住宿等重点领域打造多元化消费场景，健全城市更新多元化投融资模式。三是加强经济大省人才培养集聚，强化土地、能源、环境、数据等要素保障。同时，统筹支持经济大省挑大梁和区域协调发展的关系，坚持全国一盘棋，不搞“政策洼地”，形成各地区优势互补、联动发展的生动格局. (Note: The bit around policy low-lands relates to local-level practices that undercut competition through excessive tax concessions, subsidies, price cutting, etc.)

The next question is around dual carbon goals. There are five points that the officials make.

• First, actively and prudently advance carbon peaking. Next year will be the first year of a comprehensive shift from dual control of energy consumption to dual control of carbon emissions. It is necessary to further consolidate the foundation for carbon emissions statistics and accounting, and implement a dual-control system for total carbon emissions and carbon intensity. Coal and petroleum are the main components of China’s energy consumption and carbon emissions, and it is necessary to deeply advance energy-saving and carbon-reduction retrofits in key industries, and steadily promote the peaking of coal and petroleum consumption. It is necessary to strengthen the construction of the national carbon emissions trading market, and improve the voluntary greenhouse gas emissions reduction trading system. 一是积极稳妥推进碳达峰。明年是从能耗双控全面转向碳排放双控的第一年，要进一步夯实碳排放统计核算基础，实施碳排放总量和强度双控制度。煤炭和石油是我国能源消费和碳排放的主体，要深入推进重点行业节能降碳改造，稳步推动煤炭和石油消费达峰。要加强全国碳排放权交易市场建设，健全温室气体自愿减排交易制度.

• Second, accelerate the construction of a new-type energy system. For the first time in a five-year plan, the 15th FYP proposals call for the building of a strong energy nation, which is of major significance. Next year, it is necessary to formulate the planning outline for building a strong energy nation. Continuously increase the proportion of new energy supply, accelerate the construction of clean energy bases, and promote the meeting of newly-added electricity demand mainly through new energy generation. Comprehensively raise the level of complementarity, mutual support, and safety and resilience of the power system, and build smart grids and microgrids. Actively expand application scenarios for clean energy, expand the use of green electricity, and build a batch of zero-carbon parks and zero-carbon factories. 二是加快建设新型能源体系。“十五五”规划建议首次在五年规划中提出建设能源强国，意义重大。明年要制定能源强国建设规划纲要。持续提高新能源供给比重，加快清洁能源基地建设，推动新增用电主要由新能源发电满足。全面提升电力系统互补互济和安全韧性水平，建设智能电网和微电网。积极拓展清洁能源应用场景，扩大绿电应用，建设一批零碳园区、零碳工厂.

• Third, accelerate the development of green and low-carbon industries. Improve supporting policies in finance, taxation, and investment, and cultivate new growth points such as hydrogen energy and green fuels. Implement a comprehensive solid waste management action plan, building a comprehensive solid waste management system that includes source reduction, process control, end-of-life utilization, and harmless management throughout the entire chain, strengthening the recycling of renewable resources and vigorously developing the circular economy. 　　三是加快发展绿色低碳产业。要完善财税、金融、投资等支持政策，培育氢能、绿色燃料等新增长点。实施固体废物综合治理行动，构建源头减量、过程管控、末端利用和全链条无害化管理的固体废物综合治理体系，强化再生资源循环利用，大力发展循环经济.

• Fourth, continuously advance the tough battle for pollution prevention and control and the optimisation of ecosystems. Deeply implement the campaigns to protect blue skies, clean water, and clean soil, and strengthen the governance of new pollutants. At the same time, coordinate the advancement of major projects for the protection and restoration of important ecosystems, solidly advance the ‘Three-North’ project, strengthen the management of key lakes, implement the integration and optimisation of nature reserves, and accelerate the construction of a nature reserve system with national parks as the main component. 四是持续推进污染防治攻坚和生态系统优化。深入打好蓝天、碧水、净土保卫战，强化新污染物治理。同时，统筹推进重要生态系统保护和修复重大工程，扎实推进“三北”工程攻坚战，加强重点湖泊治理，实施自然保护地整合优化，加快构建以国家公园为主体的自然保护地体系.

• Fifth, enhance the capacity to respond to extreme weather. Next year, it is necessary to strengthen the construction of meteorological monitoring, forecasting, and early-warning systems, further improve monitoring means, raise forecasting accuracy, strengthen the linkage between meteorological early warnings and disaster early warnings, urgently make up for shortcomings in flood control, drainage, and disaster-resistance infrastructure in northern regions, and enhance disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities. 五是提高应对极端天气能力。明年要加强气象监测预报预警体系建设，进一步完善监测手段，提高预报精准度，加强气象预警与灾害预警联动，加紧补齐北方地区防洪排涝抗灾基础设施短板，提高防灾减灾能力.

