Event on India & China-Russia Axis - What SSF's Disbandment Tells Us About Policymaking in China? - Analysis of Politburo's Meeting on the Economy
Hi folks,
The May-Day break in China has meant that there is little of significance to cover in the paper. But I do have some things to share.
First, at 19:00 Indian Standard Time today, on the Open Takshashila platform, I’ll be doing a session discussing Russia-China ties and what they mean for India. I’ll cover a fair bit of history and the present-day situation. If you are interested, please RSVP and join here.
Second, a lot has been written about the disbandment of the PLA’s Strategic Support Force and the creation of the new Information Security Force. In this new piece for Firstpost, I try to use this development to think through three questions
First, has concentration of power and centralisation of decision-making enabled breaking through bureaucratic and vested interests to enact changes?
Second, what has been the impact of centralisation on the flow of information within the system, particularly to the top leader?
Third, has centralisation of power led to greater rigidity in policy thinking and implementation, resulting in the persistence of evidently adverse choices?
Third, the Politburo met earlier this week to announce that the third plenum will be held in July. It also discussed the current economic situation. In this episode of All Things Policy, my colleague Anushka Saxena and I try and breakdown the key parts of the readout from the meeting and what it tells us about the leadership’s economic priorities.
Breakdown of the Politburo Meeting’s Readout
There was a Politburo meeting on April 30 (Full English report). This meeting saw the important outcome of the announcement of the third plenary session of the 20th Central Committee, which will be held in July. According to the main agenda of the session, the Politburo will report its work to the Central Committee, and the session will primarily study issues concerning further comprehensively deepening reform and advancing Chinese modernization.
The Politburo meeting also analyzed the current economic situation and economic work, and deliberated a document on policies and measures for continuously advancing the high-quality integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta.
“The meeting pointed out that reform and opening up is an important magic weapon for the cause of the Party and the people to make great strides to catch up with the times. The current and future period is critical for comprehensively promoting the construction of a strong country and the great cause of national rejuvenation through Chinese-style modernization. Faced with complex international and domestic situations, a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, and the new expectations of the people, we must continue to push forward reform. This is an inevitable requirement to:
uphold and improve the socialist system with Chinese characteristics and promote the modernization of the national governance system and governance capabilities.
implement the new development concept and better adapt to the changes in the principal contradiction in our society.
to adhere to the people-centred approach and ensure that the results of modernization benefit all people more and more equitably.
to deal with major risks and challenges and promote the steady and long-term development of the Party and the country's undertakings.
to promote the construction of a community with a shared future for mankind and win strategic initiative amid increasingly fierce international competition.
solve the unique problems facing large parties and build a stronger and more powerful Marxist party.
The whole party must consciously put reform in a more prominent position and further comprehensively deepen reform around promoting Chinese-style modernization.” 会议指出，改革开放是党和人民事业大踏步赶上时代的重要法宝。当前和今后一个时期是以中国式现代化全面推进强国建设、民族复兴伟业的关键时期。面对纷繁复杂的国际国内形势，面对新一轮科技革命和产业变革，面对人民群众新期待，必须继续把改革推向前进。这是坚持和完善中国特色社会主义制度、推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的必然要求，是贯彻新发展理念、更好适应我国社会主要矛盾变化的必然要求，是坚持以人民为中心、让现代化建设成果更多更公平惠及全体人民的必然要求，是应对重大风险挑战、推动党和国家事业行稳致远的必然要求，是推动构建人类命运共同体、在日趋激烈的国际竞争中赢得战略主动的必然要求，是解决大党独有难题、建设更加坚强有力的马克思主义政党的必然要求。全党必须自觉把改革摆在更加突出位置，紧紧围绕推进中国式现代化进一步全面深化改革.
