Analysis of Politburo's Meeting on the Economy - Zhang Ming on Why Tariffs & Rising Treasury Yields Signal Trouble for America
Let’s begin with the two key reports from the paper over the weekend. First, on Saturday, there was a report on the Politburo meeting to discuss the current economic situation and economic work.
Some Takeaways:
First, clearly, there is a deep sense of anxiety that this trade war with the US is a long-term challenge. The language of “struggle” being used to describe “international economic and trade” issues informs of a shift in perception in terms of the severity of the challenges of the external trading environment. Such a framing of the issue is also a mobilisational tool for the Party and society. There’s a threat that must be overcome and this will require sacrifices. In that sense, the concept also underscores to the people that tough times are ahead. The report also talks about the importance of “stabilising employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations.” These will be the focus of policy and propaganda ahead.
Second, the report talks about the need to “accelerate the issuance and use of local government special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds.” For context, the NPC this year, we learned that the annual target for local government special-purpose bonds is set at 4.4 trillion yuan, up 500 billion yuan from 2024. Ultra-long special treasury bonds are set for 1.3 trillion, up 300 billion yuan year-on-year, for 2025. Out of this 800 billion yuan is planned for the implementation of major national strategies and security capacity-building in key areas and 500 billion yuan for large-scale equipment upgrading (200 billion - up by 50 billion) and consumer goods trade-in programs, i.e., the Two New (300 billion - up by 150 billion) The Politburo meeting also calls to “increase financial support, expand and improve the implementation of the ‘two new’ policy, and strengthen the implementation of ‘two major’ projects.” So this money is now likely to be loaded faster than the year earlier. Perhaps, more products might be included in the goods exchange programme?
Third the report calls to “cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates in a timely manner, maintain ample liquidity, and strengthen support for the real economy. Create new structural monetary policy tools, establish new policy-based financial instruments to support technological innovation, expand consumption, and stabilise foreign trade.” For context, the last RRR cut was by 0.5 percentage points in September 2024. The average RRR for China’s financial institutions now stands at 6.6%. I wonder what the new “policy-based financial instruments” for consumption and foreign trade are likely to be. The new measures of tax refunds for tourists perhaps are one part of this. The NDRC today said that new “measures will be adopted to boost service consumption, improve eldercare services for disabled seniors, stimulate auto sales, and establish skills-oriented wage distribution systems.” The Politburo meeting report also indicates the use of pension re-lending to support consumption.
Fourth, the report calls to “it is necessary to increase the income of low and middle-income groups” and “clear restrictive measures in the consumption field as soon as possible.” It also talks about the integration of domestic and foreign trade. All of this essentially points to the goal of expanding retail or household consumption. Doing so, however, will require a lot to be done rather quickly, and for greater demand-side stimulus measures. The Party, however, has largely been averse to these, viewing them as welfareism. For example, for domestic retail sales (RMB 48.78 trillion in 2024) to absorb the hit from external demand (export to US was RMB 3.7 trillion in 2024), incomes do need to increase. But that takes time. What’s needed are immediate expansion of disposable cash and strengthening of consumer confidence. One key to this is the real estate market. If the real estate market begins to stabilise, then there is likely to be some certainty among people to spend further. But there is nothing in this report that signifies a change in terms of the broader property market policy.
Fifth, although the Politburo meeting did not announce any specific stimulus, all of these announcements are indicative of far more spending in the months ahead. It, therefore, seems inevitable that the fiscal deficit target of 4% of GDP that was set at the NPC will be overshot. For instance, the Politburo meeting report calls to adopt several measures to help enterprises in difficulty, strengthening financing support for these entities. It adds that “for enterprises greatly affected by tariffs, increase the proportion of unemployment insurance fund refunds for job stabilisation. A stratified and classified social assistance system should be improved.” It also calls to “strengthen extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments.” When it comes to employment, today Zhao Chenxin, NDRC’s deputy head, today said that “the government will encourage businesses to maintain stable staffing levels, intensify vocational skills training, expand work-relief programs, and strengthen public employment services.” He added that to support enterprises, the government will “introduce tailored policies to assist export enterprises in mitigating risks, expand the global presence of service products, and encourage foreign-funded enterprises to reinvest in China.”
