Xi's South Africa Visit - Key Deals Signed - No Endorsement of GDI, GSI & GCI in Joint Statement - Xi's Cold War Warning at BRICS Forum - Wang Yiming on China's Economic Situation

Here are the key reports and articles that I found noteworthy from the People’s Daily’s edition on Wednesday, August 23, 2023.

Page 1: The front page today is all about Xi Jinping’s visit to South Africa. At the top of the page is a brief report on Xi’s arrival in South Africa. Xinhua reports:

“South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, together with South Africa's International Relations and Cooperation Minister Naledi Pandor, and Nkosazana Clarice Dlamini-Zuma, minister in the Presidency for Women, Youth and Persons with Disabilities, warmly greeted Xi at the OR Tambo International Airport of Johannesburg. A group of South African women presented Xi with flowers, honor guards saluted him, and people dressed in South African traditional costumes performed dances. President Ramaphosa warmly welcomed Xi for his state visit to South Africa.” 

In a brief speech at the airport, Xi spoke about the importance of the visit and the BRICS meeting.

Next is the substantive report on the talks between Xi and Ramaphosa at the Presidential Palace in Pretoria. The official Chinese readout says that the two sides “agreed to work together to take the China-South Africa comprehensive strategic partnership to new heights and build a high-quality China-South Africa community with a shared future.”

Xi made four proposals, as per the report:

• First, China and South Africa should be strategic partners with a high degree of mutual trust. Comradeship and brotherhood are inherent to the bilateral relationship. The two sides need to step up exchange and cooperation between legislatures, political parties, the military and subnational governments, and continue to support each other on issues concerning their respective core interests and key concerns. China is ready to step up exchanges between political parties and cooperation on training, and will do its best to help the African National Congress develop the African Leadership Academy. 

• Second, China and South Africa should be development partners making progress together. Mutual benefits and win-win are defining features of their cooperation. With a focus on Belt and Road cooperation, implementation of the nine programs of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation as well as the 10-Year Strategic Program of Cooperation, the two sides need to consolidate cooperation in areas of strength and foster new growth points for cooperation. China will expand imports of South African products, and encourage more Chinese companies to invest and do business in South Africa. Poverty reduction, agricultural development and rural revitalization are an important part of Chinese modernization. China is ready to enhance experience sharing with South Africa and help implement the program of demonstration village for poverty reduction.

• Third, China and South Africa should be friendly partners enjoying mutual understanding. Close ties between the two peoples are a vivid example of amity between the two countries. China is ready to enhance the role of the China & Africa (South Africa) Technical and Vocational Education Cooperation Alliance, the Future of Africa, a project for China-Africa cooperation for vocational education, and other mechanisms, so as to strengthen exchange and cooperation with South Africa on vocational education and youth employment, and help the country cultivate all sorts of talent urgently needed for economic and social development. The two sides need to ramp up cooperation on tourism, support closer technological cooperation and joint research by scientific research institutions and businesses, and deliver more benefits of cooperation to the two peoples.

• Fourth, China and South Africa should be global partners with a commitment to justice. Independence is a principle upheld by both countries. China supports South Africa in playing a bigger role in international and regional affairs, and is ready to work with South Africa and other developing countries to jointly implement the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, and the Global Civilization Initiative, practice true multilateralism, increase the representation and voice of the Global South in global governance, bolster coordination on climate change, food security and the U.N. 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, and safeguard the shared interests and development space of developing countries.

The report mentions Xi’s comments on the BRICS summit, without saying anything particularly significant. It adds: “President Xi Jinping emphasized that China and Africa have always been a community with a shared future. As the world is undergoing transformation and turbulence, China and Africa need solidarity and cooperation more than ever. China firmly supports African countries in seeking strength through unity, firmly supports the African Union in joining the G20, and firmly supports Africa in promoting its industrialization and agricultural modernization. He looks forward to co-hosting the China-Africa Leaders’ Dialogue with President Ramaphosa to draw up a new blueprint together with other participating African leaders for China-Africa unity and cooperation and to take the China-South Africa community with a shared future to a higher level.”

As per the readout, Ramaphosa made the following points:

• “China is a true friend, brother, and partner of South Africa. Both South Africa and China are pursuing national development and prosperity, and hold the same or similar positions on a number of major international affairs.” 

• “South Africa has been committed to the one-China principle.” (Just to note: The joint statement says policy.)

• “South Africa commends the huge development feats achieved by the Chinese people under the leadership of the Communist Party of China. It is ready to develop closer exchanges between political parties, deepen experience sharing on the governance of political parties and countries, carry out pilot programs for poverty reduction with Chinese features, and expand cooperation on trade, investment, energy, infrastructure, manufacturing, and science and technology.”

• “South Africa and other countries in the Global South all hope to strengthen solidarity and cooperation with China to better meet challenges together, and promote an international order that is more egalitarian, just and equitable. He thanked China for supporting South Africa in hosting a successful BRICS Summit. South Africa is ready to work with other BRICS countries to resolutely uphold multilateralism, advance reform of the global governance system, and safeguard the common interests of the developing countries.”

