Economic Data - Xi Stresses War Preparedness - China's BRICS Perspective - China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0
Let’s begin by doing a brief breakdown of the NBS’ data on the first three quarters of the Chinese economy. This was released on Friday.
GDP growth for the January to September period was 4.8%; GDP for the first quarter grew by 5.3% year on year, up by 4.7% for the second quarter and up by 4.6% for the third quarter.
The total value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 5.8% year on year. In terms of sectors, the value added of mining increased by 2.9% year on year, that of manufacturing increased by 6.0%, and that of production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water increased by 6.3%. The value added of equipment manufacturing grew by 7.5% year on year, and that of high-tech manufacturing up by 9.1%.
The production of new-energy vehicles, integrated circuits and 3D printing devices went up by 33.8%, 26.0% and 25.4% year on year respectively.
September’s PMI was 49.8%, 0.7 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, but still indicating contraction.
The value added of services went up by 4.7% year on year.
Total retail sales of consumer goods reached 35,356.4 billion yuan, up by 3.3% year on year.
Fixed Asset Investment reached 37,897.8 billion yuan, up by 3.4% year on year. FAI was up by 7.7% with the investment in real estate development deducted. Investment in infrastructure grew by 4.1%; that in manufacturing grew by 9.2%; and that in real estate development dropped by 10.1%.
The floor space of newly-built commercial buildings sold was 702.84 million square meters, down by 17.1% year on year, a decline narrowed by 1.9 percentage points and 0.9 percentage points respectively compared with that in the first half year and in the first eight months; and the total sales of newly-built commercial buildings were 6,888.0 billion yuan, down by 22.7 percent, a decline narrowed by 2.3 percentage points and 0.9 percentage points respectively compared with that in the first half year and in the first eight months.
Private investment declined by 0.2%, or up by 6.4% with the investment in real estate development deducted. Investment in high-tech industries grew by 10.0% year on year, of which the investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services grew by 9.4% and 11.4% respectively. In terms of high-tech manufacturing, the investment in manufacturing of aerospace vehicle and equipment and in manufacturing of electronic and communication equipment grew by 34.1% and 10.3% respectively. In terms of high-tech services, the investment in professional technical services, e-commerce services and services for transformation of scientific and technological achievements grew by 31.8%, 14.8% and 14.8% respectively.
The total value of imports and exports of goods was 32,325.2 billion yuan, an increase of 5.3% year on year. The total value of exports was 18,614.7 billion yuan, up by 6.2%. The total value of imports was 13,710.4 billion yuan, up by 4.1%.
Trade with BRI countries grew by 6.3$, accounting for 47.1% of the total value of imports and exports. Exports of mechanical and electrical products grew by 8.0%, accounting for 59.3% of the total value of exports.
CPI rose by 0.3% year on year, 0.2 percentage points higher than that of the first half year.
Urban surveyed unemployment rate averaged 5.1%.
Also on Sunday, the paper reported on Xi Jinping inspecting a brigade of the PLA Rocket Force in Hefei. Zhang Youxia accompanied Xi. The report said that:
Xi emphasised the need to thoroughly implement thought on strengthening the military in the new era, implement military strategic policies of the new era, grasp the characteristics and laws of the construction and operational application of the strategic missile force, adhere to political leadership, strengthen mission responsibility, work hard and practically, promote force construction high-quality development, enhance strategic deterrence and actual combat capability, resolutely complete various tasks entrusted by the Party and the people. 中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平17日到火箭军某旅视察，强调要深入贯彻新时代强军思想，贯彻新时代军事战略方针，把握战略导弹部队建设和作战运用特点规律，坚持政治引领，强化使命担当，埋头苦干实干，推进部队建设高质量发展，提升战略威慑和实战能力，坚决完成党和人民赋予的各项任务.
Xi visited the brigade’s training field, where he learned about the tactical and technical performance of the brigade’s newly introduced weaponry and equipment and examined its training in operating the arms.
