Xi Meets Duterte - H1 Economic Data - Food Security Data - Take 'Comprehensive, Dialectical & Long-term View' on Economy - Forging Consciousness of Chinese Nation is 'Main Line' of UFWD Work
Here are the key reports and articles that I found noteworthy from the People’s Daily's edition on Tuesday, July 18, 2023.
Page 1: Let’s begin with the report on Xi Jinping’s meeting with former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte. Xinhua reports:
“Xi said that while being President of the Philippines, Duterte resolutely made the strategic choice of improving relations with China, with an attitude of being responsible to the people and history. China-Philippines relations were able to return to the right track and prosper, a demonstration of the important contributions Duterte made to friendly exchanges between the two countries. Noting that China and the Philippines are both developing countries in Asia, Xi said the development of the two countries is rooted in the good-neighborly and friendly peripheral environment and the Asian family of win-win cooperation. China upholds the policy of neighborhood diplomacy featuring amity, sincerity, mutual benefit and inclusiveness, and has always been committed to forging friendship and partnership with its neighbors, said Xi. China always attaches importance to China-Philippines relations and is willing to work with the Philippines to promote the steady and long-term development of their relations, Xi said. He also expressed the hope that Duterte will continue to play an important role in the friendly cooperation between the two countries.
Thanking China for its valuable support to the Philippines' economic and social development, Duterte said that developing friendly relations between the two countries serves the interests of the two peoples and conforms to the aspiration of the majority of the Philippine people. He promised to continue contributing to promoting bilateral friendship.”
Also, there’s a report on two new ambassador appointments:
Wu Wei was appointed ambassador to Micronesia, replacing Huang Zheng
Yu Jun was appointed ambassador to Uzbekistan, replacing Jiang Yan
Next, there’s a report on H1 economic data; also, there’s a report on NBS’ Fu Linghui’s presser. The key data points are:
GDP grew 5.5% year on year to 59.3 trillion yuan ($8.3 trillion). Second quarter GDP growth was 6.3%. CNBC reports that analysts polled by Reuters had predicted a 7.3% increase in the second quarter GDP. NBS’ Fu Linghui said that “the 5.5% GDP growth is a relatively fast speed in global sphere. In the first quarter, the US, Eurozone, Japan and Brazil reported GDP expansion of 1.8%, 1%, 1.9%, and 4%. That means even taking account into the second-quarter reading, China’s first-half GDP growth still leads major global economies.”
Value-added industrial output went up 3.8% for H1; value-added service output went up 6.4 percent year on year in H1.
Retail sales of consumer goods went up 8.2% year on year in H1 to around 22.76 trillion yuan. In June, retail sales were up 3.1% year on year. New energy passenger vehicles sales exceeded 3 million, a year-on-year increase of 37.3%; retail sales of low-energy household appliances and audio-visual equipment for units above the designated size increased by more than 20% year-on-year. Per capita cultural and entertainment expenditure of the national residents increased by 38.5% year-on-year in nominal terms; the national movie box office increased by 52.9% year-on-year, and the number of moviegoers increased by 51.8%. Final consumption expenditure growth to economic growth reached 77.2%.
Fixed-asset investment went up 3.8% year on year in H1 to 24.31 trillion yuan. This, CNBC reports, was better than the 3.5% predicted. In H1, infrastructure investment increased by 7.2% year-on-year, of which investment in railway transportation and water conservancy management increased by 20.5% and 9.6% respectively. Manufacturing investment increased by 6% year-on-year, of which investment in equipment manufacturing increased by 14.4%. Year-on-year investment in the automobile manufacturing industry and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 20% and 38.9%, respectively. Investment in high-tech industries increased by 12.5% year-on-year, which was significantly faster than the total investment growth. Investments in professional technical services and technology transfer services also increased by 51.6% and 46.3% respectively year on year. Investment in electronic and communication equipment manufacturing and e-commerce services increased by 14.2% and 22.2% respectively.
Per capita disposable income stood at 19,672 yuan in H1, up 6.5% year on year in nominal terms
Surveyed urban unemployment rate stood at 5.3% in H1; but the unemployment rate of 16 to 24 year olds in urban areas rose to 21.3% in June
HI residential property sales by value rose 3.7% year on year, slowing from an 11.9% increase in January to May. Property investment fell 7.9% in the first half, compared with a 7.2% decline in the first five months. New construction starts dropped 24.3% in the first six months, compared with a 22.6% fall in January to May.