After the talks, Ramaphosa bestowed upon Xi the Order of South Africa, the highest medal and honor of South Africa for the heads of state of friendly countries. The two presidents witnessed the signing of bilateral cooperation documents on Belt and Road cooperation, infrastructure, new energy, agricultural products, special economic zone, industrial park, blue economy, technological innovation and higher education. The entire list of documents is published on Page 2.

The two sides issued a Joint Statement. The full English version of the joint statement is available on the MoFA website. Key excerpts below:

• “South Africa pledged continuous support for China on issues concerning its core interests and major concerns. South Africa reaffirmed its commitment to the one-China policy. China reiterates its respect and support for South Africa’s efforts to safeguard its national interests and social economic development and to better the livelihoods of its citizens.”

• “The two sides agreed that since its inception ten years ago, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a useful, mutually beneficial platform for international cooperation. The two sides will consider working towards bilateral cooperation and synergy within the BRI and the Economic Reconstruction and Recovery Plan (ERRP) frameworks. Both sides pledged to continue to seek the strengthening of cooperation in key areas such as infrastructure and logistics; trade and investment;  manufacturing; agro-processing; energy and resources; the financial sector; the digital economy; science and technology, and green development.”

• “The two sides stand ready to further identify specific needs in terms of bilateral cooperation within the China-South Africa Joint Working Group (JWG) and the Joint Economic and Trade Committee (JETC),  improve the current trade structure, address market access, enhance two-way investment, and to keep industrial and supply chains stable and secure. The two sides encouraged their respective business communities to explore creative ways further to expand two-way trade, increase their manufacturing bases within proximity of the relevant source of raw materials, improve the export of value-added goods from South Africa to China, increase the volume of export of high-quality South African agricultural exports to China and increase new investments in the manufacturing and assembly sector, the transfer of skills and technology, and to enhance local employment.”

• “China undertook to continue to support South Africa in addressing its energy security challenges, both in respect of generation and transmission infrastructure, and to actively participate in the South Africa Investment Conferences and other such activities hosted by South Africa. South Africa will actively participate in the China International Import Expo, the China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo and support trade missions between the two countries. South Africa further welcomed the identification of South Africa amongst the top 20 countries for group tourism promotion by Chinese tourists. In this regard, South Africa supports the increase in the frequency of direct flights between South Africa and China.”

• “The two sides reaffirmed the need to implement and further strengthen social exchanges and cooperation on poverty alleviation strategies; culture; women; youth; education; sport; health; the media; tourism; and other fields at the sub-national level to deepen mutual understanding and friendship, and to consolidate the social foundation of the bilateral relationship.”

• They agreed to “work together for a successful outcome of the 28th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC COP28) in the United Arab Emirates in December 2023.”

• “The two sides agreed to continue supporting the development of BRICS in all three pillars of cooperation and to collaborate with all BRICS members to deepen practical cooperation in various fields and achieve progress in terms of BRICS membership expansion. China supports South Africa as BRICS Chair this year and the outreach to Africa and the Global South and wishes the 15th BRICS Summit success.”

• “The two sides agreed to enhance cooperation in international affairs and multilateral institutions, jointly uphold the UN-centred global system, an equitable international order underpinned by international law, and the basic norms governing international relations, based on the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, including to uphold the rights and interests of developing countries jointly and respect for national sovereignty and territorial integrity. South Africa has taken note of the efforts taken by China to promote and foster relations between states predicated on inclusive multilateralism and applauded China for its leadership role in promoting peaceful global cooperation. China expressed its support for a more significant role for South Africa in the United Nations, the G20 and other multilateral mechanisms. China supports South Africa’s Presidency of the G20 in 2025. The two sides further agreed that dialogue and negotiation is the only viable option for resolving the Ukraine conflict, and they will continue to promote talks for peace and play a constructive role in the political settlement of the issue. Furthermore, China welcomed Africa’s recent Ukraine-Russia peace mission.”

(Comment: It’s worth noting that the joint statement says nothing about GDI, GSI and GCI and neither did Ramaphosa reference them in the remarks that have been reported.)

Anyway, also on the front page is a report on Xi and Ramaphosa’s engagement with the press. Xinhua reports:

• “Xi said he and Ramaphosa agreed that China and South Africa should be strategic partners with high mutual trust, urging the two sides to keep the good momentum of high-level exchanges, strengthen communication and cooperation in various fields, continue to deepen political mutual trust, enhance communication in the experience of state governance, and continue to support each other on issues of core interests and major concern. They agreed that the mutually beneficial and pragmatic cooperation between China and South Africa has achieved fruitful results, and both sides should be development partners for common progress, he noted.”

• “Xi said the two sides need to strengthen the alignment of development strategies, implement the nine programs put forward at the China-Africa Cooperation Forum and the 10 Years Strategic Programme on Cooperation between China and South Africa (2020-2029), solidify the cooperation in areas of strength, and foster new growth points for cooperation. China is ready to import more quality products from South Africa and will continue to encourage Chinese enterprises to invest and do business in South Africa, he noted, adding that the two sides will deepen bilateral cooperation in such areas as electric power, new energy as well as scientific and technological innovation.”

