Xi on 15th FYP - BRICS Disagreement - China's Major Power Diplomacy in 2025
Hello everyone, I am doing a wrap today of key reports from May 1 and May 2. The newsletter covers 5 main themes:
Xi’s remarks around the 15th FYP
Adoption of Private Sector Promotion Law
The New COVID-19 White Paper
Friday’s Feature Article on Chinese Diplomacy
The Disagreements during the BRICS FMs Meeting in Rio
I. Planning for 15th FYP
Thursday’s big report in the paper was about Xi Jinping’s comments at a symposium on economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period in Shanghai. Li Qiang, Cai Qi, He Lifeng and Wu Zhenglong were present. Among the provincial heads that spoke were:
Sun Shaocheng, Inner Mongolia Party Secretary
Chen Jining, Shanghai Party Secretary
Wang Hao, Zhejiang Party Secretary
Wang Zhonglin, Hubei Party Secretary
Huang Kunming, Guangdong Provincial Party Secretary
Wang Xiaohui, Sichuan Party Secretary
Hu Changsheng, Gansu Party Secretary
After they spoke, Xi delivered a speech:
“He emphasised that scientific formulation and continuous implementation of the five-year plan is an important experience of our party in governing the country and an important political advantage of socialism with Chinese characteristics. In planning the economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, we must accurately grasp the phased requirements of the 15th Five-Year Plan period, focus on the construction of a strong country and the great cause of national rejuvenation, and closely focus on the goal of basically achieving socialist modernization; reasonably determine the goals and tasks in one field after another and put forward ideas and measures. For goals and tasks in all aspects, we must conduct in-depth analysis and demonstration to ensure they are scientific, precise, and achievable as per the schedule. We should plan comprehensively, grasp key and decisive factors, manage the rhythm and progress well, focus on consolidating and expanding advantages, breaking through bottlenecks and blockages, strengthening weaknesses and shortcomings, improving quality and efficiency, and maintaining directional consistency with overall goals.” 听取大家发言后，习近平发表重要讲话。他强调，科学制定和接续实施五年规划，是我们党治国理政一条重要经验，也是中国特色社会主义一个重要政治优势。谋划“十五五”时期经济社会发展，必须准确把握“十五五”时期的阶段性要求，着眼强国建设、民族复兴伟业，紧紧围绕基本实现社会主义现代化目标，一个领域一个领域合理确定目标任务、提出思路举措。对各方面的目标任务，要深入分析论证，确保科学精准、能够如期实现。要统筹谋划，抓住关键性、决定性因素，把握好节奏和进度，注重巩固拓展优势、突破瓶颈堵点、补强短板弱项、提高质量效益，与整体目标保持取向一致性.
“Xi Jinping pointed out that in planning economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, we should proactively grasp the impact of international situation changes on China and make adjustments and optimisations to the economic layout accordingly. We must unswervingly manage our own affairs well, unswervingly expand high-level opening up, take multiple measures to stabilise employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, effectively stabilize the basic economic situation, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, and comprehensively promote high-quality development. We should pay more attention to the overall coordination of development and security, comprehensively consider internal and external risks and challenges, improve the national security system, enhance the ability to maintain security, promote the benign interaction of high-quality development and high-level security with high-efficiency governance, and safeguard the new development pattern with a new security pattern. 习近平指出，谋划“十五五”时期经济社会发展，要前瞻性把握国际形势发展变化对我国的影响，因势利导对经济布局进行调整优化。要坚定不移办好自己的事，坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放，多措并举稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，有效稳住经济基本盘，加快构建新发展格局，全面推动高质量发展。要更加注重统筹发展和安全，通盘考虑内外部风险挑战，健全国家安全体系，增强维护安全能力，以高效能治理促进高质量发展和高水平安全良性互动，以新安全格局保障新发展格局.
Xi Jinping emphasised that during the ‘15th Five-Year Plan’ period, it is necessary to place the development of new quality productive forces according to local conditions in a more prominent strategic position, led by technological innovation and based on the real economy, adhering to comprehensively promoting the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, actively developing emerging industries, and planning future industries in advance simultaneously, to accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system. It is necessary to improve the national innovation system, stimulate the vitality of various innovation entities, aim for the world’s scientific and technological frontiers, continuously put effort into strengthening basic research and improving original innovation capabilities, and work urgently on breakthroughs in key core technologies and frontier technologies. It is necessary to coordinate the integrated development of education, science and technology, and talent, to build a fundamental and strategic support for the development of new quality productive forces. 习近平强调，“十五五”时期，必须把因地制宜发展新质生产力摆在更加突出的战略位置，以科技创新为引领、以实体经济为根基，坚持全面推进传统产业转型升级、积极发展新兴产业、超前布局未来产业并举，加快建设现代化产业体系。要完善国家创新体系，激发各类创新主体活力，瞄准世界科技前沿，在加强基础研究、提高原始创新能力上持续用力，在突破关键核心技术、前沿技术上抓紧攻关。要统筹推进教育科技人才一体发展，筑牢新质生产力发展的基础性、战略性支撑.
