China-Tanzania Ties - Germany's Scholz Visits China - Guo Jiping on Opening-Up Policy - Liu He on Expanding Demand & Deepening Supply-side Reform - Wang Yi on Maritime Cooperation & Governance

Here are the stories and pieces that I found noteworthy in the Friday, November 4, 2022, edition of the People’s Daily

Page 1: The top story today is on Xi Jinping’s meeting with the visiting Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan. No mask for either of them in this engagement. Xinhua English has a detailed report:

“Noting that President Hassan is the first African head of state China has received after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), Xi said it speaks volumes about the two countries' close ties and the important position of China-Africa relations on China's diplomatic agenda.”

The report adds: 

“Xi briefed President Hassan on the proceedings of the 20th CPC National Congress. He pointed out that starting from now, the central task of the CPC will be to lead the Chinese people of all ethnic groups in a concerted effort to realize the Second Centenary Goal of building China into a great modern socialist country in all respects and to advance the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation on all fronts through a Chinese path to modernization. ‘Modernization does not mean Westernization,’ Xi said, adding China has already found a development path suited to its national conditions. Chinese modernization is grounded in China's own realities, with features that are unique to the Chinese context, said Xi. Xi pointed out both the CPC and the Tanzanian Revolutionary Party (CCM) shoulder the historical mission of strengthening themselves and the country they govern, adding the CPC will expand exchanges and cooperation with the CCM and support the curriculum and operation of the Mwalimu Julius Nyerere Leadership School. Xi stressed that China views its relations with Tanzania from a strategic perspective and will always be a trustworthy friend of Tanzania.”

“China firmly supports Tanzania in upholding its sovereignty, security and development interests, and in exploring a path of development that suits Tanzania's conditions. China and Tanzania will continue to show firm support on issues involving each other's core interests and major concerns, said Xi. Xi also said China will further increase import of specialty products from Tanzania, and support Chinese companies in investing and operating in Tanzania, so as to contribute to the economic and social development of Tanzania. China is ready to exchange experience and best practices with Tanzania on rural revitalization, and support the betterment of livelihood there…In growing China-Africa relations, Xi said both sides need to remain committed to the overall direction of mutual trust, mutual benefit, mutual learning and mutual assistance. Both China and Africa need to build on their time-honored traditional friendship, carry forward the spirit of China-Africa friendship and cooperation, and show greater historical initiative in advancing friendship between China and Africa, he added. Xi went on to point out China's continuous development will create new opportunities for Africa. China will speed up the implementation of the ongoing nine initiatives for cooperation with Africa. ‘With a particular focus on infrastructure, we will continue to nurture new drivers for China-Africa cooperation through trade, investment and financing.’ China stands ready to work with African countries to uphold the basic norms governing international relations including the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, actively operationalize the Global Development Initiative, increase the representation and voice of developing countries in global governance, and do more to bring about a community with a shared future for mankind, said Xi.”

“Hassan stressed that Tanzania will continue to firmly support China on issues relating to Taiwan, Xinjiang, Hong Kong and other core interests of China. She expressed appreciation for China's support in the development of the Mwalimu Julius Nyerere Leadership School, and conveyed the hope of southern Africa's six sister parties to step up experience sharing with China on national governance in order to achieve better development…Noting that the Global Development Initiative put forth by Xi is very timely and conducive to addressing the global challenges of today, Hassan said Tanzania will work with China to operationalize this initiative and build a community with a shared future for mankind.”

The two agreed to:

• enhance exchanges and cooperation at all levels between the localities, legislatures and political parties of the two countries.

• expand the scale of bilateral trade, deepen high-quality Belt and Road cooperation, advance cooperation projects on infrastructure and expand cooperation in such areas as manufacturing and processing, green development and digital economy

• enhance cooperation in international and multilateral settings

• jointly uphold international fairness, justice and the common interests of both sides

A joint statement was signed too. English version available here. Some key points from the statement.

• The two sides agreed to continue elevating their two-way trade and further expand the trade volume. The Chinese side agreed to provide duty-free treatment of 98% tariff lines goods originating from Tanzania exported to China and will actively explore the possibility of providing market access to more Tanzanian products.

• The two sides are ready to actively advance the upgrade and renovation of the TAZARA Railway. The two sides agreed to expand investment cooperation. The Chinese side will encourage more Chinese companies to invest in Tanzania and participate in the development of railways, roads, ports, aviation, electricity and information and communications and other infrastructure. The Tanzanian side will further improve its business environment and provide facilitation for Chinese companies to operate in Tanzania.

• The two sides agreed to further strengthen cooperation on peace and security and collaborate in combating transnational crimes, capacity building, personnel training, equipment and technologies and other fields. The two sides agreed to step up protection of the safety and lawful rights and interests of each other’s citizens and institutions within their territories.

I am not an expert on China-Tanzania ties, but it is worth noting that GSI got no mention in the report or the joint statement.

Anyway, also on the front page is a report of President Hassan meeting with Premier Li Keqiang and NPC head Li Zhanshu. To me, there isn’t anything particularly striking about the reports on these conversations.

Next, there’s a report telling us that Xi will deliver a speech at the 5th CIIE opening today. There’s also a curtain-raiser for the CIIE. This talks about the CIIE being a global event that has been “personally planned, deployed and promoted by President Xi Jinping.” The piece offers this context from Xi’s 20th Party Congress report to frame the discussion around CIIE:

“We will stand firmly on the right side of history and on the side of human progress. Dedicated to peace, development, cooperation, and mutual benefit, we will strive to safeguard world peace and development as we pursue our own development, and we will make greater contributions to world peace and development through our own development.” And this: “China is committed to its fundamental national policy of opening to the outside world and pursues a mutually beneficial strategy of opening up. It strives to create new opportunities for the world with its own development and to contribute its share to building an open global economy that delivers greater benefits to all peoples.”

