Emphasising Economic Resilience - Zhong Sheng on Chemical Weapons Convention & Solomon Islands Pact - Covid Outbreaks Assessment - Defense Ministry's Briefing - Quad 'Reeks of Military Confrontation'

Apr 29, 2022

Hi folks,

Before we get to today’s edition I have one note and two recommendations to share.

First, the note. I’ll be traveling through the next week, so there will be days that I will likely skip doing the newsletter. It should all get back to normal frequency from May 11.

Now onto the recommendations.

The first one’s self-indulgent. It was a pleasure for me to be on the latest episode of the Sinica podcast along with Manjari Chatterjee Miller, Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, discussing India, China, Russia and the Ukraine war. Do check out that episode here, if you are interested.

The second is a new Substack - Discourse Power - by Tuvia Gering, focussed on Chinese foreign policy. I’ve learned a lot just by following Tuvia’s Twitter threads; so the Substack will certainly be a must-read.

Cheers,

Manoj

Here are the stories and pieces that I found noteworthy in the Friday, April 29, 2022, edition of the People’s Daily.

Page 1: If you were to look at the front page today, you’d think that it’s a really slow news day. On the top of the pis a feature story making the point that the industrial economy has been stable in Q1. There’s a lot of cherry-picking data here to make the point of stability. Of course, the more strongly this point is made in Chinese media, the more it is apparent that there are serious concerns about economic activity. Q2 of 2022 is already shaping up to be brutal. Another way of looking at this emphasis on stability, resilience and having a long-term perspective is that it is indicative that the top leadership is willing to accept even severe short-term economic pain in order to maintain its COVID policy. Anyway, some of the data points covered in the piece are:

In the first quarter, investment in the manufacturing industry increased by 15.6% year-on-year…140.8%, 24.3%, 10.2%in the first quarter, the output of new energy vehicles, solar cells and industrial robots continued to grow rapidly, and the pace of innovation has accelerated. In the first quarter, the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 14.4% year-on-year…” “According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to March, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size were 1,955.57 billion yuan, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year. Among 41 industrial categories, the total profits of 24 industries increased year-on-year.”

I think this next chunk covers the core point that the piece seeks to make.

“In the first quarter, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year-on-year, 2.6 percentage points higher than that in the fourth quarter of last year. How should we understand the current situation of the industrial economy? This growth rate was achieved against the backdrop of an increasingly complex and uncertain environment both at home and abroad. The industrial economy is resilient. At present, China's economy is facing the ‘triple pressure’ of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectations, which is prominent in the industrial sector, and the recovery is still uneven and unstable. In March, affected by the pandemic situation, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and other unfavourable factors, the supply and industrial chains were blocked, the production and operation of small and medium-sized enterprises faced difficulties, some main indicators slowed down, and the downward pressure on the economy further increased.”
“Faced with a more complex and severe external environment, various proactive and targeted policy measures have been adopted, and the resilience of industrial development has gradually emerged,” said Luo Junjie from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Luo adds that the steps taken since late last year and the new measures announced in the Government Work Report have supported the sector and “positive factors supporting the steady growth of the industrial economy are accumulating.”
“This growth rate is characterised by sound structure, high quality and greener growth, and the industrial economy is improving both in quantity and quality. Emerging industries are speeding up. The value-added of high-tech manufacturing grew 14.2 percent in the first quarter. Green transformation is accelerating. Anchored with the main direction of intelligent manufacturing, the digital green transformation and upgrading of industries is speeding up, and the level of industrial green and low-carbon development is constantly improving. In the first two months of this year, energy consumption per unit of industrial added value of enterprises above designated size fell by 7.4% year on year.”
“In the long run, boosting the industrial economy still has a solid foundation. ‘Adhering to the general principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability and deepening supply-side structural reform is a strong guarantee for boosting the industrial economy,’ said Luo Junjie. He also called for earnestly implementing the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, having the confidence to calmly respond to risks and challenges in all aspects, and coordinating epidemic prevention and control with economic and social development. ‘China's manufacturing sector has great potential for improvement, and the overall trend of recovery remains unchanged,’ said Fu Baozong from the China Academy of Macroeconomics. Fu added that in the first quarter, the investment in the manufacturing industry increased by 2.1 percentage points compared with the whole year of last year. With the acceleration of major projects and projects in the 14th Five-Year Plan of the manufacturing industry, a number of major technological transformation projects have been continuously implemented, and the role of investment in stimulating industrial growth will be fully exerted.”