China’s IC output was up 5.7% in June compared with last year but remained down in the first six months of 2023, SCMP reported. Production of ICs in June totalled 32.2 billion units. In contrast, June 2022 had reportedly seen chip output fall by over 10% to 28.8 billion units. Despite a strong month, the data showed that the output of ICs for the first half of the year was still down 3% from the same period last year, totalling 161.7 billion units. The June increase and half-year decrease of IC output appears to contradict a report from NBS in May that showed that IC output had increased 0.1 per cent in the first five months of 2023.
In H1, the added value of aerospace and equipment manufacturing and lithium-ion battery manufacturing above designated size increased by 22.9% and 29.7%, respectively. The added value of information transmission, software and information technology services increased by 12.9%.
In H1, energy consumption per unit of GDP fell by 0.4% year-on-year
Bloomberg did an excellent live-blog on the numbers yesterday. I am sharing two snippets below. But you can check out the blog. It’s really useful.
Along with this, there’s a long report on the page covering the China Economic Roundtable that Xinhua hosted. The English website has also covered this. This is not really analysis; rather it is about infusing positivity and confidence. Key points are:
“‘Facing sluggish global economic growth and a slowdown in global trade, China's economic growth in H1 saw an increased contribution of domestic demand to the GDP compared with the same period last year and the entire 2022,’ said Li Hui, a senior official with the National Development and Reform Commission. She noted that the growth rate of industrial added value of the equipment manufacturing industry, above the designated size, had exceeded the overall industrial growth rate. The production of solar cells, new energy vehicles, and charging piles also surged. Investment in high-tech industries and private investment in infrastructure and manufacturing all exhibited faster growth rates than that of the total investment, Li said, adding that these highlights all prove China's high-quality economic development.”
Liu Yuanchun, president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, said that China's H1 economic performance undoubtedly represents an example of high-speed growth among major economies. According to Liu, it is essential to understand this round of recovery from a global and historical perspective, particularly taking the pandemic, disasters and major changes into consideration. ‘The recovery in the post-pandemic era is different from the normal and cyclical recoveries we've seen in the past,” he said, noting this round of recovery begins from society and transactions, and then moves on to profit and balance sheet, which will be a long process involving fluctuations. Li agreed that despite adverse effects resulting from global changes, China's economy has witnessed a rebound, with stable prices and financial stability.”
NBS Spokesperson Fu Linghui: We must be aware that the international political and economic circumstance is quite complicated, and the foundation for sustained recovery at home is not solid yet.
In the PD report, Liu Yuanchun talks about youth unemployment but there are no solutions that he offers.
Li Hui says that the agricultural situation is “stable and improving, and food security is generally guaranteed.” But there isn’t a similar level of confidence when it comes to energy security, with an acknowledgement that “regional and time-specific supply-demand contradictions still exist, making it crucial to ensure energy supply during the peak summer period.”
When discussing technological chokepoints, Liu Yuanchun puts a smart positive spin on it all, arguing that “we must have a strategic understanding that in the context of major power competition, the emergence of the ‘chokepoint’ problem is not a product of our backwardness, but a symbol of our breakthrough and progress.” 谈到如何保障产业链供应链安全，刘元春认为，最重要的是通过关键技术创新来补短板、锻长板，增强产业链供应链韧性。“我们要在大国博弈过程中有一种战略性认识，就是‘卡脖子’问题的出现不是我们落后的产物，恰恰是我们突破落后、进步的象征.”
All panellists praised the emergence of NEVs as the “highlight of China's economic development in the past two years.”
