China's Politburo Discusses Economic Direction for 2024
Here are the key reports and articles that I found noteworthy from the People's Daily’s edition on Saturday, December 09, 2023.
Page 1: The top story (English report) on the page is about the Politburo meeting chaired by Xi Jinping. The meeting was held to:
analyse and study the economic work of 2024
listen to the CCDI and NSC work report, and study and deploy the construction of party conduct and anti-corruption work in 2024
review new Party regulations on disciplinary actions
中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2024年经济工作；听取中央纪委国家监委工作汇报，研究部署2024年党风廉政建设和反腐败工作；审议《中国共产党纪律处分条例》。中共中央总书记习近平主持会议.
“The meeting held that this year has been the first year to fully implement the spirit of the Party’s 20 National Congress, and a year for economic recovery after three years of COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control. The Party Central Committee with comrade Xi Jinping at its core has united and led the whole Party and the people of all ethnic groups in China in withstanding external pressure and overcoming internal difficulties, focusing on expanding domestic demand, improving the economic structure, boosting confidence, and forestalling and defusing risks. China’s economy has rebounded and improved, high-quality development has been solidly promoted, significant progress has been made in the construction of the modern industrial system, new breakthroughs have been achieved in scientific and technological innovation, reform and opening up have advanced in depth, the foundation for secure development has been consolidated, people’s well-being has been effectively safeguarded, and solid steps has been taken to fully build a modern socialist country.” 会议认为，今年是全面贯彻党的二十大精神的开局之年，是三年新冠疫情防控转段后经济恢复发展的一年。以习近平同志为核心的党中央团结带领全党全国各族人民，顶住外部压力、克服内部困难，着力扩大内需、优化结构、提振信心、防范化解风险，我国经济回升向好，高质量发展扎实推进，现代化产业体系建设取得重要进展，科技创新实现新的突破，改革开放向纵深推进，安全发展基础巩固夯实，民生保障有力有效，全面建设社会主义现代化国家迈出坚实步伐.
“The meeting emphasised that to do a good job in economic work next year, we must be guided by Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, fully implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the Second Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee; adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability; fully and accurately implement the new development concept, accelerate the establishment of a new development pattern, focus on promoting high-quality development, comprehensively deepen reform and opening up, promote high-level self-reliance and self-improvement in science and technology, intensify macroeconomic regulation, coordinate efforts to expand domestic demand and deepen supply-side structural reform, coordinate a new type of urbanisation and all-round rural revitalization, coordinate high-quality development and high-level security, effectively enhance economic vitality, forestall and defuse risks, and improve social expectations, continue to promote effective improvement in quality and reasonable growth in quantity of the economy, enhance people’s livelihood and well-being, maintain social stability, and comprehensively promote the building of a strong country and the great cause of national rejuvenation with Chinese-style modernization.” 会议强调，做好明年经济工作，要以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，全面贯彻落实党的二十大和二十届二中全会精神，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，完整、准确、全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，着力推动高质量发展，全面深化改革开放，推动高水平科技自立自强，加大宏观调控力度，统筹扩大内需和深化供给侧结构性改革，统筹新型城镇化和乡村全面振兴，统筹高质量发展和高水平安全，切实增强经济活力、防范化解风险、改善社会预期，巩固和增强经济回升向好态势，持续推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，增进民生福祉，保持社会稳定，以中国式现代化全面推进强国建设、民族复兴伟业.
The meeting urged efforts to pursue progress while ensuring stability, consolidate stability through progress, and establish the new before abolishing the old regarding the economic work next year. The country should strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments of macro policies and continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy.
The proactive fiscal policy should be appropriately intensified and improved in quality and efficiency, while the prudent monetary policy should be flexible, appropriate, targeted and effective.
Scientific and technological innovation should drive the construction of a modern industrial system, and improve the resilience and security of industrial chains and supply chains.
Efforts should be made to expand domestic demand and create a virtuous cycle in which consumption and investment reinforce each other.
Deepen reform in key areas and inject strong impetus into high-quality development.
Open wider to the outside world at a high level and consolidate the basic foundation/base of foreign trade and foreign investment.
Continue to effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas, and resolutely maintain the bottom line of ensuring no systemic risks.
Persist in the work related to agriculture, rural areas and farmers, and promote urban-rural integration and coordinated regional development.
Further promote the construction of ecological civilization and green and low-carbon development, and accelerate the development of a Beautiful China.
