Ageing China - Ren Lixuan on Dual Circulation - Wang Yi's Central Asian Diplomacy
Here are the stories and pieces from the May 12, 2021, People’s Daily edition that I found noteworthy.
Page 1: Let’s begin with a new set of opinions from the Central Committee. This one’s about the Selection of First Secretaries and Task Forces in Key Villages. The document emphasises the need to focus on areas where tasks related to poverty alleviation are still difficult. In terms of the criteria for selection of candidates, the document prioritises “good political quality” and someone who is “resolute in implementing the party’s theory and line, principles and policies.” Of course, this is like a job advert so you have other aspects about professionalism, enthusiasm for rural work, dedication, innovative spirit and so on.
In addition, the “first secretary must be a formal party member of the Communist Party of China, with more than 1 year of party experience and more than 2 years of work experience.” The method for candidate nomination entails a combination of “individual registration and organizational recommendation.” Also, the term of office of the first secretary and staff members is generally not less than 2 years. Each first secretary should ideally have a 2-member team, but there is flexibility that is afforded depending on the situation.
The key tasks for the first secretaries are:
Building party organisation: Apart from party building, this entails “promoting village cadres and party members to deeply study and faithfully practice Xi Jinping’s new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics.”
Economic development: This not only covers income and prosperity but also construction of ecological civilization
Promoting rural governance: This entails “promoting a sound rural governance system that combines autonomy, the rule of law, and the rule of morality led by the party organization.” There’s a lot in there about autonomy in governance, and a reference to follow “democratic consultation,” enhance “grid management” and resolve contradictions.
Serving the people: This relates to livelihood issues aimed at “strengthening the relationship between the party and the masses” and ensuring that people feel a sense of gain.
The next few sections are about the assessment and appraisal process along with allowances that are permitted.
Second, a report that tells us that 15 teams of disciplinary inspectors have been assigned as part of the 7th round of inspections. This round targets the Party units in the Ministry of Education and 31 universities across the country. PD has a full list of these, if you’d like. The report also says that the inspection teams will be stationed at the units assigned to them for around two months, during which telephone lines and mailboxes will be set up to solicit complaints and reports on the breach of discipline by Party officials.
Apart from focussing on studying and implementing Xi Jinping’s socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era and his “important exposition on education” and improving political judgement and execution, the teams, as per the report, will “keep a close eye on the ‘top leaders’ and leading bodies and thoroughly find political deviations. Efforts should be made to discover and promote the resolution of the main contradictions and deep-seated problems that restrict the high-quality development of higher education, and promote universities to better shoulder the important task of cultivating socialist builders and successors with all-round development of moral, intellectual and physical capabilities.”
Third, we have a report on the much anticipated census data. NBS said yesterday that as of November 1, 2020, “the total population of the country was 1,41.78 million, which was compared with the total of 1,339.72 million in the sixth census in 2010. Compared with the population, an increase of 72.06 million people, an increase of 5.38%, and an average annual growth rate of 0.53%.” The story quotes NBS chief Ning Jizhe as saying that while growth has slowed down, it remains steady.
Also note, the size of the household population is shrinking. The report says that, “there are 494.16 million households nationwide...The average population of each household is 2.62 persons, 0.48 persons less than the 3.10 persons in 2010.” This Caixin informs is down from 3.1 persons 10 years earlier.
Geographic Spread of Population:
Eastern region: 39.93%, up by 2.15% from 2010
Central region: 25.83%, down by 0.79% from 2010
Western region: 27.12%, up by 0.22% from 2010
Northeast region: 6.98%, down by 1.2% from 2010
“The gender structure of the population continues to improve. The male population is 723.34 million, accounting for 51.24%; the female population is 688.44 million, accounting for 48.76%. The sex ratio of the total population (100 women and the ratio of men to women) is 105.07, which is basically the same as in 2010, but slightly lower...The sex ratio at birth in China was 111.3, a decrease of 6.8 from 2010.”
