Two Sessions Conclude - Podcast with Lisa Singh on Australia's Ties with US, China & India - My view on India-China 'Cooperative Pas de Deux'
Page 1: The Two Sessions came to a formal close on Tuesday. That’s the top story in the paper today.
Li Hongzhong, executive chairperson of the presidium, presided over the meeting. Zhao Leji reportedly skipped the session due to a “respiratory infection.” Reuters has a detailed report on this.
In terms of tangible actions:
The meeting adopted a decision to amend the Law on Deputies to the National People’s Congress and to the Local People’s Congresses at Various Levels.
Lawmakers approved the report on the implementation of the 2024 plan for national economic and social development and the 2025 draft plan, and approved the 2025 plan.
They approved a report on the execution of the central and local budgets for 2024 and the draft central and local budgets for 2025, and approved the central budget for 2025.
They also approved the work reports of the NPC Standing Committee, the Supreme People’s Court and the Supreme People's Procuratorate.
In his speech, Li said that:
This year is the concluding year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the tasks of reform, development, and stability are arduous. Under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, we must adhere to the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, fully implement the spirit of the 20th Party Congress and the Second and Third Plenary Sessions of the 20th Central Committee, adhere to the general tone of work of seeking progress while maintaining stability, conscientiously implement the deployment requirements of this conference, strengthen confidence, work hard, do a good job in all aspects, and complete the goals and tasks of the 14th Five-Year Plan with high quality, so as to lay a solid foundation for a good start of the 15th Five-Year Plan. We must adhere to the people-centered development philosophy, respect the people’s pioneering spirit, practice whole-process people’s democracy, gather the wisdom and strength of the broad masses, uphold the principle of everything for the people and everything relying on the people, and constantly meet the people’s yearning for a better life. We must anchor ourselves to the grand blueprint of building a strong nation and national rejuvenation, unswervingly follow the path of socialism with Chinese characteristics, concentrate on managing our own affairs well, and step by step turn our established action programs, strategic decisions, and work deployments into reality. Let us unite more closely around the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, be of one mind and one heart, seek truth from facts, forge ahead, and work unremittingly to comprehensively promote the building of a strong country and the great cause of national rejuvenation through Chinese-style modernization. 今年是“十四五”规划收官之年，改革发展稳定任务繁重。我们要在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，全面贯彻落实党的二十大和二十届二中、三中全会精神，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，认真落实本次大会部署要求，坚定信心，真抓实干，扎扎实实做好各项工作，高质量完成“十四五”规划目标任务，为实现“十五五”良好开局打牢基础。我们要坚持以人民为中心的发展思想，尊重人民首创精神，践行全过程人民民主，凝聚广大人民群众智慧和力量，坚持一切为了人民、一切依靠人民，不断满足人民对美好生活的向往。我们要锚定强国建设、民族复兴宏伟蓝图，坚定不移走中国特色社会主义道路，聚精会神办好自己的事，一步一个脚印把既定的行动纲领、战略决策、工作部署变为现实。让我们更加紧密地团结在以习近平同志为核心的党中央周围，同心同德，求真务实，开拓进取，为以中国式现代化全面推进强国建设、民族复兴伟业而不懈奋斗.
At the top of the page, there’s an editorial around the Two Sessions. Among other things, it says that:
Looking at the future, time, momentum, and righteousness are all on our side. By strengthening our faith and confidence, maintaining strategic determination, and concentrating our efforts on managing our own affairs well, we will surely be able to climb slopes, overcome obstacles, and stride across ravines. The People’s Congress system has demonstrated tremendous political advantages and organizational effectiveness in the course of promoting national development, people’s well-being, and national rejuvenation. Further strengthening institutional confidence, upholding, improving and operating the People’s Congress system well, can provide a solid institutional guarantee for achieving the goals of the Party and the people in the new era and on the new journey. 面向未来，时、势、义都在我们这一边。坚定信念信心，保持战略定力，集中精力办好自己的事情，就一定能爬坡过坎、越沟迈壑。人民代表大会制度在推动国家发展、人民幸福、民族复兴的历程中，展现出巨大的政治优势和组织功效。进一步坚定制度自信，把人民代表大会制度坚持好、完善好、运行好，就能为实现新时代新征程党和人民的奋斗目标提供坚实制度保障.
It also ends with a call to unite more closely behind Xi.
All the key outcomes/resolutions from the Two Sessions are published on the second page. I have put some of the key economic policy developments in two tables below. Hope this is useful.
That’s all for the paper today. But I have two more things to share.
First, I had the privilege of hosting Lisa Singh, the CEO of the Australia India Institute at the University of Melbourne, for a chat on Takshashila’s All Things Policy podcast. Our conversation covers:
How Australia is adapting to changes brought about by the Donald Trump administration
Australia’s approach to China & concerns around recent Chinese military activities
The future of India-Australia ties
Second, I am sharing below the text of my latest piece for the Indian Express, where I contextualise recent developments between India and China, particularly in the wake of Wang Yi’s remarks about the relationship.
Can India trust China when it says both nations should dance together?