The key thing in all of this is that while spending is likely to continue to expand, revenue is shrinking. China’s fiscal revenue in 2024 grew 1.3% from a year earlier, slowing from a 6.4% rise in 2023. Tax revenue fell 3.4% in 2024, while non-tax revenue surged 25.4%. Even in 2025 Q1, overall revenue fell 1.1% year-on-year, while tax revenue fell 3.5%; non-tax revenue expanded 8.5%. This non-tax revenue comprises land use rights sales revenue (which is falling) and fees and fines, among other things. The fees and fines, however, undermine private sector confidence, which Beijing wants to boost. So, you see the catch-22 kind of situation that exists.
Now, to the report:
“The meeting believed that, since the beginning of this year, the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core has strengthened the overall leadership over economic work, all regions and departments have concentrated their efforts on tackling difficulties, various macro policies have worked together with strength, the economy has shown an improving trend, social confidence has continued to be boosted, high-quality development has been steadily advanced, and the overall social situation has remained stable. At the same time, the foundation for the continued recovery and improvement of China’s economy still needs to be further consolidated, and the impact of external shocks has increased. It is necessary to strengthen bottom-line thinking, fully prepare contingency plans, and solidly do a good job in economic work.” 会议认为，今年以来，以习近平同志为核心的党中央加强对经济工作的全面领导，各地区各部门聚力攻坚，各项宏观政策协同发力，经济呈现向好态势，社会信心持续提振，高质量发展扎实推进，社会大局保持稳定。同时，我国经济持续回升向好的基础还需要进一步稳固，外部冲击影响加大。要强化底线思维，充分备足预案，扎实做好经济工作.
The meeting pointed out that it is essential to adhere to the general tone of work of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully, accurately, and comprehensively implement the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, coordinate domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles, unswervingly manager our own affairs well, unswervingly expand high-level opening up, focus on stabilising employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and respond to the uncertainty of the rapid changes in the external environment with the certainty of high-quality development. 会议指出，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，坚定不移办好自己的事，坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性.
The meeting stressed that it is necessary to accelerate the implementation of more proactive and effective macro policies, make full use of and fully utilise a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Accelerate the issuance and use of local government special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds. Firmly secure the bottom line of the ‘three guarantees’ at the grassroots level. Cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates in a timely manner, maintain ample liquidity, and strengthen support for the real economy. Create new structural monetary policy tools, establish new policy-based financial instruments to support technological innovation, expand consumption, and stabilise foreign trade. Strengthen the consistency of policy orientation. 会议强调，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用。兜牢基层“三保”底线。适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕，加力支持实体经济。创设新的结构性货币政策工具，设立新型政策性金融工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、稳定外贸等。强化政策取向一致性.
The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to increase the income of low and middle-income groups, vigorously develop service consumption, and enhance the role of consumption in driving economic growth. Clear restrictive measures in the consumption field as soon as possible, and establish service consumption and pension re-lending. Increase financial support, expand and improve the implementation of the ‘two new’ policy, and strengthen the implementation of ‘two major’ projects. 会议指出，要提高中低收入群体收入，大力发展服务消费，增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用。尽快清理消费领域限制性措施，设立服务消费与养老再贷款。加大资金支持力度，扩围提质实施“两新”政策，加力实施“两重”建设.