一季度，规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.5%，高于去年四季度2.6个百分点。如何看待当前的工业经济运行态势？这一增速，是在国内外环境复杂性不确定性加剧背景下实现的增长，工业经济韧性足。当前我国经济面临的需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱“三重压力”，在工业领域依然突出，恢复仍不均衡不稳固。3月份受疫情、俄乌冲突等不利因素影响，产业链供应链出现堵点卡点、中小微企业生产经营出现一些困难，部分主要指标明显放缓，经济下行压力进一步加大。“面对更加复杂严峻的外部环境，各项政策举措靠前发力、精准施策，工业发展的韧性逐步显现。”工信部运行监测协调局局长罗俊杰表示，去年四季度以来出台的各项工业稳增长政策效果持续显效，今年《政府工作报告》部署实施的组合式减税降费、增强制造业核心竞争力、扩大内需等政策红利加速释放，支撑工业经济平稳增长的积极因素正在不断积累。这一增速，是结构优、质量高、更绿色的增长，工业经济实现量质齐升。新兴产业加速奔跑。一季度高技术制造业增加值同比增长14.2%。绿色转型不断加快。锚定智能制造主攻方向加快数字化绿色化改造升级，工业绿色低碳发展水平持续提升，前两个月规模以上企业单位工业增加值能耗同比下降7.4%。长远看，提振工业经济仍具有坚实基础。“坚持稳中求进工作总基调，深化供给侧结构性改革，是提振工业经济的坚强保障。”罗俊杰表示，认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，我们有信心、有底气从容应对各方面风险挑战，统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展。“我国制造业提升潜力大，恢复发展的总体态势没有改变。”中国宏观经济研究院产业所工业室主任付保宗说，一季度，制造业投资较去年全年加快2.1个百分点，随着制造业“十四五”规划重大工程和项目的加快落地，一批重大技术改造项目持续实施，投资拉动工业增长的作用将充分发挥。

The other top story on the page is the new Administrative Measures for Creating Demonstration Activities. This is a guideline issued for trial implementation. Article 1 says that the measures are designed to “standardise and strengthen the management of demonstration activities, thoroughly improve work styles, strictly refrain from formalism, effectively reduce the burden on grassroots units and give full play to the leading role of demonstration activities.” Article 2 says that the “management of demonstration activities should adhere to and strengthen the leadership of the Party, improve the political position, strengthen the ‘four consciousnesses’, strengthen the ‘four self-confidences’ and achieve the ‘two safeguards’; adhere to the people-centered development philosophy, focus on the central task, serve the overall situation, based on the new stage of development, fully, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development concept, serve and integrate into the new development pattern, and promote high-quality development; adhere to the principles of overall management, rational setting, strict examination and approval, dynamic adjustment, and practical results, and strictly comply with prescribed conditions, powers, and procedures.” 第一条为了规范和加强创建示范活动管理，深入改进作风，力戒形式主义，切实为基层减负，充分发挥创建示范引领作用，根据有关规定，制定本办法。第二条创建示范活动管理工作坚持和加强党的领导，提高政治站位，增强“四个意识”、坚定“四个自信”、做到“两个维护”；坚持以人民为中心的发展思想，围绕中心、服务大局，立足新发展阶段，完整、准确、全面贯彻新发展理念，服务和融入新发展格局，推动高质量发展；坚持统筹管理、合理设置、严格审批、动态调整、注重实效的原则，严格按照规定的条件、权限和程序进行.

Third, there’s a report on the progress in the 20th Party Congress election process in Shanghai. The article says that “In the process of recommendation and nomination, more than 110,000 Party organisations across the city have been engaged and more than 2.18 million Party members have participated.” The Shanghai Municipal Party Committee and all recommending units have set up election leading groups to study and formulate work plans and have held meetings on the work arrangements and training for deputies to the Party’s 20th National Congress in order to ensure that they are fully aware of their responsibilities.”

The next paragraph talks about a quota system that ensures a “reasonable structure and wide distribution” in terms of the deputies that are recommended and selected. This is done by taking into account “the economic and social development of Shanghai and the actual situation of Party members, and comprehensively considering the distribution of industries, fields and regions.” For instance, the piece informs that the Party Committee of the SASAC of Shanghai focused on recommending exemplary role models in the key grassroots party organisations.

In terms of qualifications, the piece talks about “giving top priority to political standards” and the focus on maintaining “strict control when it comes to political positions and integrity of candidates.” The article adds that “relevant recommending units set up special inspection groups to identify the political quality indicators and conduct a comprehensive investigation of the political performance of the recommended candidates.” 严格审查把关。坚持把政治标准放在首位，严把人选政治关、廉洁关，制定印发考察工作方案，对党员领导干部、生产和工作第一线党员分别明确考察工作要求。相关推荐单位专门成立考察小组，将政治素质指标具象化，对推荐人选政治表现进行全面考察。考察工作人员说：“从人选的工作圈谈到生活圈，从怎么说谈到怎么做，我们对推荐提名人选有了更立体丰富的认识.”

Page 2: A few reports to note on the page. First, a long piece (related Xinhua English report) that talks about the steps being taken to support enterprises engaged in foreign trade. The piece says that in a recent notice, jointly released by the State Taxation Administration and nine other government departments, the authorities decided to further leverage export tax rebates for these enterprises. This has proved to be effective in lowering operating costs and easing cash shortages for foreign trade enterprises.