The piece also carries a lot of positive comments from representatives of companies participating in the exhibition.

Next, there’s a report on Xi’s message of condolence to Philippine President Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos over a tropical storm hitting the Philippines.

Finally, there’s a commentary in the series on the spirit of the 20th Party Congress. This one talks about the need to firmly grasp “the requirements of the times for unity and struggle.” It says that:

While struggle has been a constant for the Party, “especially in the new era, the Party and the country have been faced with complex situations, severe struggles, and arduous tasks of reform, development and stability that are rare in the world and in history. In the past ten years, we have withstood the test of risks and challenges from politics, economy, ideology, nature and other aspects, and our party and state have made a series of breakthroughs and achieved a series of landmark achievements. The great changes of the decade in the new era were achieved through the united struggle of the whole Party and people of all ethnic groups achieved under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core and under the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era. In the past ten years, the authority and centralised and unified leadership of the Party Central Committee have been effectively guaranteed; the Party's core leadership role in overseeing the overall situation and coordinating all parties has been further exerted; the whole Party has become more unified in thought, politics, and action; its power, ideological leadership, mass organisation power, and social appeal have been significantly enhanced; the Party has always been the most reliable backbone of all people when storms hit, providing a fundamental political guarantee for calmly coping with various major risks and challenges.” 特别是进入新时代，党和国家面临的形势之复杂、斗争之严峻、改革发展稳定任务之艰巨世所罕见、史所罕见。十年来，我们经受住来自政治、经济、意识形态、自然界等方面的风险挑战考验，党和国家事业实现一系列突破性进展，取得一系列标志性成果。新时代十年的伟大变革，是在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下、在习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想指引下全党全国各族人民团结奋斗取得的。十年来，党中央权威和集中统一领导得到有力保证，党总揽全局、协调各方的领导核心作用得到进一步发挥，全党思想上更加统一、政治上更加团结、行动上更加一致，党的政治领导力、思想引领力、群众组织力、社会号召力显著增强，党始终成为风雨来袭时全体人民最可靠的主心骨，为沉着应对各种重大风险挑战提供了根本政治保证.

The piece adds that the 20th Party Congress has set up a grand blueprint for the future. In achieving the goals outlined, the Party must prepare to stand the “great test of high winds and even stormy waves,” which calls on the entire Party and everyone to unite. So, how does one do this? The answer is:

“We must deeply understand the decisive significance of the Two Establishments; more consciously safeguard General Secretary Xi Jinping’s position as the core of the Party Central Committee and the whole Party; more consciously safeguard the authority and centralised and unified leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core; fully implement Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era; unswervingly maintain a high degree of consistency with the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core in ideology, politics and action; ensure the correct direction of China’s socialist modernisation drive; ensure that the whole Party and the country have strong political cohesion and develop self-confidence in unity and struggle, and gather a strong force that maintains integrity and innovates to overcome difficulties together.” 我们要深刻领悟“两个确立”的决定性意义，更加自觉地维护习近平总书记党中央的核心、全党的核心地位，更加自觉地维护以习近平同志为核心的党中央权威和集中统一领导，全面贯彻习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想，坚定不移在思想上政治上行动上同以习近平同志为核心的党中央保持高度一致，确保我国社会主义现代化建设正确方向，确保全党全国拥有团结奋斗的强大政治凝聚力、发展自信心，集聚起守正创新、共克时艰的强大力量.

The next paragraph adds the importance of the people-centred development philosophy, implementing the mass line and maintaining flesh and blood ties with the people, as another key means to maintain unity in struggle.

Page 2: There’s a report on the study sessions with regard to the 20th Party Congress that were held by the central committees of all “democratic parties, the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce and people without party affiliation.” You are not going to find any diversity of thought here. It’s all about the two establishments and the two safeguards, etc. 

Page 3: First, there’s a report on Wang Yi’s comments at the opening ceremony of the Symposium on Global Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance 2022. The PD story is very brief. I am sharing excerpts from Wang’s speech below:

• “Maritime disputes should be properly handled through peaceful means. It is important to resolve disputes over territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests through dialogue and consultation, exercise restraint, avoid taking unilateral moves that might complicate the situation, and refrain from resorting to the use or threat of force. Maritime challenges should be responded with a spirit of solidarity. All must transcend zero-sum mentality, work together to address threats such as piracy, transnational crimes, smuggling and drug trafficking, and jointly safeguard freedom and security of navigation. Maritime hegemony should be rejected with an unequivocal attitude. Certain major country refuses to join the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Furthermore, it has created the Indo-Pacific Strategy, put together exclusive small circles, and doubled down on provocative close-range maneuvers and muscle-flexing. This jeopardizes peace and tranquility at sea and therefore should be rejected by all. — C’mon, this is such nonsense. China preaching about not taking unilateral moves in the maritime domain is such double-speak.”

• “We need to enhance maritime connectivity and ensure unimpeded marine transportation and industrial chains. China is ready to work with all parties to pursue high-quality cooperation in building the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road and actively develop the Partnership for Blue Economy, so as to inject fresh impetus into world economic recovery. We need to apply the new development philosophy of innovative, coordinated, green, open and shared development to ensure sustainable development of the ocean. We may seize the opportunity of advancing the Global Development Initiative to speed up the implementation of the 2030 Agenda, balance the development and protection of the ocean, and make joint development a success. We need to vigorously pursue practical cooperation on areas such as marine scientific research, ecological conservation, emergency search and rescue and disaster prevention and relief, and collectively tackle global challenges such as climate change and rising sea levels, so as to look after this blue home that we share. — One must agree with this sentiment; that’s precisely why China’s enhanced military activities in the Taiwan strait are a problem.”