The meeting emphasised that several measures should be taken to help enterprises in difficulty. Strengthen financing support. Accelerate the promotion of the integration of domestic and foreign trade. Cultivate and strengthen new quality productive forces and create a number of emerging pillar industries. Continue to promote breakthroughs in key core technologies, innovatively launch a ‘technology board’ in the bond market, and accelerate the implementation of ‘AI+’ actions. Vigorously promote the quality upgrading of key industries, adhere to the guidance of standards, and standardise the order of competition. 会议强调，要多措并举帮扶困难企业。加强融资支持。加快推动内外贸一体化。培育壮大新质生产力，打造一批新兴支柱产业。持续用力推进关键核心技术攻关，创新推出债券市场的“科技板”，加快实施“人工智能+”行动。大力推进重点产业提质升级，坚持标准引领，规范竞争秩序.
The meeting stressed that it is necessary to persist in using the methods of deepening reform and opening up to solve problems in development. Accelerate the construction of a unified national market and earnestly carry out special actions to standardise law enforcement related to enterprises. Intensity of pilot policies for opening up the service industry and strengthen services for enterprises to ‘go global’. Together with the international community, we must actively safeguard multilateralism and oppose unilateral bullying. 会议强调，要坚持用深化改革开放的办法解决发展中的问题。加快全国统一大市场建设，扎实开展规范涉企执法专项行动。加大服务业开放试点政策力度，加强对企业“走出去”的服务。同国际社会一道，积极维护多边主义，反对单边霸凌行径.
The meeting pointed out that efforts should be made to prevent and resolve risks in key areas. Continue to implement the local governments’ debt reduction policy package and accelerate the resolution of the problem of local governments’ arrears of accounts payable to enterprises. Strengthen the implementation of urban renewal actions and promote the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated houses in a vigorous and orderly manner. Accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development, increase the supply of high-quality housing, optimise the acquisition policy of existing commercial housing, and continue to consolidate the stability of the real estate market. Continue to stabilise and activate the capital market. 会议指出，要持续用力防范化解重点领域风险。继续实施地方政府一揽子化债政策，加快解决地方政府拖欠企业账款问题。加力实施城市更新行动，有力有序推进城中村和危旧房改造。加快构建房地产发展新模式，加大高品质住房供给，优化存量商品房收购政策，持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势。持续稳定和活跃资本市场.
The meeting stressed that efforts should be made to protect people’s livelihood. For enterprises greatly affected by tariffs, increase the proportion of unemployment insurance fund refunds for job stabilisation. A stratified and classified social assistance system should be improved. Agricultural production should be strengthened to stabilise the prices of important agricultural products such as grain. The results of poverty alleviation should be consolidated and expanded to effectively connect with rural revitalisation. Work on safety production and disaster prevention and mitigation should be continued. 会议强调，要着力保民生。对受关税影响较大的企业，提高失业保险基金稳岗返还比例。健全分层分类的社会救助体系。加强农业生产，稳定粮食等重要农产品价格。巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接。持续抓好安全生产和防灾减灾等各项工作.
The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to continuously improve the policy toolbox for stabilising employment and the economy, to implement established policies early and ensure results early, to introduce incremental reserve policies in a timely manner according to changes in the situation, to strengthen extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments, and to fully consolidate the fundamentals of economic development and social stability. 会议指出，要不断完善稳就业稳经济的政策工具箱，既定政策早出台早见效，根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策，加强超常规逆周期调节，全力巩固经济发展和社会稳定的基本面.
The meeting stressed that it is necessary to strengthen the Party’s comprehensive leadership over economic work, encourage Party members and cadres to face difficulties and take proactive actions, and establish and practice the correct view of political performance. Earnestly carry out in-depth study and education on the implementation of the spirit of the eight-point central regulations, and create a new situation of high-quality development with new achievements in work style construction. 会议强调，要加强党对经济工作的全面领导，鼓励党员干部迎难而上、主动作为，树立和践行正确政绩观。认真开展深入贯彻中央八项规定精神学习教育，以作风建设新成效开创高质量发展新局面.
On Sunday, the paper published the report of the 20th collective study session of the Politburo. This one focussed on the development and supervision of AI. The guest speaker was Zheng Nanning from Xi’an Jiaotong University.
