Hi folks,
Earlier today, I did an assessment following the Politburo’s meeting on the economy. Later in the day, this article from the Beijing Daily’s WeChat platform 长安街知事 came to my attention on X and Substack. It’s a rather colourful piece, demonstrating resolve and underscoring that Beijing does not believe an early deal with the US is possible when it comes to the trade war. The article makes the case for reading Mao Zedong’s ‘On Protracted War’ to prepare for what lies ahead with the US. Here’s a breakdown of the piece and a rather vivid image from it:
The article says that since the launch of the trade war by Trump, not only has the Chinese government taken the lead in showing its clear attitude of ‘fighting to the end’, but even across the international community, the voices against bullying have also become increasingly louder.
“Looking at the situation where the US side is wildly throwing punches and China is countering each move as it comes, the direction of public opinion in China is also changing. The once popular theories such as ‘China will eventually be defeated’ and ‘instant surrender theory’ have been quietened, and an increasing number of people are realising that we ‘know what’s going on and have the cards in hand’. At the same time, new incorrect perspectives have also emerged. One is ‘quitting while ahead’, believing that China’s ‘tough resistance’ will ultimately be difficult to sustain, and now that the Trump administration seems to be softening, we should stop at an appropriate point, accept the minimal losses as a win, quickly make concessions and compromises to reach an agreement, and avoid entering a difficult phase of strategic stalemate. Another is ‘victory is in sight’, seeing the US’ chaotic actions and ‘softened tone’ as signs that ‘America is afraid,’ optimistically predicting that the outcome of the trade war has already been determined, and that China will soon achieve complete victory. So, where are these arguments wrong, and how should we rationally view this round of struggle between China and the US?” 特朗普政府宣布对贸易伙伴征收所谓“对等关税”，挑起全球贸易战已近一个月时间，事态演变大大超出了美方预料。不仅中国政府率先亮出“奉陪到底”的鲜明态度，国际社会的反霸凌声浪也愈加高涨。着眼于美方乱拳横出、中国见招拆招的战局，中国国内舆论场的风向也在变化。曾经颇有市场的“中国必败论”“光速投降论”等偃旗息鼓，越来越多的人认识到我们“心中有数、手中有牌”。当此之时，亦有新的错误观点出现。一种是“见好就收”，认为中国“硬刚”下去终难持久，如今特朗普政府似有松动，应当点到为止、少输当赢，尽快让步妥协达成协议，避免进入艰苦的战略相持阶段。另一种是“胜利在望”，看到美国出手混乱“口风”软化就认为“美国怕了”，乐观预测贸易战胜负已分，中国马上就能取得彻底胜利。那么，这些论调错在何处，又该如何理性看待中美此轮斗争呢?
The first section of the article then offers a bit of background into Mao’s book “On Protracted War”. It concludes saying:
“Although the nature of today’s Sino-US struggle cannot be equated with the War of Resistance Against Japan, the results of both are related to the direction of the country and the dignity of the nation. In the midst of chaos, it is a good idea to reread ‘On Protracted War’ to appreciate the dialectical thought that ‘danger and opportunity arise together and coexist’, as well as the strategic vision of why China ‘will have final victory’.” 尽管今天的中美斗争性质上不能等同于抗战，但两者的结果都关乎国家走向和民族尊严。乱云飞渡中，不妨重读《论持久战》，体悟“危与机同生并存”的辩证思想，以及中国“为什么会有最后胜利”的战略眼光.