• “Xi said the two leaders agreed that as major developing countries and emerging economies with important influence, China and South Africa need to be global partners in safeguarding justice. He urged the two sides to strengthen strategic coordination, practice true multilateralism and work to increase the representation and voice of the Global South countries in global governance.”

• “China firmly supports African integration, backs the African Union to make substantial progress this year in joining the Group of 20, and encourages South Africa to play a bigger role in international and regional affairs. Noting that the BRICS summit is about to open, Xi pointed out that under the current circumstance, this summit bears great significance for BRICS countries to solidify unity and cooperation, and promote the BRICS cooperative mechanism to develop and grow further…Xi said that he will co-chair with Ramaphosa the China-Africa Leaders' Dialogue on Thursday, which is the first face-to-face group meeting between Chinese and African leaders since the COVID-19 pandemic, expressing his expectation to draw a new blueprint for China-Africa unity and cooperation with other African leaders, and inject fresh and strong vitality into the development of the China-Africa comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership.”

Page 2: Much of what is on the page, I have covered above. The only other bit to note is Xi’s speech (English version) at the closing ceremony of the BRICS business forum. Xi said:

“Right now, changes in the world, in our times and in history are unfolding in ways like never before, bringing human society to a critical juncture. Should we pursue cooperation and integration, or just succumb to division and confrontation? Should we work together to maintain peace and stability, or just sleepwalk into the abyss of a new Cold War? Should we embrace prosperity, openness and inclusiveness, or allow hegemonic and bullying acts to throw us into depression? Should we deepen mutual trust through exchanges and mutual learning, or allow hubris and prejudice to blind conscience? The course of history will be shaped by the choices we make…We humankind have achieved notable economic development and social progress over the past decades, and that is because we have drawn lessons from the two world wars and the Cold War, followed the historical trend of economic globalization, and embarked on the right path of openness and development for win-win cooperation. Our world today has become a community with a shared future in which we all share a huge stake of survival. What people in various countries long for is definitely not a new Cold War or a small exclusive bloc; what they want is an open, inclusive, clean and beautiful world that enjoys enduring peace, universal security and common prosperity. Such is the logic of historical advance and the trend of our times.”

He then (re-)pitched the idea of building a community with a shared future for mankind, making the following points:

• “Many emerging markets and developing countries (EMDCs) have come to what they are today after shaking off the yoke of colonialism. With perseverance, hard work and huge sacrifices, we succeeded in gaining independence and have been exploring development paths suited to our national conditions. Everything we do is to deliver better lives to our people. But some country, obsessed with maintaining its hegemony, has gone out of its way to cripple the EMDCs. Whoever is developing fast becomes its target of containment; whoever is catching up becomes its target of obstruction. But this is futile, as I have said more than once that blowing out others’ lamp will not bring light to oneself. Every country has the right to development, and the people in every country have the freedom to pursue a happy life. With that in mind, I have proposed the Global Development Initiative…”

• “Recent years have seen a turbulent world; many countries and regions are plagued by wars and conflicts and many people are displaced. Members of the international community share the pressing hope to eradicate the root cause of conflicts and wars, and find a fundamental way to realize enduring peace and security globally. Facts have shown that any attempt to keep enlarging a military alliance, expand one’s own sphere of influence or squeeze other countries’ buffer of security can only create security predicament and insecurity for all countries. Only a commitment to a new vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security can lead to universal security. Last year, I put forward the Global Security Initiative, and it has gained support from over 100 countries and international organizations. China stands ready to jointly pursue this initiative with all others.”

• “Human civilization is colorful by nature. It is precisely because of their differences in history, culture and system that all countries need to interact with one another, learn from each other, and advance together. Deliberately creating division with the assertion of ‘democracy versus authoritarianism’ and ‘liberalism versus autocracy’ can only split the world and lead to clash of civilizations. I have put forward the Global Civilization Initiative, calling for promoting diversity of global civilizations, the common values of humanity, and people-to-people and cultural exchanges and cooperation. China welcomes all other countries to get involved in cooperation under this initiative.

On BRICS, he said:

“Whatever resistance there may be, BRICS, a positive and stable force for good, will continue to grow. We will forge stronger BRICS strategic partnership, expand the ‘BRICS Plus’ model, actively advance membership expansion, deepen solidarity and cooperation with other EMDCs, promote global multipolarity and greater democracy in international relations, and help make the international order more just and equitable. The gathering between BRICS countries and more than 50 other countries in South Africa today is not an exercise of asking countries to take sides, nor an exercise of creating bloc confrontation. Rather, it is an endeavor to expand the architecture of peace and development. I am glad to note that over 20 countries are knocking on the door of BRICS. China hopes to see more joining the BRICS cooperation mechanism.”