As per the report, Xi said that “in the face of the new situation of rapid evolution of new-generation AI technology, we must fully leverage the advantages of the new nationwide system, adhere to self-reliance and self-strengthening, focus on application orientation, and promote the healthy and orderly development of China’s AI in beneficial, safe, and fair directions.” 中共中央政治局4月25日下午就加强人工智能发展和监管进行第二十次集体学习。中共中央总书记习近平在主持学习时强调，面对新一代人工智能技术快速演进的新形势，要充分发挥新型举国体制优势，坚持自立自强，突出应用导向，推动我国人工智能朝着有益、安全、公平方向健康有序发展.
The report adds:
Xi said that as a strategic technology leading a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, AI is profoundly changing human production and lifestyles. The Central Committee attaches great importance to AI development, and in recent years, it has improved top-level design and strengthened work deployment in order to promote the overall and systematic leap of China’s comprehensive strength in AI. At the same time, there are still shortcomings in basic theory and key core technologies. We must face the gaps squarely, double our efforts, comprehensively advance technological innovation, industrial development, and empowering application in AI, improve the regulatory system and mechanisms for AI, and firmly grasp the initiative in the development and governance of AI. 习近平在听取讲解和讨论后发表重要讲话。他指出，人工智能作为引领新一轮科技革命和产业变革的战略性技术，深刻改变人类生产生活方式。党中央高度重视人工智能发展，近年来完善顶层设计、加强工作部署，推动我国人工智能综合实力整体性、系统性跃升。同时，在基础理论、关键核心技术等方面还存在短板弱项。要正视差距、加倍努力，全面推进人工智能科技创新、产业发展和赋能应用，完善人工智能监管体制机制，牢牢掌握人工智能发展和治理主动权.
Xi Jinping stressed that to seize opportunities and gain advantages in the field of AI, breakthroughs must be made in basic theories, methods, tools, and other aspects. It is essential to continuously strengthen basic research, concentrate efforts to master/solve the issue of core technologies such as high-end chips and basic software, and build an autonomous, controllable, and collaborative AI basic software and hardware system. Use AI to lead the paradigm shift in scientific research and accelerate scientific and technological innovation breakthroughs in various fields. 习近平强调，人工智能领域要占领先机、赢得优势，必须在基础理论、方法、工具等方面取得突破。要持续加强基础研究，集中力量攻克高端芯片、基础软件等核心技术，构建自主可控、协同运行的人工智能基础软硬件系统。以人工智能引领科研范式变革，加速各领域科技创新突破.
Xi Jinping pointed out that China has rich data resources, a complete industrial system, broad application scenarios and huge market space. It is necessary to promote the deep integration of AI technological innovation and industrial innovation, build an enterprise-led collaborative innovation system of industry, academia, research and application, support traditional industries transform and upgrade, and open up new tracks for the development of strategic emerging industries and future industries. We should coordinate the construction of computing power infrastructure and deepen the development, utilization and open sharing of data resources. 习近平指出，我国数据资源丰富，产业体系完备，应用场景广阔，市场空间巨大。要推动人工智能科技创新与产业创新深度融合，构建企业主导的产学研用协同创新体系，助力传统产业改造升级，开辟战略性新兴产业和未来产业发展新赛道。统筹推进算力基础设施建设，深化数据资源开发利用和开放共享.
Xi Jinping emphasised that as a new technology and field, policy support for AI is very important. We should comprehensively utilise policies such as intellectual property, fiscal taxation, government procurement, and facility opening, and do well in science and technology finance. We should promote AI education across all academic stages and universal education for the whole society, continuously cultivating high-quality talents. We should improve AI scientific research support, career support, and talent evaluation mechanisms, building platforms and creating conditions for all kinds of talents to display their abilities. 习近平强调，人工智能作为新技术新领域，政策支持很重要。要综合运用知识产权、财政税收、政府采购、设施开放等政策，做好科技金融文章。推进人工智能全学段教育和全社会通识教育，源源不断培养高素质人才。完善人工智能科研保障、职业支持和人才评价机制，为各类人才施展才华搭建平台、创造条件。
Xi Jinping pointed out that AI brings unprecedented development opportunities, but also brings unprecedented risks and challenges. We must grasp the trends and laws of AI development, accelerate the formulation and improvement of relevant laws, regulations, policy systems, application standards, and ethical guidelines, and build systems for technology monitoring, risk early warning, and emergency response, to ensure that AI is safe, reliable, and controllable. 习近平指出，人工智能带来前所未有发展机遇，也带来前所未遇风险挑战。要把握人工智能发展趋势和规律，加紧制定完善相关法律法规、政策制度、应用规范、伦理准则，构建技术监测、风险预警、应急响应体系，确保人工智能安全、可靠、可控.