The second section says:
“The Trump administration, established less than 100 days ago, has thrown a combination of tariff punches like a sudden storm, with the intention of achieving a quick victory, using immense pressure to coerce opponents to yield, reaching an unequal deal in the short term, and maximising their gains. Faced with the knife and chopping block, many countries have fantasised about ‘feeding themselves to the wolf’ to seek momentary survival. But for China, hoping for unilateral compromise or ‘begging for mercy’ is fundamentally unworkable. As the world’s second-largest economy, today’s China’s size is what it is, an undeniable fact. Even if it were to humble itself and act small, to the iron skull of the Cold War mentality, it would still be necessary to eliminate it to feel at ease. The Trump administration’s wielding of the tariff stick, attempting to extort and grab the throat for a fatal blow, with methods so overbearing and fierce as never before seen, is an extreme provocation against China’s national sovereignty and dignity. We have no room for compromise, and even less reason for submission. This round of US tariff increases targets more than 180 countries and regions globally, and is a serious destruction of the world trade system. China, as a responsible major power, firmly counteracting the US tariff bullying behavior, is not only defending its own sovereignty, security, development interests, but also defending multilateralism and upholding the justice of the world trade system. Moreover, the current Trump administration can be said to change face as easily as turning the page of a book, treating national credibility as though it were nothing, each day denying its views and actions from the previous day, and even releasing fake news like ‘China has come to request talks’ to confuse the situation. Faced with the hegemonic ‘art of the deal’, even if China deploys temporary forbearance, it will not bring calm waters, and retreating a step will not bring vast skies and seas (the desired space or breathing room); the other side will only take a mile after being given an inch, taking whatever they want. Right now, when the US side is clearly still playing tricks, how can we engage in wishful thinking that verbally statements or in written promises on paper would hold any real weight? Struggle is the means for unity, unity is the purpose of struggle. No matter from which angle we analyse, China has no choice but to rise up to counterattack, to fight with its back against the water, and cannot suffer from the ‘soft-bone disease’ of avoiding problems and contradictions and not willing to struggle, the ‘fear syndrome’ of being timid and afraid to struggle, and the ‘delusion syndrome’ of hoping for world peace and avoiding struggle.” 组建不到百日的特朗普政府，狂风骤雨般打出关税组合拳，意图就是速战速决，用巨大威压胁迫对手服软，在短期内达成不平等交易，实现利益收割最大化。面对刀俎，不少国家曾幻想“以身饲狼”求得片刻苟安。但对中国而言，指望单方面妥协“求放过”是根本行不通的。作为全球第二大经济体，今日中国的体量就摆在那里，再伏低做小，于冷战思维的铁脑瓜看来，也必要除之而后快。特朗普政府挥舞关税大棒，试图敲诈勒索封喉夺命，手段之霸道与凌厉前所未有，这是对中国国家主权和尊严的极限挑衅，我们没有半点让步的空间，更没有半点屈从的理由。此轮美国加征关税的对象涵盖全球180多个国家和地区，是对世界贸易体系的严重破坏。中国作为负责任的大国，坚决反制美方关税霸凌行径，不仅是捍卫自身主权安全发展利益，更是捍卫多边主义、维护世界贸易体系的正义之举。更何况，如今的特朗普政府，可谓翻脸如翻书、视国家信誉如无物，每天都在否定前一天的自己，甚至连日放出“中国已上门求谈”之类假消息混淆视听。面对霸权主义“交易的艺术”，中国忍一时，换不来风平浪静，退一步，得不到海阔天空，对方只会得寸进尺、予取予求。眼下，在美方分明还在继续玩弄手段之时，我们岂能一厢情愿指望口头表态或一纸承诺有什么保质期呢？“斗争是团结的手段，团结是斗争的目的。”无论从哪个角度分析，中国都不得不奋起反击、背水一战，不能犯遇到问题和矛盾绕道走不愿斗争的“软骨症”、畏首畏尾不敢斗争的“恐惧症”和希望天下太平回避斗争的“妄想症”。
The third section makes the point that the recent adjustments in US policies, such as the exemptions, does not mean that China is obviously going to win this contest. The author makes three points:
The first round of the American offensive undoubtedly hit a wall, but we must see clearly the long-term and brutal nature of the Sino-US game. First, although the United States is irreversibly declining, it still has advantages in terms of economic volume, technological level, corporate innovation, and talent quantity. At a stage when the balance of power has not yet undergone a fundamental reversal, the US’ ‘ruthless actions’ will inevitably have a certain impact on China.
Second, broadly, containing China’s development is a long-term US strategy. Since the end of World War II, the US has always used all means to suppress the world’s second largest economy. Therefore, even if the two American two parties (Democrats and Republicans) take turns in power and adopt different approaches/sing different tunes, American attempts to block and contain China will not truly come to an end.
Third, China’s development momentum is strong, with a complete industrial system, a market of enormous capacity, abundant high-quality human resources, and the systemic advantage of concentrating efforts to accomplish big tasks. This gives China’s development resilience and room for manoeuvre. But objectively speaking, we still have shortcomings in expanding domestic demand, industrial structure, technological innovation, and other areas, and there are still many problems that need to be seriously addressed.
