China 'Hawks' Set for Trump Cabinet Posts? - Beijing Targets European Brandy - China-Russia Talks - Lashing Out at 'Evil' Philippine Laws - 'Confidence in Achieving GDP Target is Increasing'

Before I get to today’s edition, let’s cover a couple of interesting stories from outside the paper.

First, WSJ reports that “US President-elect Donald Trump is expected to nominate Senator Marco Rubio of Florida as secretary of state and has asked Representative Mike Waltz, a Green Beret veteran, to be his White House national security adviser, according to people familiar with his thinking. Trump could change his mind on the Rubio move, as he remains fond of others lobbying for the secretary of state role. But people familiar with the Rubio decision said that Trump feels good about going with him; Trump had considered him for the vice president slot before settling on Ohio Sen. JD Vance.”

The report adds:

“Rubio’s expected rise to the nation’s top diplomatic post, earlier reported by the New York Times, would put a more establishment figure into the highest echelons of the Trump administration. A hawk on China, Iran and Cuba, Rubio joined most of Washington in supporting Ukraine against Russia’s invasion. But in recent months he started changing his message, advocating for the conflict to end as soon as possible, last week stating the U.S. was ‘funding a stalemate war’ and that it would take ‘100 years’ to rebuild Ukraine. Trump’s pick comes just hours after he decided to name Waltz, a fellow tough-on-China lawmaker, as national security adviser. Earlier, Trump also chose another Floridian, co-campaign manager Susie Wiles, as his chief of staff. Waltz will step into his cabinet-level role amid prolonged conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and Trump is expected to try to prevent further escalation abroad by building deterrence against foreign rivals while favoring transactional policies with U.S. allies.”

Second, some reporting on China-EU ties amid all this. 

SCMP reports: “The Chinese foreign ministry’s deputy head in charge of European affairs Cao Lei said on Saturday that Trump’s election victory may indicate ‘the turning point of [our] times” and urged Brussels and Beijing to fix rifts and improve ties.’ No one wants to return to the law of the jungle, no one wants to go back to the era of confrontation and the Cold War, and no one wants to return to unilateral hegemony. This is the backdrop that China-EU relations are facing,’ he said.Cao was speaking at the launch of Beijing Foreign Studies University’s China Think-Tank Network on Europe, which aims to foster renewed understanding between the two sides.”

WSJ’s Lingling Wei and Kim Mackrael report that “Beijing is looking at ways to peel American allies away from Washington … Trump’s campaign pledge to impose tariffs of up to 60% on imports from China threatens the very growth model promoted by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, one that centers on ramping up manufacturing and exporting the country’s way out of a downturn.To offset the potential hit to the already wobbly Chinese economy, the Xi leadership is considering plans to shower American allies in Europe and Asia with tariff cuts, visa exemptions, Chinese investments and other incentives, according to people close to Beijing’s decision-making. They say that while China is willing to engage in dialogue with Washington once the new Trump team is in place, it is also seizing on the opportunity to court America’s traditional partners to buy itself time and leverage in its intensifying competition with the U.S.”

The report adds: 

“In recent months, China has already removed visa requirements for travelers from some two dozen countries including Australia, New Zealand, Denmark, Finland and South Korea—without requiring that the moves be immediately reciprocated. The strategy, labeled “unilateral opening” in China’s policy circles, represents a tactical change for a leadership that has long favored quid-pro-quo economic and diplomatic deals. He Lifeng, Xi’s economic czar, hinted in recent meetings with Western business leaders that Beijing is weighing “proactive” tariff cuts in various sectors to boost foreign investment and trade with Europe and other Asian countries, according to the people close to the decision-making. The people say the sectors in focus include electrical and telecommunications equipment, as well as seafood and other agricultural products, depending on the countries Beijing is targeting.”