Age-wise Population:
0 and 14 is 253.38 million, accounting for 17.95%; up by 1.35% from 2010
15 and 59 is 893.8 million, accounting for 63.35%; down by 6.79% from 2010
60 and over is 264.02 million, accounting for 18.70%; up by 5.74% from 2010
Also note this data point which isn’t in the report. There were 12 million births last year, which represents an 18% drop from the 14.65 million the year before. The trend line is clearly problematic for China. Also note this from Caixin’s report:
“‘China’s aging process is accelerating,’ Ning said, adding that the elderly population has multiple characteristics. The Chinese mainland has 31 provinces and regions, 16 of which have more than 5 million elderly residents, and six with 10 million, Ning said. He also said there are obvious differences in the level of aging between rural and urban areas, with more elderly residents living in rural areas. In 2020, the proportion of people aged over 60 and over 65 years old in rural areas was 23.8% and 17.7%, respectively, higher than in cities and towns. Currently, China has a working-age population of 880 million, which means labor resources are still abundant, Ning said. “The average age of the population is 38.8 years, still young and strong on the whole,” he said, adding that it’s nearly the same as the U.S.’ population.”
Anyway, on the urban-rural divide, “the population living in cities and towns is 901.99 million, accounting for 63.89%; the population living in rural areas is 509.79 million, accounting for 36.11%.”
In terms of the Ethnic Divide:
“The population of Han nationality is 1,286.31 million, accounting for 91.11%; the population of ethnic minorities is 124.47 million, accounting for 8.89%. Compared with 2010, the Han population increased by 4.93%, the population of various ethnic minorities increased by 10.26%, and the proportion of ethnic minorities increased by 0.40%.”
In terms of Education:
“The population with university education is 218.36 million. Compared with 2010, the number of people with university education per 100,000 people rose from 8,930 to 15,467; the average years of education of the population aged 15 and above increased from 9.08 to 9.91, and the illiteracy rate dropped from 4.08% to 2.67%.”
Fourth, Li Keqiang spoke at an event in Beijing about China’s talent incentive systems. He said that the incentives should be focussed on providing more support for basic research that might bring no fame and research that demands a long-term commitment. He also called for more international exchanges and cooperation and wants more outstanding young researchers to be encouraged to play leading roles in major scientific research projects.
Finally, Vice Premier Han Zheng held talks from Beijing with Turkmen Deputy Prime Minister Berdymukhamedov and Turkmen Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov, who are visiting Xi’an. The report says that the talks focussed on promoting cooperation in energy, agriculture, transportation, digital, aerospace, culture, security and other fields. In addition, Han wants the two sides to put together a “five-year plan” that provides “a road map for further comprehensive bilateral cooperation.”
Page 3: Let’s stick to Central Asia with Wang Yi speaking to his Tajik, Uzbek, and Kyrgyz counterparts in Xi’an (English report). They are all there for the second China plus Central Asia (C+C5) foreign ministers meeting, Xinhua informs. The report talks about Wang promising deeper development cooperation with BRI being the key component in all this. And each of the other diplomats basically agree. Kyrgyzstan’s Chingiz Aidarbekov offered support on Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Taiwan and China’s core interests. Uzbekistan Abdulaziz Kamilov said that he “fully supports China in safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity” and promised to work on “combating the three evil forces” of terrorism, separatism, and extremism. Sirojiddin Muhriddin said that Tajikistan “would continue to support the one-China principle.”
While in Xi’an, Wang also attended the opening of the Fifth Silk Road International Expo and China East-West Cooperation and Investment and Trade Fair. He said at the event:
“It is even more necessary to work together to overcome the difficulties (owing to the pandemic), unswervingly deepen Belt and Road cooperation, and promote the early recovery and growth of the world economy.” He “put forward four propositions in this regard: First, face the challenge of the epidemic and deepen public health cooperation in an all-round way. The second is to focus on interconnection and consolidate the foundation for higher-level connectivity. The third is to adhere to mutual benefit and win-win results and build a higher-quality economic and trade cooperation platform. The fourth is to focus on green development and create a model project for sustainable development.”
So much for BRI being dead, right?