He then delivered a speech during his visit. He said:
“It is necessary to promote the implementation of the spirit of the Central Military Commission’s political work conference among the troops, highlight the role of Party committees and leading cadres at this level, closely connect with the actual situation of the troops, continue to deepen political rectification, and do a solid job in all aspects of political army building. It is necessary to adhere to the Party’s absolute leadership over the army, deepen the Party’s theoretical arming, and carry out ideological and political work down to the launch pads in order to ensure that the troops resolutely obey the command of the Party Central Committee and the Central Military Commission at any time and under any circumstances. It is necessary to strictly implement democratic centralism, strictly observe political life within the Party, and improve the leadership, organization, and execution capabilities of the brigade Party committee. It is necessary to strengthen the construction of grassroots Party organizations, enhance ability to lead officers and soldiers to carry out tasks according to regulations, consolidate the foundation of troop building and combat effectiveness. We must focus on the root of ideological issues and strengthen discussion and analysis, and seriously investigate and deal with corruption issues and unhealthy trends around officers and soldiers.” 随后，习近平听取该旅工作汇报，并发表重要讲话。他强调，要推进中央军委政治工作会议精神在部队落地见效，突出本级党委和领导干部，紧密联系部队实际，持续深化政治整训，扎实抓好政治建军各项工作。要坚持党对军队绝对领导，深化党的创新理论武装，把思想政治工作做到发射架下，确保部队任何时候任何情况下都坚决听从党中央和中央军委指挥。要严格落实民主集中制，严肃党内政治生活，提高旅党委领导力、组织力、执行力。要加强基层党组织建设，增强按纲抓建和带领官兵遂行任务能力，夯实部队建设和战斗力基础。要扭住思想根子问题加强讨论辨析，严肃查处官兵身边的腐败问题和不正之风.
The report adds:
Xi “stressed the need to strengthen hardship consciousness (awareness of potential dangers), crisis consciousness, and consciousness regarding combat/war (忧患意识、危机意识、打仗意识), and comprehensively strengthen training and war preparedness, solidly build up the troops’ combat capabilities to effectively safeguard national strategic security and core interests. We must adapt to changes in the form of modern warfare and combat methods, closely aligning with combat tasks, combat opponents, combat environment, and carry out targeted training on new equipment, new skills, new tactics, and strengthen the specialisation and refinement of typical operations. It is necessary to strengthen supporting construction and form combat capabilities in a systematic manner. It is necessary to take positive actions based on reality, explore innovative strategic force application styles and organisational models, and give full play to the strategic functions of the weapons at our disposal. 习近平强调，要强化忧患意识、危机意识、打仗意识，全面加强练兵备战，把部队作战能力搞扎实，有力维护国家战略安全和核心利益。要适应现代战争形态和作战方式变化，紧贴作战任务、作战对手、作战环境，有针对性加强新装备、新技能、新战法训练，加强典型行动专攻精练。要加强配套建设，成体系形成实战能力。要立足实际积极作为，探索创新战略力量运用样式和组织模式，把手中武器的战略功能充分发挥出来.
Here are the key reports and articles that I found noteworthy from the People’s Daily’s edition on Monday, October 21, 2024.
Page 1: The lead story on the page is about Xi Jinping’s instructions regarding the work of national economic and technological development zones. Xi’s instructions were conveyed by Vice Premier He Lifeng during an event held in Tianjin on Sunday.
"It is necessary to be pioneers in reform and opening up, further improve the systems and mechanisms for high-level opening to the outside world; actively participate in the high-quality co-construction of the Belt and Road Initiative, expand international cooperation, innovate methods for attracting investment, and help build the ‘Invest in China’ brand; consolidate and enhance the industrial foundation of advanced manufacturing, promote the upgrading, greening, and digitalization of industries, create digital industries and future industries, and develop new productive forces in line with local conditions.” 要勇当改革开放的排头兵，进一步完善高水平对外开放体制机制；积极参与高质量共建“一带一路”，扩大国际合作，创新招商引资方式，助力打造“投资中国”品牌；巩固提升先进制造业产业基础，推动产业高端化、绿色化、数字化，打造数字产业、未来产业，因地制宜发展新质生产力.