• “We need to uphold true multilateralism. Further efforts should be made to improve the governance system centered around the United Nations. The national conditions unique to different countries should be fully accommodated and all countries’ legitimate aspirations and concerns should be respected. Issues that matter to all should be addressed through consultation participated by all. We need to safeguard the maritime order underpinned by international law. UNCLOS should be interpreted and applied accurately, comprehensively and in its entirety. It is important to earnestly respect the legitimate rights and interests of all countries under UNCLOS and customary international law, refrain from imposing one’s own position on others, oppose attempts to abuse dispute settlement procedures, stay committed to friendly consultation with a spirit of mutual accommodation, and work together to safeguard the global maritime order and promote international maritime cooperation.”

• “We need to advance regional maritime governance in the regional context. This year marks the 20th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC). As the first political document signed by China and ASEAN countries on the South China Sea, the DOC has served as a stabilizer in the South China Sea and helped foster a peaceful regional environment for the growth of China-ASEAN relations. China is ready to work with ASEAN countries to accelerate consultations on a code of conduct in the South China Sea, establish rules on interactions at sea that serve the common interests of all parties, and truly build the South China Sea into a sea of peace, friendship and cooperation.”

Brief thought: The point about UNCLOS and regional maritime governance in a regional context can end up being in contradiction. For instance, the way I understand it, if the SCS Code of Conduct restricts the legitimate rights of exploration of marine resources for extra-regional countries, it can be challenged under UNCLOS. But then, this isn’t as much about law as it is about politics.

Second, there’s a report on Wang Yi talking to Indonesia's Coordinator for Cooperation with China and Coordinating Minister Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan. Xinhua reports:

“Luhut briefed about Indonesia's preparations for hosting the Group of 20 Bali Summit, saying the world faces unprecedented geopolitics and weak economic recovery challenges, and China's role and cooperation are crucial. Indonesia looks forward to closely coordinating with China to make this summit a success and jointly safeguard world peace, tranquility and development, Luhut said. Wang conveyed Xi's cordial regards to Widodo and introduced the major outcomes achieved at the 20th CPC National Congress and its far-reaching significance. With Xi at the helm, China will stride forward steadfastly along the road of socialism with Chinese characteristics, providing important stability and positive energy for the turbulent world, Wang stressed. As two major developing countries and neighbors, China is ready to work with Indonesia to strengthen solidarity and coordination in line with the general direction of building the China-Indonesia community with a shared future set by the two heads of state, and continue to make new contributions to regional and world peace and development, he said.”

Third, there’s a report informing that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will be visiting China today. I recommend reading this preview piece by Finbarr Bermingham in SCMP, if you are interested.

Bermingham reports: 

“The trip comes amid a broad pushback against China in Europe, a trend that began during the pandemic but accelerated after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, due to Beijing’s “no limits” partnership with Moscow. Scholz is under extreme pressure from coalition partners who are pushing for a tougher stance on China, European allies who are concerned that the trip is undermining efforts to talk to China in a “single voice”, and the United States, which has been advocating a “single theatre” approach to dealing with Russia and China. But with the euro zone teetering on the brink of recession, and inflation riding above 10 per cent, the chancellor is adamant that China should not be treated in the same way as Russia. In an article in the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung on Wednesday, Scholz defended his trip, and addressed some of the issues at play. ‘China is and remains an important partner,’ he wrote, adding that he would raise ‘difficult topics’ including human rights, but that Germany would not ‘seek decoupling’. ‘Meetings such as this weren’t possible for a long time because of the pandemic and Beijing’s strict measures to contain it. Direct conversation is, thus, all the more important now. And it is precisely because ‘business as usual’ is no longer an option in these circumstances that I’m travelling to Beijing,’ Scholz wrote.

More interesting bits from the report:

“German companies account for 43 per cent of EU investment in China since 2018, according to a study by the Rhodium Group. Calculations based on Chinese customs data show Germany accounted for 39 per cent of all EU exports to China over the first nine months of 2022. A recent report by the Federation of German Industries found that “dependence on many mineral raw materials from China, for example, is already greater than for oil and natural gas from Russia”. Critics say Scholz’s trip, on which he will be accompanied by German business executives, shows that Berlin is repeating the mistakes of the past. One EU official, speaking on condition of anonymity, compared the trip to some EU states buying up Russian oil after the invasion of Crimea in 2014, despite Brussels’ admonishments to buy less. “Some countries, instead of reducing their dependence [on Russia], increased it. That is the problem, but it is their decision. For Germany with China, the more they will increase their economic dependence the more exposed they are,” said the official.”

Another striking comment from the report: Thomas Haldewang, Germany’s domestic intelligence chief, said: “When people talk about China, they say: ‘Russia is the storm, China is climate change.’ We cannot allow a situation where the Chinese state can influence political events in Germany, possibly through critical infrastructure.”

Finally, there’s a long Guo Jiping article on the CIIE. 

The article says that: 

“In recent years, despite the rise of unilateralism and protectionism and adverse current currents impacting economic globalisation, China is unswerving in its determination to hold the CIIE well, to expand high-level opening up, and to share development opportunities with the world. China’s determination to safeguard and lead economic globalisation is unwavering.” 近年来，尽管单边主义、保护主义抬头，经济全球化遭遇逆流，中国办好进博会的决心坚定不移，扩大高水平对外开放的决心坚定不移，同世界分享发展机遇的决心坚定不移，维护和引领经济全球化的决心坚定不移。

“The success of the CIIE is a vivid interpretation of China's determination to expand opening up, advocate win-win cooperation, and share development opportunities. China has a population of more than 1.4 billion and a middle-income group of more than 400 million, and imports about $2.5 trillion of goods and services each year. Rooted in such a huge market, the CIIE has natural appeal. It is a ‘golden key’ that helps more people who are eager to ride on the tide of economic globalisation to open the door of China's opportunities.” 进博会的成功，是对中国坚定扩大开放、倡导合作共赢、共享发展机遇的生动诠释。中国有14亿多人口和4亿以上中等收入群体，每年进口商品和服务约2.5万亿美元。植根于如此巨大规模的市场，进博会具有天然的吸引力。它是一把“金钥匙”，帮助更多渴望在经济全球化大潮中乘势而上者打开中国机遇之门.