The next question is on employment. The officials say that “the employment situation faces some new changes and challenges due to various factors such as changes in export structure, industrial structure transformation and upgrading, and the development of new technologies, which require close attention.” 但也要看到，受出口结构变化、产业结构转型升级、新技术发展等多方面因素影响，就业形势面临一些新变化新挑战，需要高度重视.

We then get five points:

• First, increase the driving force of economic development on employment. Adhere to employment priority, strengthen the driving effect of various policies such as fiscal, monetary, investment, consumption, and industrial policies on employment. Increase policy support for labour-intensive industries such as construction, accommodation and dining; strengthen coordination among scientific and technological innovation, industrial development, employment stability, and people’s livelihood improvement; and promote the construction of an employment-friendly development model. Coordinate and make good use of support policies such as unemployment insurance rebates for job stabilisation and employment and entrepreneurship subsidies, and strengthen efforts to tap potential and expand capacity for employment positions. 一是提高经济发展对就业的带动力。坚持就业优先，强化财政、货币、投资、消费、产业等各类政策对就业的带动作用。加大对建筑、住宿餐饮等劳动密集型行业的政策支持，加强科技创新、产业发展、就业稳定、民生改善相协同，推动构建就业友好型发展方式。统筹用好失业保险金稳岗返还、就业创业补贴等支持政策，加力就业岗位挖潜扩容.

• Second, focus on stabilising employment of key groups. Next year, university graduates will reach 12.7 million people, hitting a new historical high, and there are also large numbers of key groups such as migrant workers and demobilised military personnel who need employment. We must increase policy support efforts, strengthen guidance on career choices and employment concepts, and support more university graduates to seek employment and start businesses at urban and rural grassroots levels and in small, medium, and micro enterprises. It is necessary to stabilise the employment of migrant workers, consolidate the responsibilities of labor-importing and labor-exporting regions in stabilising employment, and coordinate support for returning migrant workers to start businesses in their hometowns and find employment locally. Do well in employment service guarantees for demobilised military personnel. 二是着力稳定重点群体就业。明年高校毕业生将达到1270万人，再创历史新高，还有大量农民工、退役军人等重点群体需要就业。要加大政策支持力度，强化择业和用人观念引导，支持更多高校毕业生到城乡基层、中小微企业就业创业。要稳定农民工就业，压实劳务输入地和输出地稳就业工作责任，统筹支持返乡入乡创业和就地就近就业。做好退役军人就业服务保障.

• Third, vigorously carry out vocational skills training. Focus on high-tech industries and sectors with urgent needs and large employment capacity, and conduct more specialised training programs. In response to the impact of new technological development on employment, conduct training for workers’ job transitions and re-employment. Give full play to the role of leading enterprises, chain-leading enterprises, public training bases, vocational colleges, and training institutions, deeply implement large-scale vocational skills upgrading training actions, and improve the lifelong vocational skills training system. 三是大力开展职业技能培训。聚焦高精尖产业与急需紧缺、就业容量大的行业，开展更多专项培训。针对新技术发展对就业影响，开展劳动者就业转岗培训。发挥好龙头企业、链主企业、公共实训基地、职业院校和培训机构作用，深入实施大规模职业技能提升培训行动，健全终身职业技能培训制度.

• Fourth, promote the healthy development of flexible employment and new forms of employment. Strengthen the system for protecting the rights and interests of workers in flexible employment and new forms of employment, encourage and support their participation in employee insurance, and expand pilot programs for occupational injury protection for those in new forms of employment. Create a fair employment environment, and strive to eliminate employment discrimination and unreasonable restrictions based on gender, age, and other factors. 四是推动灵活就业、新就业形态健康发展。加强灵活就业和新就业形态劳动者权益保障制度建设，鼓励支持参加职工保险，扩大新就业形态人员职业伤害保障试点。营造公平就业环境，努力消除性别、年龄等就业歧视和不合理限制.

• Fifth, strengthen analysis of the employment situation and monitoring and early warning. Track and analyze employment conditions in key fields, key industries, key regions, and key groups, strengthen in-depth analysis and assessment of the employment situation, promptly identify and resolve incipient and emerging risks and hidden dangers, and strengthen the reserve of employment policy tools. 五是加强就业形势分析与监测预警。跟踪分析重点领域、重点行业、重点地区、重点群体就业情况，加强对就业形势的穿透式分析研判，及时排查化解苗头性倾向性风险隐患，加强就业政策储备.

The final question is on the measures that will be taken next year to stabilise the real estate market. The answer says that in the past year, “real estate development investment has continued a downward trend; this is the result of various localities digesting inventory and strictly controlling increments, and is a rational choice by real estate enterprises in response to the current market situation. This should be objectively analyzed and correctly viewed.” 房地产开发投资延续下降态势，这是各地消化库存、严控增量的结果，是房企应对当前市场形势的理性选择，对此要客观分析、正确看待.