On April 28, Wang Daoshu, the deputy director of the State Administration of Taxation, said that the notice contains 15 provisions to support enterprises. The piece quotes Yuan Xiaoming, Director-General of the Finance Department of the Ministry of Commerce, saying that the ministry will support enterprises via the following:

Export tax rebates will be better aligned with export credit insurance. Export credit insurance indemnities received by foreign trade enterprises will be regarded as foreign exchange receipts and rebates will be provided accordingly.
Guide all localities to continue to give full play to the role of special funds for foreign economic and trade development, improve the public service system, and help enterprises diversify and open up markets by supporting small and medium-sized enterprises to participate in online and offline exhibitions, speeding up the digital development of trade, and connecting domestic and foreign supply and marketing channels.
Guide local businesses to continue to strengthen cooperation with financial institutions, and encourage financial institutions to further increase investment in foreign trade credit in accordance with the principle of marketization.
Export credit insurance agencies will be revitalised to further expand insurance coverage and scale for small and medium-sized trade firms, helping them hedge against foreign exchange risks. Also, improve the convenience of cross-border RMB settlement.
The average time needed for export rebates will be further shortened from seven to no more than six working days this year.

“The report also adds that in recent years, tax authorities have continued to crack down on tax-related crimes such as ‘counterfeit enterprises’, counterfeit goods’, and ‘counterfeit declarations’, creating a strong deterrent. In 2021, the State Administration of Taxation, together with the Ministry of Public Security, the Supreme People's Procuratorate, the General Administration of Customs, the People's Bank of China, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, will expand and establish a standardised working mechanism across the six agencies to crack down on tax fraud.” 近年来，税务部门持续打击“假企业”“假出口”“假申报”等涉税违法犯罪行为，产生强大威慑力。2021年，国家税务总局联合公安部、最高检、海关总署、人民银行、外汇局，扩展形成6部门常态化打击虚开骗税违法犯罪工作机制。

The rest of the pieces on the page are around the current COVID situation in China. Again, the focus is on projecting control, the work that governments are doing and improvements that are taking place. A measure of this is the fact that the outbreak in Beijing gets no mention in the paper.

Hindustan Times reports that:

“Beijing on Thursday locked down some communities, moved several schools online and suspended gatherings in public spaces in a scramble to prevent a Shanghai-like large-scale Covid outbreak in the Chinese capital. The city reported 50 Covid cases for April 27, pushing the caseload to around 150 so far, amid ongoing mass nucleic acid testing of the vast majority of Beijing’s 22 million residents by Saturday. In some of the locked down communities, located in “control areas”, new rounds of testing will be carried out on alternative days until May 4. Children from six schools and two kindergartens accounted for 31% of the infections.”

Anyway, in PD, there’s a report based on the State Council’s Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism’s briefing. Wu Liangyou, deputy director of the National Health Commission's Bureau of Disease Control and Prevention, said that:

Since April, 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities and the XPCC have reported a total of 553,251 local infections. Generally speaking, the current epidemic situation in China has the following characteristics:

First, in April, a total of 261 cities reported local outbreaks. The number of cities reporting local outbreaks has decreased slightly compared with March, but it is still at a high level.
Second, there is a coexistence of large-scale and scattered clustered outbreaks. The number of reported infections in Shanghai and Jilin Province accounted for more than 95% of the national total.
Third, there are many chains of epidemic transmission across different provinces, including outbreaks from one province spilling into other provinces and outbreaks where the local source of infection is unclear. This increases the complexity and arduousness of prevention and control work.

The epidemic situation in Jilin Province continues to decline; the overall epidemic situation in Shanghai is showing a clear downward trend, and the community transmission risk is gradually reducing. Despite this, the prevention and control situation remains severe. 吴良有介绍，4月以来，31个省区市和新疆生产建设兵团累计报告本土感染者553251例。总体来看，近期全国疫情主要有以下几个特点：一是继续呈现点多面广态势。4月共有261个地市报告本土疫情，报告本土疫情的地市数较3月份略有减少，但仍处于高位。二是规模化与散在聚集性疫情并存。上海市和吉林省两地报告感染者数占全国总数的95%以上。三是继续呈现多点多源多链的复杂局面。多个省份的疫情传播链条多，既有外省溢入疫情，也有本地源头不清的疫情，增加了防控的复杂性和艰巨性. “吉林省疫情呈持续下降态势；上海市疫情整体呈现明显下降趋势，社会面疫情风险正逐步降低，但防控形势依然严峻。”吴良有说.

The remarks of other officials in the report focus on the May Day holiday-related issues. This includes travel and transportation. Towards the end, the report talks about the vaccination of elderly people in China. Wu Liangyou says that 215 million people aged 60 and above, or 81.44 percent of the age group, have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 on the Chinese mainland. Nearly 160 million of them also got a booster shot.

Third, there’s a report about the steps taken by different departments and regions to ensure work resumption amid the COVID outbreaks across the country. It says that “as of now, more than 20 provinces have introduced relevant measures to ensure the smooth flow of the industrial chain and supply chain and enhance the resilience of the industrial chain and supply chain.”