Given the above, the most likely situation between China and the US is to be in a state of long-term repeated game. As stated in ‘On Protracted War’, ‘in the absence of certain definite conditions, quick victory is something that exists only in one’s mind and not in objective reality, and that it is a mere illusion, a false theory’. Only by adhering to seeking truth from facts and analysing particular issues specifically can we ensure winning the final victory.” 美方的第一轮攻势无疑踢到了铁板，但我们必须看清中美博弈的长期性和残酷性。其一，尽管美国正无可挽回地走向衰落，但今天的美国在经济总量、科技水平、企业创新、人才数量等各个方面仍具优势。在力量对比尚未发生根本性逆转的阶段，美国“下狠手”，必然会对中国造成一定冲击。其二，总体来看，遏制中国发展是美国的一项长期战略。二战结束以来，对于世界第二，美国从来都是竭尽一切手段进行打压，因此即便两党轮流坐庄各唱各调，美国对华封锁遏制也不会真的翻篇。其三，中国发展势头强劲，拥有完整的工业体系、规模巨大的市场容量和充足的高素质的人力资源，以及集中力量办大事的制度优势。这赋予中国发展的韧性和回旋空间，但客观地说，我们在扩大内需、产业结构、科技创新等方面还存在短板，还有很多问题需要认真解决。鉴于上述种种，中美最有可能的，是处于长期反复博弈的状态。正如《论持久战》中所言，“没有一定条件，速胜只存在于头脑之中，客观上是不存在的，只是幻想和假道理。”只有坚持实事求是，具体问题具体分析，我们才能确保赢得最后的胜利。
The next section makes the point that American politicians basically serve the 1%. “The various contradictions accumulated within American society today are ultimately a product of the deterioration of the capitalist system. As the representative of capital interests, the U.S. government can never ‘self-revolutionise’ or truly address the root causes of contradictions. It must, therefore, shift contradictions outward through suppression, extortion, exploitation and other means. This determines that whether it is a trade war, a tariff war, or any other kind of ‘war’, the actions of the US are, after its own contradictions have become irreconcilable, risk-taking acts carrying a struggling nature, a gambler’s mentality with the goal of shirking responsibility and shifting blame, and are thus destined to go against the trend of human history. In contrast, today’s China, as an ‘empowering power’; it adheres to the development concept of a community with a shared future for mankind, firmly stands on the side of maintaining globalisation and normal trade order, advocates mutual benefit and win-win results, and opposes unilateralism. At the same time, China’s development has never been the outcome of others’ grace, but the result of the hard work and self-reliance of hundreds of millions of people. Over 70 years since the founding of New China, China has finally broken through the blockade, surpassed the oppression, and accumulated rich struggle experience. This determines that China's attitude of ‘fighting to the end’ is not just an empty rhetorical statement but is in line with the laws of history. It is just, progressive, and supported by a righteous cause; ‘time and momentum are on our side, and victory ultimately belongs to China’.” 诺贝尔经济学奖获得者、美国著名经济学家施蒂格利茨曾讽刺：“美国议员依赖1%的钱连任，为1%的人服务，甚至离任时再靠1%的人赏赐。”今天美国社会内部所积累的各种矛盾，归根结底是资本主义体制恶化造成的。而美国政府作为资本利益的代言人，绝无可能“自我革命”，真正去解决矛盾根源，必然是通过压制、敲诈、盘剥等手段，向外转移矛盾。这就决定了，无论是贸易战、关税战，还是其他什么战，美国的所作所为都是自身矛盾不可调和之后，带有挣扎性质、赌徒心态和甩锅目标的冒险行为，注定是逆人类历史潮流而动的。相比之下，今天的中国作为“赋能型大国”，始终秉持人类命运共同体的发展理念，坚定地站在维护全球化和正常贸易秩序一边，主张互利共赢，反对单边主义。同时，中国的发展从来不是别人恩赐的结果，而是亿万人民自力更生、艰苦奋斗争取来的结果。新中国成立七十多年，中国始终于封锁中突围，在打压中超越，积累了丰富的斗争经验。这决定了，中国的“奉陪到底”，不是口头说说，而是符合历史规律的，是正义的、进步的、得道多助的，“时与势在我们一边，胜利最终属于中国”.
