Sparring at the Shangri-La Dialogue
Hi folks,
I was working on our weekly Eye on China newsletter and put together this section on the different engagements at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. Since many of you are not subscribed to the weekly newsletter, I thought i’ll share it here too.
Hope you find it useful.
Cheers,
Manoj
After two years, the annual Shangri-La Dialogue Forum is being held in Singapore from June 10 to 12th. I thought I’d recap some of the developments from the event so far. Let us begin with the first meeting between China’s Defense Minister Wei Fenghe and US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. Reports inform that the meeting ran for 30 minutes longer than scheduled.
Xinhua’s report on the meeting says that the two sides agreed to “enhance strategic mutual trust and properly manage differences between the militaries of the two countries.” The report adds that Wei said that the US:
“should view China’s development and growth in a rational way, and refrain from attacking, smearing, containing and suppressing China. It must neither interfere in China’s internal affairs nor harm China’s interests, Wei said, noting that only in this way can the relations between China and the United States proceed toward positive outcomes. Stable relations between the two militaries are crucial for the development of relations between the two countries, he said, adding that the two militaries should avoid conflict and confrontation. Wei stressed that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China, and the one-China principle is the political foundation of China-U.S. relationship. The scheme to use Taiwan to contain China is doomed to fail, he said. China firmly opposes and strongly condemns a recent announcement by the United States on arms sales to Taiwan, which seriously undermines China’s sovereignty and security interests, Wei said, warning that the Chinese government and military will resolutely foil any attempt for ‘Taiwan independence’ and safeguard national unification.”
The Chinese defense ministry’s spokesperson Wu Qian quoted Wei as telling his American counterpart that “If anyone dares to split Taiwan from China, the Chinese army will definitely not hesitate to start a war no matter the cost.”
The US DoD’s readout of the meeting says that the Secretary underscored the “need to responsibly manage competition and maintain open lines of communication…the importance of the People’s Liberation Army engaging in substantive dialogue on improving crisis communications and reducing strategic risk.” He also “reaffirmed the importance of peace and stability across the Strait, opposition to unilateral changes to the status quo, and called on the PRC to refrain from further destabilizing actions toward Taiwan.”
SCMP’s report on the meeting informs that the conversation around Taiwan took up bulk of the time in the meeting. The report adds: “The US official said the two defence chiefs also discussed Ukraine, with Austin saying Chinese material support to Russia for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine would be “deeply destabilising”. Wu said China had not provided military aid to Russia.
Now, let’s look at the speeches by both men. Austin spoke on June 11th and Wei spoke today.
Austin outlined a vision for the Indo-Pacific region, emphasising transparency, openness and accountability, along with a commitment to freedom of the seas, skies, and space and an insistence that disputes be resolved peacefully.
“We seek a region free of aggression and bullying. And we seek a world that respects territorial integrity and political independence, a world that expands human rights and human dignity, and a world in which all countries—large and small—are free to thrive and to lawfully pursue their interests, free from coercion and intimidation. Now, we know the riptides that we face—from COVID to cyber threats to nuclear proliferation. And we feel the headwinds—from threats, and intimidation, and the obsolete belief in a world carved up into spheres of influence. Now, we are confident that we can steer forward. But we can only do it together.
He argued that the Indo-Pacific is “at the heart of American grand strategy…And today, American statecraft is rooted in this reality: No region will do more to set the trajectory of the 21st century than this one. The Indo-Pacific is our center of strategic gravity. That’s central to the Biden Administration’s forthcoming National Security Strategy and to my Department’s National Defense Strategy. And it’s why the first regional strategy that the Biden Administration released was our Indo-Pacific Strategy.”
It’s interesting that Austin mentioned India among the countries that have provided humanitarian aid to Ukraine and said that the US believes that India’s “growing military capability and technological prowess can be a stabilizing force in the region.” He later added that the US is working with “partners and allies to ensure that they have the right capabilities to defend their interests, to deter aggression, and to thrive on their own terms.” And then he said that “We’ll also continue to stand by our friends as they uphold their rights. That’s especially important as the PRC adopts a more coercive and aggressive approach to its territorial claims.” Specifically, Austin mentioned the “alarming increase in the number of unsafe aerial intercepts and confrontations at sea by PLA aircraft and vessels.” This comes in the context of the recent tensions between Australia and China.
On Taiwan, Austin categorically stated: “We do not support Taiwan independence.” But he added, “we categorically oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side.” And, “as part of our one-China policy, we’ll continue to fulfill our commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act. That includes assisting Taiwan in maintaining a sufficient self-defense capability. And it means maintaining our own capacity to resist any use of force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security or the social or economic system of the people of Taiwan. So our policy hasn’t changed. But unfortunately, that doesn’t seem to be true for the PRC.”
Austin was also categorical in saying: “We do not seek confrontation or conflict. And we do not seek a new Cold War, an Asian NATO, or a region split into hostile blocs.”
If remarks from the Chinese delegation and Wei are anything to go by, Beijing isn’t convinced that Washington’s words are matching its actions. For instance, Global Times reports that:
Zhang Zhenzhong, deputy chief of the Joint Staff Department in the Central Military Commission, told reporters on Saturday at the 19th Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, that the Indo-Pacific Strategy is designed to trap the Asia-Pacific region into a geopolitical game and confrontation as it tries to form a small circle by roping in some countries to incite against others. It seriously impacts the ASEAN-centered regional cooperation architecture and seriously harms the overall and long-term interests of countries in the region, he added. “The US has already turned the Middle East and Europe into a mess, does it want to mess up Asia-Pacific next?” Zhang asked, adding that this is absolutely not allowed.
I don’t have the full text of Wei’s speech, but you can watch the engagement below.
Anyway, SCMP’s report on the speech informs that on Taiwan, he said: “We will fight at all costs, and we will fight to the very end…This is the only choice for China.” The report adds:
“To us, the strategy (Indo-Pacific strategy) is an attempt to build an exclusive small group in the name of a free and open Indo-Pacific to hijack countries in our region and target one specific country,” Wei said. “It is a strategy to create conflict and confrontation, to contain and encircle others.” “We must say no to exclusive blocs, confrontation, containment, decoupling and supply disruption,” he said. “Building a high wall around one’s turf and forming parallel systems can only split the world and undermine the shared interests of all countries.” Beijing has said efforts led by the US to unite nations under regional security groupings – such as Aukus and the Quad – aimed to contain China and reflected a “cold-war mentality”. Wei rebutted the US’ position that Beijing, with its extensive territorial claims in the South China Sea, had impeded the freedom of navigation in international waters. “The freedom of navigation in the South China Sea has never been a problem,” he said. Wei also said the Chinese economy itself would suffer without the freedom. Countries in the region, including ASEAN members, should jointly develop and maintain peace in the South China Sea, he said, accusing those outside the region of “meddling” and “stirring up trouble”.
Also, on Ukraine, Wei said that China has not supplied any arms or materials to Russia since the war on Ukraine began. Wei added that the China-Russia relationship was a “partnership not alliance.” He also said: “What is the root cause of this crisis? Who is the mastermind behind this? Who loses the most? And who stands to gain the most? Who is promoting peace and who is adding fuel to the fire? I think we all know the answers to these questions.”
Some other interesting speeches from the sessions:
Here’s how he views the state of the world.
“With the very foundations of the international order being shaken by Russia's aggression against Ukraine, the international community now stands at a historic crossroads. The last time the world faced such a major turning point was some 30 years ago. That was around the time that the Cold War -- a period when the world was divided into two camps and people were afraid that the two sides' cold antagonism might heat up again -- came to an end, and the ‘post-Cold War’ era began.”
He added that “No country or region in the world can shrug this (the invasion of Ukraine) off as ‘someone else’s problem’. It is a situation that shakes the very foundations of the international order.” He then went on to reference the South China Sea, East China Sea, Taiwan Strait and the Korean Peninsula in this context. He added that Japan “will be more proactive than ever in tackling the challenges and crises that face Japan, Asia, and the world.” He the put forward the the “Kishida Vision for Peace” saying that Japan will boost its diplomatic and security role in the region. The five pillars of this vision is:
maintaining and strengthening the rules-based free and open international order
enhancing security
promoting realistic efforts to bring about a world without nuclear weapons
strengthening the functions of the United Nations, including UN Security Council reform
strengthening international cooperation in new policy areas such as economic security
On the security front, this chunk is worth noting:
I myself have a strong sense of urgency that ‘Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow.’ Japan has also made the decision to shift its policy towards Russia and is united with the international community in efforts to impose strong sanctions against Russia and support Ukraine…we must be prepared for the emergence of an entity that tramples on the peace and security of other countries by force or threat without honoring the rules. As a means of preventing such situations and protecting ourselves, we need to enhance our deterrence and response capabilities. This will be absolutely essential if Japan is to learn to survive in the new era and keep speaking out as a standard-bearer of peace. As the security environment surrounding Japan becomes increasingly severe, we will set out a new National Security Strategy by the end of this year. I am determined to fundamentally reinforce Japan's defense capabilities within the next five years and secure substantial increase of Japan's defense budget needed to effect it. In doing so, we will not rule out any options, including so-called ‘counterstrike capabilities’, and will realistically consider what is necessary to protect the lives and livelihoods of our people.”