For instance, in Jilin, Song Xiaohui, deputy director of the Jilin Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, is quoted as saying that “at present, all 500 key enterprises in the province have resumed work and production.’ The next step will be to help enterprises solve problems such as logistics and transportation, financing needs and factor guarantee, and help enterprises achieve stable and full production as soon as possible. “目前，全省500户重点企业全部实现复工复产。”吉林省工信厅副厅长宋晓辉表示，下一步将着力帮助企业解决物流运输、融资需求、要素保障等难题，助力企业尽快实现稳产满产.

Anhui has sorted out the supply chain obstruction of 302 key industrial chains, and coordinated them at different levels, effectively alleviating the supply chain pressure in key industries such as automobiles and electronic information. Shandong Province has selected and integrated 11 iconic industrial chains, supported enterprises occupying a dominant position in the supply chain to take the lead in researching and making breakthroughs in the list of key products (technologies), guide upstream and downstream enterprises to jointly build and share channels, and stabilise the supply and marketing system. 通过加强与重点企业沟通对接，安徽梳理出302户重点产业链供应链受阻情况，分级分层协调，有效缓解汽车、电子信息等重点行业的供应链压力。山东省优选整合11条标志性产业链，支持“链主”企业牵头研究攻关突破关键产品（技术）清单，引导上下游共建共享渠道，稳定供销体系.

Another report on the page informs that Changchun and Jilin cities are returning to normalcy.

That said, do read this interview with Joerg Wuttke, President of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, on the economic impact and political dimensions of the zero-COVID policy.

“The current lockdown is even more extreme than in early 2020, and the economy is crashing almost as hard. Just to give you a few numbers: Freight traffic volumes in the Shanghai metropolitan area plunged by 81% year-on-year in the first three weeks of April. Jiangsu province recorded a drop of 30%. Nationwide, freight volumes in April are down 15% year-on-year. There are currently no trains running between Nanjing and Shanghai; the authorities in Nanjing are so riddled with fear that they won’t allow any traffic. In Guangdong province, China’s economic powerhouse, freight volumes have plunged by 17%, even though there is no lockdown. Supply chains within China are so tightly knit that lockdown measures in one place have ripple effects on other regions.”
He terms the stimulus measures “like a band-aid for an amputation.” On the zero-COVID policy, he says:
“For the past two years, the party leadership and government have spun the narrative that China has handled the pandemic much better than the decadent West. Now this narrative is blowing up in their faces. The population is genuinely afraid of the virus. Anyone who tests positive here is taken from home like a convict and forced into a camp with thousands of other people. Conditions there are sometimes deplorable, and it is often there that people fall really ill. I try to tell my contacts in the government that they could take an example from Singapore, where the government deals very pragmatically with the virus and society has learned to live with it.
Q. Are you(r remarks) falling on deaf ears?
A. “Officially? Totally. But in closed meetings – especially in ministries that deal with the economy and businesses – I meet very well-informed and open-minded top politicians. They know what Zero Covid means for the economy. It’s just that they can’t use this knowledge to bring about policy change at the moment. Until the 20th Party Congress, which will take place later this year, they will stick to the Zero Covid policy. President Xi wants to be confirmed for a third term, so he cannot change his narrative this close to the finish line. The president has maneuvered himself into two dead ends at once: He can’t change his Covid policy, and he can’t change anything about his friendship with Wladimir Putin.”
Finally, this paragraph:
Q. So given the choice between pandemic control and the economy, the economy gets the short end of the stick?
A. “Yes. The political signalling st clear. The mayors, the regional politicians, they all have only one metric right now: Zero Covid. Imagine you're a mayor of a medium-sized city and a truck comes with supplies for a local factory with parts from the Shanghai area. Do you let the truck pass and run the risk that the driver will bring Omicron and you will have local contagions? You won’t get kicked out of your job if the economy in your area is doing poorly on average – but you will lose your job if you have Covid in your city. The system’s focus on Zero Covid leads to many decision makers being in a kind of self-destruction mode. They don’t care about the economy in the short term. In current politics, the business people hardly get through anymore. The fear is too great, and time and again you get confirmation from above: If you have Covid in your city, you have a problem.”

Page 3: A lot to cover from the page. First, Defense Minister Wei Fenghe met with Omani Deputy Prime Minister for Defense Affairs Sayyid Shihab bin Tarik Al Said. Xinhua reports:

Shihab bin Tarik said that “Oman, which pursues a foreign policy of developing friendly relations with all countries and is keenly aware of the complex factors behind many hotspot issues in the region, expected China to play a bigger role in regional and international affairs…He lauded the two militaries for having carried out practical cooperation in equipment and personnel training in recent years, while calling for expanding the areas of cooperation so as to further push forward the bilateral military ties. For his part, the Chinese defense minister said that China is Oman's sole strategic partner, which fully demonstrates the uniqueness of the China-Oman relations…while highlighting China’s support for Oman in safeguarding national sovereignty, independence, and social stability. He also raised concerns about the interference from certain major countries in Middle Eastern affairs, which jeopardizes the stability and security in the region. China appreciates Oman's unique and positive role in promoting the political settlement of regional issues, said Wei, adding that China stands ready to work with Oman to enrich the bilateral strategic partnership and expand friendly cooperation in all areas. Calling the Omani military an important cooperative partner of the Chinese military, Wei said that the Chinese military is willing to work with its Omani counterpart to raise the level of cooperation in joint drills, military technology, logistics support, and personnel training.”