Towards the end, he continued to pitch China as a developing country and member of the Global South: “China has resolutely upheld the common interests of developing countries and worked to increase the representation and voice of EMDCs in global affairs. Hegemonism is not in China’s DNA; nor does China have any motivation to engage in major-power competition. China stands firmly on the right side of history, and believes that a just cause should be pursued for the common good.”

He added: “Chinese modernization has created a new form of human advancement and presented a new future of modernization. We hope that other developing countries can draw on the outstanding achievements of human civilization and find their own paths to modernization in keeping with their national conditions.”

He then expressed confidence in China’s economic potential and added:

“China will remain an important opportunity for the world’s development. Our door is wide open to anyone who wants to engage in cooperation with us. As a supersize economy, China will remain firm in advancing high-standard opening-up. We will continue to expand market access, cut the negative list for foreign investment, and further open the modern services sector. We will steadily improve the business environment, provide national treatment to foreign-invested enterprises, foster a world-class, market-oriented business environment governed by a sound legal framework, and build a globally-oriented network of high-standard free trade areas. We will continue to advance ecological conservation, accelerate the building of a Beautiful China, actively and prudently move toward carbon peak and carbon neutrality, and pursue all-round green transition in economic and social development.”

Finally, there’s a report informing about a ceremony in Abuja, Nigeria, for the release of the Hausa edition of Up and Out of Poverty, a compilation of Xi’s major speeches on poverty alleviation.

Page 3: There’s a Zhong Sheng commentary on the page on the decision by the six-nation Central American Parliament to expel Taiwan as a permanent observer and replace it with the PRC. Before getting to the commentary, let’s look at how official PRC organs responded to the development.

Spokesperson with the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National People's Congress “expressed high appreciation for the recent move by the Central American Parliament.” 

“Spokesperson Xu Dong said it is a right choice that accords with the trend of history and our times. Xu said that there is but one China in the world, and Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's territory. The Government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) is the sole legal government representing the whole of China. The PRC's sovereignty over Taiwan has been clearly recognized by the Cairo Declaration, the Potsdam Proclamation and United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758. Taiwan has no other status in international law than being part of China, the spokesperson said, adding that the island is not entitled to join any international organization whose membership is confined to sovereign states. The just move of the Parlacen on the Taiwan-related issue has amply illustrated that upholding the one-China principle serves the greater good of international relations, and accords with the will of the people and the irresistible trend of the times, Xu said. It fully demonstrates the international community's universal and firm commitment to the one-China principle, which is unshakable and unassailable, said the spokesperson, adding that it once again proves that any attempt to create "two Chinas" or "one China, one Taiwan" is bound to fail. Xu expressed a willingness to establish and enhance friendly exchanges and cooperation with the Parlacen on the basis of the one-China principle. He pledged efforts to further promote exchanges and cooperation with the parliaments of relevant Central American countries, and to make fresh contributions to boosting bilateral relations and better benefitting the people of both sides.”

The State Council Taiwan Affairs Office “expressed appreciation”. Zhu Fenglian said that this “has again proven that the attempts by Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party authorities to solicit external support for ‘Taiwan independence’ are doomed to fail.”

Now, the Zhong Sheng commentary repeats a lot of this official line. The commentary talks about the one-China principle being the “general consensus of the international community and a recognized basic norm of international relations.” 

It adds that “apart from being a part of China, Taiwan Province has no other status in international law and has no right to join international organisations that only sovereign countries can join. In recent years, Panama, Dominica, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras and other Central American countries have chosen to establish or resume diplomatic relations with China, fully demonstrating that the one-China principle has become a broad consensus in Central America.” 台湾除了作为中国的一部分，没有其他国际法地位，无权加入只有主权国家能够加入的国际组织。近年来，巴拿马、多米尼加、萨尔瓦多、尼加拉瓜、洪都拉斯等中美洲国家纷纷选择同中国建交或复交，充分说明一个中国原则在中美洲地区已成为广泛共识.

It adds that the decision by the Central American Parliament to remove Taiwan’s observer status “conforms to the general trend of establishing or restoring diplomatic relations between countries in the region and China, and conforms to the expectations of people in the region to strengthen cooperation with China.” 作为由中美洲地区主权国家组成的议会组织，中美洲议会决定取消台湾地区所谓“立法院”“常驻观察员”地位、接纳中国全国人大为常驻观察员，顺应地区国家与中国建立或恢复外交关系的大势，顺应地区国家人民加强与中国合作的期待.