At the top of the page is a brief story telling us that Xi sent a congratulatory message to Prabowo Subianto on assuming the presidency of Indonesia. Xinhua reports that Xi “expressed willingness to maintain close strategic communication with Prabowo to guide the building of a China-Indonesia community with a shared future to a higher level, and write a new chapter of seeking strength through unity, promoting solidarity and coordination, and achieving mutual benefit between two major developing countries.”
Finally, there’s a brief report on the new guidelines to strengthen the development of doctoral programs in the science, engineering, agriculture and medical science disciplines.
Page 3: There are a couple of articles on the page providing a preview of the BRICS summit. For instance, this article discusses economic and practical cooperation under the BRICS umbrella. Some key points:
The import and export trade volume between China and countries such as Russia, India, Brazil, and South Africa grew from 960.21 billion RMB in 2009 to 4.32 trillion RMB in 2023, with an average annual growth rate of 11.3%.
So far, the BRICS New Development Bank has approved more than 100 projects with a total amount of more than $34 billion. In 2021, the New Development Bank expanded its membership for the first time, accepting Bangladesh, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Uruguay as new members. At the end of August this year, at the 9th Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors of the New Development Bank, Algeria was officially approved to become a member of the New Development Bank.
The report also mentions China setting up the China-BRICS Science and Innovation Incubation Park for the New Era in Xiamen.
Next, there’s an article by Zhang Hanhui, China’s ambassador to Russia, on the BRICS+ Cooperation.
He argues that the “BRICS cooperation mechanism is active and effective, and its shaping power has continued to increase. The BRICS countries have built multi-level, wide-ranging and all-round cooperation mechanisms led by the heads of state meeting, have actively expanded the breadth of cooperation through the ‘BRICS+’ cooperation model, and have helped the Global South countries achieve the development goals of mutual achievement and common revitalization. The BRICS countries maintain close coordination on international affairs, defend fairness and justice, and promote world multipolarization. All parties support the development of the New Development Bank, promote the reform of the international financial system, and safeguard the development interests of the Global South countries; they have held a special video summit of BRICS leaders on the Palestinian-Israeli issue, insisted on resolving the Ukrainian crisis through dialogue and negotiation, and promoted political solutions to hotspot issues; and they have proposed ‘BRICS proposals’ regarding counter-terrorism, climate change, energy, food, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity and other domains of international governance, delivering a ‘strong voice from the South’.” 金砖合作机制积极有为，塑造力持续增强。金砖国家构筑起以元首会晤为引领的多层次、宽领域、全方位合作机制，积极通过“金砖+”合作模式拓展合作广度，助力全球南方国家实现相互成就、共同振兴的发展目标。金砖国家就国际事务保持密切协调，捍卫公平正义，推动世界多极化。各方支持新开发银行发展，推动国际金融体系改革，维护全球南方国家发展利益；举行金砖国家领导人巴以问题特别视频峰会，坚持以对话谈判解决乌克兰危机，推动热点问题政治解决；围绕反恐、气候变化、能源、粮食、人工智能、网络安全等国际治理领域提出“金砖方案”，发出“南方强音”.
He later adds: “China and Russia maintain close strategic cooperation within the BRICS cooperation mechanism. China actively supports Russia in doing a good job during its rotating presidency, building consensus and pooling strength through the Kazan meeting, promoting the great development and great achievements of BRICS+ cooperation, and working together to promote an equal and orderly world multi-polarization and inclusive economic globalization, and promoting the building of a community with a shared future for mankind.” 中俄在金砖合作机制内保持密切战略协作。中方积极支持俄方做好轮值主席国工作，以喀山会晤凝聚共识、汇集力量，推动“大金砖”实现大发展、展现大作为，合力推进平等有序的世界多极化和普惠包容的经济全球化，推动构建人类命运共同体.