It’s been five months since the Kazan deal between India and China. Dialogue between the two sides has since accelerated, and the language has softened. In his press conference at the sidelines of the annual session of China’s legislature, the National People’s Congress, Foreign Minister Wang Yi talked about the need for a “cooperative pas de deux of the dragon and the elephant.” Meanwhile, in his recent interaction at Chatham House, Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar talked about the “very unique” relationship that the two countries share.
That said, substantive normalisation hasn’t made much headway since October 2024. Jaishankar acknowledged as much at Chatham House, saying that India and China are discussing some steps to ensure that the relationship moves in a “more predictable, stable and positive direction.” Specifically, he added: “the resumption of pilgrimage to Mount Kailash, the direct flights between the two countries, the journalists’ issues—all these are being discussed, but there are some other issues; for example, we had a mechanism about trans-border rivers…we are looking at this package...it’s hard. You know, obviously, we would like to see it done sooner rather than later. And then we will see what happens after that.”
It is quite telling that five months since the deal on disengagement, both sides are still working to pluck what are essentially low-hanging fruits. Two fundamental factors lie at the heart of the vexed nature of the India-China relationship.
First, there is clearly a difference in how both sides view the nature of the standoff in Eastern Ladakh and the broader boundary issue. Indian Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi’s remarks in mid-January are worth recalling. Discussing the situation in Eastern Ladakh, he said that the two sides were still dealing with a “degree of standoff”, given the changes in terrain, stocking and deployment. It was a timely reminder that the fundamental nature of the challenge along the Line of Actual Control has changed since April 2020. Moreover, the old status quo is unlikely to be restored. For India, peace and tranquility at the border remains a prerequisite for building a stable relationship. Jaishankar too was categorical about this at Chatham House. Dwivedi’s recent comment about a “two-front war threat” being a “reality” further underscores the gravity of the developments on the border with regard to China.
Beijing, meanwhile, has talked about its intent to work with India to “jointly preserve the peace and tranquillity in the border areas”. However, its officials have also said that “we should never allow bilateral relations to be defined by the boundary question, or let specific differences affect the overall picture of our bilateral ties.” Such compartmentalization is inimical to ensuring stability and predictability in the relationship. It’s quite remarkable that this is precisely the argument that Chinese officials have been making to their American counterparts over the past few years. Even in his press conference last week, Wang Yi lashed out at the US for engaging in “two-faced acts.” So, one would assume that it should not take much reflection for Beijing to grasp New Delhi’s perspective. Just like China seeks a new balance with the US, there is also a need for a new balance between the India-China relationship too.
This is the second factor that makes deals on evidently straight-forward issues difficult. During his interaction at Chatham House, Jaishankar outlined the challenge between India and China as one two neighbours rising in parallel, resulting in the shifting of the balance between them. In such a situation, the issue is “how do you create stable equilibriums and then transition to the next set of equilibriums,” he said. The EAM added: “we want a stable relationship, but we want a relationship where our interests are respected, our sensitivities are recognised; where it works for both of us. That has really been the challenge in the relationship.”
From the Chinese perspective, Wang Yi has said that India and China must “support each other rather than undercut each other, work with each other rather than guard against each other.” They must also “be partners that contribute to each other’s success”. Yet, these words have not been accompanied by necessary actions. For instance, reports have indicated that while India has been more open to Chinese investments, Beijing has cautioned its companies from investing in India. It has also actively blocked the transfer of equipment, machinery and technical personnel to India. These actions are essentially a product of Chinese anxieties around export of production capacity along with a desire to retard the expansion of electronics, automobile and solar energy sectors in India. This underscores that China continues to view India from the prism of competition. Unless this approach shifts fundamentally, the sweet nothings about the dance of the elephant and dragon are meaningless.
Great analysis on India-China diplomacy. India would need to be desperate to accept any promises from China. The US failed spectacularly in bringing China into the global trade system. China has broken every promise, every treaty and every basic norm to such an extent as to make their words meaningless. The country pumps drugs and drug precursor chemicals all over the world, from methamphetamines in Southeast Asia to opioids in Latin America, and many other places.
What concerns me most is the occupation of Bhutanese territory. China has plenty of internal maps that show "Chinese territory" including not only Taiwan, but Mongolia, Nepal, Bhutan and substantial parts of Western India. They already have forces at the ready to "stabilize" North Korea, Burma, and lord knows where else. It is not hard to discern that the PRC will move to annex Laos, Cambodia, Burma, and any other neighbor they can get away with invading.
China and Russia are the only two countries that actively seek to extend their borders. Both countries are run by brutal thuggish dictators who seek to reset global norms back to the age of Empires, only now they get to play imperialist. If the democratic world had any spine, we would be isolating and containing both countries with determination. We should also have more open immigration policies with the intent of taking in all the intellectual elite who want to live in free countries.
I am curious why India still wastes time with Russia. I know India has no choice but to deal with the mini-Helmsman Xi, but why does India keep showering Putin with money for weapons that never arrive? I could never understand India's diplomatic choices related to Russia. If I were the Emperor of India for a day..., I would make an Asian NATO for mutual defense and the patrol of the high seas. The US keep pulling back, and eventually the US navy might no loner waste time and money doing such tasks, and it is obvious the PRC will begin its conquests when that happens, at the latest. What is India's plan then? The US is going to pull back at some point. I feel like that is not understood in many parts of the world (Europe, for example).