Second, a brief report based on China’s Ministry of National Defense’s monthly briefing. The only aspect of the briefing that is covered in PD is when Senior Colonel Tan Kefei spoke about China-US ties in the context of the chat between Wei Fenghe and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. Tan said that the two sides had a “frank, in-depth and constructive strategic communication. Both sides agreed that the Chinese and American armed forces should keep communication channels open, control risks and promote the construction of a crisis communication mechanism.” He added that “a stable relationship between the two armies is in the common interests of both countries and the common expectation of the international community. We ask the US side to truly implement President Biden's statement of ‘four no intentions’.”

I think these come from the November 2021 Biden-Xi call. They are that the US does not intend to change China’s system; the revitalization of its alliances is not targeted at China; the US does not support ‘Taiwan independence’; and it has no intention to seek a conflict with China.

Anyway, Tan also talks about China having taken “firm and forceful countermeasures against the US military provocations, smears, threats and pressure with regard to Taiwan, maritime and air security, Ukraine and other issues.” — I am not quite sure what US military provocation with regard to Ukraine he is referring to.

In terms of other issues mentioned at the briefing, Tan attacked the US and Japan for “fabricating the so-called ‘China space threat’.” Xinhua reports:

“The United States has continued to promote the process of space militarization with a Cold War mentality, establishing a space command, and developing and deploying offensive space weapons, Tan said. As the country with the greatest number of satellites, the United States has long been stonewalling space arms control, he said. Noting that Japan has also been progressive in its military construction in space, Tan said that the moves of the two countries have raised the risk of weaponization and an arms race in outer space, and negatively affected global strategic stability.”

On the Solomon Islands pact issue, he said:

“Recently, Australian officials and media have repeatedly hyped up the security cooperation between China and Solomon Islands, deliberately distorting facts and creating tension, which is extremely irresponsible. China is firmly opposed to it.’ As two independent and sovereign countries, China and Solomon Islands, on the basis of equality and mutual benefit, carry out cooperation in maintaining social order, protecting the safety of people’s lives and property, conducting humanitarian aid and tackling natural disasters, etc., the spokesperson said. The cooperation benefits the Solomon Islands' social stability and long-term peace and order, and also serves the common interests in the South Pacific region, Snr. Col. Tan stressed. ‘We urge relevant parties to stop hyping up the 'China military threat theory' and do more practical things that serve peace, stability and prosperity in the South Pacific region,’ Tan added.”

Also this on Taiwan:

“According to reports, some US officials recently indicated publicly that they would steadfastly fulfill the commitment to safeguarding Taiwan, and ‘help Taiwan in the same way they support Ukraine’ to improve Taiwan's self-defense capability. And according to Taiwan's defense authorities, in response to the threat from the mainland, Taiwan military would adopt the ‘combination of training and combat preparation’ mode to verify its combat plan and battlefield construction, and carry out ‘Lian Hsiang exercise’ to simulate the PLA's attack on Taiwan.
In his response, Senior Colonel Tan pointed out that certain US officials have recently made numerous erroneous remarks on Taiwan, while some US senators have visited Taiwan in an attempt to rally support for ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists. This is seriously incongruous with the US commitment not to support ‘Taiwan independence’ and demonstrates that the US has no credibility. China is vehemently opposed to it, said Senior Colonel Tan. Tan added that the DPP authorities, out of their own political selfish interests, disregard the safety and well-being of the Taiwan compatriots, and attempt to divide the country in collusion with external forces. This is an utterly wrong calculation. There will be an increasing number of Taiwan compatriots who see through the DPP authorities' scam of ‘relying on the US to seek independence’, recognize the truth about their forgetfulness on the origin and the betrayal of the motherland, and thus refuse to fall victim to ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists ‘seeking independence by force.’ Tan mentioned that in response to the US officials' provocative visit to Taiwan, the Chinese PLA has recently conducted military operations in the seas and airspace around the Taiwan Strait. ‘From now on, we will not tolerate any provocation by the DPP authorities for seeking "independence" or interference by external forces, and we will continue to demonstrate firm resolve to safeguard China's national sovereignty and territorial integrity through resolute actions’. –

(Quick thought: In the limited amount that I’ve followed this space, in general, I think that PLA air and sea activity around Taiwan have been scaled down since the Winter Olympics and then the war in Ukraine. I wonder if this statement acknowledges that and now suggests that we will see an uptick?)

