More on the Xi-Ma Meeting - China's Auto Sector Growth - Shi Taifeng's Tianjin Visit - New Energy Boost for Southern Provinces - Zhong Sheng Commentary on US Ties
Hi folks,
Before we get to today’s edition, let me share two new publications.
First, do check out this excellent episode of All Things Policy, where my colleague Amit Kumar talked to Dr Michael Pettis, Professor of Finance at Peking University and Senior Fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about the Chinese economy.
Second, do check out this edition of the China Trends publication by Institut Montaigne. This edition is titled “The Hot Peace between China and India”. It contains essays by François Godement, Mathieu Duchâtel, Jabin T. Jacob and myself, discussing the Chinese position and narratives on ties with India.
Cheers,
Manoj
Here are the key reports and articles that I found noteworthy from the People's Daily’s edition on Friday, April 12, 2024.
Page 1: It’s a slow news day on the front page today. The top story builds on the Xi-Ma meeting. Actually, it’s more about Xi Jinping’s comments than the meeting, per se.
It adds that Xi’s comments were “full of deep affection for Taiwan compatriots” and “injected stability and positive energy into the current complex and severe situation across the Taiwan Strait.” They also “pointed out the way forward for the development of cross-Strait relations, and serve as the fundamental guideline that must be adhered to and action guide for doing a good job in Taiwan-related work in the new era.” 两岸各界人士、专家学者纷纷表示，习近平总书记重要讲话着眼中华民族整体利益和长远发展，彰显了深厚的民族家国情怀，饱含着对台湾同胞的深情厚意，为当前复杂严峻的台海形势注入了稳定性和正能量，为发展两岸关系指明了前进方向，是做好新时代对台工作的根本遵循和行动指南，必将激励两岸同胞同心共创祖国统一、民族复兴的光明前景.
The article then basically covers people’s views on how people on both sides of the Strait “share the same blood”, “provided Taiwan compatriots with a true ‘Chinese history lesson’”, “declared the mainland's determination to advance against ‘independence’ and promote reunification”, mut “protect the shared homeland of the Chinese nation”, etc. It also talks about how Ma’s delegation visited companies like DJI, Tencent, and BYD and emphasizes the importance of economic linkages. Finally, the article talks about building a sense of community around the idea of the Chinese nation through exchanges.
The only other report that I found interesting was about automobile production and sales. The Q1 production and sales numbers were 6.606 million units and 6.72 million units, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 6.4% and 10.6%, respectively.
The production and sales of passenger vehicles in the first quarter reached 5.609 million and 5.687 million units respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 6.6% and 10.7% respectively
The production and sales of commercial vehicles reached 997,000 and 1.033 million units respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 5.1% and 10.1% respectively, with both buses and trucks seeing growth.
The production and sales of NEVs reached 2.115 million and 2.09 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 28.2% and 31.8%, respectively, with a market share of 31.1%. Domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.783 million units, a year-on-year increase of 33.3%.
Automobile exports reached 1.324 million units, a year-on-year increase of 33.2%. Passenger vehicle exports were 1.11 million units, a year-on-year increase of 34.3%; commercial vehicle exports were 214,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 27.5%. Traditional fuel vehicle exports were 1.017 million units, a year-on-year increase of 36.3%; NEVs exports reached 307,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 23.8%.
中国汽车工业协会近日发布数据显示：今年一季度，汽车产销分别完成660.6万辆和672万辆，同比分别增长6.4%和10.6%，新能源汽车延续快速增长势头，整车出口保持较高水平。乘用车和商用车产销均表现良好。伴随着春节后新车大量上市、车展等线下活动陆续开展、部分地区出台以旧换新等促销政策，一季度乘用车产销分别完成560.9万辆和568.7万辆，同比分别增长6.6%和10.7%；商用车产销分别完成99.7万辆和103.3万辆，同比分别增长5.1%和10.1%，其中，客车和货车产销均有增长。新能源汽车持续快速增长。一季度，新能源汽车产销分别完成211.5万辆和209万辆，同比分别增长28.2%和31.8%，市场占有率达31.1%。新能源汽车国内销量达178.3万辆，同比增长33.3%。整车出口保持较高水平。一季度，汽车出口132.4万辆，同比增长33.2%。其中，乘用车出口111万辆，同比增长34.3%；商用车出口21.4万辆，同比增长27.5%。传统燃料汽车出口101.7万辆，同比增长36.3%；新能源汽车出口30.7万辆，同比增长23.8%.