Xi Jinping pointed out that Chinese-style modernisation is socialist modernization that achieves common prosperity for all people. In planning economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, we must not forget our original intention, take benefiting the people as our fundamental value orientation, adhere to the protection and improvement of people’s livelihood in development, and steadily promote common prosperity. It is necessary thoroughly study effective measures in optimizing regional layout, promoting regional coordinated development, consolidating and expanding the results of poverty alleviation, promoting the comprehensive revitalization of rural areas and the integrated development of urban and rural areas, and accelerating the modernisation of agriculture and rural areas, so as to steadily increase the income of urban and rural residents. It is necessary to study and launch a number of policies and measures related to people’s livelihood, which have strong balance and accessibility, and strive to solve the urgent problems of the people. The key to matters involving the people is reality. All policies and measures must be practical and effective, and we must do our best and act within our means. 习近平指出，中国式现代化是全体人民共同富裕的社会主义现代化。谋划“十五五”时期经济社会发展，要不忘初心，把造福人民作为根本价值取向，坚持在发展中保障和改善民生，稳步推动共同富裕。要深入研究优化区域布局、促进区域协调发展和巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果、推进乡村全面振兴和城乡融合发展、加快农业农村现代化等方面的有效措施，稳步增加城乡群众收入。要研究推出一批均衡性可及性强的民生政策举措，着力解决群众急难愁盼问题。涉及老百姓的事情关键在实，各项政策举措要实实在在、富有实效，坚持尽力而为、量力而行.
Xi Jinping stressed that when planning the economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, all regions should accurately position themselves in the overall national situation and strengthen planning coordination. They should conduct in-depth investigations and studies, adhere to the unity of goal orientation and problem orientation, and focus on reflecting their own characteristics and giving play to their comparative advantages when determining development ideas and strategic measures. 习近平强调，各地区谋划“十五五”时期经济社会发展，要在全国大局中精准定位，加强规划衔接。要深入调查研究，坚持目标导向和问题导向相统一，在确定发展思路和战略举措时注重体现自身特色、发挥比较优势.
Friday’s paper carries a front page commentary drawing on Xi’s comments about the development of new quality productive forces.
It says:
“Under the guidance of Xi Jinping’s Economic Thought, China has persisted in using technological innovation to drive industrial innovation, developing new quality productive forces according to local conditions, providing strong driving force and support for high-quality development. Data shows that in 2024, the added value of high-tech manufacturing industries above designated size increased by 8.9% compared to the previous year, with emerging industries represented by high-end equipment and AI showing good development trends; manufacturing technology transformation investment increased by 8% compared to the previous year, with solid progress in the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries; the proportion of hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and solar power generation in industries above designated size increased to 32.6%, with green and low-carbon transformation continuing to deepen. Looking at China today, major scientific and technological achievements such as Shenzhou space flights, Beidou networking, and Chang’e lunar exploration are emerging one after another, industries such as 5G, high-speed rail, and new energy vehicles are leading the world, innovation vitality is surging, and development momentum is becoming more powerful. Practice has shown that promoting the development of new quality productive forces is an inevitable requirement to ensure that our country remains at the forefront of the modern economic tide.” 在习近平经济思想引领下，我国坚持以科技创新推动产业创新，因地制宜发展新质生产力，为高质量发展提供强劲推动力、支撑力。数据显示，2024年，我国规模以上高技术制造业增加值比上年增长8.9%，以高端装备、人工智能等为代表的新兴产业发展态势向好；制造业技改投资比上年增长8%，传统产业转型升级扎实推进；规模以上工业水电、核电、风电和太阳能发电占比提高到32.6%，绿色低碳转型持续深入。放眼今日之中国，“神舟”飞天、“北斗”组网、“嫦娥”探月等重大科技成果竞相涌现，5G、高铁、新能源汽车等产业领先世界，创新活力勃发奔涌，发展动能更加澎湃。实践表明，推动新质生产力发展，是确保我们国家在现代经济大潮中始终成为弄潮儿的必然要求.