Regarding China’s macroeconomic policy toolbox and the upcoming policy and reform measures, Li Hui stated that compared to the policies of European countries and the US and the policies in China in previous years, there is sufficient space for the next step to address current short-term challenges. The State Council’s Executive Meeting on June 16 discussed a series of policy measures to promote sustained and favorable economic recovery, including enhancing macro policy regulation, focusing on expanding effective demand, strengthening and optimizing the real economy, and preventing and resolving risks in key areas. ‘These policies give consideration to supply and demand, focus on the present and the long-term, and coordinate development and security, which reflects the pertinence and operability of the policies,’ said Li Hui. The NDRC will push relevant departments to promptly introduce related policy measures, promoting the combined efforts of existing and new policies, ensuring their effective implementation and forming a synergy. Based on comprehensive research, they will also plan new reserve policies, continuously enriching the policy toolbox, and ensuring that these policies can be utilized effectively at critical moments. Reform is the fundamental measure to stimulate the intrinsic vitality and vigor of economic development. According to Liu Yuanchun, it is essential to organically combine three major measures: short-term policies, medium-term structural policies, and long-term institutional and systemic reforms. ‘In the second half of this year, we will definitely not rely solely on policies to solve problems but will implement a comprehensive package of measures.’ He emphasized that this includes repositioning short-term fiscal and monetary policies, reintroducing social policies, continuing the implementation of strategic industry policies, and introducing a series of deepening reform measures to be implemented and put into effect. Li Hui said that going forward, the NDRC will launch reform measures centered around three aspects: first, promoting reform around the cultivation of high-quality business entities and creating a more optimized and fair market competition environment; second, promoting reforms around the construction of a high-standard market system and promote the construction of a unified national market; and third, promoting reform by better combining effective markets and proactive government measures, further improving market access systems.
李慧表示，相对应于欧美国家和我国前几年的政策力度，下一步的政策空间是足够应对目前短期问题的。6月16日召开的国务院常务会议，研究推动经济持续回升向好的一批政策措施，包括加大宏观政策调控力度、着力扩大有效需求、做强做优实体经济、防范化解重点领域风险等四方面。“这些政策兼顾供给和需求，着眼当前和长远，统筹发展和安全，体现了政策的针对性和可操作性。”李慧说，国家发展改革委将推动有关方面尽快出台相关政策措施，促进存量政策和增量政策共同发力，确保政策落到实处，形成合力。在充分调研基础上还将谋划新的储备政策，不断丰富政策工具箱，确保关键时刻能拿得出、用得上、能见效。改革是激发经济发展内生动力和活力的根本举措。在刘元春看来，要将短期的政策、中期的结构性政策以及中长期的体制性、机制性改革三大举措进行有机结合。“我们下半年绝对不是简单地依赖政策来解决问题，而是一揽子方案。”他强调，这包括短期财政货币政策的再定位，社会政策的再出台，战略性产业政策的持续实施，以及系列深化改革举措的出台落地。李慧表示，下阶段国家发展改革委将围绕三方面推出改革举措：围绕高质量经营主体培育推进改革，营造更加优化公平的市场竞争环境；围绕高标准市场体系建设推进改革，推进全国统一大市场建设更好落地；围绕有效市场和有为政府更好结合推进改革，进一步完善市场准入制度等.
Next, there’s a report on the grain situation. NBS informed that “the national summer grain output this year was 146.13 million tons (292.3 billion Jin), which was 1.274 million tons (2.55 billion Jin) lower than that of the previous year, with a decrease of 0.9%. The summer grain output was stable and slightly reduced, and it was still at a high level, achieving a bumper harvest.” 国家统计局15日发布数据显示，今年全国夏粮产量14613万吨（2923亿斤），比上年减少127.4万吨（25.5亿斤），下降0.9%，夏粮产量稳中略减，仍处于较高水平，实现了丰收.
The piece adds: “Currently, China’s grain supply and demand are still in a tight balance, and structural contradictions remain prominent. The situation of food security remains severe, and we must never relax our efforts to ensure food security. Grain production must be a top priority every year.” 当前，我国粮食供求紧平衡的格局没有改变，结构性矛盾依然突出，粮食安全形势依然严峻，什么时候都不能轻言粮食过关了，粮食生产必须年年抓紧.
The article adds that “since the 18th Party Congress, the CPC Central Committee has attached great significance to the construction of grain production capacity, firmly held the red line of 1.8 billion mu of cultivable land, carried out in-depth seed industry revitalization actions, strengthened agricultural science and technology and equipment support, continuously consolidated and improved grain production capacity, and achieved basic self-sufficiency in grain and absolute safety in rations. The foundation of food security is capacity security. We put the improvement of comprehensive agricultural production capacity in a more prominent position, and truly put ‘storing grain in the land and storing grain through technology’ in place. This year, the foundation of summer grain production has become more and more solid.” 党的十八大以来，党中央高度重视粮食生产能力建设，牢牢守住十八亿亩耕地红线，深入实施种业振兴行动，强化农业科技和装备支撑，不断巩固提升粮食产能，实现了谷物基本自给、口粮绝对安全。粮食安全的根基是能力安全，把提高农业综合生产能力放在更加突出的位置，把“藏粮于地、藏粮于技”真正落实到位，今年夏粮生产基础越夯越实.