Page 2: There’s a report on Wang Yi’s comments at the The National Conference on Local Foreign Affairs. So this is a conference on paradiplomacy and Wang’s comments are essentially about the importance of strengthening central control and guidance over sub-national actors.
“Wang is reported to have said that since the 18th Party Congress, local foreign affairs work has functioned in tandem with major-country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics, supported high-level opening up to the outside world, and served local economic and social development. Fruitful results have been achieved and valuable experience has been accumulated. The most fundamental in this regard is to always adhere to the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era and effectively strengthen the centralized and unified leadership of the Party Central Committee. On the new journey, local foreign affairs work must deeply understand the decisive significance of "two establishments," resolutely uphold "two safeguards," strengthen overall coordination, leverage local advantages, take proactive actions, strictly observe discipline and rules, and create a new situation in local foreign affairs work with high-quality development, making new contributions to the construction of a strong country and the great rejuvenation of the nation.” 中共中央政治局委员、中央外事工作委员会办公室主任王毅出席会议并讲话，表示党的十八大以来地方外事工作配合中国特色大国外交、支持高水平对外开放、服务地方经济社会发展，取得了丰硕成果，也积累了宝贵经验。其中最根本的一条，就是始终坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导、切实加强党中央的集中统一领导新征程上，地方外事工作要深刻领悟“两个确立”的决定性意义，坚决做到“两个维护”，加强统筹协调，发挥地方优势，积极主动作为，严守纪律规矩，以高质量发展开创地方外事工作新局面，为强国建设、民族复兴伟业作出新贡献.
Next, there’s a report on Shi Taifeng’s visit to Tianjin. He visited Hebei District, Hongqiao District, Nankai District, Jinnan District, Dongli District, Binhai New Area, and Heping District. The key aspects of his inspection were:
To inspect the patriotic education bases and historical and cultural blocks to understand the inheritance and development of historical culture and the United Front work across new social classes
To visit characteristic commercial districts and private high-tech enterprises to investigate judicial services for private enterprises and the development of new quality productive forces.
To visit neighborhoods with ethnic food and religious activity venues to learn about the work of building a strong sense of the Chinese national community and promoting the sinicization of religions
To visit colleges and universities, communicate with non-party academicians, experts and minority students, and understand the nature of United Front work in colleges and universities.
石泰峰来到河北区、红桥区、南开区、津南区、东丽区、滨海新区、和平区，考察爱国主义教育基地和历史文化街区，了解历史文化传承发展、新的社会阶层人士统战工作情况；走进特色商圈和民营高科技企业，调研民营企业司法服务和发展新质生产力情况；走访民族美食特色街区和宗教活动场所，了解铸牢中华民族共同体意识和推进我国宗教中国化工作情况；深入高等院校，与党外院士专家和少数民族学生沟通交流，听取高校统战工作情况介绍.
What were his key messages?
“It is necessary to make good use of historical and cultural heritage resources, strengthen ideological and political guidance, and guide United Front members to deepen their understanding of China’s path, theory, and system from the perspective of the ‘two integrations’, and further enhance historical confidence and political consciousness, and unswervingly listen to and follow the Party.” 石泰峰表示，要用好历史文化遗产资源，加强思想政治引领，引导统战成员从“两个结合”上深化对中国道路、理论、制度的理解把握，进一步增强历史自信和政治自觉，坚定不移听党话、跟党走.
Adhere to the ‘two unwavering’ and promote the ‘two healths’. Guide private economic professionals to accurately grasp the scientific judgment of the Party Central Committee on the international and domestic situation, promote the optimization of the legal environment for private economic development, and encourage private enterprises to boost development confidence and consciously follow the path of high-quality development.”要坚持“两个毫不动摇”、促进“两个健康”，引导民营经济人士准确把握党中央关于国际国内形势的科学判断，推动优化民营经济发展法治环境，促进民营企业提振发展信心、自觉走高质量发展之路。(Comment: I read this as a fairly candid admission that despite all the efforts, the private sector doesn’t seem to be buying what the government is trying very hard to sell.)