Over the past four years, more than 120 Fortune 500 companies and industry leading enterprises have participated in the exhibition. This year, the world's top 10 industrial electric enterprises, four major grain merchants, top 10 medical device companies, 15 pharmaceutical enterprises, 15 auto brand enterprises, will participate. 进博会以开放的魅力留住朋友。过去4年，120多家世界500强及行业龙头企业连续参展。今年，全球十大工业电气企业、四大粮商、十大医疗器械企业、十五大药品企业、十五大品牌车企等，都将齐聚“四叶草”.

At the 4th CIIE, enterprises from 27 least developed countries signed up. This year, the number of free booths for enterprises from the least developed countries has nearly doubled compared with the previous session, and these enterprises will be connected with the global industrial, supply and value chains. 第四届进博会上，还有来自27个最不发达国家的企业签约参展。今年，最不发达国家企业免费摊位数量比上届增加近1倍，这些企业将在进博会上与全球产业链供应链价值链实现对接.

“At the CIIE, goods and services are traded, and culture and ideas are exchanged. Although some countries pursue protectionism and are obsessed with creating ‘small circles’, which brings challenges to economic globalisation and exchanges and mutual learning among civilisations, China insists on openness and sharing, and is jointly building a big platform for win-win cooperation…” 　　进博会交易的是商品和服务，交流的是文化和理念。尽管一些国家奉行保护主义、执迷于打造“小圈子”，给经济全球化和文明交流互鉴带来挑战，但中国坚持开放共享，共建合作共赢大平台...

Section two of the article talks about China’s opening up over the past decade. This are useful data points to note.

​​”Over the past decade, China has implemented a more proactive strategy of opening up. It has fully implemented the the pre-entry national treatment plus negative list management system for foreign investment, and continuously expanded the scale of foreign investment; it has actively built a global network of high-standard free trade zones, and increased the number of free trade agreements signed from 10 to 19; it has established 21 free trade pilot zones and Hainan Free Trade Port, creating a series of new highlands and experimental domains for reform and opening up; it has held high-level open exhibitions such as the CIIE, the Service Trade Fair, and Consumer Expo; it has promoted the joint construction of a high-quality BRI. In the past ten years, China's foreign total trade volume has increased from $4.4 trillion to $6.9 trillion; China has become the main trading partner of more than 140 countries and regions and the world's largest trading country; the annual actual use of foreign capital has increased from more than 700 billion yuan to 1.15 trillion yuan, ranking second in the world for five consecutive years since 2017; overseas investment stock increased from less than $0.6 trillion to more than $2.7 trillion, ranking third in the world, forming a wider, broader and deeper opening-up pattern.” 十年来，中国实行更加积极主动的开放战略。全面实行外商投资准入前国民待遇加负面清单管理制度，利用外资规模不断扩大；积极构建面向全球的高标准自由贸易区网络，对外签署的自贸协定由10个增加到19个；部署建设21个自贸试验区和海南自由贸易港，打造一系列改革开放新高地、试验田；举办进博会、服贸会、消博会等高水平开放展会；推动共建“一带一路”高质量发展取得实打实、沉甸甸的成就。十年来，中国贸易总额从4.4万亿美元增至6.9万亿美元，成为140多个国家和地区的主要贸易伙伴和全球第一贸易大国；年度实际使用外资从7000多亿元人民币增长到1.15万亿元人民币，自2017年起连续五年位居全球第二位；境外投资存量由不足0.6万亿美元增长到超过2.7万亿美元，位居全球第三位，形成更大范围、更宽领域、更深层次对外开放格局.

Section three talks about the resilience of China’s economy. More than the numbers, the key point here is the emphasis on the Chinese economy needing to be connected to the global economy. To me, this messaging is as much useful domestically as it is for foreign investors. The other point being made in this section is that amid the rising uncertainty and instability in the world, with supply chain disruptions, rise in commodity prices and challenges to energy supplies, what is needed is certainty. — Of course, this does not acknowledge that one of the biggest factors driving uncertainty and unpredictability in the markets is China’s zero-COVID policy.

Some excerpts:

As China strives to open up all aspects of production, distribution, circulation and consumption, and accelerate the building of a new development pattern featuring the domestic cycle as the main body and both domestic and international cycles reinforcing each other, the Chinese market is increasingly becoming a market for the world, a market for sharing and a market for everyone. 伴随着中国着力打通生产、分配、流通、消费各个环节，加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局，中国市场日益成为世界的市场、共享的市场、大家的市场.

“According to the latest data released by China’s Ministry of Commerce, in the first three quarters of this year, total FDI into China was 1003.76 billion yuan, up 15.6 percent year-on-year on a comparable basis. The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) recently released a survey report on the business environment for foreign investment in the third quarter of this year, showing that the Chinese market remains attractive to foreign investment, with nearly 80% of foreign-invested enterprises maintaining their current scale of production and business. Against the backdrop of a complex and grim international situation and weak transnational investment, China has overcome multiple difficulties in attracting foreign investment and achieved growth and quality improvement while maintaining stability, which fully demonstrates the long-term optimism of multinational companies on investment opportunities in China.” 中国商务部最新发布的数据显示，今年前三季度，中国实际使用外资金额10037.6亿元人民币，按可比口径同比增长15.6%。中国贸促会近日发布的今年第三季度外资营商环境调研报告显示，中国市场对外资依然保持较强吸引力，近八成外资企业保持现有生产业务规模。在国际形势复杂严峻、跨国投资疲软的背景下，中国吸引外资克服多重困难，实现稳中有增、稳中提质，充分说明跨国公司对中国投资机遇的长期看好.