Next, there are two Zhong Sheng commentaries on the page. The first one focuses on the 25th anniversary of the Chemical Weapons Convention coming into force, which is today. It says that:

The comprehensive, balanced and effective implementation of the Convention is still a long way off. In recent years, there have been many incidents of alleged use of chemical weapons in some regions, and the spectre of chemical weapons has not dissipated. Some countries have used the issues of chemical weapons to provoke confrontation and suppress dissidents; as the only country with chemical weapons stockpiles, the United States, as the only country with chemical weapons stockpiles, continues to delay their destruction. The destruction of chemical weapons abandoned by Japan in China is seriously lagging behind, threatening the lives and property of the Chinese people and the safety of ecological environment; developing countries still face discriminatory restrictions on their participation in peaceful uses of chemical technology and in international cooperation. 然而，全面、平衡、有效落实公约依然道阻且长。近年来，一些地区多次发生指称使用化学武器事件，化学武器的幽灵仍未消散；一些国家利用化学武器热点问题挑动对抗、打压异己；美国作为唯一拥有库存化学武器的国家，不断推迟化武销毁时间；日本遗弃在华化学武器的销毁工作严重滞后，威胁中国人民的生命财产和生态环境安全；发展中国家参与化工领域技术的和平利用及国际合作仍面临歧视性限制。

The author then says that after 25 years, there are three lessons worth keeping in mind:

First, everyone must keep in mind the original intention and strictly fulfill their international obligations. This means that the US must destroy its stockpiles and Japan must fulfill obligations related to chemical weapons abandoned in China.
Second, uphold genuine multilateralism and resolutely oppose political manipulation. The piece argues that in recent years, the OPCW has faced “the most severe challenge since its establishment.” Some countries, like the United States, have engaged in political manipulation on the issue of chemical weapons in Syria, creating a split among States, which has seriously impacted the authority and effectiveness of the Convention.” 近年来，禁止化学武器组织面临成立以来最严峻的挑战。美国等部分国家在叙利亚化武等问题上大搞政治操弄，制造缔约国的分裂，公约的权威性和有效性受到严重冲击.
Third, it is necessary to attach equal importance to development and security, and constantly stimulate the vitality of the Convention. The author adds that the “benefits of economic and technological development in the chemical industry is the legitimate right granted to states who are parties to the Convention…however, some countries have placed unilateral emphasis on non-proliferation and have been blindly chanting the ‘incantation aimed at binding’ (jǐn gū zhòu - 紧箍咒) developing countries, which seriously violated the spirit of the Convention. It is urgent and necessary to formulate practical action plans and get rid of unreasonable restrictions on economic, trade and technical cooperation in the chemical industry…” 要坚持发展与安全并重，不断激发公约活力。享受化工领域经济和技术发展红利，是公约赋予缔约国的合法权利，也是发展中国家加入公约的出发点和落脚点。25年来，缔约国推动化学领域国际合作取得积极进展，禁止化学武器组织开展的能力建设项目，惠及成千上万的化学工作者。然而，一些国家片面强调防扩散，一味给发展中国家念“紧箍咒”，严重违背公约精神。当务之急是制订切实管用的行动计划，革除化工领域经贸、技术合作的不合理限制，这样才能凝聚缔约国合力，释放公约促进发展的潜力.

The piece then says that “China has always resolutely safeguarded the authority of the Convention and fulfilled its obligations in an exemplary manner. China is the second largest contributor to the OPCW and has made important contributions to ensuring the operation of the global disarmament and security governance system. China has established an effective implementation system covering the whole country, and has received 593 inspections by the OPCW, the most for any country. China has participated constructively in solving the hot issues of chemical weapons, adhered to an objective and fair position, and made outstanding contributions to eliminating chemical weapons and resolving regional crises. China unswervingly supports the promotion of international cooperation in the chemical industry and firmly safeguards the legitimate rights and interests of developing countries, which has been widely praised by the international community.”中国一直坚决维护公约权威，模范履行公约义务。中国是禁止化学武器组织的第二大会费缴纳国，为保障全球化武裁军和安全治理体系运作作出重要贡献。中国建立了覆盖全国、管理有效的履约体系，迄已接受禁止化学武器组织593次视察，是接受视察次数最多的国家。中国建设性参与解决化武热点问题，坚持客观、公正立场，为消除化学武器、化解地区危机作出突出贡献。中国坚定不移支持推进化工领域国际合作，坚定维护发展中国家合法权益，受到国际社会的广泛赞誉。

The second Zhong Sheng commentary is about the Solomon Islands security pact. The piece acrusses the US and Australia of “putting pressure on the Solomon Islands government, discrediting China's normal cooperation and even making naked threats. All kinds of fallacies spread by the United States, Australia and other countries are not only untenable, but also expose their own deep-seated power mentality and hegemonic thinking.” 然而，美国、澳大利亚等国政客却频频对所罗门群岛政府施压，抹黑中所正常合作，甚至发出赤裸裸威胁。美、澳等国散布的种种谬论不仅站不住脚，反倒将自己内心深处的强权心态和霸道思维暴露得淋漓尽致.

The first “fallacy” addressed is that the agreement is unnecessary. In this regard, the piece argues that recent riots that left hundreds of overseas Chinese displaced and resulted in losses to property led to policing cooperation between China and the Solomon Islands. “At the request of the local government, China sent a temporary police advisory group”, a move that was “widely welcomed by the local government and the community.” The article adds that Facts have fully proved that deepening normal law enforcement and security cooperation with China on the basis of equal treatment, mutual benefit and win-win results is a realistic choice made by the Solomon Islands side in view of its own security situation, and is the outcome of the development of China-Solomon Islands relations.” 事实充分证明，在平等相待、互利共赢基础上，同中国深化正常执法和安全合作，是所方着眼自身安全形势做出的现实选择，是中所关系发展的成果.

