Xinhua Commentary on Biden Blocking Nippon Steel Deal - Sun Zhuangzhi on 'Window of Opportunity' for Ukraine Deal - Shen Yi: BRICS Expansion Allows Global South to Pursue 'Greater Autonomy'
The People’s Daily today was rather uninteresting. The front page had a feature previewing the CCDI plenary session, which begins today. I am going to wait for reporting from the session to get something substantive to cover. In the meantime, I thought I’d highlight three interesting pieces that I read in Chinese media today.
First, there’s a Xinhua commentary on the Biden administration’s decision to block Nippon Steel’s acquisition of US Steel. It argues that the move is another example of the US “putting political considerations above economic logic and generalising the concept of ‘national security’ to practice protectionism.” 美国政府这一决定，是将政治考量凌驾于经济逻辑之上、泛化“国家安全”概念行保护主义之实的又一例证.
The commentary says:
“Tetsuo Kotani, a professor at Meikai University in Japan, argues that the US government’s claim of security risks is merely a pretext. Hidetoshi Tashiro, chief economist at Infinity LLC., says that the essence of this acquisition is an ‘economic action’ by Nippon Steel aimed at maximizing profits, while the US obstruction is entirely driven by ‘political considerations’. ‘From a historical perspective, this is yet another instance of the US implementing trade protectionist measures to suppress Japan’. In recent years, the US has been obsessed with wielding the ‘tariff stick’, continuously escalating unilateral sanctions, pursuing a ‘small yard, high fence’ approach and ‘decoupling and breaking chains’. From the slogan of ‘America First’ to the signing and implementation of the ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ and ‘CHIPS and Science Act’, to the unlimited expansion of the concept of ‘national security’ ... the US has infused protectionism into an increasing number of industries.” 日本明海大学教授小谷哲夫认为，美国政府拿安全风险说事完全是借口。日本无限合同会社首席经济学家田代秀敏表示，此次收购案本质上是日铁基于利益最大化的“经济行为”，而美方的阻挠完全出于“政治考量”。“从历史角度来看，这是美国再一次采取贸易保护措施打压日本。”近年来，美国沉迷于挥舞“关税大棒”，持续升级单边制裁，搞“小院高墙”“脱钩断链”。从“美国优先”的口号到《通胀削减法案》《芯片和科学法案》的签署实施，再到无限泛化的“国家安全”概念……美国把保护主义渗透进更多行业.
“Any enterprise or country that threatens America’s hegemonic position can become a target of the US hunt, and even allies are not immune. The US signed the Plaza Accord with Japan using coercion. This dealt a heavy blow to Japan’s economic vitality and led Japan to experience the ‘lost 30 years’; it adopted ‘long-arm jurisdiction’ and other means to ‘dismember’ the French manufacturing firm Alstom, which eventually led to its main power business being acquired by its American competitor General Electric; it imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum products from the European Union and other countries and regions; it restricted the free trade of ASML, a Dutch lithography giant, and included more foreign companies in the export control ‘Entity List’ ... such unilateral and protectionist measures disrupt the normal operation of global industrial and supply chains, seriously infringe upon enterprises' legitimate rights and interests, destroy the fairness and stability of international economic and trade cooperation, and show none of the free market spirit of openness, inclusiveness, and cooperation that the US preaches to other countries.” 任何威胁美国霸权地位的企业和国家，都有可能成为美国围猎的对象，即便是盟友也不能幸免。以胁迫手段与日本签订“广场协议”，沉重打击日本经济元气，致使日本进入“失去的三十年”；采取“长臂管辖”等手段“肢解”法国制造业代表性企业阿尔斯通，最终导致其主营电力业务被竞争对手美国通用电气公司收购；对欧盟等多个国家和地区的钢铁和铝产品加征关税；限制荷兰光刻机巨头阿斯麦的自由贸易，将更多外国企业纳入出口管制“实体清单”……此类单边主义和保护主义措施，扰乱全球产业链供应链的正常运转，严重侵害企业的合法权益，破坏国际经贸合作的公平与稳定，毫无美国向别国鼓吹的开放、包容、合作的自由市场精神.