Persist in doing our best and what is within our capabilities to effectively protect and improve people’s livelihood.
会议指出，明年要坚持稳中求进、以进促稳、先立后破，强化宏观政策逆周期和跨周期调节，继续实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策。积极的财政政策要适度加力、提质增效，稳健的货币政策要灵活适度、精准有效。要增强宏观政策取向一致性，加强经济宣传和舆论引导。要以科技创新引领现代化产业体系建设，提升产业链供应链韧性和安全水平。要着力扩大国内需求，形成消费和投资相互促进的良性循环。要深化重点领域改革，为高质量发展持续注入强大动力。要扩大高水平对外开放，巩固外贸外资基本盘。要持续有效防范化解重点领域风险，坚决守住不发生系统性风险的底线。要坚持不懈抓好“三农”工作，推动城乡融合、区域协调发展。要深入推进生态文明建设和绿色低碳发展，加快建设美丽中国。要坚持尽力而为、量力而行，切实保障和改善民生.
Comment: I am not sure if there is anything remarkably new in what is being said above with regard to the economic direction going forward. The indication seems to be that we are likely to see a fair bit of more of the same going forward, i.e., seeking effective improvement in quality and reasonable growth in quantity. These meetings reported today are precursors to the CEWC. So I guess one can wait for specific insights or additional details at that meeting. There’s no indication yet of a third plenum, however. In terms of policies, for the moment, there doesn’t seem to be anything specific that indicates that money supply will be broadly loosened or credit supply will be expanded in order to stimulate higher growth. That said, there has been reporting around the so-called Pledged Supplemental Lending and special loans for the property sector. But this seems like a slow, targeted effort, and is akin to providing band-aid solutions to deep shrapnel wounds suffered across the sector. Additionally, in this report, there also doesn’t seem to be anything specific around what will be done to boost demand. The bit around investment and consumption reinforcing each other is not new and sounds like a continued desire to limit wasteful investment. Some of the more specific challenges, such as the weakness in the real estate sector and local government debt, are not individually mentioned. There is also nothing in there about common prosperity; in contrast, there’s a line about the need to protect and improve people’s livelihood within one’s capacities. In addition, there’s a call to further open to the outside world and consolidate the base of foreign trade and investment. There has been significant effort made towards this in the year. One can go back to Li Qiang’s visit to Europe earlier in the year as an example. I wonder if this also points to a Beijing that is more willing to talk to key markets and sources of investments?
Anyway, moving on, the report added:
The meeting stressed the high-quality implementation of the CPC Central Committee’s major decisions and arrangements for economic work, while underscoring efforts to ensure market supply and stable prices of essential goods during New Year's Day and the Spring Festival and ensure full and timely payments of migrant workers' wages. Take care about the work and livelihood of the most vulnerable, thoroughly implement the responsibility system for production safety, and safeguard the safety of people’s lives, property, and physical health. 会议强调，要坚持和加强党的全面领导，高质量落实党中央对经济工作的重大决策部署。要做好“两节”期间重要民生商品保供稳价，保障农民工工资按时足额发放，关心困难群众生产生活，深入落实安全生产责任制，守护好人民群众生命财产安全和身体健康.
After this, the report discusses the discipline bit. It affirms the work done by the CCDI and NSC since the 20th Party Congress. Then it says:
“The meeting emphasised that the disciplinary inspection and supervision agencies must thoroughly study and implement Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, unswervingly promote comprehensive and strict party governance, and continue to deepen the improvement of work style, discipline and anti-corruption work.
It is necessary to strengthen political supervision, promote the whole Party to deeply understand the decisive significance of the ‘Two Establishments’, resolutely implement the ‘Two Safeguards’, and resolutely and effectively defend the Party’s solidarity and unity.
It is necessary to continue to make efforts to advance the fight against corruption in depth, carry out special rectification of outstanding industrial, systematic and regional corruption problems, seriously investigate and punish the corruption of ‘flies and ants’ around the masses, insist on dealing with bribe giving and bribe taking together, deepen governance at its source, strengthen the construction of a clean culture in the new era, and resolutely eradicate the soil and conditions that breed corruption. (Hmmm, no mention of tigers in this.)
It is necessary to deal a heavy blow to pointless formalities, bureaucratism, hedonism and extravagance, make oversight more effective, and develop a team of discipline inspection and supervision personnel who are high-calibre and professional.
