Xi Warns of Protracted Corruption Fight - 九个以 to Promote Self-Revolution - Weak Foreign Investment & Trade Outlook - Cost of a Taiwan Invasion
Here are the key reports and articles that I found noteworthy from the People's Daily’s edition on Tuesday, January 09, 2024.
Page 1: The top story today is about Xi Jinping’s speech at the CCDI plenary session. Xi said that:
“After a decade of relentless and vigorous anti-corruption efforts in the new era, an overwhelming victory has been achieved in the fight against corruption, and comprehensive consolidation has been realised. However, the situation continues to remain grim and complex. We must have a clear understanding of the new situations and new trends in the anti-corruption struggle, as well as the soil and conditions that give rise to the problems of corruption. With the resilience and perseverance of always continuing to act, we must make precise and sustained efforts, resolutely win the tough battle and protracted battle against corruption.” 他强调，经过新时代十年坚持不懈的强力反腐，反腐败斗争取得压倒性胜利并全面巩固，但形势依然严峻复杂。我们对反腐败斗争的新情况新动向要有清醒认识，对腐败问题产生的土壤和条件要有清醒认识，以永远在路上的坚韧和执着，精准发力、持续发力，坚决打赢反腐败斗争攻坚战持久战.
“Xi Jinping pointed out that 2023 was the first year to fully implement the spirit of the 20th Party Congress. The Party Central Committee unswervingly promoted the Party's self-revolution, carried out in-depth education on the study and implementation of Thought on socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era throughout the Party; persisted in using the Party's innovative theories to forge souls; made great efforts to ensure that political supervision was more specific, precise and regularised; focused on rectifying prominent problems of formalism and bureaucratism; resolutely eliminated the black sheep among Party members and cadres; strengthened the management and oversight of Party members and officials in a strict and practical manner; promoted the development of comprehensive and strict Party governance; and promoted the implementation of the decisions and arrangements of the 20th Party Congress to the letter, effectively leading the way to ensure the start of the new journey.” 习近平指出，2023年是全面贯彻党的二十大精神的开局之年。党中央坚定不移推进党的自我革命，在全党深入开展学习贯彻新时代中国特色社会主义思想主题教育，坚持不懈用党的创新理论凝心铸魂，着力推进政治监督具体化、精准化、常态化，着力整治形式主义、官僚主义突出问题，坚决清除党员、干部队伍中的害群之马，从严从实加强对党员、干部的管理监督，推动全面从严治党向纵深发展，推动党的二十大决策部署不折不扣贯彻落实，有力引领保障新征程开局起步.
“Xi Jinping emphasised that as the world’s largest Marxist ruling party, how can our Party successfully break free from the historical cycle of rise and fall, ensuring that the party never deteriorates, changes colour, or loses flavour? This is a strategic issue before all comrades in the Party. Since the 18th Party Congress, in the great practice of advancing the comprehensive and strict governance of the Party, we have continuously engaged in practical exploration and theoretical reflection. Building on Comrade Mao Zedong's initial answer of ‘letting the people supervise the government’, we have provided a second answer, which is to continuously promote the Party’s self-revolution. In the ten years of practice and theoretical exploration related to comprehensively and strictly Party governance in the new era, we have continuously deepened our understanding of the Party’s self-revolution, accumulated rich practical experience, and established a series of important theoretical achievements. These have systematically answered major questions such as why our Party desires to carry out self-revolution, why it can carry out self-revolution, and how to promote self-revolution. 习近平强调，我们党作为世界上最大的马克思主义执政党，如何成功跳出治乱兴衰历史周期率、确保党永远不变质不变色不变味？这是摆在全党同志面前的一个战略性问题。党的十八大以来，在推进全面从严治党的伟大实践中，我们不断进行实践探索和理论思考，在毛泽东同志当年给出“让人民来监督政府”的第一个答案基础上，给出了第二个答案，那就是不断推进党的自我革命。在新时代十年全面从严治党的实践和理论探索中，我们不断深化对党的自我革命的认识，积累了丰富实践经验，形成了一系列重要理论成果，系统回答了我们党为什么要自我革命、为什么能自我革命、怎样推进自我革命等重大问题.