It is necessary to implement the various tasks required to forge a strong consciousness of the Chinese national community and continue to promote the deepening and solidification of the Sinicization of religions in our country. Guide people of all ethnic groups, religious circles, and religious believers to firmly identify with the great motherland, the Chinese nation, Chinese culture, the Communist Party of China, and socialism with Chinese characteristics, and consolidate the good situation of ethnic unity and religious harmony. 要落实铸牢中华民族共同体意识主线要求各项任务，持续推进我国宗教中国化走深走实，引导各民族、宗教界人士和信教群众坚定对伟大祖国、中华民族、中华文化、中国共产党、中国特色社会主义的认同，巩固民族团结、宗教和顺的良好局面.
It is necessary to focus on implementing the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee and the spirit of the Two Sessions, stimulate the innovation and creativity of non-Party intellectuals and people from new social classes, and guide them to better play their role. 要围绕贯彻落实党中央决策部署和全国两会精神，激发党外知识分子和新的社会阶层人士创新创造活力，引导他们更好发挥优势作用。
The United Front plays an important role in safeguarding national security and social stability. United Front departments at all levels should establish bottom-line thinking, put the work of preventing and resolving risks and hidden dangers in a more prominent position, strengthen risk assessment, do a good job in risk prevention and control at important time periods, strive to resolve existing risks, prevent incremental risks, and firmly hold the bottom line of preventing regional systemic risks. 石泰峰表示，统一战线在维护国家安全和社会稳定方面具有重要作用。各级统战部门要树牢底线思维，把防范化解风险隐患工作摆在更加突出位置，加强风险研判，做好重要时间节点风险防控工作，努力化解存量风险、防范增量风险，牢牢守住不发生区域性系统性风险的底线.
Third, there’s a report on manpower changes.
Long Teng has been appointed vice minister of science and technology. He will no longer serve as president of the Beijing Institute of Technology.
Liu Zhongyi and Hu Binchen have been appointed assistant ministers of public security.
Yu Huiwen has been appointed vice minister of ecology and environment.
Mo Gaoyi has replaced Sun Yeli as director of the State Council Information Office.
Wu Zhaohui has been named vice president of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Wu will no longer serve as vice minister of science and technology.
Fourth, there’s a report informing that in Q1 of 2024, the newly-installed new energy capacity in the five southern provinces of Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Hainan was 12.54 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 72%. As of the end of the first quarter, the installed capacity of new energy in the five southern provinces reached 145 million kilowatts, accounting for about 32% of the total installed capacity, surpassing coal power for the first time and becoming the largest power source type.
Finally, there’s a report with data from the China Household Electrical Appliances Association. It says that:
For the January-February period, the cumulative main business income of China's household appliance industry reached 266.286 billion yuan, an increase of 12.8% year-on-year. The total profit was 15.71 billion yuan, an increase of 17.8% year-on-year.
For the same period, the production volume of most household appliance categories in China has increased, with air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines growing by 18.8%, 12.8%, and 18.5%, respectively.
As per a survey by the association of around 100 member companies, 20% of household appliance companies expect revenue growth of more than 10% in the first quarter of this year.
记者近日从中国家用电器协会获悉：今年1至2月份，我国家电行业累计主营业务收入达2662.86亿元，同比增长12.8%，利润总额达157.1亿元，同比增长17.8%，家电行业整体累计效益保持增长。1至2月份，我国多数家电品类生产量有所上涨，其中空调、冰箱、洗衣机增速分别为18.8%、12.8%、18.5%。产需活跃度回升的同时，市场预期趋于稳定。据中国家用电器协会对100余家会员企业调研显示，有20%的家电企业预期今年一季度营收增长10%以上.
Page 3: After quite a while, we have a Zhong Sheng commentary. And there is no surprise that it is about the China-US relationship. The article emphasizes that when it comes to the China-US relationship, “strategic perception” is like the “first button of a shirt that must be put right. It also restates Xi’s comments about the importance of adhering to peace as the most valued aspect, stability as the top priority and trust or credibility as the foundation.