Section four has some really emphatic stuff in there. 

My Brief Take: Surely, the Chinese leadership does not believe this bit about the inevitability of economic globalisation. It’s a self-serving narrative that doesn’t stand scrutiny, given how China has politicised trade and investment ties over the years. But again, it is a reminder to those who think that Xi’s economic policies going ahead will be about isolation and complete self-reliance. It’s not about that; it’s about fire-walling the economy from perceived threats of coercion and building resilience to deal with what is seen as a policy of containment by the US, while still remaining open as a key exporter and destination for high-end goods and services, foreign capital, technology and potentially high-end manpower. The challenge is how to do so without engaging in a degree of isolationism and also not triggering adverse responses from others, particularly when you are viewing economic engagement from a strategic perspective? Liu He’s article, which I’ve covered later in this edition, further highlights this challenge for China.

Anyway, here’s the bit that I think is worth reading.

“Economic globalisation is an irreversible historical trend that cannot be changed by human will. Human beings can understand, adapt to and apply the laws of history, but they cannot prevent the laws of history from taking effect. Amid the intertwining and superimposition of the impact of the once-in-a-century changes and the once-in-a-century pandemic, some people’s attitudes towards economic globalisation have shifted. They are advocating for ‘de-globalisation’ and even ‘the end of globalisation’. When the world economy is in a downward period, it is not easy to grow the global economic ‘cake’, it could even become smaller, and the contradictions between growth and distribution, capital and labour, efficiency and fairness will become more prominent; however, the world will never return to a state of mutual isolation and separation. Open cooperation is still the historical trend, and mutual benefit and win-win cooperation is still the aspiration of the people. The general trend of history is bound to advance. It is not possible to cut off the flow of capital, technology, products, industries and people to the economies of various countries, and to make the sea of the world economy retreat to isolated small lakes and rivers, which is not in line with the historical trend.” 经济全球化是不可逆转的历史大势，不依人的意志为转移。人类可以认识、顺应、运用历史规律，但无法阻止历史规律发生作用。百年变局和世纪疫情叠加交织，一些人对经济全球化的态度发生变化，鼓吹“逆全球化”，甚至宣扬“全球化终结”。当世界经济处于下行期的时候，全球经济“蛋糕”不容易做大，甚至变小了，增长和分配、资本和劳动、效率和公平的矛盾就会更加突出，但世界决不会退回到相互封闭、彼此分割的状态，开放合作仍然是历史潮流，互利共赢依然是人心所向。历史大势必将浩荡前行。想人为切断各国经济的资金流、技术流、产品流、产业流、人员流，让世界经济的大海退回到一个一个孤立的小湖泊、小河流，是不可能的，也是不符合历史潮流的.

Later the piece says:

“China is not only a beneficiary of economic globalisation but also a contributor. General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasised in the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China: “China adheres to the right course of economic globalization. It strives to promote trade and investment liberalization and facilitation, advance bilateral, regional, and multilateral cooperation, and boost international macroeconomic policy coordination. It is committed to working with other countries to foster an international environment conducive to development. and create new drivers for global growth. China opposes protectionism, the erection of “fences and barriers,” decoupling, disruption of industrial and supply chains, unilateral sanctions, and maximum-pressure tactics.” 中国是经济全球化的受益者，更是贡献者。习近平总书记在党的二十大报告中强调：“中国坚持经济全球化正确方向，推动贸易和投资自由化便利化，推进双边、区域和多边合作，促进国际宏观经济政策协调，共同营造有利于发展的国际环境，共同培育全球发展新动能，反对保护主义，反对‘筑墙设垒’、‘脱钩断链’，反对单边制裁、极限施压。”

It adds that China is building a unified national market, accelerating the new development pattern, creating a market-oriented and law-based business environment, expanding institutional opening by linkages through shared rules, regulations and standards; it has inked BRI agreements with 140 countries and 30 international organisations; it is part of the RCEP and is working to join the CPTPP and the Digital Economy Partnership Agreements. Ergo, it’s working to make globalisation more open, inclusive, balanced and beneficial. 中国加快构建新发展格局，加快建设全国统一大市场，深化与全球市场的互动联通；中国稳步扩大规则、规制、管理、标准等制度型开放，营造市场化、法治化、国际化一流营商环境；中国同140多个国家、30多个国际组织签署200多份共建“一带一路”合作文件，让发展成果更好惠及各国人民，坚定引领“新型经济全球化”；中国推动全球规模最大的自贸协定——《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》生效实施，并持续推进加入《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》《数字经济伙伴关系协定》……新时代的中国主动拥抱经济全球化，不断推动经济全球化朝着更加开放、包容、普惠、平衡、共赢方向发展，为完善全球经济治理带来了希望.

The final section talks about China’s international engagement, which is under the banner of the concept of building a community with a shared future for mankind. It says that since the 18th Party Congress, China has participated in global governance reform with “unprecedented breadth, depth and intensity” and promoted “the building of a new type of international relations featuring mutual respect, fairness and justice, and win-win cooperation.” 

“No matter how the international situation changes, China has always actively participated in the reform and construction of the global governance system, practised the global governance concept of sharing, adhered to genuine multilateralism, promoted the democratisation of international relations, and promoted the development of global governance in a more just and reasonable direction.” 无论国际风云如何变幻，中国始终积极参与全球治理体系改革和建设，践行共商共建共享的全球治理观，坚持真正的多边主义，推进国际关系民主化，推动全球治理朝着更加公正合理的方向发展.

The examples given are as follows; these, the piece says, are examples of contributing Chinese wisdom, Chinese solutions, and Chinese strength to solve common problems faced by mankind.

• UN peacekeeping

• BRI

• Global Data Security Initiative

• Pandemic-related cooperation

• maintaining the security and stability of the global industrial and supply chains (once again, whenever Beijing says this, we should point to the zero-COVID policy.)