“The meeting emphasised that in order to further comprehensively deepen reforms, we must adhere to Marxism-Leninism, Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory, the important theory of ‘Three Represents’ and the Scientific Outlook on Development, and fully implement Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era. Conduct in-depth research and ensure implementation of General Secretary Xi Jinping’s series of new thoughts, new perspectives, and new judgments on comprehensively deepening reform; ensure complete, accurate, and comprehensive implementation of the new development concept; and adhere to the general tone of the work of seeking progress while maintaining stability. Further emancipate the mind, liberate and develop social productive forces, liberate and enhance social vitality. Coordinate domestic and international situations, promote the Five-sphere Integrated Plan, coordinate the Four-pronged Comprehensive Strategy, led by reform of the economic system, with advancing social equality and justice and improving people's well-being as both the starting point and the ultimate goal. Pay more attention to system integration, focus more on highlighting key points, and pay more attention to the effectiveness of reform, so as to promote better alignment between production relations and productive forces, superstructure and economic foundation, as well as China's governance system and social development. This will help provide a powerful driving force and institutional guarantees for Chinese-style modernization.” 会议强调，进一步全面深化改革要坚持马克思列宁主义、毛泽东思想、邓小平理论、“三个代表”重要思想、科学发展观，全面贯彻习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想，深入学习贯彻习近平总书记关于全面深化改革的一系列新思想、新观点、新论断，完整、准确、全面贯彻新发展理念，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，进一步解放思想、解放和发展社会生产力、解放和增强社会活力，统筹国内国际两个大局，统筹推进“五位一体”总体布局，协调推进“四个全面”战略布局，以经济体制改革为牵引，以促进社会公平正义、增进人民福祉为出发点和落脚点，更加注重系统集成，更加注重突出重点，更加注重改革实效，推动生产关系和生产力、上层建筑和经济基础、国家治理和社会发展更好相适应，为中国式现代化提供强大动力和制度保障.
The meeting held that since the beginning of this year, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core, all regions and departments have worked hard to grasp economic issues and consolidate and enhance the positive economic recovery trend. Positive factors in economic operation have enhanced, momentum continues to increase, social expectations have improved, high-quality development has been solidly advanced, showing the characteristics of rapid growth, structural optimization, and improved quality and efficiency, and the economy has achieved a good start. 会议认为，今年以来，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，各地区各部门鼓足干劲抓经济，巩固和增强经济回升向好态势，经济运行中积极因素增多，动能持续增强，社会预期改善，高质量发展扎实推进，呈现增长较快、结构优化、质效向好的特征，经济实现良好开局.
The meeting pointed out that the economy still faces many challenges as it continues to rebound. The main reasons are that effective demand is still insufficient, business operations are under great pressure, there are many risks and hazards in key areas, and the domestic cycle is not smooth enough. In addition, the complexity, severity, and uncertainty of the external environment have increased significantly. At the same time, it is necessary to recognize that China's economic foundation is stable, with multiple advantages, strong resilience, and great potential, with a good start and improving trend being the basic characteristics and trend of the current economic operation, and confidence in economic work should be strengthened. 会议指出，经济持续回升向好仍面临诸多挑战，主要是有效需求仍然不足，企业经营压力较大，重点领域风险隐患较多，国内大循环不够顺畅，外部环境复杂性、严峻性、不确定性明显上升。同时必须看到，我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，开局良好、回升向好是当前经济运行的基本特征和趋势，要增强做好经济工作的信心.
“The meeting emphasised that it is necessary to conscientiously implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and the Two Sessions, adhere to the general tone of the work of seeking progress while maintaining stability, completely, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, strive to promote high-quality development, persist in riding on the momentum, avoid tightening early and loosening later, and effectively consolidate and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery.” 会议强调，要认真落实中央经济工作会议和全国两会精神，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，完整、准确、全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，着力推动高质量发展，坚持乘势而上，避免前紧后松，切实巩固和增强经济回升向好态势.
The meeting pointed out that efforts should be made to effectively implement the macroeconomic policies that have been determined, and to implement proactive fiscal policies and prudent monetary policies. It is necessary to issue and make good use of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds as soon as possible, speed up the issuance and use of special bonds, maintain the necessary intensity of fiscal expenditure, and ensure that the ‘three guarantees’ at the grassroots level are disbursed on time and in full. It is necessary to flexibly use policy tools such as interest rates and deposit reserve ratios to increase support for the real economy and reduce comprehensive social financing cost. It is necessary to do a good job in assessing the consistency of macro policy orientations and strengthen expectation management. It is necessary to actively expand domestic demand and implement action plans for large-scale equipment updates and replacement of old consumer goods with new ones. It is necessary to create more consumption scenarios to better meet the people's diverse and high-quality consumption needs. It is necessary to further promote new people-centered urbanization and continue to release consumption and investment potential. It is necessary to implement a new mechanism for cooperation between government and social capital to fully stimulate the vitality of private investment. The meeting emphasized the need to develop new productive forces in accordance with local conditions. It is necessary to strengthen the layout of national strategic scientific and technological forces, cultivate and develop emerging industries, proactively plan and build future industries, and utilize advanced technology to empower the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. Actively develop venture capital and strengthen patient capital. 会议指出，要靠前发力有效落实已经确定的宏观政策，实施好积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策。要及早发行并用好超长期特别国债，加快专项债发行使用进度，保持必要的财政支出强度，确保基层“三保”按时足额支出。要灵活运用利率和存款准备金率等政策工具，加大对实体经济支持力度，降低社会综合融资成本。要做好宏观政策取向一致性评估，加强预期管理。要积极扩大国内需求，落实好大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新行动方案。要创造更多消费场景，更好满足人民群众多样化、高品质消费需要。要深入推进以人为本的新型城镇化，持续释放消费和投资潜力。要实施好政府和社会资本合作新机制，充分激发民间投资活力。会议强调，要因地制宜发展新质生产力。要加强国家战略科技力量布局，培育壮大新兴产业，超前布局建设未来产业，运用先进技术赋能传统产业转型升级。要积极发展风险投资，壮大耐心资本。
The meeting pointed out that we must unswervingly deepen reform and expand opening up, build a unified national market, and improve the basic system of the market economy. It is necessary to actively expand intermediate goods trade, service trade, digital trade, and cross-border e-commerce exports, support private enterprises in expanding overseas markets, and increase efforts to attract and utilize foreign investment. 会议指出，要坚定不移深化改革扩大开放，建设全国统一大市场，完善市场经济基础制度。要积极扩大中间品贸易、服务贸易、数字贸易、跨境电商出口，支持民营企业拓展海外市场，加大力度吸引和利用外资.