The next paragraph talks about how recognising the one-China principle has brought “tangible benefits” to countries in the region. Thereafter, the article argues:

“Not long ago, the US House of Representatives passed a so-called Taiwan International Solidarity Act, claiming that the UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 ‘only recognizes the government of the People's Republic of China as China's sole legal representative in the United Nations, but does not address the issue of Taiwan's representation in the United Nations’, nor did it take a stand on the relationship between People's Republic of China and Taiwan. Such an argument wantonly distorts the resolutions of the UN General Assembly, and is a despicable trick of the US to engage in public opinion fraud on the Taiwan issue. It is reported that after the motion of the Central American Parliament was put forward, some American politicians tried to smear China under the guise of ‘democracy’ and put pressure on the Central American Parliament. Taiwan’s DPP authorities also parrotted those lines, sought to obscure facts/mislead discourse and even used offensive language towards countries concerned in Central America. Faced with the obstruction and pressure from American politicians and DPP authorities, the Central American Parliament insisted on making the right choice, which fully demonstrates that the international community's general adherence to the one-China principle is unshakable and cannot be challenged, and any attempt to create ‘Two China's’ and ‘one China, one Taiwan’ will never succeed.” 不久前，美国国会众议院通过一项所谓“台湾国际团结法案”，声称联合国大会第2758号决议“仅承认中华人民共和国政府是中国在联合国的唯一合法代表，但没有涉及台湾在联合国的代表权问题，也没有对中华人民共和国与台湾的关系采取立场”。这种论调肆意歪曲联合国大会决议，是美方在台湾问题上搞舆论欺诈的卑劣伎俩。据报道，中美洲议会有关动议提出后，美国一些政客企图打着“民主”的幌子对中国妄加抹黑，向中美洲议会施压。台湾民进党当局也鹦鹉学舌，混淆视听，甚至对有关中美洲国家恶语相向。面对美国政客和民进党当局的阻拦施压，中美洲议会坚持作出正确选择，充分说明国际社会普遍坚持一个中国原则的格局不可撼动、不容挑战，任何制造“两个中国”“一中一台”的图谋都绝不会得逞.

The final paragraph says:

“Adhering to the one-China principle is international justice, the aspiration of the people and the trend of the times; no force can stop it. Among the members of the Central American Parliament, only Guatemala has not established diplomatic relations with China, and the calls for accepting the one-China principle in Guatemala are growing. It is believed that more and more countries in the world and members of the international community will recognize this general trend and make the right decision that conforms to the trend of the times.” 坚持一个中国原则是国际大义、人心所向、大势所趋，任何势力都无法阻挡。中美洲议会成员国中仅剩危地马拉未同中国建交，危国内接受一个中国原则的呼声日益高涨。相信世界上越来越多的国家、国际社会越来越多的成员将认清大势，作出符合时代潮流的正确决定.

Also on the page are a couple of foreign affairs related reports. 

First, Defense Minister Li Shangfu met with Ibrahim Nasser Mohamed Al Alawi, Commander of the Air Force and Air Defense of the UAE in Beijing. Xinhua reports:

“Li said that exchanges and cooperation between the two militaries have achieved gratifying results in various fields, thanks to efforts from the heads of state of the two countries to promote such exchanges and cooperation. Noting that the air forces of the two countries have carried out fruitful cooperation in recent years, Li said that China is willing to make joint efforts with the UAE to further deepen cooperation between the two militaries. Al Alawi said that the UAE is willing to strengthen cooperation with China in various areas to consolidate and promote greater development of the relations between the two air forces.”

Second, Zhao Leji and Li Hongzhong separately met with Márta Mátrai, deputy of the speaker of the Hungarian National Assembly, in Beijing. They discussed closer cooperation between the legislatures of the two countries.

Third, Vice President Han Zhang and Vice Premier He Lifeng separately met with Rustam Emomali, chairman of the National Assembly of Tajikistan, in Beijing. Xinhua’s report has Han saying: “China is ready to work with Tajikistan to act on the important consensus of the two heads of state, better synergize development strategies, expand pragmatic cooperation, deepen security cooperation, and intensify international coordination to maintain the strategic security and development interests of the two countries, and boost common prosperity.”

The report on the meeting with He Lifeng says that the two sides “exchanged views on expanding economic, trade and local-level cooperation under the framework of BRI.”

Finally, Hu Chunhua was sent to attend the 50th anniversary celebration dinner of the US-China Business Council. Nearly 400 representatives from Chinese and US political and business circles attended the event. Hu reportedly talked about China welcoming more American businesses to invest in the country. Anyway, reports inform that US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo is heading to China this weekend for a four-day visit. WSJ reports:

“High on the agenda in Beijing, officials and business consultants said, is the plan by the Biden administration to issue a final rule restricting exports of advanced semiconductors it put in place last year. Earlier this month, the administration unveiled a new measure to restrict Americans from investing in China’s advanced semiconductors and quantum computers sectors. Part of Raimondo’s message in Beijing is to explain that these controls are meant to protect U.S. national security—not as steps to hold China back or disentangle the two large economies, said White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan. ‘We are engaged in intense competition with the PRC,’ Sullivan told reporters Tuesday, referring to the People’s Republic of China. ‘But intense competition requires intense diplomacy to manage that competition so that it doesn’t tip over into conflict’...While in Beijing, Raimondo is expected to hold talks with her counterpart, Commerce Minister Wang Wentao, and to meet other officials involved in economic policy.”

Page 9: On the theory page, the lead article is by Wang Yiming, who is the Vice Chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges.