Xi then pointed to 9 issues that needed to be grasped (九个以) to promote self-revolution. This 九个以 will become a slogan emerging from this speech. The 9 aspects are:
Taking the upholding the centralised and unified leadership of the CPC Central Committee as the fundamental guarantee
Taking the leading of the great social revolution as the fundamental purpose
Taking the Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era as the fundamental guideline that must be adhered to
Taking breaking free from historical cycle of rise and fall as the strategic goal
Taking solving the unique problems of a big Party as the main direction
Taking establishing a sound system for comprehensive and strict Party governance as an effective approach to achieve objectives
Taking the forging of a strong organisation and building an excellent team as a key emphasis/focal point
Taking rectifying discipline, upholding integrity, and combating corruption as an important starting point
Taking combining self-supervision with people's supervision as a powerful driving force
We must persist in emancipating our minds, seeking truth from facts, keeping pace with the times, maintaining integrity and innovating, constantly carrying out practical exploration and theoretical innovation, constantly deepening the understanding of the Party's self-revolution, making the ideas and measures related to the Party's self-revolution more rigorous, and grasping self-revolution on every front and in every link in a tangible and in-depth manner.” 习近平指出，在深入推进党的自我革命实践中需要把握好九个问题，即：以坚持党中央集中统一领导为根本保证，以引领伟大社会革命为根本目的，以新时代中国特色社会主义思想为根本遵循，以跳出历史周期率为战略目标，以解决大党独有难题为主攻方向，以健全全面从严治党体系为有效途径，以锻造坚强组织、建设过硬队伍为重要着力点，以正风肃纪反腐为重要抓手，以自我监督和人民监督相结合为强大动力。要坚持解放思想、实事求是、与时俱进、守正创新，不断进行实践探索和理论创新，不断深化对党的自我革命的规律性认识，把党的自我革命的思路举措搞得更加严密，把每条战线、每个环节的自我革命抓具体、抓深入.
“Xi Jinping emphasised that on the new journey of the anti-corruption struggle, it is essential to continue efforts and advance comprehensively in eradicating the soil and conditions that give rise to corruption. The general requirements are to adhere to the integrated promotion of the policy of ensuring that people do not dare to be corrupt, can not corrupt, and do not want to corrupt; deepen the efforts to address both the symptoms and root causes of corruption in a systematic manner, and continue to expand the depth and breadth of the fight against corruption; and prescribe targeted remedies, apply precise treatment, and adopt a combination of measures; in order to gradually reduce the recurrence of longstanding issues and prevent the spread of new problems, thereby promoting the normalisation and long-term effectiveness of corruption prevention and control.” 习近平强调，新征程反腐败斗争，必须在铲除腐败问题产生的土壤和条件上持续发力、纵深推进。总的要求是，坚持一体推进不敢腐、不能腐、不想腐，深化标本兼治、系统施治，不断拓展反腐败斗争深度广度，对症下药、精准施治、多措并举，让反复发作的老问题逐渐减少，让新出现的问题难以蔓延，推动防范和治理腐败问题常态化、长效化.
Next, Xi emphasised that “it is necessary to strengthen the Party’s centralised and unified leadership in the fight against corruption. Party committees at all levels must effectively strengthen leadership over the entire process of the anti-corruption struggle, resolutely support the investigation and handling of corruption cases, and work hard to rectify problems. As specialised organs, the discipline inspection and supervisory commissions must take the initiative to take responsibility, effectively assist Party committees in organising and coordinating anti-corruption efforts, and integrating the full spectrum of anti-corruption forces. All functional departments should persist in efficient collaboration, conscientiously translating the anti-corruption decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee into concrete actions.” 习近平指出，要加强党对反腐败斗争的集中统一领导。各级党委要切实强化对反腐败斗争全过程领导，坚决支持查办腐败案件，动真碰硬抓好问题整改。纪委监委作为专责机关，要更加主动担起责任，有力有效协助党委组织协调反腐败工作，整合反腐败全链条力量。各职能部门要坚持高效协同，自觉把党中央反腐败的决策部署转化为具体行动.