Xi Jinping stressed that AI can be an international public good for the benefit of humanity. It is necessary to extensively carry out international cooperation in AI, help Global South countries strengthen their technical capacity building, and contribute China’s strength to bridging the global intelligence divide. Promote all parties to strengthen the docking and coordination of development strategies, governance rules, and technical standards, and form a globally accepted governance framework and standard norms as soon as possible. 习近平强调，人工智能可以是造福人类的国际公共产品。要广泛开展人工智能国际合作，帮助全球南方国家加强技术能力建设，为弥合全球智能鸿沟作出中国贡献。推动各方加强发展战略、治理规则、技术标准的对接协调，早日形成具有广泛共识的全球治理框架和标准规范.
Page 1: Today, there’s an editorial to mark Labour Day on May 1, and a feature marking the 100th anniversary of the founding of the All-China Federation of Trade Unions. I am not breaking these down.
There’s a report on the State Council executive meeting, which took place on Saturday. Four issues were covered in the discussions:
river and lake protection
measures to further protect the welfare of children in difficulties
draft Medical Security Law of the People’s Republic of China
approval of nuclear power projects such as Phase III of the Sanmen project in Zhejiang
On rivers and lakes, the report says:
“It is necessary to firmly grasp source management, focusing on major rivers, large lakes, strengthening monitoring and tracing, and strictly preventing excessive discharge of industrial wastewater, domestic sewage, and agricultural non-point source pollution. It is necessary to improve long-term mechanisms, adhere to combining dredging and blocking, guide enterprises to implement energy-saving and emission-reduction transformations, support localities in addressing weaknesses in environmental infrastructure, strengthen public awareness of river and lake protection, and create a good atmosphere for the joint construction and sharing of beautiful rivers and lakes.” 要狠抓源头治理，以大江大河、重要湖泊为重点，加强监测溯源，严防工业污水、生活污水、农业面源污染等超标排放。要健全长效机制，坚持疏堵结合，引导企业实施节能减排改造，支持地方补齐环境基础设施短板，增强全民河湖保护意识，营造共建共享美丽河湖的良好氛围.
The paragraph on the Medical Security Law says “it is necessary to strengthen supervision of the medical insurance fund, improve the supervision and inspection mechanisms, and strictly crack down on fraudulent acts such as false medical treatments and false medicine purchases. It is necessary to strengthen legal publicity and education, enhance the awareness of law observance among medical institutions, medical staff, and the public, and regulate medical treatment order and medical behaviours.” 要加强医保基金监管，健全监督检查机制，严厉打击虚假诊疗、虚假购药等欺诈骗保行为。要加强普法宣传教育，提升医疗机构、医务人员和群众守法意识，规范就医秩序和医疗行为.
Finally, the report says: “The meeting emphasised that in developing nuclear power, it is necessary to ensure safety without the slightest error, firmly implement the main responsibility of construction and operating units, construct and operate nuclear power units according to the highest global safety standards, continuously strengthen safety regulatory capacity building, and firmly hold the bottom line of nuclear power safety protection.” 会议强调，发展核电必须确保安全万无一失，要压实参建单位和业主单位主体责任，按照全球最高安全标准建设和运营核电机组，持续加强安全监管能力建设，切实兜牢核电安全保障网.