Meanwhile, Global Times reports: “China’s Ministry of Commerce announced on Monday that Chinese investigating agencies decided to impose temporary anti-dumping measures against brandy imported from the EU. Starting from November 15, when importing the products under investigation, importers must submit deposits or letters of guarantee to China’s customs authorities based on the dumping margins as specified in the announcement. Experts noted that in contrast with the EU's unilateral move of launching an anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), the MOFCOM's decision is in line with China's domestic laws and WTO rules, and the investigation is based on the demands of the related industry. They urged the bloc to respect and attach importance to the benefits brought by the interdependence of China-EU economic and trade relations.”

Here are the key reports and articles that I found noteworthy from the People’s Daily’s edition on Tuesday, November 12, 2024.

Page 1: Let’s begin with two reports about Xi Jinping. First, there’s a report on Xi’s congratulatory message to the Global South Media and Think Tank Forum being held in Brazil. Xinhua reports:

“Noting that at present, the Global South is growing with a strong momentum and playing an increasingly important role in the cause of human progress, Xi said China has always been a member of the Global South and will always belong to the developing world. China is willing to work alongside Global South countries to practice true multilateralism, advocate for an equal and orderly multipolar world and universally beneficial and inclusive economic globalization, in a joint effort to build a community with a shared future for mankind, he said. Xi emphasized that in the face of global changes of the century, pursuing modernization and working for a more just and equitable international order are the sacred historic missions of Global South countries and the common issues of the times for Global South media and think tanks. Xi expressed hope that the forum’s participants will engage in in-depth discussions, build consensus, and jointly amplify the ‘voice of the Global South’ while showcasing the ‘commitment of the Global South’. He also urged them to contribute wisdom toward empowering the Global South to become a stabilizing force for peace, a backbone of openness and development, a constructive force in global governance, and a driving force for mutual learning among civilizations.”

Second, there’s a report on Xi’s response to “letters from friendly personages from all walks of life in Brazil”. Xinhua reports:

“China is willing to work with Brazil to enrich the friendship between the two countries in the new era, make China-Brazil relations a good example of solidarity, coordination, common development and mutual benefit among major developing countries, and make greater contributions to the cause of peace and progress of mankind, Xi said. He said Brazilian friends are welcome to visit China more often and experience for themselves the myriad sights of Chinese modernization. He voiced hope that people from all walks of life in the two countries will play a positive role in promoting the continuous development of China-Brazil relations and making the China-Brazil friendship flow unceasingly like the Yangtze River and the Amazon River, Xi added.”

Next, there’s a Jin Sheping commentary, which argues that the leadership’s “confidence in achieving the expected target of around 5% is increasing”. This was the assessment made during the Q3 economic data press conference by the NBS, as per the article. “实现5%左右预期目标的信心在增强。”“三季报”新闻发布会上，国家统计局作出这一判断.

The article later adds that “in general, ‘stability’ and ‘progress’ are still the main themes of China's economy. On the one hand, the foundation of stability is more solid. The four major macroeconomic indicators of growth, employment, inflation, and balance of payments show that the overall economic operation is stable and steady. ‘These provide a good foundation for China’s macroeconomic resilience’, said Fan Zhiyong, professor of the School of Economics at Renmin University of China. On the other hand, the momentum of progress is increasing. The growth rate of high-tech industry investment and high-tech manufacturing added value is significantly ahead of the overall level. The more high-tech, high-efficiency, and high-quality industries are, the better the development will be.” 总的看，“稳”和“进”依然是中国经济的主基调。一方面，稳的基础更坚实。增长、就业、通胀、国际收支四大宏观指标显示经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，“这些为中国宏观经济保持韧性提供了很好的基础。”中国人民大学经济学院教授范志勇说。一方面，进的动能在增强。高技术产业投资和高技术制造业增加值增速大幅领先整体水平。越是高科技、高效能、高质量特征的行业，发展越是向好。

The rest of the article discusses certain policy changes that have been implemented, such as allowing borrowers to negotiate with banks independently and adjust mortgage interest rates dynamically, the pursuit of the ‘two-heavy/priorities’ (implementation of major national strategies and capacity building for security in key areas) and ‘two new’ (large-scale equipment upgrades and trade-in for new consumer goods), pursuit of enacting the private economy promotion law, and capital market opening, etc. It ends with a call for renewed confidence.