Third, a report based on Hua Chunying’s response to a Xinhua question yesterday based on Chas W Freeman Jr’s article criticising the US’ China policy. She obviously agreed with the article and added:
“China is not a threat to the United States. Instead, the threat is within the United States itself. The US, for quite some time, especially since the previous administration, has been doing everything it can to resort to the threat of force, political isolation, economic sanctions and technological blockade against China, interferes in China's internal affairs on issues related to Hong Kong, Taiwan and Xinjiang and intimidates and beguiles other countries into forming an anti-China clique. Such practice is illegal and immoral, and will not succeed. It will only harm the interests of the US and its people in the end. The US now begins every conversation with competition and eyes China as a major strategic competitor...China's strategic intent has been open and transparent. We never aim to overtake the US. Instead, our goal is to constantly improve and go beyond ourselves, make sure that Chinese people can live a better life, and that China will contribute more to world peace and development through its own development. As the world's largest economies, China and the US have highly intertwined interests, and we stand for mutually beneficial and win-win cooperation…”
There’s another report on the page with Hua’s comments. This one’s about the Copenhagen Democracy Summit, where the Danish foreign minister hit out China’s sanctions against European individuals and institutions. Hua said that the summit “is nothing short of a political farce filled with ideological bias. Its organizer, the Alliance for Democracies Foundation, was sanctioned by China for gravely undermining China's sovereignty and interests through its longtime efforts to spread malicious lies and disinformation.”
She then told us about Beijing’s views on democracy.
“Democracy is a common value of humanity. There are various ways to realize democracy. True democracy must be rooted in the realities of a country and serve its people. The socialist democracy practiced by China is a whole-process democracy and the most representative democracy. It embodies the will of the people, fits the country's realities and is thus endorsed by the people.” She argued that China’s record in managing the pandemic was an example of its democracy’s success in addressing people’s needs. She then ended: “Democracy is not about throwing a summit and putting forward some slogans, still less should it be used as a political tool to suppress other countries. We hope a handful of European politicians can honor the spirit of democracy and do something real for their people's safety and welfare.”
Finally, two more reports. First, like yesterday, there’s also a report on the page about foreign journalists visiting Xinjiang. This one’s talks about how foreign journalists found out that the traditional culture of the Uighurs has been wonderfully preserved in China. While on the issue of Xinjiang and the population data covered above, also check out this one by NYT’s Amy Lin: “China Targets Muslim Women in Push to Suppress Births in Xinjiang.”
Second, ILD chief Song Tao spoke to Bharrat Jagdeo, General Secretary and Vice President of the Guyana People’s Progressive Party, discussing trade, investment and energy cooperation. I’ve not really read too much about China’s engagement in the Caribbean; but I am sure this would be on the US’ radar.
Page 4: The two historical figures that are covered today are Yun Daiying and Qian Zhuangfei. Yun “was one of the main leaders of the May Fourth Movement in Wuhan,” as per the report. He joined the party in 1921, and became a professor at Shanghai University in 1923. He then quickly rose up the party ranks. He was engaged in the united front work with the KMT and subsequently in 1926, he was sent to the Whampoa Military Academy as the chief political instructor. He participated in the Nanchang Uprising; was then sent to Shanghai to become the Secretary-General of the Propaganda Department and Secretary-General of the Organization Department; and was eventually captured in 1930 and executed by the KMT in 1931.
Qian Zhuangfei, meanwhile, joined the Party in 1926. He was a doctor who ended up working as a spy. Qian was part of the Special Services Section, the predecessor to today’s MSS and MPS. Qian worked his way into the KMT’s intelligence apparatus, becoming a close confidant of the chief Xu Enzeng. He then created space for more CCP moles Li Kenong and Hu Di to enter the system. Peter Mattis’s excellent book Chinese Communist Espionage records that the three men came to be regarded as the “Three Heroes of the Dragon’s Lair (龙潭三杰, longtan san jie).” He writes that the work of these three:
“allowed the communists operating in the cities to stay a step ahead of KMT security organs. Qian in particular furnished actionable intelligence, because his talent and origins earned him a job as the private secretary for Xu Enzeng (U. T. Hsu), the chief of KMT intelligence. From this vantage point, he saw everything that crossed Xu’s desk and more.”
After the Zunyi Conference in 1935, Qian was appointed as the deputy secretary-general of the General Political Department of the Red Army. He died in Guizhou in April of the same year at the age of 39.