The meeting emphasized the need to continue to prevent and resolve risks in key areas. Continue to adhere to city-specific policies, consolidate the responsibilities of local governments, real estate companies, and financial institutions, effectively ensure the delivery of housing, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of home buyers. It is necessary to take into account the new changes in the supply and demand relationship in the real estate market and the people's new expectations for high-quality housing, coordinate research on policies and measures for digesting real estate inventory and optimising the quality of newly-added housing, and urgently establish a new model for real estate development to promote high-quality development in the real estate sector. It is necessary to thoroughly implement local government debt risk resolution plans to ensure that provinces, cities and counties with high debt risks can truly reduce debt and ensure stable development. It is necessary to continue to promote the reform of small and medium-sized financial institutions and eliminate risks, and take multiple measures to promote the healthy development of the capital market. 会议强调，要持续防范化解重点领域风险。继续坚持因城施策，压实地方政府、房地产企业、金融机构各方责任，切实做好保交房工作，保障购房人合法权益。要结合房地产市场供求关系的新变化、人民群众对优质住房的新期待，统筹研究消化存量房产和优化增量住房的政策措施，抓紧构建房地产发展新模式，促进房地产高质量发展。要深入实施地方政府债务风险化解方案，确保债务高风险省份和市县既真正压降债务、又能稳定发展。要持续推动中小金融机构改革化险，多措并举促进资本市场健康发展.
The meeting emphasized the need to solidly promote green and low-carbon development. Conscientiously implement the action plan for continuous improvement of air quality, strengthen the clean and efficient use of coal and the utilization of renewable energy, continue to vigorously carry out the ‘Action plan for carbon dioxide peaking before 2030’, and accelerate the construction of a recycling system for waste materials. 会议指出，要扎实推进绿色低碳发展。认真实施空气质量持续改善行动计划，加强煤炭清洁高效利用和可再生能源消纳利用，持续有力开展“碳达峰十大行动”，加快废旧物资循环利用体系建设.
“The meeting emphasized the need to effectively protect and improve people's livelihood, highlight employment-first policy orientation, promote the expansion of incomes of low- and middle-income groups, and build a tight social security network. It is necessary to consolidate and expand the results of poverty alleviation and solidly promote the comprehensive revitalization of rural areas. It is necessary to do a good job in production safety and promoting the renewal and upgrading of production safety infrastructure. Leading cadres at all levels must strictly abide by political discipline, resolutely implement the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee, and constantly create new prospects for high-quality development.” 会议强调，要切实保障和改善民生，突出就业优先导向，促进中低收入群体增收，织密扎牢社会保障网。要巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果，扎实推进乡村全面振兴。要抓好安全生产，推动安全生产基础设施更新改造升级。各级领导干部要严守政治纪律，坚决贯彻落实党中央决策部署，不断开创高质量发展新局面.
The final bits are around the development of the Yangtze River Delta. I am using Xinhua English’s summary for this:
“The meeting urged efforts to make greater breakthroughs in promoting the integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta and to better leverage its role as a pioneer, leader, and driver of regional development. It said efforts should center on integration and high quality when advancing major tasks of the regional development initiative. It called for building innovation chains, industry chains, and supply chains in a wider scope, breaking down administrative barriers, improving policy coordination, and promoting deeper and wider integration. The meeting underscores the importance for the region to take the lead in aligning with high-standard international economic and trade rules and shape new edges of a higher-level open economy. Within the region, Shanghai should play a leading role, while Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui provinces should leverage their respective strengths, so as to forge strong collaborative efforts to keep writing new chapters in the integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta.”