“Cultivated land is the lifeblood of grain production. By the end of 2022, China has built a total of 1 billion mu of high-standard farmland. This year, 45 million mu will be built further and 35 million mu will be upgraded.” 耕地是粮食生产的命根子。截至2022年底，我国累计建成10亿亩高标准农田。今年将新建4500万亩、改造提升3500万亩.
Likewise, there’s a report reviewing achievements of ecological and environmental protection since the 18th Party Congress. Some useful data points:
In 2022, the proportion of excellent air quality days in cities at or above the prefectural level reached 86.5%, and the proportion of heavy pollution days decreased to less than 1% for the first time. There has been a turning point in water environment quality. In 2022, the proportion of excellent sections of surface water quality in the country increased to 87.9%. 曾被雾霾笼罩的天空逐渐被擦亮。2022年，全国地级及以上城市空气质量优良天数比例达86.5%，重污染天数比例首次降到1%以内。水环境质量发生转折性变化。2022年，全国地表水水质优良断面比例升至87.9%。
Over the past 10 years, the country has completed afforestation of approximately 1.02 billion mu (about 68 million hectares).
Next, there’s a report on Zhao Leji meeting with a delegation of cadres of A Just Russia-Patriots-For Truth party. Xinhua reports Zhao said:
“under the strategic guidance and personal promotion of the two heads of state, China and Russia have continuously deepened political mutual trust, steadily advanced practical cooperation and maintained close and effective international coordination, setting a model of a new type of major-country relations. He said the Communist Party of China (CPC) is willing to work with the A Just Russia party to fully implement the consensus reached by the two heads of state, continuously enrich the content of exchanges between the two parties, and make new contributions to the development of China-Russia relations in the new era. Noting that the National People's Congress of China and the Russian Federation Council have always maintained good exchanges, Zhao said the Chinese side is willing to further deepen exchanges and mutual learning to provide a more fine-tuned legal guarantee for all-round cooperation between the two countries.”
Finally, there’s a report on Wang Huning’s comments at a symposium on analysing the economic situation in the first half of this year.
Wang said that “based on the historical achievements of China’s economic development in the new era and the continuous recovery and positive trend of China’s economic operation, from the excellent political wisdom and superb leadership skills of the Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core in its management of complex situations and calm handling of various risks and challenges, we must deeply understand the decisive significance of the Two Establishments, strengthen the four consciousnesses and four self-confidences and achieve the two safeguards, and unify thoughts and actions with the CPC Central Committee’s assessments and decisions on the economic situation, and promote sustained and healthy economic development with more firm confidence and determination.” 他表示，要从新时代我国经济发展历史性成就和当前我国经济运行持续回升向好态势中，从以习近平同志为核心的中共中央驾驭复杂局面、从容应对各种风险挑战的卓越政治智慧和高超领导艺术中，深刻领悟“两个确立”的决定性意义，增强“四个意识”、坚定“四个自信”、做到“两个维护”，把思想和行动统一到中共中央对经济形势的分析判断和对经济工作的决策部署上来，以更加坚定的信心决心推动经济持续健康发展.
Wang said that “Xi Jinping's economic thought and important discourse on current economic work provide fundamental guidance for economic work in the new era. We must conscientiously study, understand and implement these. Take a comprehensive, dialectical and long-term view of China’s economic situation, and complete the annual economic development goals and tasks with high quality. The CPPCC should focus on the center and serve the overall situation, firmly grasp the key points to promote high-quality development, and provide suggestions and efforts to stabilize and develop China’s economy for the long term.” 王沪宁表示，习近平经济思想和习近平总书记关于做好当前经济工作的重要论述，是指导做好新时代经济工作的根本遵循，要认真学习领会、抓好贯彻落实，全面、辩证、长远地看待我国经济形势，高质量完成全年经济发展目标任务。人民政协要坚持围绕中心、服务大局，牢牢把握推动高质量发展的着力点，为推动我国经济发展行稳致远献计出力。
The report says that the attending CPPCC members believe that the economy “is currently recovering well, market demand is recovering steadily, and production and supply has continued to expand. To maintain strategic stability, efforts should be made to stabilize economic growth, ensure people's well-being, and prevent risks, comprehensively optimize the business environment, expand residents' consumption, boost development confidence, drive high-quality development with high-level technological self-reliance, and promote the continuous improvement of economic operation.” 大家认为，当前我国经济运行整体回升向好，市场需求稳步恢复，生产供给持续增加。要保持战略定力，着力稳增长、保民生、防风险，全面优化营商环境，扩大居民消费，提振发展信心，以高水平科技自立自强驱动高质量发展，推动我国经济运行持续好转.