Page 3: There’s a brief report informing that China and Russia will be holding the 19th round of the annual China-Russia strategic security consultation and the 9th meeting of the China-Russia law-enforcement and security cooperation mechanism. Sergei Shoigu, secretary of the Russian Federation Security Council, will attend these meetings, with Wang Yi and Chen Wenqing, respectively, chairing from the Chinese side.

Meanwhile, there’s a very brief report informing that ILD chief Liu Jianchao met with Dmitry Mironov, aide to the president of the Russian Federation in Beijing on Monday. The report says that the two sides held in-depth discussions on implementing the important consensus reached by the two heads of state, deepening exchanges between counterpart departments, enhancing the exchange of governance experience, and promoting the development of China-Russia relations.

Next, there’s a report on the Chinese side welcoming the return of cultural relics – 56 pieces of Chinese artefacts – from Italy. China “highly appreciates Italy's sense of responsibility in protecting cultural heritage and promoting the return of lost relics to countries of origin”, the foreign ministry said.

Finally, there’s a piece with comments from Mohammed A. Al Ajlan, Chairman, Saudi-Chinese Business Council, looking ahead at the G20 summit in Brazil. 

He “believes that in recent years, the contribution of emerging market countries and developing countries, including Saudi Arabia and China, to world economic growth has been continuously rising, and they have become an important force driving global economic growth and promoting stable development. Developing countries continue to strengthen South-South cooperation, actively voicing the Global South perspective in global governance, and promoting solutions to global issues with Global South initiatives. ‘Through enhanced communication, increased mutual trust, and united cooperation, developing countries are becoming an important force in improving global governance’.” 阿吉兰认为，近年来，包括沙特、中国在内的新兴市场国家和发展中国家对世界经济增长的贡献率不断上升，已经成为拉动世界经济增长、促进稳定发展的重要力量。发展中国家持续加强南南合作，在全球治理中积极发出全球南方声音，以全球南方方案推动解决全球性问题。“通过加强沟通、提升互信、团结合作，发展中国家正成为完善全球治理的重要力量。”阿吉兰表示.

He added that “Saudi Arabia and China are both Global South countries and are both important forces in maintaining world peace and regional stability…” and then he said that: “Chinese-style modernization not only benefits the Chinese people, but also promotes the common development of all countries. ‘China adheres to the path of peaceful development and win-win cooperation, and insists on better maintaining world peace and development through its own development.’ In Ajlan’s view, China’s economy is resilient, has great potential and is full of vitality. By continuously optimizing its industrial structure, China will bring more positive energy to the stable development of the world economy. ‘On the basis of mutual benefit and win-win results, China is conducting positive interactions with other countries. China’s promotion of high-quality development and continued expansion of opening up will not only benefit its own economic development, but will also inject new vitality into the global economy’, Ajlan said.” 阿吉兰表示，中国式现代化既造福中国人民，又促进各国共同发展，“中国坚持走和平发展、合作共赢之路，坚持以自身发展更好维护世界和平与发展”。在阿吉兰看来，中国经济韧性强、潜力大、活力足，通过持续优化产业结构，中国将为世界经济稳定发展带来更多正能量。“在互利共赢的基础上，中国正与各国开展良性互动。中国推动高质量发展，持续扩大对外开放，不仅有利于本国经济发展，也将给全球经济注入新活力。”阿吉兰说.