Next, there’s a report on the meeting of the NPCSC. Xinhua reports:
“Lawmakers reviewed a draft private sector promotion law, draft revisions to the Law on the Prevention and Treatment of Infectious Diseases and to the Arbitration Law, the draft atomic energy law, and a proposal by the chairpersons’ meeting on deliberating a draft environmental code. They also reviewed proposals submitted for deliberation by the State Council, including those on the draft national development planning law, a draft revision to the Prison Law, and reports concerning environmental protection, state-owned asset management and lawmakers’ qualifications, as well as a decision on the appointment and removal of officials, among other bills.”
Page 2: There’s a report on new measures to further optimise its departure tax refund policy to improve the shopping experience of overseas travelers. So basically, Beijing wants more folks to visit and buy in China. Xinhua reports that the minimum refund threshold for departure tax refund is reduced from 500 yuan to 200 yuan. The cash tax refund limit increased from 10,000 yuan to 20,000 yuan.
The report adds:
“The circular also outlines steps to expand the number of departure tax refund stores, enrich the supply of related goods and improve related services. More departure tax refund stores will be set up in major shopping areas, pedestrian streets, tourist sites, resorts, cultural venues, airports, passenger ports and hotels, according to the circular. Departure tax refund stores are encouraged to broaden product offerings to include time-honored brands, renowned Chinese consumer goods, smart devices, intangible cultural heritage items, crafts and specialty products, among others. A series of activities to promote shopping in China will be launched to support local efforts to cultivate and promote high-quality signature products, such as ‘city gifts’ and ‘must-buy’ items, in departure tax refund stores.”
Page 11: There’s a report from the CCDI and NSC. It says that in March this year, a total of 16,994 cases of the violation of the spirit of the 8-point central regulations were investigated and handled nationwide, covering 22,547 people. Out of these, 13,671 people were given Party disciplinary or governmental sanctions.
Among the cases, 8,790 were those of formalism and bureaucratism. Among these, most cases investigated and dealt with - 7,750 cases - were related to ‘failure to take responsibility; failure to act; improper action; or false action in performing duties, serving economic and social development, and protecting the ecological environment, seriously affecting high-quality development’.
There were 8,204 cases of hedonism and extravagance problems.
Page 16: There’s an article by Zhang Ming, Deputy Director at the Institute of Finance and Banking at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Zhang writes that recently, “US 10-year Treasury bond yield rose from 4.01% on April 4 to 4.49% on April 11. This is the largest weekly increase since the September 11 incident in 2001. The surge in yields corresponds to a sharp drop in US bond prices, which in turn have triggered widespread global concerns about systemic risks in the US bond market. Since April, the rapid rise in long-term US treasury yields and the resulting market shock have been driven by four factors.”
First, the US government’s excessive use of tariffs has triggered expectations of re-inflation in the US economy. Market predictions indicate that the mere act of raising US tariffs on China to 245% will significantly increase the prices of imported goods, worsen the living standards of middle and low-income groups in the US, and push up future inflation expectations. The rise in inflation expectations results in narrowed space for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, thereby pushing up long-term treasury yields.
Second, foreign investors’ willingness to purchase US treasury bonds has further declined. In the background of intensified geopolitical competition, European institutional investors have recently significantly reduced their investments in US dollar assets. At the same time, the US Dollar Index has depreciated significantly, and market concerns about the sustainability of the US fiscal deficit and expectations that US long-term interest rates will continue to rise have all reduced foreign investors’ willingness to continue purchasing US bonds in the short term, which will also push up US long-term treasury yields.
Third, the unilateral surge in US treasury yields has led to rapid liquidation of bond basis trades. In the past, there were a large number of leveraged arbitrage trades between Treasury cash bonds and futures in the US bond market. Now, with US long-term treasury yields rising sharply and treasury cash prices plummeting, arbitrageurs engaged in basis trading are forced to close positions to cut losses, resulting in large-scale treasury selling, further raising long-term treasury interest rates.