In today's world, competition with regard to the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation is becoming more intense, and strategic technologies represented by AI are profoundly changing human production and lifestyle. China is at a critical stage of accelerating transformation and upgrading, and striving to promote high-quality development. External shocks and impacts are increasing, and internal difficulties and challenges are still numerous, urgently requiring further liberation and development of social productive forces, improving the quality and efficiency of development, and responding to the uncertainty of rapidly changing external environments with the certainty of high-quality development. On the path forward, only by placing the development of new quality productive forces according to local conditions in a more prominent strategic position, adhering to the core position of innovation in the overall modernization construction, and persisting in placing the focus of economic development on the real economy, can we occupy the commanding heights of international competition, continuously shape new drivers and new advantages for economic development, and firmly grasp the initiative of development in our own hands. 当今世界，围绕新一轮科技革命和产业变革的竞争更加激烈，以人工智能为代表的战略性技术，正在深刻改变人类生产生活方式。我国正处在加快转型升级步伐、奋力推进高质量发展的关键阶段，外部冲击影响加大，内部困难挑战依然较多，迫切要求进一步解放和发展社会生产力，提高发展质量和效益，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性。前进道路上，只有把因地制宜发展新质生产力摆在更加突出的战略位置，坚持创新在现代化建设全局中的核心地位，坚持把发展经济的着力点放在实体经济上，才能占据国际竞争制高点，不断塑造经济发展新动能、新优势，把发展主动权牢牢掌握在自己手中.
Developing new quality productive forces is a long-term task and systematic project that requires scientific planning, comprehensive consideration, and solid advancement. We must deeply recognise that technological innovation and industrial innovation are the basic paths for developing new quality productive forces. We should be guided by technological innovation, based on the real economy, adhere to comprehensively promoting the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, actively developing emerging industries, and planning future industries in advance simultaneously, to accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system. New quality productive forces are mainly generated by revolutionary technological breakthroughs. We should improve the national innovation system, stimulate the vitality of various innovation entities, aim at the world’s scientific and technological frontiers, continuously put effort into strengthening basic research and improving original innovation capabilities, and work urgently on breakthroughs in key core technologies and frontier technologies. Talent is the most active and decisive dynamic subject in cultivating and developing new quality productive forces. We should coordinate the integrated development of education, science and technology, and talent, to build a fundamental and strategic support for the development of new quality productive forces. 发展新质生产力是一项长期任务、系统工程，需要科学谋划、统筹兼顾，扎扎实实向前推进。要深刻认识到，科技创新和产业创新是发展新质生产力的基本路径。我们要以科技创新为引领、以实体经济为根基，坚持全面推进传统产业转型升级、积极发展新兴产业、超前布局未来产业并举，加快建设现代化产业体系。新质生产力主要由技术革命性突破催生而成。要完善国家创新体系，激发各类创新主体活力，瞄准世界科技前沿，在加强基础研究、提高原始创新能力上持续用力，在突破关键核心技术、前沿技术上抓紧攻关。人才是培育和发展新质生产力最活跃、最具决定意义的能动主体。要统筹推进教育科技人才一体发展，筑牢新质生产力发展的基础性、战略性支撑.
II. NPCSC Meeting
There was a report on Thursday, which informed of the outcomes of the NPCSC meeting. The meeting concluded by adopting the revised Law on the Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases and the Private Sector Promotion Law. You read the full English translated text of the Private Sector Promotion Law on the Inside China substack. The meeting also approved decisions to ratify an agreement between China and Saudi Arabia on judicial assistance and cooperation in civil and commercial matters, and a treaty between China and Ethiopia on the transfer of sentenced persons.
III. New COVID-19 Origins White Paper
Thursday’s paper informed of the publication of a new White Paper: “Covid-19 Prevention, Control and Origins Tracing: China’s Actions and Stance”. The paper has a full section dedicated to the US’ response to COVID-19, and it is scathing in its assessment. The paper also alleges that COVID-19 originated in the US. Some excerpts below:
“The slow and ineffective US response during the early stages of the outbreak set an appalling example to the international community and made the US performance in handling the pandemic the worst of all countries. Instead of facing this issue squarely and reflecting on its shortcomings, the US government has tried to shift the blame and divert people’s attention by shamelessly politicizing SARS-CoV-2 origins tracing. It has severely undermined joint international efforts in the fight against the pandemic and become a weak link in global public health governance. Despite domestic criticisms of its inaction or meddling, the US government has refused to examine its poor performance; rather, it has doubled down on its attempt to evade responsibility. This will inevitably do further damage to its capacity to deal with future public health crises. At the end of 2024, when cases of human infection with highly pathogenic avian influenza emerged in the US, it did not share the information with the international community. It then cut off reporting channels to the WHO and stopped updates on its Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) website at the beginning of 2025. This shows that it was in fact the United States that covered up the truth of the epidemic.”