“Xi Jinping emphasised the need to continue maintaining a high-pressure posture when it comes to punishing corruption. Faced with a still severe and complex situation, the fight against corruption must never look back, never slacken, and never show mercy; forever maintaining the determination to charge ahead/sound the trumpet. It is essential to consistently focus on the ‘seven types of conduct’ (七个有之) problems, make severely punishing corruption involving political and business collusion the top priority, resolutely crack down on profit-seeking behaviours relying by power and resolutely prevent the infiltration of interest groups and powerful groups into the political sphere. Deepen the anti-corruption crackdown in sectors with concentration of power, those that are capital-intensive and those that are resource-rich, such as finance, state-owned enterprises, energy, medicine and infrastructure projects, and eliminate hidden risks. Punish the ‘corruption of flies and ants’ to ensure that the masses enjoy a greater sense of gain.” 习近平强调，要持续保持惩治腐败高压态势。面对依然严峻复杂的形势，反腐败绝对不能回头、不能松懈、不能慈悲，必须永远吹冲锋号。要持续盯住“七个有之”问题，把严惩政商勾连的腐败作为攻坚战重中之重，坚决打击以权力为依托的资本逐利行为，坚决防止各种利益集团、权势团体向政治领域渗透。深化整治金融、国企、能源、医药和基建工程等权力集中、资金密集、资源富集领域的腐败，清理风险隐患。惩治“蝇贪蚁腐”，让群众有更多获得感.
“Xi Jinping pointed out that it is necessary to deepen reforms in order to eliminate the breeding ground for and spread of corruption. The essence of corruption is the abuse of power. It is necessary to seize key powers such as policy-making, decision-making, approval and supervision, focus on key areas, deepen the reform of institutional mechanisms, accelerate the construction of governance mechanisms in emerging areas, improve the power allocation and operational restraint mechanisms, further plug institutional loopholes, regulate discretionary powers, and reduce opportunities for rent-seeking. It is necessary to establish a linkage mechanism for early warning and punishment of corruption, strengthen the dynamic monitoring of hidden integrity risks, and strengthen the rapid handling of new types of corruption and hidden forms of corruption.” 习近平指出，要深化改革阻断腐败滋生蔓延。腐败的本质是权力滥用。要抓住定政策、作决策、审批监管等关键权力，聚焦重点领域深化体制机制改革，加快新兴领域治理机制建设，完善权力配置和运行制约机制，进一步堵塞制度漏洞，规范自由裁量权，减少设租寻租机会。要建立腐败预警惩治联动机制，加强廉洁风险隐患动态监测，强化对新型腐败和隐性腐败的快速处置.
He then talked about the need to further improve anti-corruption laws and regulations. In this, he mentions three things:
to improve “basic laws and regulations” to ensure that people do not dare, cannot be and do not desire to be corrupt and improve and strengthen the support systems for supervising the top leaders and the leadership teams.
continue to advance national anti-corruption legislation, revise the Supervision Law in keeping with the times, and use the opportunity to study and implement the newly-revised disciplinary regulations to launch a centralised disciplinary education throughout the Party
strengthen supervision and inspection of the implementation of key laws and regulations to ensure integrated compliance and implementation.
习近平强调，要进一步健全反腐败法规制度。围绕一体推进不敢腐、不能腐、不想腐等完善基础性法规制度，健全加强对“一把手”和领导班子监督配套制度。持续推进反腐败国家立法，与时俱进修改监察法，以学习贯彻新修订的纪律处分条例为契机，在全党开展一次集中性纪律教育。加强重点法规制度执行情况监督检查，确保一体遵循、一体执行.
He then said that it was necessary to intensify the punishment for bribery. “Thoroughly investigate and deal with those individuals who consistently involve officials in corrupt practices, the perpetrators of bribery who endanger one side. Publicise typical cases to set a positive example and serve as a deterrent. Increase efforts to recover and rectify gains obtained through bribery and illicit means.” 习近平指出，要加大对行贿行为惩治力度。严肃查处那些老是拉干部下水、危害一方的行贿人，通报典型案例，以正视听、以儆效尤。加大对行贿所获不正当利益的追缴和纠正力度.