会议强调，纪检监察机关要深入学习贯彻习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想，坚定不移推进全面从严治党，持续深化正风肃纪反腐。要强化政治监督，推动全党深刻领悟“两个确立”的决定性意义、坚决做到“两个维护”，坚定有效捍卫党的团结统一。要持续发力、纵深推进反腐败斗争，对比较突出的行业性、系统性、地域性腐败问题进行专项整治，严肃查处群众身边的“蝇贪蚁腐”，坚持受贿行贿一起查，深化源头治理，加强新时代廉洁文化建设，坚决铲除腐败滋生的土壤和条件。要重拳纠治“四风”顽疾，强化监督检查，严格纪律执行。要加强纪检监察专责监督与其他监督的贯通协同，实现无缝监督、合力监督，提升监督效能。要以彻底的自我革命精神锻造高素质专业化纪检监察队伍，努力做自我革命的表率、遵规守纪的标杆。
“Prior to this meeting, Xi had chaired a meeting of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, during which a briefing was given on the work of the CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) and the National Commission of Supervision in 2023 and preparation for the third plenary session of the 20th CCDI of the CPC. The meeting agreed that the plenary session is scheduled for Jan. 8 to 10 next year. Since the 18th CPC National Congress in 2012, the CPC has made three rounds of revisions to its regulations on disciplinary action in order to constantly strengthen its capability to purify, improve, reform and excel itself, the meeting noted. The meeting stressed further efforts to enforce strict political discipline and rules, and promote the publicity and implementation of the regulations to enhance the Party’s creativity, cohesiveness and capacity to take on challenges.”
Next, there’s a report on the CPC’s symposium with non-CPC personages to solicit opinions and suggestions on this year's economic situation and economic work for the next year. Xi spoke at this meeting.
Xi said that “next year marks the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China and is a critical year for the implementation of the ‘14th Five-Year Plan’. Guided by the Thought of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, we must fully implement the spirit of the 20th Party Congress and the Second Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, fully, accurately and comprehensively implement new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, solidly promote high-quality development, comprehensively deepen reform and opening up, promote high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-improvement, intensify macro-control, expand domestic demand as a whole and deepen supply-side structural reform, coordinate the expansion of domestic demand and deepen supply-side structural reform, coordinate new urbanisation and comprehensive rural revitalization, and coordinate high-quality development and high-level security, effectively enhance economic vitality, forestall and defuse risks, and improve social expectations, continue to promote effective improvement in quality and reasonable growth in quantity of the economy, enhance people's livelihood and well-being, maintain social stability, and comprehensively promote the building of a strong country and the great cause of national rejuvenation with Chinese-style modernization.” — (This is precisely what the earlier report said.) 中共中央总书记习近平主持座谈会并发表重要讲话强调，明年是中华人民共和国成立75周年，是实施“十四五”规划的关键一年。要以新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，全面贯彻落实中共二十大和二十届二中全会精神，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，完整、准确、全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，扎实推动高质量发展，全面深化改革开放，推动高水平科技自立自强，加大宏观调控力度，统筹扩大内需和深化供给侧结构性改革，统筹新型城镇化和乡村全面振兴，统筹高质量发展和高水平安全，切实增强经济活力、防范化解风险、改善社会预期，巩固和增强经济回升向好态势，持续推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，增进民生福祉，保持社会稳定，以中国式现代化全面推进强国建设、民族复兴伟业.
The report says that Li Qiang, Wang Huning, Cai Qi, and Ding Xuexiang attended the symposium. Li Qiang was entrusted by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China to report on the economic work this year and introduced relevant considerations for next year’s economic work. The report adds:
“Chairpersons of the central committees of eight non-CPC parties, chairperson of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce (ACFIC), and a representative of personages without party affiliation made speeches. They agreed with the CPC Central Committee's analysis of the current economic situation as well as its planning and considerations for the economic work next year. They also offered suggestions on issues including deepening foreign economic and trade cooperation, implementing the proactive fiscal policy, building a market environment of fair competition, expanding effective investment, boosting the development of new material industry, accelerating consumption transition and upgrading, promoting market application of scientific and technological advances, and deepening the integrated development on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.”