This is a really interesting piece that offers a diagnosis of China’s economic problems and basically reiterates the key messages that came from the July Politburo meeting. I think this is also important because the messaging doesn’t seem to have shifted after the Beidaihe retreat discussions. The Chinese leadership appears to be staying the course and signalling that the economic weakness will persist for a while. There is no major stimulus that seems to be on the cards, and neither are there any creative ideas/innovative policy suggestions on the table to drive up consumption.

In the first bit, Wang basically offers an optimistic view of the economy through selective data quoting and avoiding context.

He says that:

• The economy is doing well because H1 GDP growth was 5.5% year-on-year, 2.5 percentage points faster than last year's annual growth rate.

• Demand is doing better. “From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 7.3% year-on-year, and service retail sales increased by 20.3% year-on-year. Fixed asset investment continued to grow, with investment in infrastructure (excluding electricity, heat, gas, water production and supply) and manufacturing increasing by 6.8% and 5.7% respectively year-on-year. Major engineering projects have been accelerated, enhancing the supporting role of investment.”

• Agriculture, industrial production and service industries have all grown.

• From January to July, the average surveyed urban unemployment rate nationwide was 5.3%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous year. Household income is steadily increasing, with a real growth of 5.8% in per capita disposable income for urban residents in the first half of the year, surpassing GDP growth. Investment in people's livelihoods continues to increase, and the level of public services and social security keeps improving.

• The scale of China's net export of goods expanded, and the scale of foreign exchange reserves increased for two consecutive months. By the end of July, foreign exchange reserves had increased to over 3.2 trillion US dollars, and the international balance of payments remained stable. Overall, China's economy has stood out among the world's major economies this year.

He then says that amid a difficult global economic environment, China’s economy has shown resilience. Here’s the evidence offered:

“In the context of a difficult global economic recovery, persistent high levels of global inflation, prominent spillover effects from major economies tightening their monetary policies, and rising risks associated with unilateralism, protectionism, and geopolitics, China's economy has continued its upward trajectory. The underlying reasons for this sustained improvement lie in our commitment to promoting a shift in development mode, adjusting economic structures, and transitioning growth drivers. This approach has injected new momentum for economic development through advancements in high-quality development.” 在世界经济复苏步履艰难，全球通胀水平仍处高位，主要经济体收紧货币政策的外溢效应凸显，单边主义、保护主义和地缘政治等风险上升的背景下，我国经济持续回升向好，深层次原因是我们坚持推动发展方式转变、经济结构调整和增长动力转换，以高质量发展的新进展为经济发展注入了新的源头活水.

There has been continued progress in transitioning China's development model. The contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth increased, and the final consumption contribution rate reached 77.2% in the first half of the year, which is significantly higher than last year. The driving effect of innovation on economic development has been enhanced. Forward-looking, strategic, and systematic layouts for fundamental research have been strengthened, and significant progress has been made in establishing major scientific infrastructure and achieving localisation in key equipment, materials, and components. The synergy between green transformation and economic growth has gradually emerged. In the first half of the year, wind power and solar power generation increased by 16.0% and 7.4%, respectively, and the total export of ‘new three types’ of products i.e., electric manned vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and solar cells, increased by 61.6%. 发展方式持续推进。内需对经济增长的贡献率提高，上半年最终消费贡献率达到77.2%，明显高于去年。创新对经济发展的驱动作用增强。强化基础研究前瞻性、战略性、系统性布局，新建一批重大科学基础设施，关键设备、材料、零部件国产化攻关取得重要进展。绿色转型和经济增长的协同成效逐步显现，上半年风力、太阳能发电量同比分别增长16.0%、7.4%，电动载人汽车、锂离子蓄电池、太阳能电池等“新三样”产品合计出口增长61.6%.

Progress has been made in structural adjustment. The growth of the service industry has obviously accelerated. In the first half of the year, the added value of the service industry accounted for 56% of GDP; it contributed 66.1% to economic growth. The proportion of the manufacturing industry remained stable. In the first half of the year, the added value of the manufacturing industry accounted for 27.8% of the GDP, and the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry accounted for 32.3% of the added value of the industrial enterprises above the designated size. The investment structure was optimized. From January to July, investment in high-tech industries increased by 11.5% year-on-year, which was 8.1 percentage points faster than the growth rate of all investments. Major regional strategies and regional coordinated development strategies were accelerated, and agricultural and rural modernization and new urbanisation were accelerated. 结构调整取得进展。服务业增长明显加快，上半年服务业增加值占GDP比重达到56%，对经济增长贡献率达到66.1%。制造业比重保持稳定，上半年制造业增加值占GDP比重为27.8%，装备制造业增加值占规模以上工业增加值比重提高到32.3%。投资结构得到优化，1—7月份，高技术产业投资同比增长11.5%，快于全部投资增速8.1个百分点。区域重大战略和区域协调发展战略加快落实，农业农村现代化和新型城镇化加快推进.