The author writes that since the San Francisco meeting between Xi and Biden, “relations have stabilized.” The article adds that jointly promoting cultural exchanges is a key part of the San Francisco vision. Then it lists recent visits by American students, academics, business folk and strategic affairs experts to China. “The increased exchanges and exchanges between people from all walks of life in the two countries will help accumulate consensus for the stable, healthy and sustainable development of Sino-US relations.” 两国各界人士来往、交流增多，有助于为中美关系稳定、健康、可持续发展积累共识.
The article then goes back to Xi’s speech in San Francisco, where he stressed on the significance of people-to-people connections. It says “President Xi Jinping's speech revealed the foundation and future direction of the development of bilateral relations.” 习近平主席的演讲道出了两国关系发展的根基所在和未来方向.
The article then mentions visits by students from American high schools to China, saying that such exchanges build familiarity and friendship. They not only accumulate more rational and positive voices for the current development of bilateral relations but also lay a foundation for both sides to establish a correct understanding for the future. 两国人民相知相亲，既为当下双边关系发展积聚更多理性、积极的声音，也为双方面向未来树立正确认知打下基础.
The next paragraph deals with the visit of American CEOs during the CDF and then the meeting of some visiting Americans with Xi Jinping.
It says: “Statements from members of the American business community and the strategic affairs and academic community clearly indicate that China and the United States have broad common interests. The so-called ‘Thucydides Trap’ is not inevitable. Engaging in ‘decoupling and breaking the chain’ and creating risks in the name of ‘de-risking’ are not in the common interests of both parties.” 美国工商界和战略学术界人士的话清楚表明，中美有广泛的共同利益，所谓“修昔底德陷阱”并非必然，搞“脱钩断链”、以“去风险”为名制造风险，不符合双方共同利益.
Towards the end, the article comes back to the issue of strategic perception. It says:
“To stabilize and improve Sino-US relations, we must jointly establish a correct strategic perception. China has always believed that two major countries like China and the United States cannot avoid interaction and exchanges, far be it engage in conflict or confrontation. They should respect each other, coexist peacefully, and cooperate for win-win results. The United States should not insist on positioning China, which insists on peaceful development, as its main competitor and the most significant geopolitical challenge, insist on suppressing China's high-tech development, and deprive China of its legitimate right to development. Instead, it should meet China halfway and work together to explore the correct way for the two major countries to coexist, effectively manage differences, promote mutually beneficial cooperation, provide more support and convenience for people-to-people exchanges between the two countries, and jointly assume the responsibility of major countries for world peace and development.” 推动中美关系稳下来、好起来，必须共同树立正确战略认知。中方始终认为，中美这样两个大国，不能不来往、不打交道，更不能冲突对抗，应该相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢。美方不应执意将坚持和平发展的中国定位为最主要竞争对手、最重大地缘政治挑战等，执意打压中国的高科技发展，剥夺中国的正当发展权利，而应同中方相向而行，共同探讨中美两个大国的正确相处之道，共同有效管控分歧，共同推进互利合作，共同为两国人民交往提供更多支持和便利，共同为世界和平发展承担大国责任.
The article ends by saying “Sino-US relations cannot return to the past, but they can have a better future. China and the United States should comply with the common expectations of their populations and the people of the world, adhere to peace as the most valued principle, stability as the priority, and trust as the foundation; effectively implement the consensus reached by the two heads of state, and strengthen dialogue in a mutually respectful manner and manage differences with prudence; promote cooperation in the spirit of reciprocity, strengthen international coordination with a sense of responsibility, bring more benefits to the people of the two countries, and inject more stability into the world.” 中美关系回不到过去，但能够有一个更好的未来。中美双方应顺应两国人民和世界人民共同期待，坚持以和为贵、以稳为重、以信为本，切实落实两国元首共识，以相互尊重的方式加强对话，以慎重的态度管控分歧，以互惠的精神推进合作，以负责的担当加强国际协调，为两国人民带来更多福祉，为世界注入更多稳定性.