• Encouraging South-South cooperation

• Accelerating the implementation of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development

• Promoting the common values ​​of all mankind

• Pursuing the double carbon goal

Finally, on GDI and GSI, the piece informs that “more than 100 countries and many international organisations including the UN, and more than 60 countries joined the Group of Friends of GDI. China's GSI has been appreciated and supported by more than 70 countries.” 中国提出全球发展倡议，得到100多个国家和包括联合国在内的多个国际组织积极响应和支持，60多个国家加入“全球发展倡议之友小组”；中国提出全球安全倡议，得到70多个国家赞赏和支持。中国将同国际社会一道，努力落实这两大倡议.

Page 4: A consolidated article on the presentations by the Central Propaganda Group on the spirit of the 20th Party Congress in Tianjin, Shanghai, at the Central Policy Research Office, the All China Federation of Supply and Marketing Cooperatives, in Shenyang, at the PBOC, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, and the Chinese Academy of Engineering, among others. 

SCMP has an interesting report on Guo Shuqing’s views after the Congress:

“Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, said that the massive financial resources of some domains – including the internet and big data industries – put them at greater risk of becoming over-leveraged, and this must be prevented. ‘Balancing fair competition, encouraging technological innovation, and preventing disorderly expansion and savage growth [of capital] is an arduous task that we are facing,’ Guo wrote in an article accompanying President Xi Jinping’s full work report for the 20th party congress. Guo added that financial innovation must be carried out under the premise of prudential supervision – which includes requiring financial firms to control risks and hold adequate capital – while normalised supervision of online financial platforms should be implemented. “[It is necessary to] strengthen financial anti-monopoly and antitrust [efforts]; regulate and guide the healthy development of capital in accordance with the law; and prevent the disorderly expansion of capital in the financial sector.” Dan Wang, chief economist at Hang Seng Bank China, said Guo’s article emphasised the service role of finance to the real economy, while downplaying innovation in the sector. “Years ago, there was a lot of talk about financial innovation and intelligence, but it is no longer the focus this time,” she said. “So, they are saying that the financial system needs to be developed to achieve policy goals of the country, to support hi-tech industries, and at the same time strictly control financial risks.”

Page 5: The second article in the series on Chinese-style modernisation. This one focuses on the idea that China’s modernisation is the modernisation of a massive population. The argument is that this is an unprecedented and challenging endeavour. It also means that modernisation must focus on improving people’s lives and well-being. Therefore, modernisation in this context, calls for focus on education, social security, healthcare and the ecology. In other words, development must be “people-centred.” 

Interestingly, the piece adds that one must also look at the large population as an advantage because it creates a larger market, richer collection of human resources, and stronger development momentum. It adds that the people will provide the most “solid support and the most powerful strength” for China’s modernisation.

Page 6: There’s a long piece by Liu He on economic policy after the 20th Party Congress. In section one, he writes about implementing the strategy of expanding domestic demand with the deepening of supply-side structural reforms.

First, Liu explains that the total social demand consists of consumption demand, investment demand and export demand. The first two are domestic and the third is external. He goes back to the 1998 Asian financial crisis and the 2008 crisis. But I’ll talk about the more recent stuff.

He argues that since 2020, China has emphasised boosting domestic demand. To do so, China has accelerated the implementation of major projects, actively stabilised residents' consumption and enterprise investment, and maintained stable economic development. From a long-term perspective, global economic rebalancing is the logical main line of the evolution of the world economy since the 2008 international financial crisis. Adhering to the strategy of expanding domestic demand, China has not only achieved its own economic stability and transformation and development, but also made great contributions to the rebalancing and steady growth of the world economy. 我国加快实施重大项目工程，积极稳定居民消费和企业投资，保持了经济稳定发展。从长期视角看，全球经济再平衡是2008年国际金融危机以来世界经济演变的逻辑主线。中国坚持实施扩大内需战略，不仅实现了自身经济稳定和转型发展，而且为世界经济再平衡和稳定增长作出了巨大贡献.

Second, promoting supply-side structural reform is the fundamental policy to achieve high-quality development. Third, he says that “combining the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening the structural reform on the supply side is the long-term strategy to actively respond to domestic and international environmental changes and enhance development initiative.”

He adds: “At present, the world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century, the impact of the pandemic is far-reaching, the world economic recovery is sluggish, inflation remains high, major developed economies have made drastic adjustments to their macro policies, and international demand is likely to fluctuate and contract further. The global division of labour and regional distribution are undergoing extensive and profound adjustments. The stability of energy and resources supply is declining, and the original supply and demand cycle of the global economy is being disrupted or even blocked. In particular, some countries, regardless of the norms of international relations and economic and trade rules, are trying to exert extreme pressure by decoupling and breaking industrial and supply chains and suppressing enterprises, hindering China's economic development and structural upgrading, which will have a major impact on the total global supply and demand balance. Domestically China's economy is facing the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectations. Risk factors in some areas are on the rise, population ageing is accelerating, traditional advantages such as labour and land are weakening, resource and environmental constraints are tightening, and the ability of scientific and technological innovation is not strong. The improvement of total factor productivity is constrained. It is urgent to exert efforts from both supply and demand sides, which will not only expand effective demand, but also promote the transformation and adjustment of production functions and shape new competitive advantages.” 当前，世界百年未有之大变局加速演进，世纪疫情影响深远，世界经济复苏乏力，通胀水平居高不下，主要发达经济体大幅调整宏观政策，国际需求可能进一步波动收缩。全球产业分工体系和区域布局正在发生广泛深刻调整，能源资源等供应稳定性下降，全球经济原有供需循环受到干扰甚至被阻断。特别是某些国家不顾国际关系准则和经贸规则，试图通过脱钩断链、打压企业等方式极限施压，阻碍我国经济发展和结构升级，对全球总供需平衡产生重大冲击。从国内看，近来我国经济面临需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱三重压力，一些领域风险因素上升，人口老龄化加速，劳动力、土地等传统优势弱化，资源环境约束趋紧，科技创新能力还不强，全要素生产率提高受到制约，亟待从供需两端发力，既扩大有效需求，又推动生产函数变革调整，塑造新的竞争优势.