Page 3: There’s a report on comments by New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins at the 9th Annual China Business Summit in Auckland. He said that the two countries will continue to expand cooperation in the fields of economy, trade and environmental protection. PD reports: “Hipkins said that New Zealand is seeking to transition to a low-carbon economy, and China may become an important supplier of electric vehicles in New Zealand. The two sides can establish regular dialogue mechanisms in areas such as green finance, forestry and carbon emissions.” China Daily has a detailed story on this too, if you are interested in how Chinese media covered his comments.
What Chinese media did not cover is this bit from Hipkins’ speech.
“Our region is becoming more contested, less predictable, and less secure...And that poses challenges for small countries like New Zealand that are reliant on the stability and predictability of international rules for our prosperity and security…China’s rise and how it seeks to exert that influence is also a major driver of the increasing strategic competition, particularly in our wider home region, the Indo-Pacific…in this increasingly complex global environment, our relationship with China will continue to require careful management.”
Page 4: There’s a report on UFWD chief Shi Taifeng’s comments during an inspection tour to Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture in northeast China's Jilin Province last week. He said:
“We must thoroughly study and implement Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era and the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, firmly support the Two Establishments and resolutely achieve the Two Safeguards, and focus on United Front work, especially ethnic work and the actualities of ethnic minority areas, stress forging the consciousness of the Chinese nation as a community as the main line of this work, further improve the structure of the United Front work, implement the responsibility system for the United Front work, and effectively improve the pertinence and effectiveness of the work.” 中共中央政治局委员、中央统战部部长石泰峰在吉林延边调研时强调，要深入学习贯彻习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想和党的二十大精神，坚定拥护“两个确立”、坚决做到“两个维护”，立足统战工作特别是民族工作和民族地区实际，以铸牢中华民族共同体意识为主线，进一步完善大统战工作格局、落实统战工作责任制，切实提高工作针对性实效性.
The report informed that Shi visited villages, communities, enterprises, schools, and venues for religious activities. He conducted research on the implementation of the consciousness of the Chinese nation as a community and the progress of ethnic unity and progress, as well as the work of maintaining stability and promoting development in border areas. He presided over the symposium on improving the structure of the United Front Work and implementing the responsibility system for the United Front Work, and listened to the opinions and suggestions of the grassroots and relevant parties.
He said that “consolidating the consciousness of the Chinese nation as a community is the main line (Xinhua translated this as “critical gauge” of UFWD activities) of all work in ethnic regions is a major strategic consideration from the perspective of the ‘two overall situations’ and has important guiding significance for doing well in the Party's work on ethnic affairs and in ethnic regions in the new era. It is necessary to deeply study and understand the rich connotations, core principles, and practical requirements of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important exposition on consolidating the consciousness of the Chinese nation as a community, and effectively enhance political consciousness, ideological consciousness, and action consciousness in implementation, taking it as an important standard to evaluate the Party's work on ethnic affairs and in ethnic regions in the new era.” 石泰峰指出，党的十八大以来，习近平总书记多次强调铸牢中华民族共同体意识是新时代党的民族工作的主线，最近又进一步指出铸牢中华民族共同体意识是民族地区各项工作的主线。这是从“两个大局”高度作出的重大战略考量，对做好新时代党的民族工作和民族地区工作具有定向引航的重要指导意义。要深刻学习领会习近平总书记关于铸牢中华民族共同体意识重要论述的丰富内涵、核心要义和实践要求，切实增强贯彻落实的政治自觉、思想自觉、行动自觉，把铸牢中华民族共同体意识作为衡量新时代党的民族工作和民族地区工作的重要标准.
In the final paragraph, the report quotes Shi as stressing that it is important to “ensure that all work centers around and does not deviate from the main line.”
Page 6: There’s a brief report previewing the 2023 China Internet Civilization Conference, which begins in Xiamen, Fujian Province, today. I’ll try and track the outcomes from this in subsequent editions.
Page 17: On the international page, there is a report featuring criticism from people like the UN Secretary General’s office, UK Prime Minister, German Foreign Minister, etc, on the US’ decision to supply Ukraine with cluster munitions.