“The shift in growth drivers is accelerating. New industries and new products are growing in momentum. In the first half of the year, the added value of aerospace equipment manufacturing industry, lithium-ion battery manufacturing and intelligent vehicle equipment manufacturing increased by 22.9%, 29.7% and 36.3%, respectively; the added value of information transmission, software and information technology services increased by 12.9%; and the output of new energy vehicles, solar cells and charging piles increased by 35.0%, 54.5% and 53.1%, respectively. New business formats are thriving, with new-generation information technology, artificial intelligence, and big data technologies permeating various sectors. The innovation and development of ‘5G+ Industrial Internet’ has entered the fast lane, and the breadth and depth of applications have been continuously expanded. New formats such as smart manufacturing, smart mines and smart ports have emerged, opening up new space for China's economic development.” 增长动能加快转换。新产业、新产品增势强劲，上半年规模以上航天器及设备制造业、锂离子电池制造业、智能车载设备制造业增加值分别增长22.9%、29.7%、36.3%，信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业增加值增长12.9%，新能源汽车、太阳能电池、充电桩产量分别增长35.0%、54.5%、53.1%。新业态发展活跃，新一代信息技术、人工智能、大数据等技术向各领域广泛渗透，“5G+工业互联网”创新发展进入快车道，应用的广度和深度不断拓展，智能制造、智慧矿山、智慧港口等新业态不断涌现，为我国经济发展拓展新空间.

He then offers the “correct” view on the difficulties and challenges facing China’s economy. 

At present, the global political and economic situation is complex and intricate, and China is in a critical period of economic recovery and industrial upgrading, and its economic operation is facing new difficulties and challenges:

• First, the external environment is complicated and severe. Global economic recovery is facing difficulties. Although the IMF’s latest forecast in July increased this year's global economic growth rate by 0.2 percentage points to 3.0% compared to the April forecast, it still remains below the 3.5% growth rate of the previous year and is significantly lower than the average annual growth rate of 3.8% from 2000 to 2019. The spillover effects of monetary policy tightening in developed countries like the United States continue to manifest, leading to currency devaluation, capital outflows, and debt risks in emerging markets and developing countries. The world economy and trade growth have slowed, intensifying downward pressure on China's exports. At the same time, the US and the West have escalated their containment and suppression of China, the Ukraine crisis has continued to ferment, and the geopolitical landscape has undergone profound adjustments, all of which have increased the uncertainty of the external environment. 

• Second, domestic demand is insufficient. The endogenous driving force for consumption growth needs to be strengthened. Affected by income expectations and consumer confidence, residents are more cautious in consumption, sales of bulk commodities have slowed down, and consumption of housing commodities has weakened. The growth rate of investment has slowed down, and the willingness of private investors to invest needs to be strengthened. Affected by insufficient demand, the downward pressure on prices is greater. 

• Third, some enterprises are facing operational difficulties. Affected by insufficient demand and falling prices, the operating pressure on enterprises has increased. Some enterprises are under increasing pressure to destock, and the motivation to expand investment is insufficient. In addition, there are still many hidden risks in the fields of real estate, local debt, and small and medium-sized financial institutions.

当前，世界政治经济形势错综复杂，我国正处在经济恢复和产业升级的关键期，经济运行面临新的困难挑战。一是外部环境复杂严峻。全球经济复苏步履艰难，虽然国际货币基金组织7月份的最新预测将今年全球经济增速较4月份的预测上调0.2个百分点至3.0%，但仍低于去年3.5%的增速，更远低于2000—2019年3.8%的年均增速。美国等发达国家货币政策紧缩的外溢效应持续显现，新兴市场和发展中国家面临货币贬值、资本外流和债务风险。世界经济和贸易增速放缓，增大了我国外贸出口下行压力。与此同时，美西方升级对我围堵打压，乌克兰危机持续发酵，地缘政治格局深刻调整，都增加了外部环境的不确定性。二是国内需求不足。消费增长内生动力有待增强。受收入预期和消费信心影响，居民消费较为谨慎，大宗商品销售放缓，居住类商品消费走弱。投资增速有所放缓，民间投资意愿有待增强。受需求不足影响，价格下行压力较大。三是一些企业经营困难。受需求不足、价格下行等方面影响，企业经营压力有所增加。一些企业去库存压力增大，扩大投资动力不足。此外，在房地产、地方债务、中小金融机构等领域风险隐患仍然较多。

“The difficulties and challenges facing China’s economy are the result of the interaction between changes in the external environment and insufficient domestic demand, cyclical factors such as the delayed impact of the pandemic, and structural problems faced by economic transformation and upgrading. It should be understood that transitioning from epidemic prevention and control, economic recovery will be a wave-like development and a tortuous process. It is impossible to recover in one day, and it is impossible to rise unilaterally. China's economy is like a vast ocean, always growing and strengthening amidst challenges. From the perspective of development trends, China’s economy has strong resilience, great potential, and sufficient vitality, and the fundamentals of long-term improvement have not changed. As long as we, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core, strengthen confidence, maintain determination, and work hard, the Chinese economy will surely overcome risks and challenges and reach new heights.” 我国经济运行面临的困难挑战，是外部环境变化和国内需求不足相互叠加、疫情滞后影响等周期性因素和经济转型升级面临的结构性问题相互作用的结果。应当认识到，疫情防控平稳转段后，经济恢复是一个波浪式发展、曲折式前进的过程，不可能一日修复，也不可能单边上升。中国经济是一片大海，从来都在经历风雨中发展壮大。从发展趋势看，我国经济韧性强、潜力大、活力足，长期向好的基本面没有改变。只要我们在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，坚定信心、保持定力、奋发作为，中国经济一定能战胜风险挑战，再上新台阶.