“Xi Jinping emphasised that we must persist in purifying the political ecology. Persist in both removing impurities and promoting purity, strictly enforce political discipline and rules, maintain the seriousness of political life within the Party, break ‘unwritten/hidden rules’, establish ‘clear norms/practices’, resolutely prevent the establishment of ‘cliques’, ‘worship of higher-ups/powerful’ (拜码头) and establishing ‘connections with high-ranking officials for personal gain’ (搭天线), effectively crack down on all kinds of political swindlers and strictly prevent the introduction of the principle of exchanging favours into the Party. Rectify the improper practices in personnel selection and appointment, promote the establishment of clear and straightforward camaraderie and well-regulated relationships between superiors and subordinates, and foster a clean and beautiful political ecology.” 习近平强调，要持之以恒净化政治生态。坚持激浊和扬清并举，严明政治纪律和政治规矩，严肃党内政治生活，破“潜规则”，立“明规矩”，坚决防止搞“小圈子”、“拜码头”、“搭天线”，有力打击各种政治骗子，严格防止把商品交换原则带到党内。坚持不懈整治选人用人上的不正之风，推动形成清清爽爽的同志关系、规规矩矩的上下级关系，促进政治生态山清水秀.
In the next paragraph, Xi talks about promoting a culture of integrity. In this context, he talks about carrying out “in-depth education on Party spirit, work style, and discipline, and emphasises ideals and beliefs such that people regard the “abuse of power for personal gain and corruption as a great shame.” He also warns “leading cadres to strictly manage relatives and children.” The final point he makes is about the discipline inspection cadres needing to maintain integrity in carrying out their work.
The report ends with Li Xi praising Xi Jinping’s speech and calling for adherence to it. It also says that Li presented the CCDI’s work report on Monday during the plenary session.
Next, there’s a report on a seminar held in Beijing to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the birth of Gan Ku, late vice chairman of the eighth NPCSC. The report says that “Gan is celebrated as an excellent CPC member, a time-tested and steadfast communist soldier, and an outstanding descendant of the Zhuang ethnic group.” At the seminar, Li Hongzhong delivered a speech. The full speech is available on Page 6, if you are interested.
The first part of the speech talks about Gan Ku’s life and journey. Then Li calls on cadres to “learn from Gan Ku’s strong Party spirit of firm belief and wholehearted devotion to the Party.” He adds:
“Today, as we learn from Comrade Gan Ku, it is important to adhere to our original mission, strengthen our political character, truly love the Party, always be concerned about the Party, resolutely protect the Party, vigorously promote its development, and always maintain the political nature of loyalty to the Party. We must deeply understand the decisive significance of the ‘two establishments’, enhance the four consciousnesses, strengthen the ‘four confidences’, and achieve the two safeguards; continuously improve political judgement, understanding, and execution; strictly adhere to the Party's political discipline and rules, and always maintain a high degree of alignment with the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core in terms of political position, direction, principles, and path. We should strengthen our ideals and beliefs, persistently adhere to and enrich ourselves with Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, continually strengthen our political identification, ideological identification, theoretical identification, and emotional identification with the Party's innovative theories; build a solid foundation of faith, replenish spiritual calcium, stabilise the rudder of thought, and consciously be a firm believer and faithful practitioner of the lofty ideals of communism and the common ideals of socialism with Chinese characteristics.” 今天，我们学习甘苦同志，就是要坚守初心使命，强化政治品格，真心爱党、时刻忧党、坚定护党、全力兴党，永葆对党忠诚的政治本色。我们要深刻领悟“两个确立”的决定性意义，增强“四个意识”、坚定“四个自信”、做到“两个维护”，不断提高政治判断力、政治领悟力、政治执行力，严守党的政治纪律和政治规矩，始终在政治立场、政治方向、政治原则、政治道路上同以习近平同志为核心的党中央保持高度一致。要坚定理想信念，坚持不懈以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想凝心铸魂，不断增强对党的创新理论的政治认同、思想认同、理论认同、情感认同，筑牢信仰之基、补足精神之钙、把稳思想之舵，自觉做共产主义远大理想和中国特色社会主义共同理想的坚定信仰者和忠实实践者。
Other points of learning from Gan Ku’s life that he highlighted were:
Caring and working for the masses, i.e., connecting with the people and taking tangible steps to boost performance legitimacy.