The commentary adds that this year marks the 30th anniversary of the establishment of the WTO. It says that the US “has become the biggest ‘violator’ of WTO rules, with “two-thirds of the WTO’s violations caused by the US.” “As a consequence, the US has simply refused to implement the WTO’s rulings, paralysing the WTO’s Appellate Body. The US approach to international law and international rules is ‘use if it suits, abandon if it doesn’t suit’, ‘liberalism when prospering and protectionism when facing adversity’; the essence is to seek its own selfish interests. 今年是世贸组织成立三十周年。美国作为缔约国之一、多边贸易体制的重要创立者，却成了迄今为止最大的“违规者”：世贸组织三分之二的违规由美国引起。因此，美国干脆拒绝执行世贸组织裁决，使世贸组织上诉机构陷入“瘫痪”。美国对于国际法和国际规则“合则用、不合则弃”“达则自由主义，逆则保护主义”，其本质是谋求一己私利.
The commentary then says that US Steel’s failings are due to “over-protectionism”. It adds:
“The decline of the US steel industry from prosperity is deeply connected to the US economy’s development path of ‘moving away from the real towards the virtual’, while the long-term trade protection policies implemented to cope with overseas competition have led to persistently high domestic steel prices in the US, no improvement in steel mills’ profitability, and caused downstream industries like automobiles and construction to pay a heavy price in global competition. Bloomberg reported last year that in the past decade, US protectionist measures related to the steel industry have not prevented the loss of manufacturing jobs, and have rather increased costs in other areas of the US economy, reducing industry competitiveness.” 事实上，美国的保护主义措施只会适得其反。作为世界上首家市值突破10亿美元的企业，美国钢铁公司曾被誉为美国钢铁行业的名片，如今却陷入被收购的窘境，这是因为美国政府保护不力吗？恰恰相反，过度保护才是美钢失去市场竞争力的重要原因之一。美国钢铁行业由盛转衰与美国经济“脱实向虚”的发展历程有着深刻的联系，而为了应对海外竞争实施的长期贸易保护政策，导致美国国内钢材价格居高不下，钢厂盈利能力不见改善，让汽车、建筑等下游行业在全球竞争中付出沉重代价。美国彭博社去年刊文指出，过去十年美国采取钢铁保护主义措施，并未阻止美国金属制造业就业岗位流失，还增加了美国经济其他领域成本，降低了行业竞争力. (Note: The emphasis on real to virtual is as much a comment about the US economy as it is a message domestically. One of the primary concerns articulated by Xi Jinping has been about the flow of capital in China to what he calls the virtual and speculative economy.)
Towards the end, the article quotes from Nippon Steel and US Steel’s joint statement, saying that the Biden administration’s decision “sends a chilling message to any company based in a U.S. allied country contemplating significant investment in the United States.”
Second, Sun Zhuangzhi, Director of the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, discussed the prospect of a deal to end the war in Ukraine. Sun argued there may be a “window of opportunity” to achieve a ceasefire or end the conflict in 2025.
He believes “that the goals of both sides have changed. In the past, the goal was to win at all costs, but now it is about not losing, and both sides feel enormous pressure.”
Sun argues that the reasons for the change in goals are:
First, the immense consumption on the battlefield, with human and material resources being stretched to their limits. For Russia, it is difficult to maintain this wartime economy for an extended period of time. For Ukraine, the continuous large fiscal deficits and the need for more Western aid are pressing issues. If US aid were to stop, it would be a huge problem for Ukraine.
Second, there is tremendous political pressure. Both sides realise that fully defeating the other is difficult, but neither can afford to retreat. For the leaders of both countries, compromise would mean total failure, so there is no room for concession.
Third, there are huge escalation costs. Both sides understand that escalating the conflict would mean paying an even higher price. So on the one hand, both sides are continuing to test each other’s bottom line, and on the other, they have reservations.