Moving on, another article on the page informs that negotiations on the upgrade of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 have been substantially concluded.
It adds that the “China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 covers 9 areas, including both existing areas of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement and emerging areas with huge cooperation potential between the two sides. For the first time, China and ASEAN have reached the highest level of agreements in their respective economic and trade agreements, covering chapters on the digital economy, green economy, and supply chain connectivity. They have also achieved agreements on the highest level of standards, technical regulations, and conformity assessment procedures in their respective treaty practices. These upgrades will fully expand mutually beneficial cooperation between China and ASEAN in emerging fields, strengthen the integration of standards and rules between the two sides, jointly build a safe, stable, and efficient regional supply chain cooperation network, and elevate China-ASEAN win-win cooperation to a new level.” 中国—东盟自贸区3.0版反映了现代贸易实践，达成了若干具有重要开创性意义的成果，将为各方带来新机遇。此次升级版本涵盖9个领域，既包含中国—东盟自贸协定现有领域，也包括双方具有巨大合作潜力的新兴领域。中国与东盟首次达成各自经贸协定中最高水平的数字经济、绿色经济、供应链互联互通章节，达成各自缔约实践中最高水平的标准技术法规与合格评定程序章节。这些升级成果将全面拓展中国和东盟在新兴领域互利合作，加强双方标准和规则领域互融互通，共构安全稳定、畅通高效的区域供应链合作网络，推动中国东盟互利共赢迈上新水平.
The article adds: “Currently, the global problem of insufficient overall demand is more prominent, making the market a scarce resource for economic development. China and ASEAN’s combined populations account for a quarter of the world’s total, and their large-scale markets are the main foundation for promoting economic prosperity. The upgraded FTA will further integrate and connect the two large markets, certainly generating more significant economies of scale, industrial clustering effects, and development spillover effects”. 中国和东盟总人口规模占全世界的1/4，超大规模市场是双方促进经济繁荣的最大依托。升级版自贸区将促进中国、东盟两大市场更紧密更有机的融合联通，一定能形成更为显著的规模经济效应、产业集聚效应、发展外溢效应.
The article also makes the point that the completion of negotiations on the deal also “reflects the clear attitude of both sides to firmly support multilateralism and free trade.”
Page 16: There is an article by Zheng Zongwen discussing the BRICS summit. The author writes that more than 30 countries have applied to join the BRICS cooperation mechanism, demonstrating the increasing appeal and attraction of the BRICS cooperation mechanism.” Zheng argues that the popularity of the BRICS is the “choice of history and the call of the times.” A key point that the author makes is: “One arrow is easily broken, but ten arrows are hard to bend.” 一箭易断，十箭难折.