Learn from his spirit of “relentless struggle,” i.e., don’t think that becoming an official is going to be cushy. Also, be mindful of the 国之大者 (matters of national/strategic importance); focus on the central tasks of the Party in the new era and on the new journey, keep in mind and practise the ‘three musts’, strengthen historical confidence and historical initiative and always maintain the mindset and attitude of struggle of forging ahead, daring to be the first, and facing difficulties head on… 今天，我们学习甘苦同志，就是要胸怀“国之大者”，紧紧围绕新时代新征程党的中心任务，牢记和践行“三个务必”，坚定历史自信，增强历史主动，始终保持锐意进取、敢为人先、迎难而上的精神状态和奋斗姿态，鼓足干事创业的精气神，积极担当作为、敢于善于斗争，不断提高推动高质量发展本领、服务群众本领、防范化解风险本领，跑好历史交给的这一棒，在新征程上作出无负时代、无负历史、无负人民的业绩.
Maintain a pragmatic work style, i.e., have a correct view of power and political achievements; proceed from reality, etc.
Finally, learn from his attitude of being strict with himself and being honest and dedicated to the public. “Throughout his life, he held himself to high standards, imposing strict requirements on his relatives and children. He did not use his authority for personal gain and did not seek special privileges.” 他一生严于律己，严格要求亲属和子女，不以权谋私，不搞特殊化.
Third, there’s a report based on the discussion at Xinhua’s China Economic Roundtable. This one deals with foreign investment in China and trade. Some useful points to note.
Zhu Bing, director of the Ministry of Commerce's department of foreign investment administration, said that there were three reasons for foreign investment declining year on year in 2023, although it was still over the 1 trillion RMB mark.
First, the impact of the pandemic has not subsided. The pandemic blocked off-line inspections and exchanges and affected the investment decisions of multinational companies.
Second, the impact of geopolitical changes on the transnational flow of capital
Third, there has been an overall contraction of global cross-border investment along with intensifying international competition for investment, causing certain diversion effects on a macro level.
朱冰说，一是新冠疫情全球大流行造成的冲击和影响还未消退，疫情阻断了线下考察交流，影响跨国公司投资决策，由于跨国公司投资决策周期较长，导致数据出现滞后；二是受地缘政治影响，跨国资本流动出现一定波动；三是全球跨国投资规模整体萎缩，国际引资竞争加剧，宏观上造成一定的分流影响.
For instance, as per UNCTAD, the scale of global cross-border direct investment in 2022 fell by 12.4% year-on-year to $1.3 trillion. This represented only about 60% of the historical highs seen in 2015 and 2016 when FDI surpassed $2 trillion in each year. In 2023, there has still been considerable pressure. According to UNCTAD’s statistics, countries implemented as many as 102 investment incentive policies in 2022, representing an increase of over 50% compared to the previous year. 联合国贸发会议（UNCTAD）报告显示，2022年全球跨国直接投资规模同比下降12.4%至1.3万亿美元，仅为历史高点（2015年、2016年均突破2万亿美元）的约六成，2023年仍面临比较大压力。据UNCTAD统计，2022年各国出台的投资激励政策多达102项，同比增加50%以上.
Then we get some positive data with regard to China:
In the first 11 months of 2023, 48,078 new foreign-invested enterprises were established in China, a year-on-year increase of 36.2%. The proportion of investment in high-tech industries accounted for 37.2% of overall investment, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the full-year level in 2022…currently, the Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone has attracted more than 400 regional headquarters of multinational enterprises and more than 250 foreign-funded R&D centers, which reflects the positive progress made in high-level opening up to the outside world. 2023年前11个月，我国新设立外商投资企业48078家，同比增长36.2%。高技术产业引资规模占比为37.2%，比2022年全年水平提升了1.1个百分点。赵宇刚说，目前上海自贸试验区聚集跨国企业地区总部超400家，外资研发中心超250家，体现了高水平对外开放所取得的积极进展.
Zhang Wei, vice president of the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation under the Ministry of Commerce, offered a grim outlook for exports for 2024.