“In response to this new situation, since 2020, the CPC Central Committee has proposed to speed up the construction of a new development pattern with the domestic circulation as the main body and the domestic and international double circulation reinforcing each other, and firmly basing our development on our own strength. This requires us to make overall plans to expand domestic demand and optimise supply, give full play to the advantages of super-large-scale market, improve the adaptability of supply system to domestic demand, break through the blocking points of the economic cycle, promote the benign interaction between supply and demand, and inject new impetus into the world economy while realising our own high-quality development.” 针对这种新形势，2020年以来党中央提出要加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局，把发展的基点牢牢放在自己力量的基础上。这就要求我们统筹谋划扩大内需和优化供给，充分发挥超大规模市场优势，提升供给体系对国内需求适配性，打通经济循环卡点堵点，推动供需良性互动，在实现自身高质量发展的同时为世界经济注入新动力.

He then calls for focussing on high-quality development and the above policies that he has discussed, which are critical to grasping the idea that development is the top priority of the government.

In section two, he talks about the major principles and requirements that need to be grasped to organically combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with the deepening of supply-side structural reforms. 

In the first subsection of section two, he makes the following points:

• Within the framework of high-quality development, domestic demand must be an effective demand that is aimed at meeting the individualised, diversified and constantly upgraded needs of the people. It should also be a demand that is based on reasonable return on investment, income-based consumption, principal and debt constraints, i.e., it should be a sustainable demand. 按照高质量发展的要求，扩大的内需必须是有效需求，是满足人民群众个性化、多样化、不断升级的需求，是有合理回报的投资、有收入依托的消费、有本金和债务约束的需求，是可持续的需求.

• Fiscal and monetary policies should be implemented when the effective demand is insufficient and the market expectation is unstable, so as to make timely, appropriate and precise policy interventions, without engaging in flood-like stimulus measures. 财政和货币政策要在有效需求不足、市场预期不稳时出手，做到适时适度、精准施策，不能搞大水漫灌.

• Make efforts to improve the quality and efficiency of the supply system and make the supply structure more responsive to effective demand. We must not create outdated production capacity and products that do not meet the development direction and market demand, and waste social resources and wealth.深化供给侧结构性改革必须在提高供给体系质量和效率上做文章，提升供给结构对有效需求的适配性，不能形成不符合发展方向和市场需求的落后产能和产品，造成社会资源和财富浪费。

In subsection two, he says:

• deepening the supply-side structural reform should be the main line of focus because “economic development is ultimately driven by supply, and in the long run, supply creates demand.” 推动两者有机结合必须坚持以深化供给侧结构性改革为主线。经济发展最终靠供给推动，从长期看是供给创造需求.

• He says that while China’s economy faces both supply and demand challenges, the key issue is that the supply side is suffering from sticking points, blockages and weaknesses. And in order to address these, one needs to focus on scientific and technological innovation and institutional innovation, and strive to break through bottlenecks in supply, and meet and create demand with independent, controllable, high-quality and effective supply.” 表现在供给存在卡点、堵点、脆弱点，供给结构不能适应需求结构变化。坚持深化供给侧结构性改革这条主线，就是要发挥创新第一动力作用，持续推动科技创新、制度创新，着力突破供给约束堵点，以自主可控、优质有效的供给满足和创造需求.

Then he makes three very important points:

• First, in areas where external dependence is high, it is difficult to have external alternative sources in the short term, and the supply and chain may be broken. It is necessary to accelerate addressing shortcomings. 一是在对外依赖度高、短期难以有外部替代来源，可能会出现断供断链的领域，要加快补短板.

• Second, in areas where there is demand but it has not been effectively met, such as high-quality branded goods, high-quality and diversified life services such as childcare and elderly care, health and culture, high-end productive services such as R&D and design, accounting and auditing, green ecological products, etc., we need to deepen reform and opening-up and optimise the supply structure as soon as possible. 二是在有需求但未得到有效满足的领域，如优质品牌商品，育幼养老、健康文化等高品质、多样化生活性服务业，研发设计、会计审计等高端生产性服务业，绿色生态产品等，要深化改革扩大开放，尽快优化供给结构.

• Third, in order to adapt to the major trend of the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, promote the development of new industries, new technologies, new products and new forms of businesses, and create new demand with new supply in order to create an inexhaustible driving force for economic development. 三是适应新一轮科技革命和产业变革大趋势，推动新产业、新技术、新产品、新业态发展，以新供给创造新需求，形成经济发展不竭动力.

In subsection three, he talks about giving full play to China’s super-large market. He argues that:

“Firmly grasping the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand means making full use of the precious strategic resource that is China’s super-large-scale market, creating long-term and stable good development expectations for market players, promoting common prosperity through high-quality development, expanding the middle-income group, enhancing the willingness and ability of market to spend independently, and expanding the scale and upgrading the structure of domestic demand to lead and promote quality supply.” 坚持牢牢把握扩大内需这个战略基点，就是要充分用好超大规模市场这个宝贵的战略资源，为市场主体营造长期稳定的良好发展预期，在高质量发展中推动共同富裕，扩大中等收入群体，提升市场自主支出意愿和能力，以规模扩大、结构升级的内需牵引和催生优质供给。

In subsection four, he calls for making progress while maintaining stability. “It is necessary to stabilise the overall macroeconomic situation, stabilise the integrity of the supply chain of the industrial chain, stabilise the supply of primary products such as energy, lay the foundation for positive progress, and strengthen the confidence to cope with complex situations and challenges…advancing means being proactive and making a difference.  We should take greater steps in deepening reform, optimising factor allocation and promoting structural adjustment. We should adhere to the reform direction of the socialist market economy and deepen the reform from both ends of supply and demand.” 要稳住宏观经济大局，稳住产业链供应链完整性，稳住能源等初级产品供给，为积极进取奠定基础，为应对复杂局面和各种挑战增强底气；“进”是积极进取、有所作为，要在深化改革、优化要素配置、推进结构调整上迈出更大步伐。要坚持社会主义市场经济改革方向，从供需两端着手深化改革.