Page 7: There’s a report informing that China’s yuan-denominated loans rose by 16.52 trillion yuan (about 2.3 trillion U.S. dollars) in the first 10 months of 2024, PBOC data showed. Xinhua adds:

“The M2, a broad measure of money supply that covers cash in circulation and all deposits, increased 7.5 percent year on year to 309.71 trillion yuan at the end of October 2024, according to the People's Bank of China. The M2 growth rate continued to pick up, demonstrating the country's greater efforts in maintaining stable economic growth, analysts said. The M1, which covers cash in circulation plus demand deposits, stood at 63.34 trillion yuan at the end of October, down 6.1 percent year on year. The M0, which indicates the amount of cash in circulation, rose by 12.8 percent from the previous year to a total of 12.24 trillion yuan at the end of last month, the data revealed. Outstanding yuan loans reached 254.1 trillion yuan at the end of October, an increase of 8 percent year on year.”

Some other key data points:

• The loan balance for ‘specialised, refined, and innovative’ enterprises was 4.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%

• The loan balance for technology-based small and medium enterprises was 3.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21%

• The inclusive small and micro enterprise loan balance was about 33 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 15%

在金融总量平稳增长的同时，信贷结构也在持续优化，截至10月末，我国专精特新企业贷款余额为4.23万亿元，同比增长13.6%，科技型中小企业贷款余额3.17万亿元，同比增长21%，普惠小微贷款余额为33万亿元左右，同比增长15%左右，以上贷款增速均高于同期各项贷款增速.

Page 17: There’s a Zhong Sheng commentary, lashing out at the Philippines for the enactment of the two new laws. The author calls the new laws “evil” and claims that this is because they:

• are a serious infringement on China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea

• are a violation of international law and the norms of international relations under the banner of implementing international law

• impact the freedom and safety of navigation in the South China Sea

• threaten regional peace and stability

• aggravate the complexity of the situation in the South China Sea

恶法之恶，在于其严重侵犯中方在南海的领土主权和海洋权益，在于其打着落实国际法的旗号行违背国际法和国际关系准则之实，在于其影响南海航行自由与安全，威胁地区和平稳定，加剧南海局势复杂化.

Subsequently, too, the article calls them “thoroughly evil laws” and argues that “China’s adoption of necessary measures to protect its own sovereign rights and interests is reasonable and legal, and is a legitimate action to maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea.”t中方采取必要措施维护自身主权权益合理合法，是维护南海和平稳定的正当之举.

The author argues that the laws attempt to “embed the illegal ruling of the South China Sea arbitration case in the form of domestic legislation.”

“China has sovereignty over the Nansha Islands and their adjacent waters, and over the Zhongsha Islands including Huangyan Island and their adjacent waters, and has sovereign rights and jurisdiction over the relevant waters. China’s above-mentioned territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests have sufficient historical and legal basis and are in line with international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. The territorial scope of the Philippines is determined by a series of international treaties and has never included China’s Huangyan Island and any islands and reefs of the Nansha Islands. For a long time, the Philippines has illegally occupied many islands and reefs of China’s Nansha Islands; it has arbitrarily exceeded its own territorial scope and established the so-called ‘Kalayaan Island Group’, infringing on China’s territorial sovereignty, which is illegal and invalid. The Philippines' insistence on promoting the legislation of the so-called ‘Philippine Maritime Zones Act’ has once again exposed the Philippines’ real purpose of attempting to steal its illegally obtained gains in the South China Sea by manipulating domestic law, reflecting its ambitions for expansion in the South China Sea.” 所谓“海洋区域法”将中国黄岩岛和南沙群岛大部分岛礁及相关海域非法纳入菲方海洋区域，妄图以国内立法形式固化南海仲裁案非法裁决。中国对南沙群岛及其附近海域、对包括黄岩岛在内的中沙群岛及其附近海域拥有主权，对相关海域拥有主权权利和管辖权。中国的上述领土主权和海洋权益具有充分的历史和法理依据，符合包括《联合国海洋法公约》在内的国际法。菲律宾领土范围是由一系列国际条约确定的，从未包括中国黄岩岛和南沙群岛的任何岛礁。长期以来，菲律宾非法侵占中国南沙群岛的多个岛礁；擅自超越自身领土范围，划设所谓“卡拉延岛群”，侵犯中国领土主权，是非法的、无效的。菲方执意推进所谓“海洋区域法案”立法，再次暴露了菲方试图通过操纵国内法律，窃取其在南海非法所得的真实目的，反映出其在南海扩张的野心.