The entire speech is worth reading. He talks a lot about the need for China to behave with responsibility and transparency.
“Australia values a productive relationship with China. China is not going anywhere. And we all need to live together and, hopefully, prosper together. China remains our largest trading partner. China’s economic success is connected to that of our region. Australia’s approach will be anchored in a resolve to safeguard our national interest and our support for regional security and stability based on rules. We will be steady and consistent, looking for avenues of cooperation where they exist while recognising China’s growing power and the manner in which that is reshaping our region. Australia’s strategic circumstances are as complex as they have been since the end of the Second World War. We want to see a region at peace, not in conflict. A region where the sovereignty of all nations – large or small – is preserved. And where the rule of law, not the rule of power, governs conduct between states. Much has been said about the need for the United States to respond to China’s rise in a way that responsibly manages strategic competition, but also allows the regional order to adapt. But that imposes responsibility on China too…Of course it’s reasonable to expect a more powerful China will have a bigger say in regional and international affairs. What is important is that the exercise of Chinese power exhibits the characteristics necessary for our shared prosperity and security. Respect for agreed rules and norms. Where trade and investment flow based on agreed rules and binding treaty commitments. And where disputes among states are resolved via dialogue, and in accordance with international law.”
On China’s policy regarding the Ukraine war, he said that it is “reasonable to expect China make clear it does not support the invasion of a sovereign country in violation of the UN Charter, and China’s own longstanding commitment to the Charter’s founding principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity. That China has not done so should give us cause for concern, especially given the investments it is making in military power.”
Also, Marles said this: “As we move forward with AUKUS, Australia will ensure that we do so in a way that strengthens the global nuclear non-proliferation regime – a regime that few countries have done as much as Australia to support. AUKUS, of course, does not limit our ambition to do more with other partners, especially Japan and India. I look forward to visiting India soon to take forward the defence pillar of our Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.”
I think this was particularly interesting given how Chinese media and officials have been pushing the NATO-and-the-US-are-to-blame-for-the-war narrative. Wei himself called the US the “mastermind” in his speech. Anyway, Zelenskyy said:
“Russian propaganda is trying hard to spread in your countries, as in many others, the disinformation thesis that Russia’s war against Ukraine is allegedly something about NATO, about the role of America, about the West’s attempts to advance somewhere in Europe. But Russia’s war against Ukraine is far from just about Europe. It’s about globally important things. The Russian leadership wants to reject all the achievements of human history, including the system of international law that we have today, and return to life as in the XIX century or even earlier. When everything that gave billions of people a chance for harmonious development and prosperity was impossible. That is why I want to remind you of the words of a man you all know well: ‘If there was no international law and a big fish ate a small one and a small one ate a shrimp, we would not exist.’ These are the very wise words of Lee Kuan Yew, a leader who could see the real causes of many things and processes and who knew what should really be appreciated.”
Apart from all this, two Taiwan-specific reports to note. First, Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman Ma Xiaoguang lashed out at Taiwan’s opposition KMT’s leader Eric Chu for calling the 1992 Consensus a “non-consensus consensus.” Chu’s made the comments during a visit to the US. There Chu positioned the KMT as a pro-US party and his comment on th 1992 Consensus came at an engagement at Brookings. What he basically says is that the consensus is that either side is free to have political interpretations while they progress on “non-political issues” such as trade, finance, education, etc. He said that the consensus was like America’s one-China policy. And in that vein, he added that the 1992 Consensus was still the “foundation” and “key” for engagement with Beijing.
Also, Wang Yang met with leaders and representatives of more than 20 political parties and organisations this week. He said that “the reunification of the motherland is a historical trend and an inevitable requirement for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” But he added “we have both the strategic resolve for peaceful reunification and the firm will to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”