谈到俄乌冲突持续近3年后出现的新特征，孙壮志认为，冲突双方的目标有所变化，过去是必须要赢，现在是不能输，双方感觉到压力非常大。之所以目标发生变化，孙壮志认为，第一是巨大的战场消耗，人力、物力的投入接近极限。对俄罗斯来说，战时经济要长期维持这样的状态很困难。对乌克兰来说，连年财政赤字巨大，还需要西方给它更多的援助。如果美国的援助停止了，对乌克兰来说是非常大的难题。第二是巨大的政治压力。双方都意识到要完全战胜对方很难，但是又不能退让。对于两国的领导人来说，妥协意味着彻底失败，所以没有退让的空间。第三是巨大的升级成本。双方都意识到如果冲突升级，意味着要付出更大的成本。所以双方一方面不断试探对方底线，另一方面又有所保留.
Sun adds that for both sides things are already rather bad and it shouldn’t get any worse than this. From this perspective, there may be a ‘window of opportunity’ to resolve the conflict or achieve a ceasefire; both sides realize that it is actually very difficult to ultimately defeat the other side. 孙壮志表示，对于冲突双方来说，现在局势已经很差了，应该不会再差到哪儿去。从这个角度来说，可能会出现解决问题或者实现停火的“机会窗口”，双方都意识到要最终战胜对方实际上是非常困难的.
“Sun believes that this year, there is a possibility of high-level talks between Russia and the US. Trump will actively strive for this, and Putin has also said he is ready and can meet with Trump anytime, as long as the conditions are appropriate. In addition to Russia-US talks, Russia-EU dialogue is also possible, and Ukraine might even be invited to participate. However, he also pointed out that dialogue does not equate to peace talks. It is difficult for Russia and Ukraine to negotiate face to face and come up with a solution to the conflict. Currently, both sides claim they are open to talks, but the conditions they propose are far apart.” 孙壮志认为，今年俄美有可能实现高层对话。特朗普会积极争取，普京也说准备好了，随时可以和特朗普见面，只要提出的条件合适，两人就可以谈。除了俄美，俄欧对话也都是可能的，甚至会邀请乌克兰参加。不过他也表示，对话不等于是和谈。让俄乌面对面谈判，拿出解决冲突的方案很难。现在是双方都表示可以和谈，但提出的条件相距甚远.
If you haven’t yet heard it, do check out my new bi-weekly podcast, The Great Power show. In the first episode, I speak to former Indian National Security Advisor Shivshankar Menon about the churn in the world order. You can also access the podcast via my Substack, on Apple Podcasts via Substack or Spotify below.
Third, in an article dated January 1, 2025, in the Global Times, Director of the Centre for BRICS Studies at Fudan University, Shen Yi, discussed the evolution of the BRICS with new partners joining. He writes that on January 1, 2025, nine countries, including Belarus, Bolivia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Thailand, Cuba, Uganda, Malaysia and Uzbekistan, officially became BRICS partner countries.
Shen adds:
This is “another successful strategic practice of the ‘BRICS+’ mechanism proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping at the BRICS Xiamen Summit in 2017. Nine countries from the Global South becoming BRICS partner countries not only reflects the trend of the global economic centre of gravity shifting towards the Global South but also provides an important perspective for understanding the deep driving forces of restructuring of power in the international system.” ...是2017年中国国家主席习近平在金砖国家厦门峰会提出的“金砖+”机制的又一次战略性成功实践。9个来自“全球南方”的国家成为金砖国家伙伴国，不仅体现了全球经济重心向“全球南方”转移的趋势，也为理解国际体系中权力重构的深层动力提供了重要视角.
“The concept of BRICS cooperation partners transcends the traditional economic cooperation framework. As representatives of emerging economies and developing countries, the BRICS cooperation mechanism has carried the call for establishing a more equitable international order since its inception, and countries joining this mechanism are regarded as important partners sharing this vision. Partnership not only implies collaboration in economic and financial fields but also includes joint efforts in global governance reform, technological innovation, and social development. The addition of new members enhances BRICS’ geopolitical and economic representation, injecting new momentum into the formation of a multipolar world.” 金砖国家合作伙伴的概念超越了传统经济合作框架。作为新兴经济体与发展中国家的代表，金砖合作机制从创建之初便承载着建立更公平国际秩序的诉求，加入这一机制的国家被视为共享这一愿景的重要参与者。合作伙伴不仅意味着经济和金融领域的协作，还包括在全球治理改革、技术创新以及社会发展等方面的共同努力。新成员的加入，使金砖国家的地缘政治和经济代表性得以提升，为多极化世界的形成注入了新的动力.