The violation of international law argument is that “the so-called ‘Philippine Maritime Zones Act’ uses the illegal ruling of the South China Sea arbitration case as one basis for the Philippines to delineate its maritime boundaries. This is akin to using an utter lie to cover up a lie and a fallacy to cover up a fallacy.” 所谓“海洋区域法”将南海仲裁案非法裁决作为菲方明确海洋界限的依据之一，完全是用谎言来掩饰谎言，用谬论来搪塞谬论. Basically, the argument is that the arbitration was illegal so it cannot be used as a basis for anything. “The Philippines’ endorsement of its provocative actions based on the illegal ruling of the South China Sea arbitration case cannot conceal its illegal claims and actions of ‘expanding authority’ in the South China Sea.” 菲方以南海仲裁案非法裁决为侵权挑衅行径背书，掩盖不了其在南海“扩权”的非法主张和行为.

The next bit says that:

“The evil of these evil laws lies in their impact on the freedom and safety of navigation in the South China Sea, threatening regional peace and stability, and intensifying the complexity of the South China Sea situation. The Philippines’ ‘Two Laws’ violate the provisions of the ‘Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea’ regarding ‘exercising self-restraint and not taking actions that would complicate or escalate disputes and affect peace and stability’, which not only does not help resolve disputes but will further intensify contradictions. The so-called ‘Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act’ contains multiple points that contradict international law regulations and International Maritime Organization resolutions. For example, the designated sea lanes do not include all commonly used international passages within Philippine archipelagic waters. This is inconsistent with the provisions of the UNCLOS that ‘all normal channels used for international navigation or overflight through or over archipelago waters should be included’. Moreover, all designated sea lanes are adjacent to U.S. military bases in the Philippines, and it cannot be ruled out that the Philippines is colluding with external countries to monitor passing vessels and threaten the navigational safety of all countries. The Philippine side’s use of domestic law to exceed the scope authorised by international law, illegally restricting other countries’ legitimate rights, has no binding force on other countries, including China. China demands that the Philippine side effectively comply with international law and not harm the legitimate rights enjoyed by all parties under international law, including the UNCLOS. Chinese vessels will continue to navigate in relevant waters and sea lanes in accordance with international law.” 恶法之恶，在于其影响南海航行自由与安全，威胁地区和平稳定，加剧南海局势复杂化。菲律宾“两法”违反《南海各方行为宣言》有关“保持自我克制，不采取使争议复杂化、扩大化和影响和平与稳定的行动”等规定，不仅无益于争端解决，还会进一步激化矛盾。所谓的“群岛海道法”多处与国际法规定和国际海事组织决议不符。例如，指定的航道未包括菲律宾群岛水域内所有常用国际航道，不符合《联合国海洋法公约》“应包括用作通过群岛水域或其上空的国际航行或飞越的航道的所有正常通道”的规定，而且所指海道均紧邻美驻菲军事基地，不排除菲与域外国家勾连，监控往来船只，威胁各国航行安全。菲方以国内法超越国际法授权范围，非法限制他国合法权利，对包括中国在内的其他国家无约束力。中方要求菲方切实遵守国际法，不得损害各方依据包括《联合国海洋法公约》在内的国际法所享有的合法权利。中国船只将继续根据国际法在相关水域和航道通行.