Then we are told how one should view the situation:

• First, on the one hand, it is necessary to see that there is still considerable room for high-quality development of China’s real estate sector. From the perspective of rigid demand, in 2024 China’s urbanisation rate of the permanent resident population was 67%, while the urbanisation rate of the registered population was less than 50%. The rigid housing demand of ‘new citizens’, such as newly-registered migrant workers and newly-graduated college students, still needs to be continuously released.

• Second, from the perspective of improvement-oriented demand, although the total stock of urban housing in China is already not small, there are imbalances in location distribution and ownership structure, and the housing satisfaction level of a considerable portion of urban residents is still not high. There exists improvement-oriented demand such as ‘trading in the old for the new’ and ‘trading small for large’. Many cities report that the willingness of some residents to sell old homes and buy new ones has risen. This year, the proportion of second-hand housing transactions has increased from 28% in 2021 to 45%. Overall, ‘good houses’ are not hard to sell, indicating that the potential of improvement-oriented demand remains substantial.

• Third, looking at the development history of the real estate industry in many developed countries, even after urbanization enters a stable period, there is still a considerable amount of housing demand each year, and the added value of the real estate industry consistently maintains a significant proportion of GDP. We still have much work to do in urban renewal, especially in the renovation of dilapidated housing and urban villages, and there remain many tasks in better meeting the rigid and improvement-oriented housing needs of urban residents.

The high-quality development of real estate, therefore, still has considerable prospects. On the other hand, it is necessary to take the construction of a new development model as the driving force to promote high-quality development of real estate. The CEWC has made arrangements for focusing on stabilizing the real estate market and accelerating the construction of a new model for real estate development. The next step is to focus on doing several key things well.” 一方面，要看到我国房地产高质量发展仍有较大空间。从刚性需求看，2024年我国常住人口城镇化率为67%，而户籍人口城镇化率不足50%，新落户农民工、新毕业大学生等“新市民”刚性住房需求有待持续释放。从改善性需求看，尽管我国城镇住房总量已经不小，但区位分布、持有结构不均衡，相当部分城镇居民住房满意度还不够高，存在“以旧换新”“以小换大”的改善性需求。不少城市反映，一些群众卖旧房买新房的意愿上升，今年二手房交易占比已从2021年的28%提高至45%，“好房子”总体不愁卖，说明改善性需求潜力还很大。从很多发达国家房地产业发展历程看，在城镇化进入稳定期后，每年仍有数量可观的住房需求，房地产业增加值在GDP中的占比始终保持在相当比例。我们在城市更新特别是危旧房和城中村改造方面还有很多工作要做，更好满足城镇居民刚性和改善性住房需求的任务还不少，房地产高质量发展仍有可观前景。另一方面，要以构建新模式为牵引推动房地产高质量发展。中央经济工作会议对着力稳定房地产市场、加快构建房地产发展新模式作出部署。下一步，重点要抓好几件事.

Then we get three points:

• First, exert force from both supply and demand sides to stabilise the market. On the supply side, strictly control incremental supply and activate existing stock, encourage purchase of stock commercial property for reasonable uses such as affordable housing, accelerate digestion of inventory, and at the same time promote the construction of ‘good houses’ in an orderly manner. On the demand side, adopt more targeted measures to fully release residents’ rigid and improvement-oriented demand.

• Second, actively promote transformation and development of real estate enterprises. Support real estate enterprises in accelerating transformation from mainly new home sales toward more property holding and provision of high-quality diversified residential services. At the same time, further leverage the role of the ‘guaranteed delivery of homes’ white-list mechanism, and support reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises.

• Third, accelerate construction of a new model for real estate development. Reform and improve fundamental systems related to real estate development, financing, and sales; reasonably grasp the timing of introduction of various fundamental systems of the new real estate development model; deepen housing provident fund system reform; gradually roll out the approach of ‘establishing the new and breaking the old’; and promote a smooth transition between the new and old models.

一是从供需两端发力稳市场。供给端要严控增量、盘活存量，鼓励收购存量商品房用于保障性住房等合理用途，加快消化库存，同时有序推动“好房子”建设。需求端要采取更多针对性措施，充分释放居民刚性和改善性需求。二是积极推动房地产企业转型发展。支持房企加快从以新房销售为主向更多持有物业、提供高品质多样化居住服务转型。同时，要进一步发挥“保交房”白名单制度作用，支持房企合理融资需求。三是加快构建房地产发展新模式。改革完善房地产开发、融资、销售等基础制度，合理把握房地产发展新模式各项基础制度出台时机，深化住房公积金制度改革，渐进推开立“新”破“旧”，推动新旧模式平稳转换.