“The backdrop of BRICS’ expansion is the pursuit and desire of the ‘Global South’ for a more fair and reasonable international order in the new era. In the past decades, after the end of the Cold War, although the first round of globalisation led by Western countries, stressing on the so-called ‘common values’ and ‘rules’, did promote economic development, it also made all parties generally realise the intensification of global inequality, as well as Western countries’ increasingly apparent lack of sustainable and effective leadership capability. There is a large amount of evidence proving that the international economic system dominated by Western countries is structurally unfair to the Global South countries, including but not limited to insufficient representation of developing countries in decision-making in organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, which objectively puts Global South countries at a long-term disadvantage.” 金砖扩员的时代背景，是“全球南方”在新时期对更加公平合理的国际秩序性安排的追求与渴望。在过去几十年里，冷战结束之后，虽然西方国家主导下的、强调所谓“共同价值观”和“规则”的第一轮全球化确实促进了经济的发展，但同时也让各方普遍认识到其对全球不平等的加剧，以及西方国家日趋明显的缺乏可持续的有效领导能力。大量证据证明，西方国家主导的国际经济体系存在对“全球南方”国家的结构性不公，包括但不限于国际货币基金组织（IMF）和世界银行等组织在决策中对发展中国家的代表性不足，客观上使得“全球南方”国家长期处于不利地位.
At the same time, the world is increasingly feeling the negative impacts and shocks that can come from the abuse of hegemony by dominant Western countries, especially the structural hegemonic power with dollar hegemony at the core. In sharp contrast, the achievements made by the BRICS countries in their own development and collaborative development, their adherence to and promotion of the multi-polarization of the international system, and the development needs and preferences for participating in international mechanisms faced by Global South countries including BRICS countries. As a result, joining the BRICS mechanism in a flexible and adaptable manner has naturally become a widely recognised and increasingly accepted pragmatic model for global cooperation. 与此同时，世界日趋感受到占据主导地位的西方国家滥用自身霸权，尤其是以美元霸权为核心的结构性霸权权力可能带来的负面影响和冲击。与此形成鲜明对比的是，金砖国家在自身发展以及协同发展中取得的成就，对国际体系多极化的坚持与推进，以及对包括金砖国家在内的“全球南方”国家面临的发展需求及参与国际机制的偏好，都有深刻的体认。由此，用富于弹性和灵活性的方式加入金砖机制，成为一种顺理成章、日趋得到普遍认可的、务实的全球合作模式.
“From a practical perspective, against the backdrop of continuously rising traditional geopolitical risks, becoming a BRICS partner country provides Global South countries with a more inclusive, flexible and resilient set of diversified choices. Joining the ‘Greater BRICS’ as partner countries not only provides opportunities for economic cooperation, but also creates conditions for developing countries to voice opinions and participate in global governance reform. Through the BRICS platform, the Global South’ can break free from the so-called pressure to ‘choose sides’ within the traditional geopolitical framework and pursue greater autonomy in a multipolar world.” 从实践看，在传统地缘政治风险持续提升的大背景下，金砖国家伙伴国为“全球南方”国家提供了一种更具包容性、灵活性和韧性的多样化选择。以伙伴国身份加入“大金砖”，不仅提供了经济合作的机会，还为发展中国家发声和参与全球治理改革创造了条件。通过金砖国家平台，“全球南方”得以摆脱传统地缘政治视角中所谓“选边站”的压力，在多极化世界中追求更大的自主性.