Amid all this positive rhetoric, do note that China has just sanctioned two American defense companies, saying that they support arms sales to Taiwan. AP reports:
“The announcement freezes the assets of General Atomics Aeronautical Systems and General Dynamics Land Systems held within China. It also bars the companies’ management from entering the country. Filings show General Dynamics operates a half-dozen Gulfstream and jet aviation services operations in China, which remains heavily reliant on foreign aerospace technology even as it attempts to build its own presence in the field. The company also helps make the Abrams tank being purchased by Taiwan to replace outdated armor intended to deter or resist an invasion from China. General Atomics produces the Predator and Reaper drones used by the U.S. military. Chinese authorities did not go into details on the company’s alleged involvement with supplying arms to Taiwan…Sanctions were leveled under Beijing’s recently enacted Law of the People’s Republic of China on Countering Foreign Sanctions, aimed at retaliating against U.S. financial and travel restrictions on Chinese officials accused of human rights abuses in mainland China and Hong Kong.”
The report also adds: “China had 14 warplanes and six navy ships operating around Taiwan on Wednesday and Thursday, with six of the aircraft crossing into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone.”
In addition, do check out MoFA’s comments following the Biden-Kishida summit.
“Despite China’s serious concerns, the US and Japan attacked and smeared China on the Taiwan question and maritime issues, grossly interfered in China’s domestic affairs and violated the basic norms in international relations. China deplores and opposes it, and has made serious démarches to relevant parties. US-Japan relations should not target other countries, harm their interests or undermine regional peace and stability. China firmly opposes the Cold War mentality and small group politics. China firmly rejects anything that creates and drives up tensions and may undermine other countries’ strategic security and interests.
I want to stress that there is but one China. This is a historical fact and international consensus. The Taiwan question is purely China’s domestic affair and brooks no external interference. Both the US and Japanese governments have made serious commitments to China on the Taiwan question. In particular, Japan bears serious historical responsibilities for its aggression against Taiwan and colonial rule over the island, and should all the more honor its words and act prudently. We urge the US to translate President Biden’s commitment of not supporting ‘Taiwan independence’ into concrete actions.
China’s activities in the East China Sea and South China Sea are in full compliance with international law and there’s nothing wrong about them. Diaoyu Dao and its affiliated islands are China’s inherent territory. We will take firm measures against illegal moves that violate China’s sovereignty. China has indisputable sovereignty over Nanhai Zhudao and its adjacent waters. China stands ready to continue properly handling maritime issues with parties concerned through dialogue and consultation and jointly upholding peace and stability in the South China Sea. In the meantime, no one should violate China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests, and China remains steadfast in safeguarding our lawful rights. The US and Japan have misrepresented the facts, violated China’s territorial sovereignty and breached international law and basic norms in international relations. They pose the real threat to regional peace and stability.”
Also yesterday, the US Department of Commerce added four Chinese companies to an export blacklist for buying US-origin goods to support China’s military modernization efforts. Bloomberg reports: the affected companies are LINKZOL (Beijing) Technology Co., Xi’an Like Innovative Information Technology Co., Beijing Anwise Technology Co. and SITONHOLY (Tianjin) Co.”
Anyway, back to Page 3. Two brief stories to note. First, the 45th Chinese naval escort taskforce is now at the port of Toamasina for a five-day goodwill visit to Madagascar.
Second, ILD Vice Minister Li Mingxiang is leading a delegation to Zambia. As per a local media report, Batuke Imenda, the Secretary General of the United Party for National Development (UPND) - the ruling party in Zambia, said that they want to “learn from the CCP due to its extensive experience and status as one of the largest political parties globally.” “Collins Maoma, the acting National Chairman of the UPND, also spoke at the meeting, expressing appreciation to China for its assistance in restructuring Zambia’s debt.”
Page 10: There’s a brief report (English report) informing that China’s Consumer Price Index went up by 0.1 percent year on year in March. On a monthly basis, the CPI went down 1 percent in March. The core CPI, deducting food and energy prices, went up 0.6 percent year on year.
Also, China's producer price index (PPI), which measures costs for goods at the factory gate, went down 2.8 percent year on year in March. On a monthly basis, the PPI edged down 0.1 percent, narrowing from a 0.2-percent decrease a month earlier. In the first quarter of 2024, the PPI went down 2.7 percent year on year.
Page 16: The page has a report discussing the new 2024 Kearney FDI Confidence Index. In terms of FDI confidence index rankings, China has risen from 7th last year to 3rd this year, and it retains the position as the top emerging market country.
Another report on the page quotes the WTO’s Global Trade Outlook & Statistics Report. It says that the volume of world merchandise trade should increase by 2.6% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025 after falling 1.2% in 2023.