“On the one hand, the adjustment of supply structure is essentially a reform issue. It is necessary to make efforts in optimising the development environment, breaking monopolies, promote market-based allocation of factors of production, and build a large, unified national market so as to break down the systemic and institutional obstacles that restrict the self-adjustment of supply side, protect and stimulate the vitality of micro-entities and promote the adjustment of supply structure. On the other hand, it is necessary to strengthen demand-side management, promote high-quality and full employment, improve the distribution system, improve the social security system, deepen the reform of investment and financing system, fully release consumption and investment demand, and make the construction of a super-large-scale domestic market a sustainable historical process.” 一方面，供给结构调整本质上是改革问题，要在优化发展环境、打破垄断、推进要素市场化配置、构建全国统一大市场等方面发力，破除制约供给端自我调整的体制机制障碍，保护和激发微观主体活力，推进供给结构调整。另一方面，要加强需求侧管理，促进高质量充分就业，完善分配制度，健全社会保障体系，深化投融资体制改革，充分释放消费和投资需求，使建设超大规模市场成为一个可持续的历史过程.

In the fifth subsection, he calls for system concept and bottom-line thinking in order to achieve the above.

Finally, section three of the article talks about the priorities for the next five years to ensure all the above.

• He talks about expanding domestic demand but also adhering to a high level of opening up. He calls for “continuing to open wider to the flow of goods and factors of production, attract high-quality factors and products such as capital, technology and talent from around the world, and break the external containment and suppression of China.” 继续扩大商品和要素流动型开放，吸引全球资金、技术、人才等优质要素和产品，打破外部对我国的围堵打压。

• “Give full play to the advantages of China’s strong industrial supporting capacity and the international leadership of some industries, actively participate in promoting the optimisation of the layout of the global and regional industrial and supply chains, and establish closer economic ties. 要发挥我国产业配套能力强、部分产业国际领先的优势，积极参与推动全球和区域产业链供应链优化布局，建立更为紧密的经济联系.

• Steadily expand institutional openness through rules, regulations, management, standards.

• “It is necessary to strengthen and improve macro-control, and do a good job in cross-cycle design and counter-cycle adjustment of macro-policies. It is necessary to strengthen expectation management, improve the transparency, credibility and professionalism of macro policies, and strive to be ahead of the market curve. It is necessary to give full play to the strategic guiding role of the national development plan, strengthen the coordination between fiscal policy and monetary policy, focus on expanding domestic demand, strengthen the basic role of consumption in economic development and the key role of investment in optimising the supply structure, and continuously release the huge potential of consumption and investment in modernisation.” 要加强和改善宏观调控，做好宏观政策跨周期设计和逆周期调节。要加强预期管理，提高宏观政策透明度、公信力和专业化水平，努力走在市场曲线前面。要发挥国家发展规划的战略导向作用，加强财政政策和货币政策协调配合，着力扩大内需，增强消费对经济发展的基础性作用和投资对优化供给结构的关键作用，持续释放现代化建设蕴藏的巨大消费和投资潜力.

• It is necessary to promote entrepreneurial spirit and stimulate the vitality and creativity of enterprises…It is necessary to build a high-standard market system and improve the basic systems of the market economy such as property rights protection, market access, fair competition, and social credit. It is necessary to improve the modern enterprise system with Chinese characteristics and accelerate the construction of world-class enterprises. It is necessary to set up ‘traffic lights’ for capital, and regulate and guide the healthy development of capital in accordance with the law. 要建设高标准市场体系，完善产权保护、市场准入、公平竞争、社会信用等市场经济基础制度。要完善中国特色现代企业制度，加快建设世界一流企业。要为资本设置好“红绿灯”，依法规范和引导资本健康发展。

• It is necessary to improve total factor productivity. In this, he talks about education, the role of enterprises in innovation, supporting the little giants/specialised enterprises, policy system to boost population growth and forming a comparative advantage in international competition for talents.

• Improve resilience and safety of industrial and supply chains. In this, Liu talks about addressing shortcomings in basic software, core hardware, and basic raw materials in order to enhance independent intellectual property rights and replacement capacity, and ensure a stable and unimpeded supply chain of the industrial chain. amid the threat of decoupling and supply chain disruptions by some countries. 面对某些国家对我国脱钩断链企图，要在关系安全发展的领域加快补齐短板，特别是要补齐基础软件、核心硬件、基础原材料等突出短板，提升自主知识产权和替代接续能力，确保产业链供应链稳定畅通.

• He calls for a “focus on the real economy, to consolidate the leading position of competitive industries, promote high-end, intelligent and green development of manufacturing, build a new system of high-quality and efficient service industries, accelerate the development of the digital economy, and build new growth engines. The global industrial chain and supply chain are important international public goods. We are ready to work with other countries to maintain the security and stability of the global industrial chain and supply chain.” 要坚持把发展经济的着力点放在实体经济上，巩固优势产业领先地位，推动制造业高端化、智能化、绿色化发展，构建优质高效的服务业新体系，加快发展数字经济，构建一批新的增长引擎。全球产业链供应链是重要的国际公共产品，我们愿与各国一道维护全球产业链供应链的安全稳定。

• Promote urban-rural integration and coordinated regional development

• Prevent and resolve systemic risks. In this, he specifically focuses on financial risk.