The second “fallacy” is that this is “interference in internal affairs” of another country. In this, the piece says that Australia and some other countries have argued that the China-Solomon Islands agreement should be sent to the Pacific Island Forum for review. In response, the article argues that:

“a careful study of the history of the security cooperation mechanism in the South Pacific region and relevant cooperation documents will reveal that these are fallacies. The security cooperation mechanism in the South Pacific region is aimed at maintaining security and stability of countries and regions and of the region, rather than creating a closed and exclusive ‘clique’. The Aitutaki Declaration, Biketawa Declaration and the Boe Declaration Action Plan all reaffirm the principles of non-interference in other countries' internal affairs and respect for the sovereignty of member countries. The Boe Declaration clearly stipulates that the sovereignty of each member state to handle state affairs without external interference and coercion should be respected and safeguarded. The Security Cooperation Framework Agreement between China and the Solomon Islands is a sovereign act between the two countries. Signing the agreement with China is a part of the national security strategy of that country, providing itself with a new option to ensure its own security and stability. It complements the regional security mechanism and forms synergy with the constructive assistance provided by other parties.”只要仔细研究南太地区安全合作机制发展史和有关合作文件，就会发现这些纯属谬论。南太地区安全合作机制旨在维护南太各国和地区的安全稳定，绝非打造封闭、排他的“小圈子”。《艾图塔基宣言》《比克塔瓦宣言》《博埃宣言行动计划》等南太地区安全合作机制基础文件，均重申不干涉他国内政、尊重成员国主权等原则。《博埃宣言》明文规定，尊重并维护每个成员国在不受外部干涉和胁迫情况下处理国家事务的主权。中所安全合作框架协议是两国之间的主权行为，同中方签署协议是所方国家安全战略的一部分，为所方保障自身安全稳定提供了新的选项，同地区安全机制相互补充，与其他各方提供的建设性帮助形成合力. — (Quick thought: Of course, when others do something it is a clique or Asian NATO in the making that’s emerging from the Cold War mentality; but when China does something, it’s a sovereign act of a country to provide itself with options.)

The next paragraph says:

“Politicians in some Western countries are deliberately distorting the spirit of the agreement, which amounts to gross interference in the internal affairs of island countries, naked bullying and ‘coercive diplomacy’, and exposes their deep-rooted colonialist mentality and hegemonic intentions. The South Pacific island countries are independent sovereign states, not the backyard of the United States, Australia and other countries. Any attempt to transplant the Monroe Doctrine to the South Pacific will be unpopular and will eventually fail.” 一些西方国家政客刻意歪曲宣言精神，才是对岛国内政的粗暴干涉，是赤裸裸的霸凌行径和“胁迫外交”，暴露出他们内心深处的殖民者心态和霸权图谋。南太岛国是独立主权国家，不是美、澳等国的后院，任何将“门罗主义”移植到南太地区的图谋都不得人心，终将失败。

Finally, the third fallacy is the idea that the agreement will lead to the “destabilisation of the region.” In response to this, the article says that on April 22, a US delegation visited the Solomon Islands, warning that the agreement with China would “trigger significant concerns” and a response from the US. On the same day, the Chinese ambassador to the Solomon Islands was part of a ceremony with Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare handing over a training track and football field site for the 2023 Pacific Games stadium project. “The discerning eye will know who is creating troubles and provoking regional tensions and who is sincerely helping island countries develop.” 谁在制造事端、挑动地区局势紧张，谁在真心诚意帮助岛国发展，明眼人一看便知.

The next paragraph lashes out at the AUKUS agreement for being “opaque” and expanding the “risk of nuclear proliferation and militarization into the South Pacific.” It also dismisses arguments that China is looking to establish a military base in the Solomon Islands. It says that the United States and Australia have “fabricated rumours that China will build a military base there.” It says that this shows their “very sinister intentions.” It adds that China’s “security cooperation focuses on maintaining social order, protecting people's lives and property, humanitarian assistance, and natural disaster response, and is committed to helping other countries to strengthen their own security capacity building.” 美、澳还凭空捏造“中国将在所建立军事基地”等谣言，用心十分险恶。中所安全合作聚焦维护社会秩序、保护人民生命和财产安全、人道主义援助、自然灾害应对，致力于帮助所方加强维护本国安全的能力建设，是维护地区和平稳定的正能量，与所谓的“军事基地”扯不上任何关系。反倒是美英澳拼凑的所谓三边安全伙伴关系，不仅不公开、不透明，更是将核扩散和军事化风险引入南太，严重威胁地区安全稳定.

Page 9: On the theory page, the lead piece is by Wang Changlin and Guo Liyan from the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomics. They basically argue that “although the downward pressure on the economy is increasing, the fundamentals of China’s economic stability and long-term development have not changed.” I am not doing a full breakdown, but their diagnosis of the problems facing China’s economy are worth highlighting.