“At the level of development philosophy and pathways, BRICS emphasizes inclusive development, which aligns closely with the development aspirations of many Global South countries. It is reasonable to believe that the inclusion of new members will help BRICS’ pragmatic cooperation continuously improve global representation, garnering more support and recognition. At the same time, the addition of new members has infused vitality and diversity into the BRICS cooperation mechanism. This expansion has enhanced BRICS’ global influence, significantly strengthening its voice in international affairs. The BRICS mechanism is no longer confined to traditional economic cooperation but is gradually expanding into areas such as international security, technological innovation, and cultural exchange. The nine new partner countries, with their wide geographic distribution and diverse historical and cultural backgrounds, on the one hand, help enhance the global representation of BRICS; on the other hand, the BRICS cooperation mechanism has not adopted Western-style ideological confrontations or bloc divisions. Its advocacy for a multilateral cooperation model avoids zero-sum games between major powers, offering a more inclusive paradigm for international relations. This openness and flexibility encourage more countries to join the BRICS family, collectively advancing reforms in global governance.” 在发展理念和发展道路层面，金砖国家强调包容性发展，这与许多“全球南方”国家的发展诉求高度一致。有理由相信，新成员的加入，将有助于金砖务实合作持续完善全球代表性，获得更多的支持与认可。同时，新成员的加入为金砖合作机制注入了活力和多样性。这一扩员提升了金砖机制的全球影响力，使其在国际事务中的话语权显著增强。金砖机制已不再局限于传统的经济合作，而是逐渐扩展到国际安全、科技创新和文化交流等领域。此次加入的9个伙伴国，其地理位置分布的广阔性以及各自历史文化背景的多样性，一方面有助于增强金砖国家在全球层面的代表性；另一方面，金砖合作机制并未采取西方式的意识形态对抗或阵营划分。其倡导的多边合作模式避免了大国之间的零和博弈，为国际关系提供了一种更具包容性的范式。这种开放性和灵活性使得更多国家愿意加入金砖大家庭，共同推动全球治理的改革。
Shen then adds:
The impact of the BRICS expansion on the international system can be analysed from three aspects.
First, it has injected new impetus into international multilateral cooperation. Against the backdrop of an increasingly dysfunctional multilateral system dominated by the West, the BRICS mechanism provides an alternative to bridge the global governance deficit. By promoting multipolar development, the BRICS countries have provided certain possibilities for reshaping the international order.
Second, the BRICS cooperation mechanism has initiated internal discussions on healthier operational models and mechanisms for the global financial system beyond the US dollar system. The addition of new members not only enhances the stability of the BRICS currency basket but also supports the advancement of related initiatives. Although this process remains in its early stages, its potential systemic impact cannot be ignored.
Finally, the expansion of the BRICS has enhanced the representativeness and fairness of global governance. As a collective action of developing countries and emerging economies, the BRICS mechanism has broken the monopoly of Western countries in rule-making in traditional international institutions and brought a more balanced perspective to global governance. The expansion of the BRICS countries marks the deepening of cooperation among the ‘Global South’ countries and the acceleration of the global multi-polarisation process. In the face of various challenges in the current international system, the BRICS mechanism provides a potential cooperation platform. By promoting inclusive development, advocating multilateralism and reforming the global governance system, the BRICS countries and their partners have made important contributions to shaping a more equitable international order. Although this process is constrained by many complex factors, its prospects undoubtedly bring hope for building a multipolar world.
金砖国家的扩员对国际体系的影响可以从三个方面分析。首先，它为国际多边合作注入了新的动力。在西方主导的多边体系日渐失灵的背景下，金砖机制为弥合全球治理赤字提供了替代方案。通过推动多极化发展，金砖国家为重塑国际秩序提供了一定可能性。其次，金砖国家的合作机制在美元体系之外，展开了对更加健康的全球金融体系运行模式与机制建设的内部讨论。新成员加入不仅增加了金砖货币篮子的稳定性，也为推动相关实践提供了支持。虽然这一进程仍处于初级阶段，但其潜在的系统性影响不可忽视。最后，金砖国家的扩员增强了全球治理的代表性与公平性。作为发展中国家和新兴经济体的集体行动，金砖机制打破了传统国际机构中西方国家垄断规则制定的局面，为全球治理带来了更为平衡的视角。金砖国家的扩员标志着“全球南方”国家合作的深化和全球多极化进程的加速。面对当前国际体系中的种种挑战，金砖机制提供了一个充满潜力的合作平台。通过推动包容性发展、倡导多边主义和改革全球治理体系，金砖国家及其合作伙伴为塑造更加公平的国际秩序作出了重要贡献。尽管这一进程面临诸多复杂因素的制约，但其前景无疑为构建多极化世界带来了希望.