Then we have comments from Xi Jinping:
He said that “this year is the first year of fully implementing the spirit of the 20th Party Congress, and a year for economic recovery after three years of COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control. China's development is faced with a complex situation, adverse factors in the international political and economic environment are increasing, which are overlapping with cyclical and structural contradictions domestically. The CPC Central Committee united and led the people of all ethnic groups across the country to overcome difficulties, adhering to the general principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, comprehensively deepening reform and opening up, intensifying macro-control, expanding domestic demand, adjusting the economic structure, boosting confidence, and preventing and defusing risks. Consequently, China’s economy on the whole has recovered and is improving, high-quality development has been solidly advanced, and solid steps have been taken to comprehensively build a modern socialist country.” 习近平指出，今年是全面贯彻中共二十大精神的开局之年，是三年新冠疫情防控转段后经济恢复发展的一年。我国发展面临的形势错综复杂，国际政治经济环境不利因素增多，国内周期性和结构性矛盾叠加。中共中央团结带领全国各族人民迎难而上，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，全面深化改革开放，加大宏观调控力度，着力扩大内需、调整结构、提振信心、防范化解风险，我国经济总体回升向好，高质量发展扎实推进，全面建设社会主义现代化国家迈出坚实步伐.
Xi finally put forward his three hopes/expectations from non-Party personages:
First, improve the political position and unify thoughts and actions with the major decisions and arrangements of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on economic work. This year’s economic performance and economic work achievements fully affirm the correctness and foresight of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in its assessment of the situation and related decisions. At the current stage, as China's economic recovery remains at a critical juncture; I hope that everyone will deeply study and implement the Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, give full play to the advantages of China’s new political party system, continuously enhance the political position of serving the central work of the Party and the country, and guide all the members and masses that they are connected with to act in unison, and jointly implement the major decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee regarding economic work.
Second, strengthen confidence in development and help resolve doubts and build consensus. Everyone should deepen the education on the theme of ‘strengthen the foundation by gathering hearts and casting souls and forge ahead on a new journey of unity and progress’ and consolidate the achievements, and continuously strengthen the common ideological and political foundation for unity and progress.
Third, actively contribute suggestions and ideas to promote high-quality development. Based on the characteristics of their respective fields, there should be a focus on accelerating the construction of the modern industrial system, expanding domestic demand, preventing and resolving risks, promoting agricultural and rural modernization, and increasing efforts in ensuring people’s livelihoods, etc., strengthen investigation and research, and continue to contribute to the scientific decision-making of the Party and the country. It is hoped that the central committees of democratic parties and personages without party affiliation will do a good job in the democratic supervision of ecological environmental protection along the Yangtze River and help the high-quality development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce should continue to convey the CPC Central Committee’s major policies on the ‘Two Unwaverings’ and ‘Two Healths’, implement relevant policies to promote the development and growth of the private economy in conjunction with relevant departments, and support private enterprises to play a greater role in promoting high-quality development.
习近平对各民主党派、全国工商联和无党派人士提出3点希望。一是提高政治站位，把思想和行动统一到中共中央关于经济工作的重大决策部署上来。今年的经济运行和经济工作成绩，充分印证了中共中央对形势判断和相关决策的正确性预见性。当前，我国经济恢复仍处在关键阶段，希望大家深入学习贯彻新时代中国特色社会主义思想，充分发挥我国新型政党制度优势，不断提高服务党和国家中心工作的政治站位，引导广大成员和所联系群众心往一处想、劲往一处使，共同贯彻落实好中共中央关于经济工作的决策部署。二是坚定发展信心，协助做好解疑释惑、凝聚共识工作。大家要深化“凝心铸魂强根基、团结奋进新征程”主题教育并巩固成果，不断夯实团结奋进的共同思想政治基础。三是积极为推动高质量发展建言献策。要立足自身界别特色，聚焦加快现代化产业体系建设、扩大国内需求、防范化解风险、推进农业农村现代化建设、加大民生保障力度等，加强调查研究，继续为党和国家科学决策贡献力量。希望各民主党派中央和无党派人士抓好长江生态环境保护民主监督，助力长江经济带高质量发展。全国工商联要持续传递中共中央关于“两个毫不动摇”、“两个健康”的大政方针，会同有关部门落实好促进民营经济发展壮大的相关政策，支持民营企业为推动高质量发展发挥更大作用。
On Page 3 in the paper is a report (English report) on the second Ministerial Dialogue on Police Capacity Building and Cooperation Between China and Pacific Island Countries in Beijing. Wang Xiaohong said that China is willing to work with all participants to strengthen law enforcement and security cooperation, and help improve the capabilities of the Pacific island countries in professional law enforcement, crime fighting, and operation command. The dialogue was co-chaired by Samoa. Delegations from the Solomon Islands, Tonga, Kiribati, Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea and the Cook Islands attended.