Page 7: Another Ren Lixuan 任理轩 commentary on the theory page today. This one talks about the “new development pattern” or dual circulation. This, of course, is referred to as a “strategic choice” that has been made in response to the opportunities and challenges of the new development stage and implementing the new development concept. The author quotes Xi as saying that leading cadres must keep two conditions in mind as the starting point of their planning work.
The first is the “strategic overall situation for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, and the other is the major changes in the world unseen in a century.” In other words, keep in mind the domestic situation, i.e., unbalanced and uneven development, technological deficiencies, desire for high-quality growth, etc, along with the trend of technological advancements, challenges to globalisation with unilateralism and protectionism on the rise, and the weakening of the “traditional international cycle.”
“While China has become the world's second largest economy and is deeply integrated with the world economy and international system, the comparative advantage of China's development is also changing from the low-cost advantage of labor and other factors to the advantages of solid material foundation, abundant human capital, broad market space, complete industrial system and supporting capacity, and massive data resources.”
He then talks about the reduced dependence on foreign trade, i.e., “the dependence on foreign trade has dropped from 67% in 2006 to nearly 32% in 2019. Since the onset of the international financial crisis in 2008, the contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth has exceeded 100% in seven years. In the coming period, the domestic market will dominate the cycle of the national economy, and the domestic demand potential of economic growth will continue to be released.”
“Under the conditions of changes in the factor endowments of my country’s development, under the external environment of unilateralism and protectionism in some countries, as well as the downturn in the world economy and shrinking global markets, it is a strategic choice to speed up the construction of a new development pattern and make production, distribution, circulation and consumption rely more on the domestic market.”
He then adds:
“Constructing a new development pattern, accelerating the cultivation of a complete domestic demand system and improving people's quality of life will not only solve the problem of insufficient domestic development imbalance and meet the challenge of weakening the traditional international economic cycle, but also create new space and provide new opportunities for development.”
But doing this effectively, requires “breaking through the blocking points in production, distribution, circulation and consumption, strengthening key core technologies in production, maintaining the safety and stability of industrial chain supply chain, optimizing income distribution structure and expanding middle-income groups in distribution, building a modern circulation system in circulation, realizing smooth flow of goods, optimizing consumption environment and promoting consumption...”
The next set of arguments is about how “in the long run, economic globalization is still the historical trend” but for the moment, improving the domestic cycle will place China in a position of strength by “improving the quality and allocation level of China’s production factors, and promoting the transformation and upgrading of China’s industry.”
The author writes:
“China’s manufacturing is deeply integrated into the global industrial chain and supply chain, and its position in the international cycle has become increasingly prominent. Building a new development pattern does not mean a decline in the status of opening to the outside world. Instead, it is necessary to further open the door to opening up and realize the mutual promotion of domestic and international double circulation.”
What this means is later explained as:
“we should promote the construction of a strong domestic market and trade power, form a strong gravitational field for global resource factors, promote the coordinated development of domestic and external demand, imports and exports, introduction of foreign investment and outward investment, better connect the domestic and international markets, strengthen the leading role of the domestic circulation, and enhance the efficiency and level of the domestic circulation with the international circulation, so as to open up space for China's economic development, promote mutual benefit and win-win development with other countries, and add momentum to the recovery and growth of the world economy.”
Essentially, dual circulation is not about isolation but rather building interlinkages and attracting high-quality investment and spending abroad for technological advancement, with the aim to expand global engagement and leverage, while boosting domestic development.
This is underscored further by this quote from Xi.
“The most essential feature of building a new development pattern is to achieve a high level of self-reliance. We must pay more attention to independent innovation, comprehensively strengthen the deployment of scientific and technological innovation, pool superior resources, and vigorously and orderly promote innovation and tackle key problems.”
The author then writes: “At present, the situation wherein some key core technologies are controlled by others has not fundamentally changed.” He talks about how many Chinese companies remain at the lower end of the global value chain. He, therefore, calls for persisting “in the core position of innovation in the overall situation of China's modernization drive, taking science and technology self-reliance as the strategic support of national development, implementing the strategies of rejuvenating the country through science and education, strengthening the country's strategic scientific and technological strength...fighting for key core technologies” along with modernising industrial chain and “firmly grasping the initiative of innovation and development in our own hands.”