BRICS cooperation has always taken independence and self-reliance as its cornerstone, demonstrating responsibility for promoting human social progress. Faced with the choice between peaceful coexistence or confrontation and antagonism, BRICS countries adhere to the role positioning of "not starting from scratch/a new system/starting over, not engaging in camp confrontation, not wanting to replace anyone’ (不另起炉灶、不搞阵营对抗、不想取代谁), uphold the spirit of mutual respect and understanding, equal treatment, unity and mutual assistance, openness and inclusiveness, and consensus through consultation, striving to seek the greatest common divisor and draw the largest concentric circle. From respecting each other's development paths to resolutely opposing interference in other countries' internal affairs, from jointly defending development rights to jointly exploring the path of modernization, every step forward in BRICS cooperation crystallises profound thinking on changing one’s own destiny and pursuing reform and progress, and demonstrates the tremendous power of the collective awakening of the vast number of developing countries. At present, certain major countries, driven by geopolitical objectives, are seeking to coerce other countries to take sides and create camp confrontation, disregarding other countries’ interests and engaging in self-centeredness, arbitrarily containing and suppressing emerging market countries and developing countries. The enlarged BRICS as the first echelon of the Global South will stride forward along the path of independence, self-reliance, and united self-strengthening, continuing to build a solid ‘golden defense line’ to safeguard the common interests of developing countries. 金砖合作始终以独立自主为基石，为推动人类社会进步彰显担当。面对是和平共处还是对立对抗的抉择，金砖国家坚守“不另起炉灶、不搞阵营对抗、不想取代谁”的角色定位，秉持互尊互谅、平等相待、团结互助、开放包容、协商一致的精神，努力寻求最大公约数、画出最大同心圆。从尊重各自发展道路到坚决反对干涉别国内政，从共同捍卫发展权利到携手探寻现代化之路，金砖合作前行的每一步都凝结着对改变自身命运、追求变革进步的深刻思考，都展现着广大发展中国家集体觉醒的磅礴力量。当前，个别大国出于地缘政治目的，胁迫别国选边站队，制造阵营对抗，漠视别国权益大搞唯我独尊，对新兴市场国家和发展中国家肆意围堵打压。扩员后的“大金砖”作为“全球南方”第一方阵，将沿着独立自主、联合自强的道路阔步前行，继续为捍卫发展中国家共同利益筑牢“金色防线”.
The next bit talks about BRICS cooperation essentially being a win-win model, focussing on key areas, such as economic development, technology, production and supply chain cooperation, food security cooperation and sustainable development.
“BRICS cooperation has always pursued fairness and justice, contributing wisdom to improving the global governance system. Faced with the contest between multilateralism and hegemony and power politics, BRICS countries represent the Global South countries in voicing more just opinions. From maintaining the authority and status of the United Nations to promoting reforms of international financial institutions, such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, BRICS countries, while maintaining the stability of the global governance system, support its timely reform and rectification of historical injustices. From holding the BRICS Leaders’ Special Video Summit on the Palestinian-Israeli Issue, to China and Brazil proposing a ‘six-point consensus’ on the political resolution of the Ukraine crisis, to establishing a ‘Friends of Peace’ group for the Ukraine crisis, BRICS countries take the lead in speaking and acting justly, playing a constructive role in promoting the resolution of international and regional hotspot issues. From establishing a working group on cybersecurity issues to setting up the ‘China-BRICS Artificial Intelligence Development and Cooperation Center’, BRICS countries actively engage with new domains of global governance, playing a positive role in ensuring equal participation of Global South countries in international affairs and safeguarding their rights. The enlarged BRICS is an expansion of the world's justice front, and will continue to contribute ‘golden wisdom’ to promote the construction of a global governance pattern featuring joint consultation, joint construction and shared benefits.” 金砖合作始终以公平正义为追求，为完善全球治理体系贡献智慧。面对多边主义和霸权强权的较量，金砖国家代表全球南方国家发出更多正义之声。从维护联合国权威和地位到推动世界银行、国际货币基金组织等国际金融机构改革，金砖国家在维护全球治理体系稳定性的同时，支持其与时俱进变革，纠正历史不公。从举行金砖国家领导人巴以问题特别视频峰会，到中国和巴西就政治解决乌克兰危机提出“六点共识”，再到成立乌克兰危机“和平之友”小组，金砖国家带头说公道话、办公道事，在推动解决国际和地区热点问题中发挥建设性作用。从成立网络安全问题工作组到建立“中国—金砖国家人工智能发展与合作中心”，金砖国家积极投身全球治理新疆域，为全球南方国家平等参与国际事务、保障权利发挥积极作用。扩员后的“大金砖”是世界正义阵线的扩大，将继续为推动构建共商共建共享的全球治理格局贡献“金色智慧”.
The author then makes the case that the BRICS is a model of inclusiveness, of seeking common ground while reserving differences, and of coexistence and cooperation among countries with different ethnicities, cultures, and systems.