The China Challenge Survey - Xi's Article on Reform, Self-Confidence & Self-Reliance - H1 Economic Data
Hi folks,
Today’s paper is not very news heavy. This is not a surprise, since the leadership is busy with the plenum. Therefore, there are just two things that I am covering from the paper today.
But before we get to that, let me share with you our latest initiative The China Challenge Survey.
The Survey is prepared by the Takshashila Institution, an independent centre for research and education in public policy. This is the first iteration of an intended periodic Survey to assess public opinion on India-China relations. Filling out the Survey should not take more than 5 minutes of your time.
Please note that any and all information provided through the Survey will be completely confidential. Please also note that by submitting your responses, you are authorising Takshashila Institution to use the information provided for research, analyses and/ or educational purposes.
Cheers,
Manoj
Two articles to note today. First, there’s a report on Xi Jinping’s latest piece in Qiushi. The article is an excerpt of important statements made by General Secretary Xi Jinping from January 2013 to March 2024.
As per PD, the article emphasises that “the Chinese people and the Chinese nation have moved from deep suffering since modern times towards the bright prospects of great rejuvenation, and there has never been a textbook, let alone ready-made answers, for this journey. The path to success in the Party’s century-old struggle was opened up through the independent exploration under the leadership of the Party and the Chinese people. The Chinese chapter of Marxism was developed by Chinese Communists relying on their own efforts. A fundamental point running through it is that China’s issues must be addressed based on China’s basic national conditions and answered by the Chinese people themselves. We must adhere to a firm belief in Marxism, a firm faith in socialism with Chinese characteristics, and strengthen our confidence in our path, theory, system, and culture. We should contribute to the development of Marxism with a more active sense of historical responsibility and creativity, neither clinging to the past rigidly nor blindly copying foreign models.” 文章强调，中国人民和中华民族从近代以后的深重苦难走向伟大复兴的光明前景，从来就没有教科书，更没有现成答案。党的百年奋斗成功道路是党领导人民独立自主探索开辟出来的，马克思主义的中国篇章是中国共产党人依靠自身力量实践出来的，贯穿其中的一个基本点就是中国的问题必须从中国基本国情出发，由中国人自己来解答。我们要坚持对马克思主义的坚定信仰、对中国特色社会主义的坚定信念，坚定道路自信、理论自信、制度自信、文化自信，以更加积极的历史担当和创造精神为发展马克思主义作出新的贡献，既不能刻舟求剑、封闭僵化，也不能照抄照搬、食洋不化.
The article points out that self-confidence can lead to self-reliance. “To advance Chinese-style modernization, we must adhere to independence, self-reliance, and self-improvement, and insist on putting the development of the country and the nation on the basis of our own strength, and insist on firmly grasping the destiny of China’s development and progress in our own hands.” 推进中国式现代化，必须坚持独立自主、自立自强，坚持把国家和民族发展放在自己力量的基点上，坚持把我国发展进步的命运牢牢掌握在自己手中.
“The article points out that without firm confidence in the system, it would be impossible to have the courage to comprehensively deepen reform. Similarly, without continuous reform, confidence in the system cannot be thorough or long-lasting. We comprehensively deepen reform in order to make the socialist system with Chinese characteristics; when we speak of firm confidence in our system, it does not mean to stand still/accept the status quo. Rather, it is about continuously eliminating flaws in the institutional mechanisms, allowing our system to mature and endure. With the continuous development of socialism with Chinese characteristics, our system will become increasingly more mature, the advantages of our socialist system will be further revealed, our road will become increasingly broader, and the impact of our development path on the world will become greater.” 文章指出，没有坚定的制度自信就不可能有全面深化改革的勇气，同样，离开不断改革，制度自信也不可能彻底、不可能久远。我们全面深化改革，是要使中国特色社会主义制度更好；我们说坚定制度自信，不是要固步自封，而是要不断革除体制机制弊端，让我们的制度成熟而持久。随着中国特色社会主义不断发展，我们的制度必将越来越成熟，我国社会主义制度的优越性必将进一步显现，我们的道路必将越走越宽广，我国发展道路对世界的影响必将越来越大.
Next, there’s a report on the H1 economic data (English bulletin by NBS). Key points:
H1 GDP growth was 5%. By quarter, the GDP for the first quarter increased by 5.3 percent year on year and for the second quarter 4.7 percent. The GDP for the second quarter increased by 0.7 percent quarter on quarter.
The total value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 6.0% year-on-year. In terms of sectors, mining value-added grew by 2.4%, manufacturing increased by 6.5%, production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water increased by 6.0%, equipment manufacturing increased by 7.8%, high-tech manufacturing was up by 8.7%.
In terms of products, the production of 3D printing devices, new-energy automobiles, and integrated circuits went up by 51.6%, 34.3%, and 28.9%, year on year respectively.
June’s Manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, the same as that of the previous month. Production and Operation Expectation Index was 54.4%.
The value added of services went up by 4.6% year on year.
The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 23.59 trillion yuan, up by 3.7% year on year.
Fixed-assets investment was 24.54 trillion yuan, up by 3.9% year on year. investment in fixed assets was up by 8.5% with the investment in real estate development deducted. Investment in infrastructure grew by 5.4%; that in manufacturing grew by 9.5%; and that in real estate development dropped by 10.1%. The floor space of newly-built commercial buildings sold was 479.16 million square meters, down by 19.0%; and the total sales of newly-built commercial buildings were 4,713.3 billion yuan, down by 25.0%. Private investment increased by 0.1%, or by 6.6% with the investment in real estate development deducted.
The investment in high-tech industries grew by 10.6% year on year, of which the investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services grew by 10.1% and 11.7% respectively. In terms of high-tech manufacturing, the investment in manufacturing of aerospace vehicles and equipment and in manufacturing of computers and office devices grew by 38.3% and 12.1% respectively.
The total value of import and export of goods was 21.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%.
In H1, CPI rose by 0.1% year on year.
Urban surveyed unemployment rate averaged 5.1%.
Nationwide per capita disposable income of households was 20,733 yuan, a nominal growth of 5.4% year on year; the real growth was 5.3% after deducting price factors,
Finally, there’s an article that reviews reform work over the past 10 years. It does so by discussing the 72 meetings of what was once the Central Leading Group for Comprehensively Deepening Reform and which eventually became Central Commission for Comprehensively Deepening Reform, with Xi as the Director.