Fourth, the reputation of US treasury bonds as a global safe asset has been severely undermined. The Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Stephen Miran, recently proposed in a report that in the future, foreign investors should be ‘forced’ to convert their US treasury holdings into ultra-long-term low-interest bonds, and restrict investors from directly selling these treasury bonds in the market. If foreign investors refuse to ‘cooperate’, the US government will impose high taxes on these investors’ returns. This financial bullying behaviour will seriously erode the reputation and credit of US treasury bonds. Given these expectations, current foreign sovereign investors’ willingness to purchase US treasury bonds has significantly decreased, which will also lead to a rise in US treasury yields.
一是美国政府滥施关税引发美国经济再通胀预期。市场预测，仅美国对华关税加征至245%这一举动，就将显著推高其进口商品价格，恶化美国中低收入群体生活水平，并推高其未来通胀预期。通胀预期升高导致美联储降息空间收窄，进而推高长期国债收益率。二是外国投资者购美债意愿进一步下降。在地缘政治博弈加剧背景下，近期欧洲机构投资者投资美元资产的规模明显下降。同时，美元指数显著贬值，市场对美国财政赤字可持续性的担忧及美国长期利率继续上升的预期，都降低了外国投资者短期内继续购买美国债的意愿，这也会推升美长期国债收益率。三是美国债收益率单边飙升导致国债基差交易快速平仓。过去，美国债市场上有大量通过杠杆放大的国债现货与期货套利交易。现在，美长期国债收益率大幅上升，国债现货价格暴跌，导致从事基差交易的套利者被迫平仓止损，从而产生了较大规模的国债卖出，进一步抬升其长期国债利率。四是美国债作为全球安全资产的声誉被严重削弱。白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰近期在一份报告中提出，未来要“强制”外国投资者将所持美债置换为超长期低息债券，并限制投资者直接在市场上出售这些美债。如果外国投资者拒绝“合作”，美国政府将会对这些投资者的投资收益征收高额税收。这种金融霸凌行径将会严重侵蚀美国债的声誉和信用。在相关预期作用下，当前外国主权投资者购买美国债的意愿明显下降，这也将导致美国债收益率上升.
“Overall, fundamental factors, market supply and demand factors, liquidation of arbitrage trading factors, and asset reputation factors have jointly pushed up US long-term treasury interest rates, and the possibility of US long-term treasury yields continuing to rise significantly in the next few months cannot be ruled out, which will undoubtedly bring more risks to the US itself. The rise in bond interest rates will significantly increase the pressure on the US government to repay principal and interest, thereby exacerbating the fiscal deficit. As a large number of US bonds mature this year, the US government will continue to issue treasury bonds, and the cost of issuing treasury bonds at the moment is undoubtedly much higher than in the past. This means that in the coming period, the pressure on the US government to repay principal and pay interest will increase significantly, triggering concerns in the market over the sustainability of US debt. A serious decline in US Treasury credit would ultimately shake the foundations of the dollar’s hegemony. Conversely, global investors’ willingness to invest in other safe assets will become stronger, and they will increasingly turn to other safe assets that possess sufficient liquidity, relatively high returns, and large enough scale.” 整体来看，基本面因素、市场供求因素、套利交易平仓因素与资产声誉因素共同推高了美国长期国债利率，而且不排除未来几个月内美长期国债收益率继续显著上升的可能性，这无疑将给美自身带来更多风险。债券利率上升将显著抬升美国政府的还本付息压力，进而加剧财政赤字。随着年内大量美国债到期，美国政府将会续发国债，而在当下发行国债的成本无疑要比过去高很多。这意味着未来一段时期，美国政府还本付息的压力将会明显加大，并将继续引发市场关于美债务可持续性的担忧。美债信用严重降低，最终动摇的是美元霸权根基。反过来讲，全球投资者对于其他安全资产的投资意愿将更加强烈，会越来越多转向其他具有充分流动性、较高收益、规模足够大的安全资产.