Also this:
“The US president (then it was Donald Trump) thwarted the pandemic prevention and control efforts of professional agencies, local governments, and the public in the belief that this would secure gains in the presidential election. Ultimately, they failed in both the pandemic response and the election. Its errors in its early epidemic response were addressed in an article from a US media outlet, ‘One country stands alone, as the only affluent nation to have suffered a severe, sustained outbreak for more than four months: the United States’. After the Democratic Party came to power, the US government adjusted its pandemic response policies; however, a political pandemic of ‘partisanship over life’ was spreading. Some politicians from the defeated Republican party began to encourage and spread vaccine conspiracy theories, inciting resistance to and skepticism about vaccines among the public. Their manipulation of public sentiment severely weakened the country’s pandemic prevention and control.”
And this:
“On February 8, 2020, as other countries actively supported China during its initial epidemic outbreak, the US State Department also announced US$ 100 million in assistance. However, to date, that pledge has not been honored. In contrast, despite the US failure to keep its promise, China still extended substantial aid when the US was in need. On April 1, 2020, National Public Radio aired a recording of the US president himself, admitting that China was providing the US with 80 tonnes of medical supplies, including 1.8 million masks, 10.3 million pairs of gloves, and millions of other items. According to a report by a US media outlet on January 29, 2021, China provided medical supplies valued at US$12 million in March and April 2020. Notably, Zhejiang Province alone sent 11 million masks to 12 US states, including Indiana, with which it has forged a friendship for over 30 years. However, some US politicians showed no appreciation for China’s magnanimity and generosity. Since they could not conceal China’s aid to the world – including their own country – they smeared it as ‘mask diplomacy’ aimed at influencing the international community. The US was unwilling to assume its responsibility to help other countries, yet it was opposed to China stepping up with such initiatives. Its approach was neither serious nor dignified.”
IV. China’s Major Power Diplomacy
Fourth, in Friday’s paper, there’s a front page article highlighting China’s major power and head of state diplomacy. This is basically a review of Xi Jinping’s recent visits and meetings. In the first section, the article talks about the Asian Winter Games in Harbin; then it focuses on Xi’s recent visit to Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia. It says:
“As the external environment for China’s development undergoes significant changes, the primary position of neighbouring countries in China’s overall diplomacy has become even more prominent. The world’s largest developing country has proposed viewing the neighbourhood with a global perspective. The first major diplomatic event at home gathered Asian friends; the first foreign visit also chose neighboring countries.” 随着中国发展的外部环境发生显著变化，周边在中国外交全局中的首要地位进一步凸显，世界最大发展中国家提出以全球视野审视周边。首场主场外交汇聚亚洲宾朋，首次出访也选择了周边邻国.
It adds: “45, 26, 37…during the visits, China and Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia signed a ‘record-breaking’ 108 cooperation documents. These covered both traditional areas and new quality productive forces. Mutually beneficial cooperation between China and its neighbouring countries continues to expand, and a closer, co-developed, and symbiotic pattern is taking shape.” 45、26、37——访问期间，中国同越、马、柬三国签署“创纪录”的108份合作文件。既有传统领域合作，也有新质生产力领域的携手。中国同周边国家互利合作不断拓展，正在形成更为紧密的共生、协同发展格局。
The article then talks about the Central Conference on Work Related to Neighbouring Countries. It says that at this conference:
“at a time when China’s relations with neighbouring countries are at their ‘best period in modern history’, and also at a time of ‘deep interplay between regional dynamics and global changes’, China issued a major power declaration, ‘join hands with neighboring countries to create a better future’. With building the ‘five homes’ of peace, tranquility, prosperity, beauty, and friendship as a common vision; with good neighbourliness, peaceful neighbourliness, prosperous neighbourliness, sincerity, amity, inclusiveness, mutual benefit, and shared destiny as guiding principles; with Asian values of peace, cooperation, openness, and inclusiveness as basic guidelines; with high-quality joint construction of BRI as the main platform; with an Asian security model of shared security concerns, seeking common ground while reserving differences, and dialogue and consultation as strategic support... International media commented: At a time when certain major powers are replaying the old script of threatening to annex neighbouring countries, China is demonstrating to the world what is the correct way for a major power to get along with its neighbours. How major powers relate to their neighbours reflects its worldview, view of order, and value system. Under the leadership of head-of-state diplomacy, respecting each other’s development paths, supporting each other’s core interests, and providing mutual strategic support have increasingly become distinctive features of China’s relations with neighbouring countries.” 4月8日至9日，新中国历史上首次中央周边工作会议在北京召开，习近平总书记出席会议并发表重要讲话。在同周边关系“近代以来最好的时期”，也是“周边格局和世界变局深度联动的重要阶段”，中国发出“携手周边国家共创美好未来”的大国宣言。以建设和平、安宁、繁荣、美丽、友好“五大家园”为共同愿景，以睦邻、安邻、富邻、亲诚惠容、命运与共为理念方针，以和平、合作、开放、包容的亚洲价值观为基本遵循，以高质量共建“一带一路”为主要平台，以安危与共、求同存异、对话协商的亚洲安全模式为战略支撑……国际媒体评论：当个别大国重演威胁吞并邻国的陈旧戏码，中国向世界展现了什么才是大国同邻国相处的正确之道。大国与周边如何相处，折射出大国的世界观、秩序观和价值观。在元首外交引领下，尊重各自发展道路、支持彼此核心利益、相互提供战略支撑，日益成为中国同周边国家关系的鲜明特征.
The second section of the article talks about China’s engagement with Europe and the US. It begins by talking about Xi’s meeting with the visiting Spanish PM in April. It says:
“China and Europe are two major forces promoting multipolarisation, two major markets supporting globalisation, and two major civilisations advocating diversity. The relationship between the two sides has strategic significance and global influence.” 中欧是推动多极化的两大力量、支持全球化的两大市场、倡导多样性的两大文明，双方关系具有战略意义和世界影响.
No surprises that the US comes in for criticism for bullying and ‘tariff weaponisation’. And then the piece talks about how other actors are also pushing back against this. Other key meetings covered in this section are the visit of Kenyan President William Ruto and Xi’s engagement with foreign CEOs at the end of March. In the case of the latter, the piece says:
“From logistics, automobiles to pharmaceuticals, energy and other fields, there are developed countries such as the United States, Germany, France, Britain, Japan, as well as Global South countries like Saudi Arabia and Brazil. The collective gathering of international business figures in Beijing fully demonstrates the enormous attraction of the Chinese market for global industries. In his meeting, President Xi pointed out that China offers a large business stage, broad market prospects, stable policy expectations, and a good security situation, making it a fertile ground favorable for foreign enterprises to invest and develop businesses. China has been, is, and will be an ideal, safe, and promising investment destination for foreign businesses. Moving forward with China means moving forward with opportunities; believing in China means believing in tomorrow; investing in China means investing in the future. As the world’s second-largest economy, China has a large market of more than 1.4 billion people and the largest middle-income group in scale, and is a major trading partner for more than 150 countries and regions. In recent years, China has actively built diversified markets and deepened industrial and supply chain cooperation with various parties, not only empowering the development of others but also enhancing its own resilience. 从物流、汽车到医药、能源等领域，有美、德、法、英、日等发达国家，也有沙特、巴西等全球南方国家。国际工商界人士集体聚首北京，充分表明中国市场对全球产业的巨大吸引力。习近平主席在会见中指出，中国事业舞台大，市场前景广，政策预期稳，安全形势好，正是有利于外资企业投资兴业的一方沃土。中国过去是、现在是、将来也必然是外商理想、安全、有为的投资目的地，与中国同行就是与机遇同行，相信中国就是相信明天，投资中国就是投资未来。作为世界第二大经济体，中国拥有14亿多人口的大市场、规模最大的中等收入群体，是150多个国家和地区的主要贸易伙伴。近年来，中国积极构建多元化市场，深化与各方产业链供应链合作，不仅赋能对方发展，也增强了自身韧性.
The piece then mentions China signing a mutual visa exemption pact with Malaysia and Azerbaijan. It adds that since 2024, China has implemented 240-hour transit visa exemption for people from 54 countries. It has also made departure tax refunds more convenient. The section ends by arguing that:
“Facts have time and again powerfully shown that, no matter how the outside world seeks to contain and suppress, as long as China unswervingly handles its own affairs well and unswervingly expands high-level opening-up to the outside world, it can demonstrate the resilience of ‘growing stronger under pressure’.” 事实一再有力表明，无论外界怎么围堵打压，只要中国坚定不移办好自己的事，坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放，就能展现“越压越强”的韧性.
The third and final section basically deals with China’s diplomatic approach to competition with the US.
“In the face of certain countries provoking strategic competition among major powers and inciting bloc confrontation, China, starting from the fundamental interests of all humanity, emphasises that major powers bear special and important responsibilities for world peace and development, and promotes the establishment of a major-power relations framework featuring peaceful coexistence, overall stability, and balanced development. On January 21 and February 24 this year, President Xi Jinping held a video meeting and a phone call, respectively, with Russian President Vladimir Putin, conducting in-depth strategic communication on major international and regional issues, and steering the China-Russia relationship at a critical moment. ‘No matter how the international situation changes, China-Russia relations will move forward calmly, assist each other’s development and revitalisation, and inject stability and positive energy into international relations.’ ‘Developing relations with China is a strategic choice made by the Russian side with a long-term vision; it is by no means an expedient measure, and is not influenced by a single event nor disturbed by external factors.’ … The firm and powerful statements of the two heads of state show the world that a mature, tenacious and stable China-Russia relationship is a constant in a turbulent world, not a variable in geopolitical games.
This year marks the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the European Union. China-EU relations are at an important juncture of inheriting the past and ushering in the future. The healthy and stable development of China-EU relations aligns with the fundamental interests of both sides and the common expectations of the world. ‘Like-minded people are partners; seeking common ground while reserving differences also makes partners.’ On January 14, in a phone call with European Council President António Costa, President Xi Jinping profoundly pointed out that over the past 50 years, China-EU relations have not only contributed to their respective development, but also made important contributions to world peace and prosperity. ‘China has confidence in the EU and hopes the EU can also become a cooperation partner China can trust.’ ‘Europe and China both respect the purposes of the UN Charter, uphold multilateralism, safeguard free trade, and oppose bloc confrontation. The two sides should cooperate rather than compete.’ Costa responded positively, saying that the current era is full of challenges, and the world needs closer cooperation between Europe and China to jointly address global challenges such as climate change and make positive contributions to world peace, stability, and development.
Amid great changes unseen in a century, the Global South, as an important pole in global politics, economy, and culture, is having an increasingly significant impact. Looking to the future, the Global South is the key to stabilising and improving the world. As a natural member of the Global South, China has always cared about the Global South, is rooted in the Global South, and continues to rally the ‘Southern strength’ of solidarity and cooperation among developing countries. This spring, from Asia to Africa to Latin America, the partners and friends with whom President Xi Jinping interacted the most were still those from the vast Global South.”面对个别国家挑动大国战略竞争、煽动阵营对抗，中国从全人类根本利益出发，强调大国对世界和平与发展承担着特殊重要责任，推动构建和平共处、总体稳定、均衡发展的大国关系格局。今年1月21日、2月24日，习近平主席同俄罗斯总统普京分别举行视频会晤、通电话，就重大国际和地区问题进行深入战略沟通，在关键时刻为中俄关系把舵领航。“任凭国际风云变幻，中俄关系都将从容前行，为各自发展振兴助力，为国际关系注入稳定性和正能量”“发展对华关系是俄方着眼长远作出的战略选择，绝非权宜之计，不受一时一事影响，不受外部因素干扰”……两国元首坚定有力的表态，向世界昭示：一个成熟、坚韧、稳定的中俄关系，是动荡世界中的恒量，而非地缘博弈里的变量。今年是中国同欧盟建交50周年，中欧关系处于承前启后的重要节点。中欧关系健康、稳定发展，符合双方根本利益和世界普遍期待。“志同道合是伙伴，求同存异也是伙伴。”1月14日，习近平主席在同欧洲理事会主席科斯塔通电话时深刻指出，50年来，中欧关系不仅助力各自发展，也为世界和平和繁荣作出重要贡献。“中国对欧盟抱有信心，希望欧盟也能成为中方可以信任的合作伙伴。”“欧中都尊重联合国宪章宗旨、坚持多边主义、维护自由贸易，反对阵营对抗，双方应当合作而不是竞争。”科斯塔积极回应，当今时代充满挑战，世界需要欧中更加紧密合作，共同应对气候变化等全球性挑战，共同为世界和平稳定发展作出积极贡献。世界百年大变局下，全球南方作为世界政治、经济、文化的重要一极，产生着越来越重要的影响。展望未来，要让世界稳下来、好起来，全球南方是关键。中国作为全球南方的当然一员，始终心系全球南方、扎根全球南方，不断汇聚发展中国家团结合作的“南方力量”。这个春天，从亚洲到非洲再到拉丁美洲，习近平主席交往互动最多的，还是广大全球南方国家的伙伴和朋友。
The piece adds: “More than 100 countries are supporting the three major global initiatives, and more than three-quarters of the world’s countries have joined the BRI family.”
V. BRICS FMs Meeting
There’s a readout today from the BRICS representatives’ meeting on security affairs. The Chinese readout said:
“Wang Yi stated that turning international politics into a transaction, weaponizing international trade, and fabricating extortion tools out of nothing will only exacerbate the crisis of trust among countries and become a real risk to global security. Standing at the crossroads of history, should we allow unilateralism to run rampant, or firmly uphold multilateralism? The BRICS countries must give a clear answer. There is no way out in retreat; unity is where hope lies.
First, we must be defenders of the right to development. As leaders among developing countries and the front-line formation of the Global South, BRICS countries cannot sit by while legitimate rights and interests are arbitrarily stripped away. We must stand up unequivocally to stop power politics and firmly defend the development rights and space of developing countries.
Second, we must be leaders of solidarity and cooperation. The authoritative status of the UBN will not change because of threats or withdrawals by certain countries. The BRICS countries must take the lead, advocate for harmony in diversity and a world of shared prosperity, uphold the spirit of openness and inclusiveness, mutual benefit and win-win outcomes, use the righteousness of equality and respect to curb pressure and confrontation, and use the foresight of unity and cooperation to surpass selfish calculations.
Third, we must be guardians of multilateralism. The BRICS countries must hold high the banner of multilateralism, take the lead in safeguarding the international system with the United Nations at its core, safeguard the multilateral trading system with the WTO at its core, and promote the development of the international order toward a more just and reasonable direction.
王毅表示，将国际政治交易化、国际贸易武器化，凭空制造讹诈筹码，只会加剧各国间的信任危机，成为全球安全的真正风险。站在历史的十字路口，是允许单边主义肆意蔓延，还是坚定倡导多边主义？金砖国家要给出明确的答案。退让没有出路，团结才是希望所在。 一要做发展权利的捍卫者。作为发展中国家的领头羊、全球南方的第一方阵，金砖国家不能坐视正当权益被肆意剥夺，必须毫不含糊地站出来阻止强权，旗帜鲜明地为发展中国家维护发展权利和空间。 二要做团结合作的引领者。联合国的权威地位不会因个别国家的要挟或退出而改变。金砖国家要作出表率，倡导美美与共、天下大同，秉持开放包容、互利共赢的精神，以平等尊重的正气遏止施压对抗，以团结合作的远见超越唯利是图。 三要做多边主义的维护者。金砖国家要高举多边主义旗帜，带头维护以联合国为核心的国际体系，维护以世贸组织为核心的多边贸易体制，推动国际秩序朝着更加公正合理的方向发展.
Also in the paper today is an abstract of the BRICS Presidency Declaration (full English text available here). This was issued because the foreign ministers failed to agree upon a joint statement. The key sticking point is evident in the declaration's paragraph 8, which Egypt and Ethiopia distanced from.
Here’s the text:
“Recognizing the 2023 Johannesburg II Declaration, the Ministers supported a comprehensive reform of the United Nations, including its Security Council, with a view to making it more democratic, representative, effective and efficient, and to increase the representation of developing countries in theCouncil’s memberships so that it can adequately respond to prevailing global challenges and supported the legitimate aspirations of emerging and developing countries from Africa, Asia and Latin America, including Brazil and India, to play a greater role in international affairs, in particular in the United Nations, including its Security Council. They also recognised the legitimate aspirations of African countries, reflected in the Ezulwini Consensus and Sirte Declaration.”
For more context, Bloomberg reports:
“Shortly after welcoming new members to the club, the BRICS bloc of nations is suffering from the same problem dogging other global multilateral institutions: Its members can’t agree on key issues. Foreign ministers from the world’s major emerging economies refused to sign a consensus statement at the end of a two-day meeting in Rio de Janeiro, after new members opposed parts of a previously approved plan to reform the United Nations Security Council. Egypt and Ethiopia — two newer additions to the bloc named for original founders Brazil, Russia, India, China and later South Africa — balked at the group’s backing of South Africa for a permanent seat on the body, according to a statement released by Brazil on Tuesday. At 2023 talks in Johannesburg, BRICS members agreed to back Brazil, India and South Africa for seats on the council, part of their efforts to make the UN more democratic and representative of the so-called Global South. The group is working to overcome the differences and could still reach consensus at its leaders summit in July, Brazil Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira said at a press conference after the statement was released. But the initial disagreement bodes poorly for the group’s ambition to expand its influence on the global stage, filling the void left by traditional multilateral institutions that have long suffered from lack of consensus and paralysis.”
For more context, SCMP’s report adds:
“The lack of internal consensus over the issue had already led to the failure of the group’s foreign ministers to produce a joint statement last year for the first time. The rift has largely pitted the five anchor members and those added to the framework at the Johannesburg summit in 2023. Tensions over Security Council reform underscore challenges facing Brics after its 2023 expansion, which brought in Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. While China and Russia strongly backed the enlargement, Brazilian diplomats had warned of potential dilution of their country’s influence. When expansion became inevitable, Lula’s team successfully negotiated for stronger language in support of Security Council reform in previous Brics communiques – language that Egypt and Ethiopia now appear unwilling to reaffirm.”
At this point, I just want to share some comments that I had made in an interview in 2023 for Kalavinka Viewpoints, when BRICS was expanding. Here’s the full Q&A:
Q5. With the recent BRICS summit in South Africa, the media and pundits are full of hyperbole about the potential of this grouping as an alternative to the G7. What is your take and how should India approach this expansion? Is there a concern that BRICS is primarily a Chinese forum that will ultimately follow its guidance? How do you see BRICS evolving into a more formal structure with rules and obligations/responsibilities, and should the US and its allies be concerned about this?
Yes, I concur that there is more significant hyperbole around BRICS than actual achievement. Historically, economic cooperation and somewhat shared perspectives among emerging economies on matters related to global governance reform provided the raison d’etre for BRICS cooperation. In this sense, the group’s agenda was not just economic but also political. Over time, officially, BRICS cooperation has expanded to be premised on the three pillars: political and security, economic and financial, and cultural and people-to-people exchanges. In practice, it has been the economy and finance pillar, however, that has done the heavy lifting. This is evident in the establishment of the New Development Bank and the Contingent Reserve Arrangement. In contrast, the political and security pillar has largely under-delivered. Of course, there have been annual meetings of BRICS foreign ministers and security advisors since 2009. But those have generally been about reaffirming shared perspectives on global governance issues and coordinating positions on shared concerns as opposed to necessarily operationalizing new, broad-based initiatives. One could point to the BRICS working groups on drugs, counter-terrorism and ICT security to argue that progress has been made. But this would be missing the woods for the trees. Just look at India and China’s disagreements on terrorism and information and communications technologies and the differences among BRICS members become apparent. One could argue that this is just an issue between two members; but let’s not forget that these are the two biggest economies in the group.
In a sense, the biggest achievement of the BRICS over the past 15 years has been its ability to build and leverage its brand value as a club of emerging economies. This brand value derives more from the economic success of individual member states, particularly China and India, than the group’s collective bargaining power or clout. From my perspective, the current expansion of the BRICS grouping actually dilutes this brand value. It is unclear on what basis these new members were chosen and added. There were evidently no clear membership criteria – at least none were made public. The decisions on the new members simply appear to be products of political bargains. With this new constitution, can the BRICS now be termed as a group of emerging economies? Moreover, with new members like Iran and Saudi Arabia, there are likely to be new contradictions that the group will face, given that its decisions are made based on unanimous agreement.
On the question of who has gained from this expansion, I think the narrative that this is a victory for China is misplaced. For some time now, the BRICS grouping has been undergoing what I term as an identity crisis. This was sharply evident during the 2022 BRICS summit, which China hosted. If you read the speeches by Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin at that summit, it was clear that they wanted to group together to adopt a sharper geopolitical edge and broader security agenda. In contrast, the comments by the leaders of India, Brazil and South Africa suggested that the three countries largely wanted the BRICS to retain its development focus. So, does the expansion make it a much more geopolitically sound grouping that further Chinese and Russian interests? I am not sure that it does.
First, India, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are close American partners. The US and Egypt too have a complex yet deep relationship. So, it is not like the new members are necessarily hostile to the US or the West. Of course, in a world where the distribution of power is undergoing rapid changes, they, like many others, are looking to expand their options and space for maneuverability. None of them, however, appreciate what they see as interference in domestic affairs, and all would like to hedge for better deals. Second, economics still remains the key driver for countries wanting to join BRICS. For Argentina, Egypt, Iran and the other new members, access to markets, shared concerns around food and energy security, access to new investments, dealing with the challenges presented by American sanctions, etc., remain important considerations. In other words, they are in there for their interests rather than to further Beijing’s geopolitical agenda. Where interests coincide, these countries will collaborate. That does not make the new BRICS an alternate bloc. In fact, I would wager that the expansion will make the BRICS much more unwieldy, and it is highly unlikely that we will see any institutionalization. Maintaining this informality suits the new members, as it does India.
What the US and its allies should, however, be concerned about are the grievances in large parts of the developing world over the lack of representation and regard for their interests, along with the erosion of trust in and the appeal of the rules-based order that the West claims to champion.”