Towards the end, the article says that “Huangyan Island is China’s inherent territory. The Chinese government’s delimitation and announcement of the territorial sea baselines of Huangyan Island, based on international law including the UNCLOS and the Law of the People's Republic of China on the Territorial Sea and the Contiguous Zone, is a normal measure taken by the Chinese government to strengthen maritime management according to law, which complies with international law and international practice, and demonstrates China’s firm determination and will to protect its rights. Regarding maritime disputes, China has always maintained high restraint and advocates seeking mutually acceptable solutions in the spirit of good-neighbourliness and friendship, respecting historical and legal facts. However, goodwill must not be abused. China does not accept any attempt to impose maritime jurisdiction on China through unilateral actions, nor does it recognize any actions that harm China’s maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea. 黄岩岛是中国固有领土。中国政府根据《联合国海洋法公约》等国际法及《中华人民共和国领海及毗连区法》，划定并公布黄岩岛领海基线，是中国政府依法加强海洋管理的正常举措，符合国际法和国际惯例，彰显中方维权的坚定决心和意志。关于海上争端，中国一直保持高度克制，主张本着睦邻友好精神，尊重历史和法理事实，寻求各自均可接受的解决方案。但善意不容滥用，中国不接受任何企图通过单方面行动把海洋管辖权强加于中国的做法，也不认可任何有损于中国在南海海洋权益的行动.

The article ends by calling on the Philippines to “immediately stop taking any unilateral actions that may lead to the escalation of disputes and the complication of the situation, return to the right track of properly resolving differences through negotiations and consultations as soon as possible…”

There’s also a report on MoFA’s comment attacking the US on this issue. Li Jian said:

“Over the years, for the sake of its geopolitical agenda, the US has been instigating the Philippines to engage in acts of infringement and provocations in the South China Sea, as if the area needed any more instability. This vicious intention is so clear for all to see. While urging other countries to abide by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the US refuses to join it, which fully reveals its hypocrisy and double standards. The South China Sea arbitration in itself violates UNCLOS and is a political farce through and through, and the so-called arbitral award is illegal, null and void.”

A couple of other questions from the MoFA presser:

“Reuters: Over the weekend, a joint statement between China and Indonesia said both sides “reached important common understanding on joint development in areas of overlapping claims.” Indonesia’s foreign ministry said today that the country does not recognize China’s “nine-dash line” claims over the South China Sea despite striking a joint development deal with China. Does China view this “important common understanding” as an acknowledgement by Indonesia of China’s claims to parts of Indonesia’s Exclusive Economic Zone? 

Lin Jian: China’s sovereignty and rights in the South China Sea are solidly grounded in history and the law. They were established in the long course of history and are consistent with international law and practices. As early as 1948, the Chinese government officially released the dotted line and reaffirmed its sovereignty and relevant rights in the South China Sea. China attaches great importance to signing the cooperation document on maritime joint development with Indonesia and stands ready to work with Indonesia to implement the important common understandings between the leaders of the two countries so that the cooperation results can benefit the two countries and two peoples as soon as possible. 

Reuters: Following the recent attacks on Chinese nationals in Pakistan, has the concern for the security of Chinese citizens increased in Pakistan? If so, what are the concerns? Is Beijing satisfied with the security protocols for its nationals and projects in Pakistan? 

Lin Jian: China reiterates that terrorism is a common enemy of humanity. It’s the shared responsibility of the international community to fight terrorism and prevent tragedies from happening again. China will continue to support Pakistan in fighting terrorism. We are firm in our commitment to protecting the safety and security of Chinese nationals, projects and institutions overseas. China and Pakistan have the resolve and capability to foil any attempt to harm China-Pakistan relations and ensure that terrorists will pay the price. China and Pakistan are all-weather strategic cooperative partners. Our iron-clad friendship has taken deep roots among our peoples. Attempts to undermine the mutual trust and cooperation between the two countries will not succeed. China will continue to support Pakistan in developing its economy and society and improving people’s life. We will firmly carry out cooperation with Pakistan in various fields for the benefit of the two peoples.”