They argue that it is important to “not only see the downward pressure on the economy, but also see the opportunities that the current situation creates, in order to deal with the difficulties and challenges facing the current economic development in a timely and effective manner.”

“Internally, the essential conditions of China’s economic development are undergoing profound changes: the total population is approaching the peak, and there is deepening degree of ageing; the growth rate of infrastructure and real estate investment has slowed down, the growth rate of fixed assets investment has declined, and the contribution of capital formation to economic growth has decreased; the advantage of being a latecomer in terms of technological innovation has weakened, and the economy has entered the stage of relying more on independent innovation; land, resources and other constraints are gradually strengthening, and the old combination of production functions is difficult to sustain…With major changes in China’s population, investment, technological innovation and other factors of production, the Chinese economy has entered a critical stage of transforming the growth model, optimising the economic structure, and shifting the drivers of growth. We are facing both downward pressure on the economy and opportunities to take it to higher levels. As long as we cross this barrier, we will open up new space for development and achieve high-quality development.
Externally, for a long time after the reform and opening-up, China took advantage of low labour costs and seized the opportunity of its comparative advantage in regard to labour-intensive industries in developed countries. Large-scale export and export-oriented development became an important driving force for China’s rapid economic growth. After the international financial crisis in 2008, the global economic structure has been greatly adjusted, and China's economy has also shifted from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage. China’s manufacturing industry has accelerated its transformation and upgrading, moving towards the high end of the global industrial chain. Individual developed countries have tried their best to curb China’s development, and resorted to all means to contain and suppress China's high-tech enterprises, which shows that China's economic strength, scientific and technological strength and international competitiveness have been continuously enhanced. Facing the new international and domestic situation, as long as we fully, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development concept, speed up the construction of a new development pattern and achieve high-level self-reliance, we can achieve high-quality development.”

从内部看，我国经济发展的要素条件正在发生深刻变化：人口总量接近峰值，老龄化程度加深；基础设施和房地产投资增速趋缓，固定资产投资增速下降，资本形成对经济增长的贡献减少；技术创新后发优势减弱，进入更多依靠自主创新的阶段；土地、资源等约束条件逐步强化，旧的生产函数组合方式难以持续；等等。随着我国人口、投资、技术创新等要素条件发生重大阶段性变化，我国经济进入转变发展方式、优化经济结构、转换增长动力的攻关期，既面临经济下行压力，也拥有迈上更高台阶的机遇。只要跨越这个关口，就能开拓新的发展空间，实现高质量发展。从外部看，改革开放后较长时期，我国利用劳动力成本低廉优势，抓住发达国家劳动密集型产业向外转移的机会，大规模出口和外向型发展成为我国经济高速增长的重要推动力。2008年国际金融危机后，全球经济结构大调整，我国经济也由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段，我国制造业加速转型升级、向全球产业链高端迈进。个别发达国家竭力遏制我国发展，不择手段围堵打压我国高科技企业，这正说明我国经济实力、科技实力和国际竞争力持续增强。面对新的国际国内形势，只要我们完整、准确、全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，实现高水平自立自强，就能实现高质量发展。

The last section of the article talks about China’s long-term advantages and strengths. These include:

A large and more skilled and educated workforce. The average age of the workforce is 38.8 years. In 2021, the average number of years of education for the working-age population was 10.9 years, the population with university education exceeding 218 million, and around 10 million college graduates each year. In addition, China has a high savings rate.
Dynamic innovation and entrepreneurship environment. “In 2021, the national R&D expenditure intensity was 2.44% of GDP, reaching the average level of developed countries; There were 696,000 invention patents granted, five times that of 2010, with an average annual increase of 16%. In recent years, China has set up more than 20,000 new enterprises every day on average, and the number of market players in the country has exceeded 150 million, with a number of promising enterprises emerging…In 2021, the scale of private equity and venture capital funds reached 12.79 trillion yuan–China has become the second largest venture capital market in the world. The innovation vitality of enterprises is enhanced. In 2020, the proportion of enterprises with R&D activities in industrial enterprises above designated size reached 36.7%, an increase of 28.2 percentage points over 2009. 2021年全国研发经费投入强度为2.44%，达到发达国家平均水平；发明专利授权69.6万件，是2010年的5倍，年均增长16%。近年来，我国平均每天新设企业超过2万户，全国市场主体已突破1.5亿户，涌现出一批前景看好的企业。早期投资、创业投资规模持续增长，2021年私募股权和创业投资基金规模达到12.79万亿元，我国已成为世界第二大创业投资市场。企业创新活力增强。2020年规模以上工业企业有研发活动的企业占比达到36.7%，比2009年提高28.2个百分点。
The industrial system has shown resilience
There remains strong market demand potential
Finally, China’s inflation rate and fiscal deficit rate are both at relatively low levels, the government debt ratio is within a reasonable range, foreign exchange reserves are sufficient, which all means that there is ample room for proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy.

Also on the page is an article by Lt. General Wang Kai and General Yin Hongxing, the commander and political commissar of the Tibet Military Region.

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