The fifth section says that in the protracted war between China and the US, the key is to achieve China’s own development, improvement, progress and growth. The article then argues that the Party’s central leadership has been visionary in this regard:
“From a national strategic level, from proposing a new development pattern with domestic circulation as the main body and the mutual promotion of domestic and international dual circulation, proposing the development of new quality productive forces and creating new momentum and new advantages for development, to further advancing the construction of a unified national market ... The CPC Central Committee already predicted the long-term nature of the China-US competition and has made proactive arrangements for future great power competition. This is the source of our confidence in responding to containment and suppression. 从国家战略层面看，从提出以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局；到提出发展新质生产力，塑造发展新动能新优势；再到纵深推进全国统一大市场建设……对于中美博弈的长期性，党中央已有预判，面向未来大国竞争进行了主动布局，这是我们应对遏制打压的底气所在.
From the perspective of industrial development, both the Trump and Biden administrations are obsessed with technology positioning. This strategy has not only confined themselves within a circle drawn on the ground/restricted them to a certain area but also catalysed a ‘crisis dividend’ for China. In recent years, China has concentrated its resources to break through the ‘choke-point’ technology problem, accelerate the localisation process of key links, and rapidly grow industries such as AI, big data, integrated circuits, and new energy, demonstrating strong strategic mobilisation and concentrated attack capabilities. 从产业发展层面看，无论特朗普还是拜登政府，均沉迷于技术卡位，不仅让自己画地为牢，且催生了中国的“危机红利”定律。近年来中国集中优势资源突破“卡脖子”技术，加快关键环节国产化进程，人工智能、大数据、集成电路、新能源等产业迅速壮大，显示出强大的战略动员与集中攻坚能力.
From a social perspective, the Chinese people have gone through many ups and downs, and are increasingly aware that the idea that ‘imperialism's desire to destroy us has never died’ is by no means empty talk. Only by daring to struggle and being good at struggle can we turn danger into opportunity and turn danger into security. After the Trump administration launched this round of trade war, several patriotic stories have emerged, such as e-commerce platforms helping foreign trade companies to switch to domestic sales, consumers strongly supporting domestic products, shareholders following the ‘national team’ to protect the country, and students exclaiming ‘scientific research for the country’. The mainstream public opinion is highly united and presents a strong historical initiative. This kind of self-awakening, self-regulation, self-pressure, and self-optimisation of the country’s ability is the core support for the final victory of the protracted war.” 从社会层面看，中国人民几经风雨，越来越认识到“帝国主义亡我之心不死”绝非虚言，只有敢于斗争、善于斗争，才能化危为机、转危为安。在特朗普政府发动本轮贸易战之后，涌现了电商平台帮助外贸企业转内销、消费者大力支持国货、股民跟随“国家队”为国护盘、学子高呼“科研报国”等大量爱国故事，主流舆论高度团结，呈现出了强大的历史主动性。这种自我觉醒、自我调节、自我加压、自我优化的国家能力，正是持久战最终胜利的核心支撑.
Comrade Mao Zedong once said: ‘The Chinese people have ambition and ability, and in the not-too-distant future, they will catch up with and surpass the advanced level of the world.’ Today's China is steadily turning this into reality.” 毛泽东同志曾强调：“中国人民有志气，有能力，一定要在不远的将来，赶上和超过世界先进水平。”今天的中国，正一步一个脚印将之变成现实.
The article ends with this:
“‘Every generation has its own war of resistance’ and ‘every generation has its own Battle of Shangganling’, these were among the viral comments on the Chinese Internet after the US provoked this new round of the trade war. History never repeats itself, but it always rhymes. Today, we revisit ‘On Protracted War’ not only because it provides us with a clear framework for strategic understanding, but also because the methodological wisdom, dialectical materialism, and mass line thought it contains are still of great inspiration for international games in the new era. If we adhere to clear strategic assessment, scientific thinking methods, and firm will to act, we will surely be able to walk this ‘Long March of the New Era’.” “一代人有一代人的抗战”“一代人有一代人的上甘岭”，这是美国挑起新一轮贸易战后，中国互联网上的热评。历史从不重复，但总是压着同样的韵脚。今天，重温《论持久战》，不仅因为它为我们在战略认知上提供了清晰框架，更因为它所蕴含的方法论智慧、辩证唯物主义、群众路线思想，对于新时代的国际博弈依然具有巨大启发意义。始终坚持清醒的战略判断、科学的思维方法、坚定的行动意志，我们一定能够走好这一场“新时代的长征”.
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