In the final section, Wang talks about promoting high-quality development. In doing so, he calls to:

• “Resolutely implement the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee, continuously promote the sustained improvement of economic operations, the continuous enhancement of endogenous growth momentum, the continuous improvement of social expectations, and the continuous resolution of hidden risks, and unwaveringly advance high-quality development.” 我们要坚决贯彻落实党中央决策部署，在攻坚克难中不断推动经济运行持续好转、内生动力持续增强、社会预期持续改善、风险隐患持续化解，坚定不移推动高质量发展.

• Implement targeted and effective macroeconomic regulation. Continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy; extend, optimise, improve, and effectively implement tax cuts and fee reduction policies. Effectively implement a prudent monetary policy, give full play to the role of aggregate and structural monetary policy tools, extend the implementation period of inclusive small and micro loan support tools, and continue to increase credit support for small and micro enterprises. Strongly support technological innovation, the real economy, and the development of small and micro enterprises, while stabilizing and lowering financing costs. Maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. 精准有力实施宏观调控。继续实施积极的财政政策，延续、优化、完善并落实好减税降费政策。有效实施稳健的货币政策，发挥总量和结构性货币政策工具作用，延长普惠小微贷款支持工具实施期限，继续加大对小微企业的信贷支持。大力支持科技创新、实体经济和中小微企业发展，推动融资成本稳中有降。保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。

• Increase the intensity of policies to promote consumption, and effectively expand consumption by increasing residents' income, improving income expectations, and enhancing consumer confidence. Promote the upgrading of the supply structure by expanding effective demand, and organically combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening supply-side structural reforms. Give full play to the leading role of government investment, activate the endogenous driving force of private investment, promote stable maintenance, expansion, and quality improvement of foreign investment, and strengthen the capital market and boost investor confidence. 积极扩大国内需求。加大促进消费的政策力度，通过增加居民收入、改善收入预期、增强消费信心有效扩大消费。通过扩大有效需求带动供给结构升级，把实施扩大内需战略同深化供给侧结构性改革有机结合起来。发挥政府投资的带动作用，激活民间投资内生动力，推动利用外资稳存量、扩增量、提质量，加力活跃资本市场，提振投资者信心.

• Vigorously promote the construction of a modern industrial system

• Continue to deepen reform and opening up. In this, he mentions the two unwaverings and the need to “encourage and attract more private capital to participate in the construction of major national projects and key industrial chain and supply chain projects”, along with setting up standardised mechanisms for engagement with enterprises. “Support qualified free trade pilot zones and free trade ports to connect with international high-standard economic and trade rules, and promote reform and opening up.” 持续深化改革开放。坚持“两个毫不动摇”，不断提高国有企业核心竞争力，切实回应民营企业关切，依法保护民营企业产权和企业家权益，优化民营企业发展环境。鼓励和吸引更多民间资本参与国家重大工程、重点产业链供应链项目建设。建立健全与企业的常态化沟通交流机制，增强政策针对性有效性。支持有条件的自贸试验区和自由贸易港对接国际高标准经贸规则，推动改革开放先行先试.

• Prevent and defuse risks in key areas. Adapt to the new situation where significant changes have taken place in the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market. Adjust and optimize real estate policies in a timely manner, use policy tools flexibly based on local needs to better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Effectively prevent and defuse local government debt risks, formulate and implement comprehensive debt-reduction plans, and promote reforms in relevant areas in a timely manner. Prudently handle the risks of small and medium-sized financial institutions, and steadily promote the reform of high-risk small and medium-sized financial institutions to eliminate risks. 防范化解重点领域风险。适应我国房地产市场供求关系发生重大变化的新形势，适时调整优化房地产政策，因城施策用好政策工具箱，更好满足居民刚性和改善性住房需求，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展。有效防范化解地方债务风险，制定实施一揽子化债方案，适时推进相关领域改革。稳妥处置中小金融机构风险，稳步推动高风险中小金融机构改革化险.

• Strengthen the protection of people's livelihood. In this, he talks about raising employment stability to a “strategic level.” “Implement the employment first policies and make dedicated efforts to manage employment for key groups such as college graduates.” 把稳就业提高到战略高度通盘考虑，落实强化就业优先政策，努力做好高校毕业生等重点群体就业工作. Wang also calls to “work hard to ensure the delivery of housing, ensure people’s livelihood and stability, and guarantee the bottom line of people’s livelihood.” 抓好保交楼、保民生、保稳定工作，兜牢兜实民生底线. He also talks about poverty alleviation, rural revitalisation and social security work.

Page 17: On the international page, the only pieces worth noting are criticisms of Japan’s plans to release Fukushima wastewater.