“Currently, global economic recovery is progressing slowly, and trade continue to be sluggish. According to the UNCTAD report, it is projected that in 2023, global trade in goods and services would have decreased by 4.5%, with a 7.5% decline in the trade of goods. The outlook for 2024 remains ‘highly uncertain and pessimistic overall’, with geopolitical tensions, worsening debt issues, commodity price fluctuations, declining demand in developed countries, and an increase in trade restrictions being the main influencing factors. ‘In such a situation, China's foreign trade has not only maintained overall stability but has also shown new growth points, demonstrating strong resilience and competitiveness’, said Zhang Wei.” 当前，全球经济复苏进展缓慢，经贸活动持续低迷。UNCTAD报告预测，2023年全球货物贸易和服务贸易额下降4.5%，其中，货物贸易额下降7.5%。2024年仍然“高度不确定且总体悲观”，地缘政治紧张、债务问题加剧、商品价格波动、发达国家需求下降、贸易限制措施增多已成为主要影响因素。“在这样的情况下，中国外贸不仅保持了总量的稳定，还出现了新的增长点，展现出非常强的韧性和竞争力。”张威说.
One more useful data point: “In 2023, the Ministry of Commerce launched the ‘Invest in China Year’ series of activities…In the first 11 months, more than 500 large foreign investment projects of more than US$100 million were added across the country.” 2023年，商务部创新开展“投资中国年”系列活动取得显著成效，前11个月，全国新增1亿美元以上外资大项目500多个.
Page 11: There’s an article informing that some key laws and rules come into force from January 1, 2024. These are:
The Administrative Reconsideration Law of the People's Republic of China
Patriotism Education Law
Regulations to protect minors in cyberspace
Page 17: On the international page, there is a report on University of Virginia students visiting Tsinghua University for the China-US youth table tennis exchange, the first such event held in China between the two countries since 2019.
Other Stories:
SCMP reports: “Pakistan Air Force (PAF) chief of staff Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Baber on January 2 said “the foundation” had been laid for its acquisition of the Chinese fifth-generation FC-31 Gyrfalcon stealth fighter aircraft in “the near future”. He did not specify how many Chinese jets PAF was buying and when, but some observers have speculated that up to 36 aircraft could be delivered by the end of the decade. Mustafa Hyder, executive director of the Pakistan-China Institute in Islamabad, said Pakistan’s planned acquisition of the FC-31 Gyrfalcon showed its “increasing military and defence cooperation” with China in South Asia against “common adversary India”. It is also reflective of their “joint strategy and synergy to neutralise the threat emanating from India”, he added. The deal would further put pressure on India to move towards the acquisition of the F-35s, even as it accelerates its Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft programme to develop and deploy a stealth combat aircraft by 2032, said Harsh V. Pant, a professor of international relations at the India Institute of King’s College London.”
Another report informs: “Falling home prices and fears about job prospects will deter Chinese consumers from freely spending on goods such as clothes and home appliances, weighing on the nation’s retail sales growth, according to UBS. Retail sales are expected to climb 5.5 per cent in 2024, one percentage point lower than the estimated 6.5 per cent rise last year, according to the Swiss bank’s estimates. ‘A drop in home prices will have a negative psychological impact on consumers since they feel their net worth has shrunk,’ Christine Peng, a UBS analyst, said at a media briefing in Shanghai on Monday. ‘As a result, consumers are reluctant to tap their bank savings to spend’...UBS’s Peng said consumers’ heightened fears about salary cuts and job security have dragged down retail sales growth in the world’s second-largest economy, which is expected to expand 4.4 per cent this year, compared with estimates of 5.2 per cent in 2023. Retail spending in China jumped 7.2 per cent year on year to 42.8 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of 2023, according to the National Statistics Bureau.” UBS’ GDP forecast for China for 2024 is 4.4%. This report has a detailed breakdown on what the bank expects from the Chinese economy in 2024.
FT reports: China accuses foreign consultant of spying for MI6: “The Ministry of State Security said on Monday that the UK’s Secret Intelligence Service, known as MI6, instructed the head of a foreign consultancy to enter China multiple times since 2015, gather information and help recruit people. The alleged spy, surnamed Huang, was from a ‘third country’, the statement said.”
Bloomberg reports: China's invasion of Taiwan to cost around $10 trn, nearly 10% of global GDP. I am sharing some graphs from the report below:
